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  1. #821
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    Thanks for your view on this

    Im only into Chinese tech stocks and my assumption of the Chinese growth numbers are only based on this specific sector. I don't speak mandarin at all and the information I read is often based on third parts which makes it challenging to see the big picture. Chinas debt is definitely rising and the state has already cut down different subsidies. Just take a look on Nio. China has had a booming EV market but it might slow down now. It will be interesting to see if Tesla can make use of this with their recently built factory in China. So yeah I'm not as sceptical as you are but you might be right that the growth numbers when talking about all the sectors will decrease. However we are talking about an economy with a population of more than 1b which still in that case makes it interesting to follow and invest in.

    The tariff war has definitely had a negative impact and I'm sure an US election year like this will help on this. Trump might want to sign a deal as a way to portrait himself as a man with "big solutions" and I think the Chinese government are more interested in making a deal with Trump rather than a possible democrat simply because the democrats possibly would include different welfare related topics into the agreement. The Hong Kong riots may be into the discussions if this and Im sure the Chinese government has no interest in this. We will see. 2020 just seems to be more stable in terms of international politics with Brexit finally done, Trump hopefully spending his time on intern US politics resulting in a less critical opinion on China globally. Again, we will see if my assumptions are right or wrong.

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  3. #822
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    Last edited by Pimpin; 05 Jan 20 at 10:03.
    Quote Originally Posted by bandiera View Post
    referees 'without question' favour juve? i think youre overstating the effect of buying out the refs.
    On Brozovic:
    Quote Originally Posted by nurko View Post
    He's like bitcoin in January, sell him on a high while you can.

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  5. #823
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    NIO up with +50% today due to a much better Q3 report than expected.
    Last edited by J..; 30 Dec 19 at 22:33.


  6. #824
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    Quote Originally Posted by J.. View Post
    NIO up with +50% today due to a much better Q3 report than expected.
    Yap and today they made another 10%. I m still on the sideline though that 50% price hike puts them in a similar region as tesla when you use revenue measures. Even though i think they re closer to profitability and the chinese will probably make sure that their EV s gonna survive as in i expect them to get more support from the state than tesla will get.
    Their growth numbers look more promising and more credible then tesla though.
    I d wait to enter for q4 though historically speaking their q4 has been disappointing more often then not and the chinese new year usually pushes sales down.

    Things i like about them theres still room for growth 3 bio market cap tesla for example is already at 76 which is very close to VW the biggest car producer in the world at 90 so for tesla to have any further growth they have t capture huge parts of the market which i dont see happening. Nio on the other hand even if they grow to a modest 6 bio market cap you ll have made a nice profit and them dominating the asian premium ev markets would be enough for that which i think is likely especially with the chinese finding a new pride in their own products. There s a trend to buy local products where as 5 years ago if you could afford it you d buy foreign products.

    The thing that for me is the biggest challenge in the EV market and the hardest to judge is who has the best batteries and where do they come from. Cause honestly building an electric car is easy whats hard is getting efficient long lasting sustainable batteries and i think in the long term a bettery producer will probably profit more from the ev market than any car maker if they can differentiate themselfes with quality batteries.
    I mean I dont know who out of samsung, panasonic, north volt, CATL, LG chem, BYD. And it s incredibly hard to determine but i really think the batteries are gonna be more important than all the rest of the cars as they are the most technical part.
    WHo ever out of them is gonna come first with a solid state battery is gonna take huge parts of the market cause if we re honest with our selfes thats what we need to even be capable to electrify all the cars. WHat makes it so hard to find who of the battery makers is in front is that many big carmakers work with multiple of them VW for example has cooperations with all of them except for byd and panasonic.....
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
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  8. #825
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    Just in case anyboy on here owns tesla shares sell those shits as long as they are over 400. ANything short of them becoming the biggest car producer in the world within the next 10 years will leave investors at a loss at current pricing and i really dont see that happening.

    Since i still here idiots talking about buying tesla or not selling them @ current prices i just gently wanted to remind to say to anybody who owns them any rational investor would sell at current prices. and that comes from a dude who likes tesla( or lets say who likes their products).

