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  1. #1521
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    24 10 years of FIF
    Thanks will take a look at them next week. I just took a quick glance and skyworks looks interesting from a financial standpoint.
    However i d have to take a deeper dive to say anything about the companies.
    Just wanted to tell you that you should consider this before investing in skyworks: https://www.wsj.com/articles/semicon...d=hp_lead_pos7

    From a first look it looks like they have most of their manufacturing in the us and mexico anyways, so it might actually be an advantage for them, but it is something to look at.

    On the akamai cloudflare article did i read it wrong? sounds like akamai is the better one.
    Never mind linkedin link is to ceo of akamai all good.

    Man akamai sounds very interesting again I have not nearly looked at it close enough, as always when it comes to IT i ll reach out to my IT guys to hear if they are familiar with these companies and what they think of the products. Of course any input from a FIF IT guy would also be appreciated.

    Will get back to you if i get any meaningful feedback.


    Also this: https://www.ft.com/content/d84dc366-...4-3efa24262275
    Last edited by Adriano@10; 31 May 20 at 13:24.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

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  3. #1522
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    another cloud play i found arista network..

    No debt, constant growth, reasonable P/E for the industry and piling on cash

    - - - Updated - - -

    also yes that was what i was implying with Akamai, it seems worlds better than Cloudflare, yet cloudflare trades on much higher multiple.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/networking/...s_cisco_nexus/

    i dont understand dick but seems very positive comments

    my inlaw is cisco expert on routing and ill ask him for another opinion, but fuck em you can targue with that balance sheet
    Last edited by Pimpin; 31 May 20 at 15:58.
    Quote Originally Posted by bandiera View Post
    referees 'without question' favour juve? i think youre overstating the effect of buying out the refs.
    On Brozovic:
    Quote Originally Posted by nurko View Post
    He's like bitcoin in January, sell him on a high while you can.

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  5. #1523
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    interesting

    - - - Updated - - -

    akamai seems to trade significantly lower by any metric imaginable. Is it because it doesnt have "cloud" on its name?
    Quote Originally Posted by bandiera View Post
    referees 'without question' favour juve? i think youre overstating the effect of buying out the refs.
    On Brozovic:
    Quote Originally Posted by nurko View Post
    He's like bitcoin in January, sell him on a high while you can.

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  7. #1524
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pimpin View Post


    interesting

    - - - Updated - - -

    akamai seems to trade significantly lower by any metric imaginable. Is it because it doesnt have "cloud" on its name?
    Seems to be the case out of 3 IT guys i asked for advice they all knew Cloudflare and only one heard of akamai.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

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  9. #1525
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adriano@10 View Post
    Seems to be the case out of 3 IT guys i asked for advice they all knew Cloudflare and only one heard of akamai.
    The more i do research the more bizarre the Akamai story gets. It seems to trade criminally lower to other tech stocks.
    Quote Originally Posted by bandiera View Post
    referees 'without question' favour juve? i think youre overstating the effect of buying out the refs.
    On Brozovic:
    Quote Originally Posted by nurko View Post
    He's like bitcoin in January, sell him on a high while you can.

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  11. #1526
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    So I was a bit hasty in making this post, but just putting out what i've found out upon some research. It all started with Akamai when I read an article on financial times, the title was "Home-working should have overloaded the internet. Why didn’t it?". The one bit that got my attention, where akamai was mentioned, were the following few lines.

    “There’s just no way the core could keep up with the kind of surge we’ve seen,” said Tom Leighton, chief executive officer of Akamai, the largest of the CDNs. Akamai stores internet content on servers in 4,000 data centres in 1,000 cities around the world. Algorithms are used to optimise the way these storage systems work, constantly assessing what users are likely to want and making sure it is on a server near to them.
    Pay attention to having data centres around the world so the data is as close to people as possible.

    Following that I did some research.. And I found the competitors who were skyrocketting.. I looked at the financials.



    Cloudflare is trading at 23.5 forward revenue (annualized growth rate as q1, basically 38% from rpevious year) and Fastly trades at 17.6 forward revenue. Akamai on the other hand trades at just 5.44 annual revenue. Now this in itself is not a big question mark, either as overvaluation for the former, or undervalued for the latter. We know far too many industries where there's similar gaps in valuation. So i delved on the topic a tad deeper.

