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  1. #781
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    To be fair this might be like 2nd time in my wholetime that i've heard of them, so I do not know much about them.

    Usually I asses restaurants/foodchains from reading on them initially (if they have new process or something along those lines, or fastg rowth good margins), then eating there, and seeing firsthand if they serve something that is worthy of growth/disruption.
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    referees 'without question' favour juve? i think youre overstating the effect of buying out the refs.
    On Brozovic:
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    He's like bitcoin in January, sell him on a high while you can.

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  3. #782
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    I'm thinking to put down 15kdollars on Canopy now. Anybody here who would rather go with Aurora? If so please tell me why.
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    It does. It has a lot of quality. I would say even Serie B has a lot of quality. Professional footballers really know how to play the game.
    Quote Originally Posted by Universe View Post
    6 Italian sides in Europe. 1 win, 2 draw, 3 losses

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  5. #783
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    24 10 years of FIF
    Quote Originally Posted by Candreva Crosses View Post
    I'm thinking to put down 15kdollars on Canopy now. Anybody here who would rather go with Aurora? If so please tell me why.
    Mhh it depends i guess. As i said many times i prefer Canopy but since firing linton it seems like they are a bit all over the place and the execution of their inital vision is a bit in doubt imho. On the leadership level there still is a lot of doubt wether zeukelin will carry on as ceo or take a step back like he initally said when Linton was fired. So i guess In canopy there is quite some management doubt as to who do they appoint next and will he be the right one to execute on their strategy. Overall i think that canopys valuation atm is pretty fair when i got in this was the price (25 to 30 cad) i expected 2 to 3 years down the road. Personally their still my favourite cause of their scale and their global footprint.

    Now to Aurora when you strictly look at the financials they are the cheaper company/Stock atm. As in their price to revenue their growth rates their loss per share would indicate they are the cheaper stock right now and they have a higher rev growth as of now. My only problem with them is that they limit themselfes to the medical market.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

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  7. #784
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adriano@10 View Post
    Mhh it depends i guess. As i said many times i prefer Canopy but since firing linton it seems like they are a bit all over the place and the execution of their inital vision is a bit in doubt imho. On the leadership level there still is a lot of doubt wether zeukelin will carry on as ceo or take a step back like he initally said when Linton was fired. So i guess In canopy there is quite some management doubt as to who do they appoint next and will he be the right one to execute on their strategy. Overall i think that canopys valuation atm is pretty fair when i got in this was the price (25 to 30 cad) i expected 2 to 3 years down the road. Personally their still my favourite cause of their scale and their global footprint.

    Now to Aurora when you strictly look at the financials they are the cheaper company/Stock atm. As in their price to revenue their growth rates their loss per share would indicate they are the cheaper stock right now and they have a higher rev growth as of now. My only problem with them is that they limit themselfes to the medical market.
    Thanks man! I luckily invested yesterday since they went up 12% today.
    Quote Originally Posted by wera View Post
    It does. It has a lot of quality. I would say even Serie B has a lot of quality. Professional footballers really know how to play the game.
    Quote Originally Posted by Universe View Post
    6 Italian sides in Europe. 1 win, 2 draw, 3 losses

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  9. #785
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    Quote Originally Posted by Candreva Crosses View Post
    Thanks man! I luckily invested yesterday since they went up 12% today.
    Nice hand there, dude. Congrats

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  11. #786
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    Quote Originally Posted by Candreva Crosses View Post
    Thanks man! I luckily invested yesterday since they went up 12% today.
    No worries although i guess it did not help much, when i saw the prices i was like hopefully CC just went ahead and put down that money, fucking masterclass in timing congrats.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

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  13. #787
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    24 10 years of FIF
    I m still pretty intrigued by the whole prosus naspers and tencent valuation.