    Once again musk seemingly is deceiving uneducated investors with his order numbers of the cyber truck and his promises of times to market that he cannot keep.
    Again i like the guy but he s a terrible ceo for investors and if it was not for the hype around his person he would have been fined for misleading investors on multiple occasions but somehow he keeps on getting away with it.

    Last but not least it seems like tesla customers as well as tesla shareholders are very similar to apple fan boy as in they ll defend the product and the company no matter what which is why i can see this fucking bs still go on for some time. Like he keeps on promising how fast they re gonna be to market and how fast they re gonna reach production goals and so on and he missed every single one of them yet every time he makes such a baseless promise the fucken stock jumps.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

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    I got my wife a model 3.... the paint on it is chipping. Glad it’s a lease

    But yea sell that shit especially if you bought it when it tanked a year or 2 ago when someone mentioned the stock
    VAR is some serious Bullshit!

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    It's difficult to rate Tesla. It is often a huge advantage to be a first mover commercially on a market and especially tech-wise as all the data gathered from their cars is very valuable. However they don't generate much profit and I'm pretty sure the other carmakers (probably German and perhaps Chinese brands) will at some point destroy Tesla but the question is how many years it will take due to the gathered data. Cars are not just metallic cases anymore but much more similar to when a telephone went from being a device you could use you to call with and to the sort of device we have today. AI and IOT will definetely be a part of the future cars.

    Its funny. I don't know how many people die each year in car accidents in the US due to driver errors but we are talking about a lot of people. However if a self-driving car (AV) is involved in an accident then it is handled like it is something exceptionally and all kinds of lawsuits will for sure be made. That's why only few AVs are being allowed to be driven in the public in the US even through gathering data is very important as a way to improve AI. Simply because an accident due to an AV is worse than one due to a human error. No matter if a human error happens way more often.

    In China they don't think in this way as an accident due to an AV is not any worse than an accident due to an error made by a human driver. It seems to be regarded as the same. That's why Baidu and other Chinese tech companies are allowed to use their AVs a lot more in the public compared to the US companies and that's why I think the Chinese carmakers in cooperation with the Chinese AI tech companies might have a chance to succeed in the long term. We will see.

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  14. #828
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    Quote Originally Posted by J.. View Post
    It's difficult to rate Tesla. It is often a huge advantage to be a first mover commercially on a market and especially tech-wise as all the data gathered from their cars is very valuable. However they don't generate much profit and I'm pretty sure the other carmakers (probably German and perhaps Chinese brands) will at some point destroy Tesla but the question is how many years it will take due to the gathered data. Cars are not just metallic cases anymore but much more similar to when a telephone went from being a device you could use you to call with and to the sort of device we have today. AI and IOT will definetely be a part of the future cars.
    Meh the advantage Imho gets heavily overstated first of all Electric engines are a lot easier to produce then ICE s. Then all that tech you are alluding to the traditional car brands already have my sis has a 3 years old VW golf it can park it selfe, when your driving over 60kmh it basicaly drives on its own if you turn on all the sensors and if it was not for a warn signal every 5 secs you dont touch the stering wheel you would not need to do a thing. Yes i know thats not technically self driving but al that is missing is the software that guides the car all the sensors and everything else that is necessary to keep lanes and avoid collisions is already in there. On the data advantage it s very questionable wether Google or Tesla has the upper hand tesla has more data yes but google has ore data of actual self driving Cars. so again hard to tell who has the upper hand there.

    Plus again my beef is not with tesla as a company it s with its valuation unless it becomes the 3rd largest car producer or it develops the only selfdriving software that works or it becomes the best battery producer it can never justify it s current valuation. Cause right at this moment they are the 3rd biggest car producer when going by market cap which is insane in a market where scalability is limited.


    Quote Originally Posted by J.. View Post
    Its funny. I don't know how many people die each year in car accidents in the US due to driver errors but we are talking about a lot of people. However if a self-driving car (AV) is involved in an accident then it is handled like it is something exceptionally and all kinds of lawsuits will for sure be made. That's why only few AVs are being allowed to be driven in the public in the US even through gathering data is very important as a way to improve AI. Simply because an accident due to an AV is worse than one due to a human error. No matter if a human error happens way more often.
    It s a funny phenomenon and is very neatly described in thinking fast and slow (great book), it s basically down to the humans tendency to overestimate ones ability. If you hear about a accident made by another driver you might think if you were in that situation your reactions would have avoided the crash. You cannot make such a mental leap when it comes to things that are not in your control. Same principle applies to flying it s safer than driving a car yet more people are afraid of it.