    It would be a bit unfair to compare profitabilities, since Akamai is old in this business and others are new comers. But for arguments sake, the losses in cloudflare have widened with each passing year, reaching -106 in 2019 on freaking 287 revenue. The picture is a tad better at Fastly but its similar trend. Akamai has continuously mantained growth of revenue as well as profit, growing its margins consistently (something to bear in mind for later.) Another important fact is the money at hand they have, albeit cloudflare has money too.

    Then I re-read the article and I remembered these few lines from cloudflares CEO.

    " To meet requests for content at busy times, for instance, Cloudflare has been tapping servers on the other side of the world, where it may be the middle of the night. “During normal times, more than half of the equipment is sitting relatively idle because it’s servicing a part of the world where people are asleep,” said Mr Prince. "

    This points out to textbook example of where scale is important, textbook. Akamai has been operating for so long, and it says it handles 30% of the internet content. But maybe since they've been around, they have first mover advantage, that doesn't mean they won't be swept by the younger, nbetter technology, so i delved onto that as well.



    Cloudflare and Fastly are so far behind. Akamai has the cash, the head-start (the customers, network of servers) and most importantly the tech. Despite all that, it still trails in what is being traded at. On the customers front, these are their customers



    and this is an old picture as well. Seeing the trends of the future, with some of their customers, their future is bright. https://www.akamai.com/uk/en/about/n...soft-azure.jsp

    What is amazing about microsoft is that they will release a cloud based gaming platform, where all computing will be in cloud. Similar to hardware, the ram, processing power, graphic card, will be in a remote location and you'll just need tv and a good internet connection. With that volume of CDN, and their close partnership to Microsoft, there should be a great deal of business. Same thing about nintendo. https://www.ft.com/content/16d831a2-...4-fbbacad9e7dd alphabet has already started doing this.

    Moreover, it has quite a lot of clients that stand to benefit from the internet of things such as automakers. All of these things need Global Reach and high performance, I think the one with most servers would have best speed. Akamai seems to be that one.

    - - - Updated - - -

    bonus



    - - - Updated - - -



    - - - Updated - - -

    I didnt even mention their cloud security play



    it is their fastest growing segment 30% YoY

    - - - Updated - - -

    according to cramer it serves as security to all top 25 biggest banks in america

    - - - Updated - - -

    back to my fucking boring job now looking at bond yields
    Quote Originally Posted by bandiera View Post
    referees 'without question' favour juve? i think youre overstating the effect of buying out the refs.
    On Brozovic:
    Quote Originally Posted by nurko View Post
    He's like bitcoin in January, sell him on a high while you can.

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  13. #1527
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    Greece

    10 years of FIF Best Football Poster Most Serious Member Most Stubborn Poster
    That's just excellent man.

    Won't be digging into them as I'm waiting for my current portfolio to reach my exit limits but a few months back you'd have me haha.
    I'm in a better position as I divested from everywhere else but I don't really trust the stock market. It's a "quickie" for me during the crisis. Otherwise I'd be overexposed in this crazy market.
    Noi non siamo gobbi di merda


    Conte uomo di merda

    Vote in the OT draft you c*nts Here and here you lazy bastards


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  15. #1528
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    You realise loads of organisations have content distribution networks? AWS, Azure and GCP all provide it as a service. Netflix will come and bring a device to your ISP's data centre.

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  17. #1529
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    24 10 years of FIF
    Thanks pimp great work i still did not have time to look at it but i think you did the work for me probably gonna open a position on the next down day when ever that is.
    Also sadly we live in times where we see a lot of unprofitable growing companies being valued higher than profitable growing companies, cause somehow that fucking Silicon valley philosophy of Growth over profitablility gets taken way out of context to the point where some investors dont wanna see profits cause it would be better to reinvest into growth hurr durr..
    And yes it makes sense for soe companies in some industries to use that approach..


    Also I m still astonished how markets just keep on marching higher without any connection to reality. But i m at a point where i have to say if a weekend of riots does not warrant for futures to be red then i m not sure it will ever happen again and i might as well throw all my money back on the market as no matter how bad the real news are the headline always has been stocks rise on hope of Reopening/lower rates/ vaccines and so on.