    Prosus currently still trades at a 9% discount to just it s stake in tencent, that is if you value all their other businesses at 0 their market cap is still lower then the value of the 31% they hold in tencent. And it s not like prosus only owns worthless stakes in other companies. They got some big bets in the food delivery industry Deliveryhero/takeaway.com and more and you ll also get exposure to udemi and a couple of other e learning platforms that are growing quite nicely plus a 6% stake in ctrip (chinese answer to expedia). So unless you think tencent is massively overvalued prosus might be a very nice investment.

    Only thing that is holding me back to put my money in Prosus is that Naspers the parent of prosus and still owner of 75% of their shares trades at an even bigger discount!

    Naspers currently trades roughly at a 30% discount of it s ownership in Tencent and again on top of that yu get 75% of the other prosus holdings plus a piece of the biggest media company in africa as well as the biggest online retailer in SA.

    Only problem here is that Naspers is either traded otc or in jo burg and in ZAR which is a bit inconvenient for investors that are not from SA as they usually dont have direct access to those markets hence execution becomes slower and more pricey. This also can be used to explain some of the price difference but no way should it account for a 30%+ discount.

    I know tencent is facing some growth problems but for me the opportunity just seems to tempting. As again i think both naspers and Prosus have other companies in their portfolio that are very interesting.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

  14. #788
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adriano@10 View Post
    I m still pretty intrigued by the whole prosus naspers and tencent valuation.

    Prosus currently still trades at a 9% discount to just it s stake in tencent, that is if you value all their other businesses at 0 their market cap is still lower then the value of the 31% they hold in tencent. And it s not like prosus only owns worthless stakes in other companies. They got some big bets in the food delivery industry Deliveryhero/takeaway.com and more and you ll also get exposure to udemi and a couple of other e learning platforms that are growing quite nicely plus a 6% stake in ctrip (chinese answer to expedia). So unless you think tencent is massively overvalued prosus might be a very nice investment.

    Only thing that is holding me back to put my money in Prosus is that Naspers the parent of prosus and still owner of 75% of their shares trades at an even bigger discount!

    Naspers currently trades roughly at a 30% discount of it s ownership in Tencent and again on top of that yu get 75% of the other prosus holdings plus a piece of the biggest media company in africa as well as the biggest online retailer in SA.

    Only problem here is that Naspers is either traded otc or in jo burg and in ZAR which is a bit inconvenient for investors that are not from SA as they usually dont have direct access to those markets hence execution becomes slower and more pricey. This also can be used to explain some of the price difference but no way should it account for a 30%+ discount.

    I know tencent is facing some growth problems but for me the opportunity just seems to tempting. As again i think both naspers and Prosus have other companies in their portfolio that are very interesting.
    I was literally coming here to ask about your thoughts on tencent. A lot if big gaming franchises are coming to them to bring their games to mobile.

    Also Ubisoft had an awful year and stock price is down, is there a chance there?

  15. #789
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    24 10 years of FIF
    Quote Originally Posted by Harpsabu View Post
    I was literally coming here to ask about your thoughts on tencent. A lot if big gaming franchises are coming to them to bring their games to mobile.

    Also Ubisoft had an awful year and stock price is down, is there a chance there?
    So first of i just opened a position in prosus this morning when they were trading under 60 Euros. Then i went on to read Tencents Q3 report which was released today and which had a neg impact on their stock.

    Now let me start with the more general things first of i like tencent, Imho they are in some nice business fields they showed that within tech they can move from one field to the other seemingly without any problems. Their mgm had some great executions and showed a lot of vision with the new markets they entered and also proved that they are more than capable to execute. I also feel like its a bit of a double sided sword as in there is some additional risk with them being a chinese company as we now see with the NBA fall out and tencent not being sure where they can show nba games witht any repercussions.
    On the other hand due to being in china many of their platforms are protected from competition as there are not many competitors within china and the regim wont let FB,goog, amaz just do what ever they d like to do. I also think that within gaming, social media and fintech the chinese market will probably grow a lot faster than the us or european market as there still is more untapped potential.