    Quote Originally Posted by J.. View Post
    In China they don't think in this way as an accident due to an AV is not any worse than an accident due to an error made by a human driver. It seems to be regarded as the same. That's why Baidu and other Chinese tech companies are allowed to use their AVs a lot more in the public compared to the US companies and that's why I think the Chinese carmakers in cooperation with the Chinese AI tech companies might have a chance to succeed in the long term. We will see.
    I d argue that the main reason behind this is that the chinese wanna catch up they never caught up with western car producers in terms of ICE s this is their chance to close the gap with a new up end coming technology. Pretty sure the outrage around a selfdriving accident is also bigger in china than the outrage for a normal accident.


    Btw prologium presented a solid state battery at the CES that is Smaller than teslas current model 3 battery 30% more efficient and it charges faster.......
    Sadly their still a private company.....

    Also at the CES Mercedes presented a prototype with a battery that does not use rare earth materials and is compostable and even that battery had a higher energy density than Teslas yet people are acting like there s only tesla in the ev space..

    I m not saying you cannot still make money of tesla but i highly doubt there s much growth left in that stock even if execution would be perfect.
    Last edited by Adriano@10; 13 Jan 20 at 12:24.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
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  16. #829
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    Fun Fact: Waymo has more miles driven than all competitors combined, and with better safety record than tesla. If you think Tesla has the advantage on AI against Google, I want whatever that's being smoken. I won't even get into mapping/computing power.

    Quote Originally Posted by bandiera View Post
    referees 'without question' favour juve? i think youre overstating the effect of buying out the refs.
    On Brozovic:
    Quote Originally Posted by nurko View Post
    He's like bitcoin in January, sell him on a high while you can.

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  18. #830
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pimpin View Post
    Fun Fact: Waymo has more miles driven than all competitors combined, and with better safety record than tesla. If you think Tesla has the advantage on AI against Google, I want whatever that's being smoken. I won't even get into mapping/computing power.

    Exactly!! Only thing that tesla has is the most cars that could theoretically self drive on the street but many of them are not allowed to even turn that function on and it s questionable how valuable that data is compared to waymos actual self driving cars.
    Also that data is from 2018 waymo has doubled the cars on the street since they got the permission in cali.

    To be honest i think google could roll out a self driving software that works pretty well tomorrow. I still think the many thing standing in the way of that is regulation. Yet for some odd reason tesla is at 524 and that idiot kramer screams into that screens it s a buy and should go to 1000$ WTF?
    It s as if these people forgot about fundamentals.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

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  20. #831
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    Canopy Growth is looking better and better but Aurora looking like shit. I hope Aurora is like before Tesla exploaded. Thankfully more of my money was invested into Canopy.
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  22. #832
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    Quote Originally Posted by Candreva Crosses View Post
    Canopy Growth is looking better and better but Aurora looking like shit. I hope Aurora is like before Tesla exploaded. Thankfully more of my money was invested into Canopy.
    Yeah that organigram earnings beat boosted the whole market. Might revers quickly though if any of the big guys miss out on earnings.
    On aurora i mean they made 14% yesterday and are up another 5% pre market. Then again if you got in at 6 there s still a long way to go. I d guess that aurora needs to beat expectations them selfes in order to get up there again.

    Also as i said before IMHO the tesla up tick is all hype, their the number 1 followed and bought stock on robinhod app and cramer just fueled the hype with his buy signal and his price target of 1000$. Btw thats the same guy who was saying it s a sell at 200$ yet people follow that idiot as if it was buffet speaking.

    Anyways i d not expect such a big hype to come back to the weed market unless we get a lot of beats in this Q. Imho the hyoe around the weed stocks died down and we re way closer to a valuation that takes fundamentals into account. Anyways i d not expect to see a crayze like we see it around tesla these days.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

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  24. #833
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    John krafcik Waymos ceo on self driving: https://fortune.com/2020/01/07/googl...omous-driving/
    It s only a 26 mins video but it gives an idea of Googles vision of self driving.
    Also Krafcik takes a dig at tesla saying there s a huge difference between actual self driving cars and cars with drivers assistance but where the driver still needs to pay attention.