    Like literally the dumbest trades one could have done would have earned a shit ton of money when this began i thought about zoom but as soon as you do any valuation there it s a stock one cannot touch jet the fucker doubled up in that time period.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

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  19. #1530
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    upon further research, the situation gets EVEN more alarmant

    Looking at Okta vs Akamai security




    Valuation? Okta is at 25.51 bn or 30 times forward revenue

    on the other hand akamai, even full price (whole market cap), trades only 17 forward revenue of security part of business (which counts only for 1/3rd of revenue)

    It helps that Akamai's is profitable as well, whereas Okta's loss per revenue widened to 26% last quarter..

    - - - Updated - - -

    Quote Originally Posted by .h. View Post
    You realise loads of organisations have content distribution networks? AWS, Azure and GCP all provide it as a service. Netflix will come and bring a device to your ISP's data centre.
    again, I was just comparing the pure cdn public players. As i said it could either be that Akamai is criminally undervalued, or the other two are bat shit crazy overvalued.

    Plus, i practically tried to find how the industry stands, comparing benchmarks, scale and all. I just skimmed through the fundamentals and tried to make sense of it.

    Also I doubt you read the whole post as it showed how it compares to them, in fact it has a partnership with Azure. Instead you can also add your points and explain the industry better to us as to what's the better play.
    Quote Originally Posted by bandiera View Post
    referees 'without question' favour juve? i think youre overstating the effect of buying out the refs.
    On Brozovic:
    Quote Originally Posted by nurko View Post
    He's like bitcoin in January, sell him on a high while you can.

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  21. #1531
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    24 10 years of FIF
    Very tempted to buy put option in GSX as Grizzly research joins muddy water in calling them out as fraud and providing additional evidence:
    https://grizzlyreports.com/gsx-update-6-2-2020/

    stock is up 12% lol still tempted to buy longdated puts how long can fraud sustain?
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

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  23. #1532
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    https://www.datanyze.com/market-share/cdn--10

    this website seems to be interesting. A bit confusing but you can see the market concentration of firms

    https://www.datanyze.com/market-share

    what a gold mine wow


    Considered the largest global CDN, Akamai is
    the overwhelming market leader (measured by
    profit) — with more than 60% of market share
    by revenue. Akamai has “servers everywhere”
    and a wide range of products and services for
    targeted segments of buyers that need
    specialized, high-powered media and software
    delivery. Akamai is one of the original CDN
    providers that still dominates the market.
    https://cdn2.hubspot.net/hubfs/42388...t%20Report.pdf
    Last edited by Pimpin; 02 Jun 20 at 21:56.
    Quote Originally Posted by bandiera View Post
    referees 'without question' favour juve? i think youre overstating the effect of buying out the refs.
    On Brozovic:
    Quote Originally Posted by nurko View Post
    He's like bitcoin in January, sell him on a high while you can.

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  25. #1533
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    I've had the chance to work with Akamai first hand. The cloud business is in a stupid bubble right now. Amazon/Microsoft will inundate whatever corner of the market these smaller players have carved out for themselves.
    Team #Dare2Mazzari #Messi4Inter #Messi4AsadoClan

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  27. #1534
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    Quote Originally Posted by Fapuccino View Post
    I've had the chance to work with Akamai first hand. The cloud business is in a stupid bubble right now. Amazon/Microsoft will inundate whatever corner of the market these smaller players have carved out for themselves.
    Care to comment on it? IE how does it compare to others how does it make money, how can microsoft scoop them up ( I read ther were countless rumors of microsoft potentially acquiring them)

    - - - Updated - - -

    aside from financials and some energy stocks everything else is a stupid bubble right now

    - - - Updated - - -

    I fully expect tommorrow Saudi Arabia to further cut down production. In terms of their reserves, it would be suicide to continue and fight versus Russia.



    - - - Updated - - -



    while still high, they'd rather have the money to bbuy the newcastles of the world rather than risk a full blown social crisis. Russia is the same with the upcoming elections for Putin.
    Quote Originally Posted by bandiera View Post
    referees 'without question' favour juve? i think youre overstating the effect of buying out the refs.
    On Brozovic:
    Quote Originally Posted by nurko View Post
    He's like bitcoin in January, sell him on a high while you can.