    Overall i think Tencent has pretty much the same problems as all the big tech guys one is they are a bit all over the place, as in they do cloud services they do social platforms they do gaming they do fintech.... now for me as an investor it s very hard to judge who s gonna come out on top in those fields especially in the new ones but i m sure that not al of baba, amazon, tencent, Fb, google and usually some more specialized companies can all win in the same sector so eventually some consolidation will come. Again i think tencent is better of than it s american competitors just cause of the political situation in china.

    In terms of Valuation Tencent is also right there as in their P/E is at 30.9 their rev growth at 35%, which when compared to FB that is at 23 P/e and a 26% rev growth google at 28 P/e and 25% rev growth. I think that is all pretty much in line for the industry.

    None of those companies are cheap but they also all are growing nicely so i would not call any of the a bargain but tencent could still be a very good investment. But as i ve mentioned several times those stocks with high P/e will probably suffer the most in a down turn and i m still not convinced that we re in the green.

    As you said the business with taking real games to mobile seems to be a huge possibility for them just look at call of duty mobile has been a huge success just in the first month. Again i m not sure what advantages tencent has over the competition when converting games to mobile but they seem to be the prefered destination.

    Bottom line imho a very well run company that comes at a slight premium but growth figures seem to justify that premium also if you want to eter that market you ll simply have to pay a premium atm.

    Just shortly if your really seriously think about making your investment through prosus you ll get the advantage of the title being traded when you are actually awake plus as i mentioned before you ll get a 10% discount on the tencent stake on top of that 6 companies that are publicly traded or in their final funding round and are already valued north of 1 bio and in all of those companies tencent has at least a 20% stake but thats not all you ll get exposure to another 41 companies all valued above 100 mio and all of that for less then what the tencent stake alone would be worth. Again unless you believe all these other companies are just destroying value are are growing at a way slower pace then tencent on a stand alone basis that discount makes 0 sense.

    Last but not least their q3 Report was a bit weird as in their IFRS numbers were pretty disappointing but there non ifr umbers were pretty much in line with expectations. Now a big part of that can be because they just switch to IFRS this year so the y/y comparisons are gonna be off but it s still a bit worrying. That being said i shortly went over the notes of their financial statements and i could not find any red flags that would point to false accounting or meddling with the numbers. But again i only went over it shortly so i might have missed something if it s well hidden in the details will go over it these coming days and let you know.

    NOW to ubisoft honestly i dont think they are a bargain.they probably are gonna end the year with a loss at least thats the consensu right now and even if i value them based on their last EPS of 1.18 they still trade at almost 50 times EPS which is the same as ttwo adn way higher than Nintendo and EA and even activision blizzard. SO unless you expect an immediate recovery i dont think it s a good buy.

    I personally believe that the success of game company depends a lot on their franchises and how they handle them.
    Now with ubisoft these would be: tom clancys, Watchdog, Far cry, just dance assasins creed and anno right?
    now imho ubisoft has butchered most of them with either to many releases with little changes(assasins creed) and some of them while good they just canot quite keep up with what the competition puts out (far cry/watchdogs). Imho tom clancys and just dance are pretty good cash cows for them but even with the tom clancys it s just a bit too many games.

    Like compare what ubisoft did with assasins/far cry creed and what ttwo did with GTA while the former are very good games and have good sales they are nowhere near to a must have blockbuster game that is released once every 5/6 years and then just generates fucking tons of cash with a couple of updates every now and then. Imho they dont have that GTA that WOW/LOL or that NBA2k/ FIfa that just generates cash with little twists.

    That all being said i m not to familiar with ubisoft so i might be unaware of some products that will come down the line i also cannot really judge their mgm. On a puerly technical analysis you could have a point but in terms of longterm investment i do not think it s a good idea.

    Hope that helped also feel free to ask if something is not clear i m never quite sure how technical i can get on fif.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte


  16. #790
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    Canopy getting fucken smashed after another miss on revenue and eps. I just listened to the conference call and honestly it did not sound that bad. and i m very tempted to go in as long as it stays at 15 usd.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

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    Quote Originally Posted by Adriano@10 View Post
    Canopy getting fucken smashed after another miss on revenue and eps. I just listened to the conference call and honestly it did not sound that bad. and i m very tempted to go in as long as it stays at 15 usd.
    It's crazy how those numbers effects the whole industry. For example Tilray itself had decent numbers and is down nearly 9%.