    It also becomes clear that google (wayo) has no intention of building their own cars they only wanna provide the driver(self driving software).
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

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    What is the profit margin on cars? Also the libility of a self driving car. Some idiot will crash into one and blame the self driving tech.

    I mean I know all the US car markers stocks are worthless because of pensions and union jobs let people make 30-40 an hour to not do anything. But for a company like google, samsung and Apple to get into it. What is their upside they like to make 30%+ margins off their services and phones.
    VAR is some serious Bullshit!

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    Quote Originally Posted by crzdcolombian View Post
    What is the profit margin on cars? Also the libility of a self driving car. Some idiot will crash into one and blame the self driving tech.
    All of those technologies rely on millions of sensor inputs and data points, self-driving cars will have a black box basically, which won't allow anyone to try to blame the car for a crash. If you were using some trick to fool the system so it believes your hands are on the wheel, then again, you're taking the blame for anything it does during that time.
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  28. #836
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    Quote Originally Posted by crzdcolombian View Post
    What is the profit margin on cars? Also the libility of a self driving car. Some idiot will crash into one and blame the self driving tech.

    I mean I know all the US car markers stocks are worthless because of pensions and union jobs let people make 30-40 an hour to not do anything. But for a company like google, samsung and Apple to get into it. What is their upside they like to make 30%+ margins off their services and phones.
    Well on the accidents google is aware of that and thats why they are deploying very slowly, think about it they made the first self driving ride in 2010 in SF. Thats what 3 years before the first tesla was sold? So you can see they been in this for a longer time than most think and they also seem to be aware that they need regulation on their side.

    On the profitability Krafcik on the IAA in dez 19 made the point that currently average car price is 30k and the average profit is 1.500 usd which is about 5 % which is not great but not that bad. But when you spread it over the life time of the car it s only 1 cent per mile driven which is horrible. SO they see a huge opportunity in cars as a service where you could charge well more than 1 cent per mile and passengers would still be very happy with the costs of the service.
    I also have to state that he said they wont build cars they build a driver that can then be bought by traditional car makers. Basically an android for cars that can also drive the car.
    And again once you developed that driver scaling it will be easy as it should function in any car brand and any car type from semis to smarts with very little adaption. They also already have partnerships with FCA (and peugeot now) and nissan renault as well as land rover so they are already trying out their software on different hardware if you wanna call it like that.

    So i d argue that in the end waymos margins are gonna be around that 30% mark once they sell the software.

    Quote Originally Posted by Wobblz View Post
    All of those technologies rely on millions of sensor inputs and data points, self-driving cars will have a black box basically, which won't allow anyone to try to blame the car for a crash. If you were using some trick to fool the system so it believes your hands are on the wheel, then again, you're taking the blame for anything it does during that time.
    Just to make it clear when i m talking self driving i m talking self driving as in there is no way the driver can grab the steering wheel and steer the car (if there eve is a steering wheel). Todays Waymos that are driving in phenix will pull over and stop the ride if you try to grab/grab the steering wheel.
    I d also argue that if a sensor is blocked that car would probably notice and not start.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
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  30. #837
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    Talking about AVs. I recommend this video. Its in Mandarin but it has English subs. https://youtu.be/ThlyIBP5qSQ

    Also take a look on the Russian company Yandex as there are multiple videos out there showing how their AV tech works. This is just one of them. https://youtu.be/gfWjsKsEry0

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  32. #838
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    Quote Originally Posted by J.. View Post
    Talking about AVs. I recommend this video. Its in Mandarin but it has English subs. https://youtu.be/ThlyIBP5qSQ

    Also take a look on the Russian company Yandex as there are multiple videos out there showing how their AV tech works. This is just one of them. https://youtu.be/gfWjsKsEry0
    Problem with the chinese is it s always hard to determine how far they really are. I remember some hype around a self driving bus a couple of years ago turns out that the bus could only drive the track that was pre determined in the video and that everything else was bs.

    On Yandex it s impressive but just remember that google did exactly this in 2010, driving a predetermined route without driver. And they ve been working hard on it ever since under the waymo brand.