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  29. #1535
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    24 10 years of FIF
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...lion-in-assets
    LOL
    CEO of US global Investors Issuer of the JETS ETF:
    All these millennials, being stuck at home with no bars to go to and no beaches to travel to, took their money and became day traders,” said Holmes. “They’re bored, they want to make money.”
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

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  31. #1536
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pimpin View Post
    Adriano, wait a few weeks before buying the dip in italian securities. Italy is one of the most indebted regions in EU with one of the worst bank sectors, the amount of shit loans they have is astounding, by any measure. If the virus spreads in France/Germany/UK no one will care about Italy, and Italy itself won't have the firepower to fix their economy.

    The macro-rundown from EU:

    Germany has a very low debt level, 55% of GDP, and has run suficit for the past few years. It has quite a few distressed corporations, I should imagine none of them will go under, but its good to bear in mind. Deutschebank is very indebted, and Germany simply won't become the sole country in EU with no big bank (commerzbank is mostly local). Then there is the automotive sector (which accounts for quite a few number of employments), heavy disruption in the supply chain, hit on demands in europe and china (for example, 80% of geely's orders have fallen in february year on year from february in china, today it was reported), may result in significant need for liquidity for payments to suppliers/workers. Additionally, you have the airlines, the german champion Lufthansa, with flights collapsing, they will most certainly need an injection. Then you have the mittelstand, which all of them will be vulnerable. Germany most certainly can weather this storm and without breaking much sweat, therefore I think, barring any additional disaster, all of these firms could be good value, if the market are not pricing these things in (which I don't think they are).


    Germany wields ‘bazooka’ in fight against coronavirus
    https://www.ft.com/content/1b0f0324-...3-fe4680ea68b5


    The UK is super interesting. The level of debt is not that significant for them because of having their own currency, their corporate sector is poo-poo. There are a few "british - xx" firms that are at high risk of collapsing. The first one is Centrica, or British Gas, has a shit ton of debt as a result of a price cap imposed by the governemnt, it has lost like 90% of market cap in past few years. Still has 22% yield dividend. If it goes down, the government is 100% to blame. Huge upside potential, assuming the government intervenes, along with a nice dividend, assuming it keeps giving it.
    - Then there's British Petroleum, aka BP, currently trading at an all time low, although no looming debt risk, it is trading at the absolute rock bottom at 278 gbx, or 2,78 pounds, with 10% div yield. How valuable it is? Think of it this way, it was trading at rock bottom of 304 gbx during it's oil spill, no need for Gov, as the saudis will stop flooding the market. Anyhow BP has the firepower to weather this storm too.
    - British Airways CEO said just a few hours ago that they face an existential crisis BA boss says airline faces fight for survival
    https://www.ft.com/content/f402d0e0-...d-df28cc3c6a68
    . They have a 200% debt to equity ratio and with the current situation in europe and USA, it will balloon. I would not touch this as its not listed as BA but IAG(international aviation group) which has iberian airways and few others, hard to see how they get a bail-out. Another british airline is easyjet, which has great business model and modest debt. Right now not trading at prices which would make it attractive, but one to keep an eye on as its dipping fast.
    - British Telecom aka BT. I don't know where to start with this mess, but it has lost 85% of value over the past few years and it does not look like it will get any better, no idea if gov could bail them out.

    France is another distressed country. Albeit it has less debt than Italy, it is still not considered as a sure fire bet as Germany, which can virtually get as much debt as it wants. The problem with France is that it has, even know, a bigger than all EU countries a budget to GDP ratio, largely due to pensions and horseshit social protections. With that being said, it is the 2nd biggest economy in EU and there would be political ramifications were people (Germans) to dismiss their distress - the political ramifications being the very existence of EU. There are a few France based companies that I follow.