    Very curious / nervous about Aurora's numbers which should be published every moment now,

  18. #792
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    24 10 years of FIF
    Quote Originally Posted by German_Interista View Post
    It's crazy how those numbers effects the whole industry. For example Tilray itself had decent numbers and is down nearly 9%.


    Very curious / nervous about Aurora's numbers which should be published every moment now,
    Well canopy is the biggest player!
    Also basically what they outlined in their earnings call is that they need the law to move forward in order to start being profitable, as in they need store openings in ontario to move forward and that at a rate of 40 stores per month.

    So i guess canopys concerns/problems currently are the same problems as the whole industry faces.

    So to be honest as of now i m more curios as t what the number in q4 are gonna be, as they expect ontario to start licencing new stores beginning in jan.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

  19. #793
    Candreva Crosses's Avatar
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    Yeah, it feels like investing in something other than Canopy is stupid. If Canopy goes down then the whole sector follows. Very weird?
    Quote Originally Posted by wera View Post
    It does. It has a lot of quality. I would say even Serie B has a lot of quality. Professional footballers really know how to play the game.
    Quote Originally Posted by Universe View Post
    6 Italian sides in Europe. 1 win, 2 draw, 3 losses

  20. #794
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    24 10 years of FIF
    Quote Originally Posted by Candreva Crosses View Post
    Yeah, it feels like investing in something other than Canopy is stupid. If Canopy goes down then the whole sector follows. Very weird?
    Well if the market leader is struggling and he points towards market dynamics as to why his results we re disappointing then it s quite normal for everyone to take a hit and we also see it in other industries.
    Also it s Aurora also fell short of consensus. So if two of the big dogs are struggling because of market regulations then i guess it s only normal for investors to assume that smaller firms will struggle with the same problems. Also by now all the big guys other than aphira reported numbers that were disappointing.
    Also both canopy and aurora said they ll slow down investment into growth slash new markets which would also indicate that we re reaching a celing for the moment.

    As ive said many times before the key for this market is legalization and it s obviously not been moving along as fast as some expected and at least in canada they are still adjusting regulation especially when it comes to the sale to the end customer.

    This is good and bad news cause one one side the disappointing news are not really down to bad management but more down to bad regulation but for the market to further grow and the companies in it the canadian market with it s 6bio potential needs to be fully accessible.

    Btw Canopy still grew revenues quite fast plus they sit on cash and cash equivalents of over 1 bio so i m pretty confident that they can weather the storm.

    As i ve always stated my long thesis is and always has ben that weed is gonna move towards a legalization first in the us and then on a world wide base and that it s gonna shape up similar to the alcohol and the tobacco market which are dominated by a few huge players. Imho chances that canopy and or aurora end up amongst those huge players are still pretty intact imho but it is a long game and it might seem frustrating thinking back where the stocks were a year ago.(also pretty sure that i mentioned that smart money would probably exit cgc when they were above 60)

    It s a new market dont get spooked by the volatility again if you think this market is on the way to legalization then think any of those companies is still a good bet if you think that legalization is gonna hold up and take another 20 years then maybe your better of putting your money somewhere else.
    The hard thing here is that you have to speculate on politics and not only on how well the company is run. I personally have no idea about the general political opinion on weed but i m pretty sure that the next dem who will take office in the us will legalize it on a fed level and after that i do expect the eu to follow within a year or 2. If on the other hand a conservative gets to be the president of the US then this market may take a growth break for 4 years and we d see a consolidation which would most likely kill of a couple of the current weed companies as canada and the medical market in the size they are now are not big enough to justify all those bio dollar companies.


    Bottom line it s still a game of scale and who ever has the scale the moment the market opens up will probably end up wining a pretty big market share and the TAM if you look at it in a global perspective is fucken huge.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

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