After the Juventus game, which was match week 11, we were on 27 points, 1 behind Juventus. What's happened since then?
Since the Juventus match, leading up to the final whistle of the Catania match today, we're now at 47 points. That means we've made 20 points in the mean time - in 16 matches. To compare to our rivals in that time, Napoli had 23 points, Fiorentina 21, Lazio 19, Roma 17, Catania 15, Milan 14. [Note: All information taken from http://www.worldfootball.net/spielpl...3-spieltag/11/ ]
Since then, Napoli have gone up to 23 - 30 points gained, Fiorentina 45 - 24 points gained, Milan 48 - 34 points gained, Roma 40 - 23 points gained, Lazio 47 - 28 points gained. Catania, despite their loss today, have gained 28 points as well.
As you can see, even after today's win, we are seriously lagging the competition. That is the reason for our propelling from 2nd to 6th.
If we work this out as a points per game ratio.....
Team.....Points per game
If we take this, extrapolate it over the remaining 11 serie A games, this will give us some points projections
Inter = 47+11*1.25 = 60.75
Napoli = 53 + 11*1.875 = 73.625
Fiorentina = 45 + 1.5*11 = 61.5
Milan = 48 + 11*2.125 = 71.375
Roma = 40+12*1.4375 = 57.25
Lazio = 47+11*1.75 = 66.25
Catania = 42+11*1.75 = 61.25
Under these projections, we finish under Juventus, Napoli (73-74), Milan (71-72), Lazio (66), Fiorentina(61-62), Catania (61). This puts us 7th in the league - which I believe is firmly out of Europe
Of course this average will also be skewed by our win against Catania just now - hopefully its the start of another winning streak, but if it isnt, expect our average to only go downhill from 1.25
If we go one step further and look who we're playing in the next few weeks
Inter v Bologna (we beat them 3-1 earlier this season, lets assume another win)
Sampdoria v Inter - We beat them earlier this season but I think things are very different now. I expect a loss here.
Inter v Juventus - well, its always hard to call a Derby, I personally think we'll win but being realistic lets project a draw.
Inter v Atalanta - we lost to them earlier this season, and with Livaja, they only look stronger. I expect a loss.
Cagliari v Inter - we drew with them 2-2 earlier this season, I can foresee another draw.
Inter v Parma - we lost to them 1-0 earlier, but I anticipate a draw here
Palermo v Inter - well, I'll be fucked if we cant beat Palermo. At the same time, our record with the bottom teams is atrocious. We beat them earlier this season, hoping for another win.
Napoli v Inter - Sorry, but I only see this going one way. Inter loss.
Inter v Lazio - Return of the Rocchi? Its hard to call, with Klose out. I would expect a draw, though
Genoa v Inter - Genoa are looking much better of late, but I think we'll have this.
Inter v Udinese - our season closer, they thrashed us 3-0 in Jan, and I expect us to lose this one.
Points : 3+0+1+0+1+1+3+0+1+3+0 = 12 points, which is only 1 under what I projected above.
Make your predictions, kids!
Full Serie A fixture list:
Matchweek Inter Points Juventus Points Napoli Points Milan Points Fiorentina Points Roma Points Catania Points Lazio Points 28 Bologna 0 Catania 3 Chievo 0 Genoa 3 Lazio 3 Udinese 1 Juventus 0 Fiorentia 0 29 Sampdoria Bologna 3 Atalanta 3 Palermo 3 Genoa 3 Parma 3 Udinese 3 Torino 0 30 Juventus Inter Torino Chievo Cagliari Palermo Lazio Catania 31 Atalanta Pescara Genoa Fiorentina Milan Lazio Cagliari Roma 32 Cagliari Lazio Milan Napoli Atalanta Torino Chievo Juventus 33 Parma Milan Cagliari Juventus Torino Pescara Palermo Udinese 34 Palermo Torino Pescara Catania Sampdoria Siena Milan Parma 35 Napoli Palermo Inter Torino Roma Fiorentina Siena Bologna 36 Lazio Atalanta Bologna Pescara Siena Chievo Sampdoria Inter 37 Genoa Cagliari Siena Roma Palermo Milan Pescara Sampdoria 38 Udinese Sampdoria Roma Siena Pescara Napoli Torino Cagliari Totals 47+ 59+ 53+ 48+ 45+ 43+ 42+ 47+