    - Renault, obviously being the first one. This piece of shit company has burnt my ass worse than a gonorhea infected dick, yet here I am doubling down on it. Renault is an absolute garbage company, dysfunctional management (before the new CEO, no idea how the new one will cope), dysfunctional partner in Nissan (&Mitsubishi) and an unsupportive Government which has 15% stake in it. Why do I think that it will sky-rocket? It simply can't go any lower, it employs 150.000 people, government has a stake in it, government blocked a merger (or at least deterred a merger),therefore if France lets it go bust, people (or maybe just me) will get the pitchfork. It does have a short debt burden, but i think they will cope. Its partner nissan is trading at an all time low, with Renault only ever trading lower during the financial crisis. It has a 45% in Nissan, solid electric energy, lots of scale in manufacturing and a great partner with Global reach for many companies.
    - AirFrance-KLM, i dont know enough but its even worse than Renault and it has a piss poor reputation among french ppl so quite sceptical they get bailed out.


    One thing to bear in mind, if Germany will bail its firms, the others will call for same.
    Companies that are very well run, who depend on physical visiting the stores are suffering and could be great value, starbucks at $65, greggs at 16pounds, are something to keep an eye on.




    https://www.wsj.com/articles/germany...on-11591226131

    Germany’s Second Coronavirus Stimulus Package Brings Total Support to €1.3 Trillion
    Scale of support has raised concerns about lopsided recovery in Europe, where many governments have struggled to put together similar packages
    - - - Updated - - -

    I hate how much i love germans
    Quote Originally Posted by bandiera View Post
    referees 'without question' favour juve? i think youre overstating the effect of buying out the refs.
    On Brozovic:
    Quote Originally Posted by nurko View Post
    He's like bitcoin in January, sell him on a high while you can.

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  33. #1537
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    24 10 years of FIF
    Yeah man that was a good call..
    Also i fully agree at this point SK and Germany handled this shit in the best possible way. Only thing that scares me in Germany is DB, the closer i look at them the more shitty there business seem, lets say at any given day i would not be surprised if a scandal broke on these guys..

    But i did buy some VW...... just a great fucken compay when their not cheating.
    Also i still cant help it but think this market is beyond nuts ATM. Contemplaining taking some profits on Heineken/Bunge and GD as their all way up and i bought them as a defensive investment.

    Also not sure what to do with my T bonds, and my tlt i shares their all way up but coming down rapidly these days just not sure if i should take profits or if I should keep em as insurance.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

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  35. #1538
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    24 10 years of FIF
    Yoo pimp man akamai almost seems to good to be true....... The closer i look the more i like em...

    Only question i still have is the TAM and the entry point. Specially their security and web performances are hard to quantify and find comparables to.
    You found anything on that?

    Also did you find any info on the terms of the senior notes they issued in 19?

    Overall they look very good maybe not the fastest growing cloud play but probably the most financial sound one especially of the smaller players. Also mgm seems to be on point...

    Still have to read their 2020 proxy though...

    Also on the worry of being bullied out of the industry by one of the big guys i just dont see it, they might get bought up especially at current prices. Just look at their fucken customer portfolio it s not gonna be easy to lure those clients away as long as the service is top notch.

    Imho would be easier and probably cheaper for the big guys to just put the cash on the table and buy them rather than try to take customers from them. I mean would 16 bios really make a dent in MSFT or AMAZOns bottom line? Even if they pay a 50% goodwill it still would not make a change for these guys.
    I mean it s not like AWS/Google/microsoft cloud are new products yet there does not seem to be any mayor loss of clients for akamai since these guys entered the market.

    That being said i m convinced there will be a window of entry under 100 usd, so i ll read the proxy sit back and watch what happens.
    But unless theres a huge red flag in the proxy i ll sonn be a sh of akamai.

    Side note for the GAP fans: Simon property groups suing gap over 65 mio in unpaid rent. Also GAP continious to refuse to pay.
    Source: Bloomberg

    Who would have thought landlords are not happy with tenants simply not paying rent?
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

  36. Thanks (1): MVD

  37. #1539
    brehme1989's Avatar
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    Greece

    10 years of FIF Best Football Poster Most Serious Member Most Stubborn Poster
    Unemployment all time high
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    Noi non siamo gobbi di merda


    Conte uomo di merda

    Vote in the OT draft you c*nts Here and here you lazy bastards


  38. Thanks (2): Fapuccino, thatdude

  39. #1540
    satubito's Avatar
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    Great read and information everybody. Keep it up please!
    FORZA INTER TILL I DIE! Mi chiamo Salvatore.

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