Inter Finance Guesstimate 2013/2014
Back by popular request....
For the season that has just finished we have posted (from preliminary media reports) a 77 million euro loss. PLEASE NOTE THAT THESE ARE GUESSTIMATES AND I RESERVE THE RIGHT TO BE VERY WRONG
I'm going to keep track of the upcoming transfer window and try and have a rough idea of how our finances will be affected by it.
So lets set our initial point:
With the loss of Rocchi, this means next year we will save 3.2million euros.
-77+3.2 = -73.8m euros
Loss of even Europa League will hurt us to about 5 million euros:
The signing of Silvestre on a 3 year contract represents another 2m loss a season, so this takes us to
Next year will also be affected by Kovacic's full amortization - which is approximately 3m a season.
-80.8 - 1.5m = -82.3m
The only significant sales so far are Donati and Caldirola, which represents approximately a 5.5m euro gain to book:
-82.3+5.5 = -76.8m euros
Now, we've also signed Campagnaro (~1.5m season salary x2 for tax) = -79.8m euros
Laxalt has cost us 2m for say 4 years, so we'll say thats a 500k loss as well, we'll just round it to -80m.
Andreolli is another free transfer - we'll say he's on 500k a season, or 1m including tax
Mudingayi is transferred outright, so at 750k euros over 2 years that's another -375k...
Now, the season ticket uptake has been good this year. It's a false economy because we've been offering HUGE discounts for people to take two years worth of season tickets. This means our books THIS year will be boosted, but we'll really fucking hurt for it next year. So lets say there's approximately +3m to gain in season tickets:
With the renewal of Zanetti and Samuel, I'll assume both players have halved their wages. This should save something like 4m a season:
Assuming Stankovic has been terminated, with a 1.5m golden handshake, with tax factored in, it represents approximately a 5m euro saving next year:
If Chivu is released, too, that'll save us about 4m a season:
We've sold Faraoni outright, we'll assume this is approximately a 3m book gain for us:
But with that, we've also signed Handanovic outright. This is about a 6m loss, but over 4 seasons is only -1.5m
If we loan Cassano and Silvestre to Parma, this represents something like a 5m + 4m wage savings, or approximately 8m:
With the signing of Belfodil, lets say on a 4 year contract, priced at 10m for half, this represents -2.5m a season:
As we can quite easily see, we need a huge sale from at least someone like Guarin or Handanovic to even have a chance of breaking within FFP for THIS SEASON alone - let alone last season's affects.
This also explains our current budgetary situation, with no real cash expenditure.
Why don't we take a few more steps of faith:
Isla in for 6m for 3 years.
Pereira out for 10m. 1 year into a 3 year contract gives us a book profit of +3.5m, with salary savings of approximately 4m.
Schelotto leaving for (say) 5m means a 2.5m/season wage saving and 7.5m/3.5 years = 2.2, 7.5-2.2 = 5.3, thus a 300k book loss on Schelotto:
-52.375+2.5-0.3 = -50.175m
If we break even on Jonathan (say 2-3m sale + loss of wages), this represents something like a +2m book affect, so:
Sale of Alvarez for 8m represents a 4m profit and +3.5m to book:
Not keeping Gargano (which I forgot to add in earlier) represents something like a 4m/season wage saving:
No sneijder on the books is approximately offset by the Kovacic transfer (since we only had Sneijder for half a season last year)
Releasing Kuzmanovic will probably save us like 1.5m-2m a season, in wages, we can assume its basically a book-neutral transfer:
This is only just speculation at the moment, of course, I hope to firm up these numbers as time goes, but we're going to need a miracle to save ourselves financially - to even come close to matching FFP we need this season's budget to be neutral, and next year to post a 32million euro profit...
The only way I can see us making that is through the sale of youngsters (Duncan, MBaye, Bessa for a combined 16-18m) and Guarin (20m), or the sale of Handanovic (30m) and maybe a bit more. Money is too tight to mention, and this is exactly why we haven't got any. It's trivially obvious to understand why we are fighting so hard for 1 million euros for Isla (for example), or why we don't want to sign Tassi outright, or why perhaps the rumours we were not prepared to debut Olsen arose at the end of last season (with a 500k clause rumoured if he debuted).
With this, don't be surprised to see Longo sold (theres potentially 6m to raise from him), Ranocchia (15m), perhaps even going higher to someone like Duncan or MBaye, maybe even Livaja or Bardi.
- - - Updated - - -
as a point, the 77m rumour is a recapitalization - it is not necessarily the same as the FFP loss value.
Originally Posted by ScottishInterista
This is a huge amount of work and I'm very interested to see what it looks like at the beginning of the season with all transfers taken into account (Including potential investment).
Will be checking this for updates and at the end of transfer season, thanks!
Y U NO estimate the club's other expenses as well in your calculation?
Personnel expenditure is just one of many expenses & you didn't mention the rest of the staff. They gotta eat too! But I can see why it's difficult to estimate, since nobody has that information... Hmm...
I do balance sheet analysis at the bank I work for (Our new sponsor ), & would love to get my hand on a football club's balance sheet. Shit must be interesting as fuck to check out their numbers.
Originally Posted by Armes
I think you're grossly over-estimating the club's sponsorship deal.
This is about relative change in the year - not absolute changes. There are too many things for me to hazardly guess at the absolute revenue and absolute expenditure. But wh at we can do is take the loss from last year and play with that.
Originally Posted by ScottishInterista