    I m not saying it s impossible for any of these other brands to be successful but if you realize that google was actually the first who did this and they re also the first to have fully self driving cars on public roads that can be used by the public it s just hard to imagine anybody else getting to market first. Especially if you consider that google has probably the best AI of all the companies involved and they can actually afford to burn a shit tonn of cash cause their core business is already a cash cow.

    Imho many are confused because waymo does not do to many marketing stunts like tesla and musk do, i mean most of the public thinks tesla is leading in that race when google had a functioning self driving car before tesla even produced a single car.


    Again it s very possible that i m wrong but i just dont see how anybody could beat the first mover who has a shit ton of cash to burn and a technological advantage over the rest of the field.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
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  34. #839
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    I agree with you that it is definitely difficult to know how far the Chinese truly has become. However I dont think Google is that fair ahead as most of us in the west believes. Take this article as an example as Baidu recently won a competition ahead of Google and Microsoft. It tells me not to underrated them. https://amp.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/a...human-language

    The whole AI and AV will probably when its truly applied become a very political discussion just as it is with Huawei, 5G and the US. The western world will mostly stick to Google, Amazon, Microsoft ect. Meanwhile most of the east and perhaps the developing countries in Africa will choose the side of China. Thats Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba, Sogou ect. Perhaps Sea Ltd too.
    Thats why I dont believe we can talk about the importance of being the first mover on this as it will get very political.

    Will the US allow Chinese AI to be installed in cars ect. In the US? I dont think so.

    The same goes the other way with US tech in China as the Chinese gov will control it all by themself.

    The tech world is divided to day and will stay so for a very long time. My only point is that I think most people in the western part of the world are underrating the Chinese tech companies. Im not saying they are better or not just that they arent much behind. China has the advantage of having a government who is very interested in monitoring its citizens lives and are therefore spending alot of money on AI and tech. Take the social credit system as the best example. https://youtu.be/0cGB8dCDf3c

    Google vs the Chinese gov in terms of spending. Thats the reality.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I agree with you about Yandex as I dont see them as having much to do in the future. I could easily see them in a collaboration with the Chinese on this at some point as a movement against the US.

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  36. #840
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    24 10 years of FIF
    Quote Originally Posted by J.. View Post
    I agree with you that it is definitely difficult to know how far the Chinese truly has become. However I dont think Google is that fair ahead as most of us in the west believes. Take this article as an example as Baidu recently won a competition ahead of Google and Microsoft. It tells me not to underrated them. https://amp.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/a...human-language

    The whole AI and AV will probably when its truly applied become a very political discussion just as it is with Huawei, 5G and the US. The western world will mostly stick to Google, Amazon, Microsoft ect. Meanwhile most of the east and perhaps the developing countries in Africa will choose the side of China. Thats Baidu, Tencent, Alibaba, Sogou ect. Perhaps Sea Ltd too.
    Thats why I dont believe we can talk about the importance of being the first mover on this as it will get very political.

    Will the US allow Chinese AI to be installed in cars ect. In the US? I dont think so.

    The same goes the other way with US tech in China as the Chinese gov will control it all by themself.

    The tech world is divided to day and will stay so for a very long time. My only point is that I think most people in the western part of the world are underrating the Chinese tech companies. Im not saying they are better or not just that they arent much behind. China has the advantage of having a government who is very interested in monitoring its citizens lives and are therefore spending alot of money on AI and tech. Take the social credit system as the best example. https://youtu.be/0cGB8dCDf3c

    Google vs the Chinese gov in terms of spending. Thats the reality.

    - - - Updated - - -

    I agree with you about Yandex as I dont see them as having much to do in the future. I could easily see them in a collaboration with the Chinese on this at some point as a movement against the US.
    Fully agree that it s gonna be a political thing and the chinese are probably not gonna let the us in and vice versa. And i do think that the program will have to be tested and tried in most countries before they ll allow anybody to run it. So i would not be surprised if a chinese company probably baidu will rule the chinese market and probably some others, but in the west my money would 100% be on google.

    One big further question is gonna be how the eventually interactions of two different driving systems will work on public roads.
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  37. Thanks (2): J.., MVD

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