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Thread: Stocks

  1. #901
    Adriano@10's Avatar
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    24 10 years of FIF
    Am i the only one whos almost revealed that the recession is finally here?
    Exited my last positions this morning am now only holding bonds and cash, there might be a small rebound tomorrow but at this point it seems reasonable to assume that we re gonna see a recession at least for the first half year almost everywhere. Like italy is struggling and if it s in italy and in Lebanon there is no way its not in India, indonesia and vietnam i just think they ve been shit at detecting the virus.
    We re already seeing multiple german companies saying they re close to not having enough supply to keep production up. So again i think this is gonna ripple through all markets .

    I also fear that the supply restriction might lead to a perfect storm, if supply restriction is big enough and really affects all markets we might for the first time in a long time see inflation come back in developed economies which would put feds around the world in a hard place as they would need to lower rates to help companies keep production up and refinance or roll over the relative high debt they have right now to even lower interest rates. That would then be in direct competition to trying to keep inflation in check and increase interest rates. It s gonna be interesting for sure. Just make sure your buckled up and your risk profile is right and you might come out of this richer than you were before.

    Also talk to your guys in china and listen to what they say i only have two friends there and neither of them is in wuhan but they both barely leave their apartment and both have to work from home, this also made me quite sure that nothing is over.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

  2. #902
    ADRossi's Avatar
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    It's too early to declare a recession is here. Lol.

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  4. #903
    FIF MVP .h.'s Avatar
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    Read about the worlds worst times investor - keeping your holdings in during a recession is quite important tbh!

  5. #904
    Adriano@10's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ADRossi View Post
    It's too early to declare a recession is here. Lol.
    CHeck the industrial data GDP in q1 is gonna be bad thats already clear and again unless your naive one has to think that production will suffer at least till april .
    Now if we were not talking about an economy that was already overheating id agree with you but realistically speaking the economy was already running hot so that any small disruption could trigger a recession and this corona shit aint small thats for sure the good thing is that the chinese usually produce a lot of inventory before chinese new year which they can use now and yet european manufacturers are already running low on certain goods. Now before china gets back to 100% production we re gonna see supply problems there simply is no way around it and with jit production 1 week delay in supply will lead to a much greater delay in production. We might not feel it now but a supply restraint is gonna come sooner or later and with every day that china is not back to 100% production will get closer to a recession. Also i dont see how we can avoid a recession with china not producing and not consuming also.

    Technically it s not a recession yet but unless all of a sudden the virus disappears as fast as it came chances are high we re gonna get one.

    Quote Originally Posted by .h. View Post
    Read about the worlds worst times investor - keeping your holdings in during a recession is quite important tbh!
    I know timing the market is impossible but to not at least shift your holdings when you see this shit would be a bit stupid. Also this is only valid if your nicely diversified which most retail guys are not.

    Again i am on your side basically but in over 15 years of investing i ve never seen so many warning signs of shit hitting the fan. Again one could have argued before the virus that a recession is on the horizon with yields inverting and monetary policy having to intervene regularly in repo markets.
    And with all those other illnesses in the last couple of years i never sold any major holdings or went to cash but i fell this time it would be really stupid to not adjust for risk. Honestly i m surprised it too markets so long to react.

    But to me it seems insane to hold the market when it s shiller p/e is still above 30 and you have such a clear threat to earnings. For reference shillers P/e was only higher in 99 til 01 at 40 and in 18 at 33. It was even lower before the 08 crash. And it s not only shillers p/e we got other indicators that are flashing and are associated with a recession.

    Again i get your point and am with you but honestly i would have felt like an idiot going into this week holding stocks that rely heavily on chinese production or consumption.

    I mean if you entered 2000 holding intel and pet co you still would not have made up your losses on these two stocks. Dont take this as retail should sell but retail imho should also go risk off like i doubt anybody in retail holds a pofo that is nicely diversified.

    Edit: and now they are shutting down production facilities in south korea i know only partially and only for a day some but still. https://www.forbes.com/sites/donaldk.../#57afb20638a6
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

  6. #905
    FIF MVP .h.'s Avatar
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    I use vanguard. My profile is pretty well diverse as it is!

  7. #906
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    24 10 years of FIF
    https://www.cips.org/en/supply-manag...y-coronavirus/

    Sums up neatly why i think a recession is almost inevitable at this point. All the official statemenst we ve gotten from ceo s/Coo/CFos are something along those lines which is troubling.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

  8. #907
    crzdcolombian's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by .h. View Post
    Read about the worlds worst times investor - keeping your holdings in during a recession is quite important tbh!
    Lost 22k (unrealized) yesterday in my main account not bothering looking at the others!!

    I mean buying opportunities out there but the key is trying to time the market. China not being able to produce shit is going to fk everything and one over

    Man I knew I should have sold all my Walmart, Best Buy stock.
    VAR is some serious Bullshit!

  9. #908
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    24 10 years of FIF
    Nio up 26% after securing 10 bio in financing.....

    Also Tupperware 30% down it now trades at 1.35 forward earnings and almost a 30% div rate.
    But they gave out a profit warning due to corona and if they cant sell in china for a prolonged time they gonna run into problems servicing their debt.
    Still at a price of 3.60 it might be worth the risk as in if they avoid bankruptcy then this is a huge bargain.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

  10. #909
    crzdcolombian's Avatar
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    Radamel Fkingco

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    If anyone has any argie stocks sell
    Them. They are about to default for the 9th time unless China bails them out
    VAR is some serious Bullshit!

  11. #910
    Wobblz's Avatar
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    Who in their right mind would have anything to do with Argentinian stocks?
    Inter is an artistic venture, almost poetic. It is capable of provoking immense, unreachable joy and bitter disappointment. Itís never done by half-measures.
    For me, Inter is the opening to new worlds and courage. Itís a strong passion, a marvellous illness. You can put up with the weaknesses and admire the courage, the same way you would with a son.
    ó Massimo Moratti


  12. #911
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wobblz View Post
    Who in their right mind would have anything to do with Argentinian stocks?
    I mean, I'm sure I have some in my indexed South American fund

  13. #912
    crzdcolombian's Avatar
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    Radamel Fkingco

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    Quote Originally Posted by ADRossi View Post
    I mean, I'm sure I have some in my indexed South American fund
    I have a lot of Colombian stocks... currently I have a 0.005% gain haha after 3 years

    That is why I only invest in USA

    BBVA down 40%
    BCS same
    Santander bought 400 shares in 2010. Now have 1,100 shares. They give a crazy dividend.... but still barely breaking even
    VAR is some serious Bullshit!

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