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  1. #1181
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    Quote Originally Posted by ADRossi View Post
    This is the type of hard hitting analysis I visit our forum for.


    It basically is very fitting given the crazy market environment we are in.

    In the words of another philosopher:
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    Conte uomo di merda

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  3. #1182
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pimpin View Post


    Are u bragging right now?! Oh, whatever makes ur dick hard i suppose...

    Sent from my BLA-L29 using Tapatalk

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  5. #1183
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adriano@10 View Post
    Yeah same also i found new respect for short sellers in this crisis, say about them what you want but they sure as hell do their fucken home work and a tonn of research for sure way more then the longs....
    https://www.muddywatersresearch.com/ Those guys were saying it fore like a year now that luckin is faking it s numbers.

    Also how the fuck are markets up 1%+ again? we really dont care about record breaking jobless reports? And no they wont all be going back to work in 1 or 2 months.
    I read about muddy waters on ft and i just shrugged it, like how can they fake to that extent.. the motherfuckers

    Also I always respect the shorts, I remember one guy who did a phd project for riotinto was going public that their mine in mongolia did not have as much copper (I think) as its being stated. he made a killing for a company.

    Certainly if not investing, I will avoid companies that are getting shorted.

    https://www.ft.com/content/7d8101c0-...e-3cdf3174eb89

    - - - Updated - - -

    anyone an opinion on twitter?

    - - - Updated - - -

    their balance sheet is spectacular. With 2bn bought at current prices with share buybacks P/E would be around 11.

    Twitter had 6.6bn cash (4.6 now) and almost 1bn in other short-term assets. Compared with 800m in current liabilities.

    Jack Dorsey with those ac milan fucks at his back could actually be decent ceo.
    Quote Originally Posted by bandiera View Post
    referees 'without question' favour juve? i think youre overstating the effect of buying out the refs.
    On Brozovic:
    Quote Originally Posted by nurko View Post
    He's like bitcoin in January, sell him on a high while you can.

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  7. #1184
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pimpin View Post
    I read about muddy waters on ft and i just shrugged it, like how can they fake to that extent.. the motherfuckers

    Also I always respect the shorts, I remember one guy who did a phd project for riotinto was going public that their mine in mongolia did not have as much copper (I think) as its being stated. he made a killing for a company.

    Certainly if not investing, I will avoid companies that are getting shorted.

    https://www.ft.com/content/7d8101c0-...e-3cdf3174eb89

    - - - Updated - - -

    anyone an opinion on twitter?

    - - - Updated - - -

    their balance sheet is spectacular. With 2bn bought at current prices with share buybacks P/E would be around 11.

    Twitter had 6.6bn cash (4.6 now) and almost 1bn in other short-term assets. Compared with 800m in current liabilities.

    Jack Dorsey with those ac milan fucks at his back could actually be decent ceo.
    Havent looked at twitter in some time bought some when drumpf got voted into office, but did not bother to much with the financials as i thought it was a pure hype play.

    Also where did you take your earnings from? I think your using last years if you use Eps projections your math does not quite add up. At least for me.
    EPS of 1.88 in 19 and fwd eps 2020 at 0.89 (consensus).... But it surely is a thing that eliot would want dorsey to do if possible.

    Also i m a bit worried on twitter cause they were the first platform to pull guidance on the whole corona stuff and if Drumpf does not get additional 4 years i think both MAUs and Daus will be down. Only reason i m on that site is cause i realized that at times stocks are down/up 2% because of a tweet of his...
    Last but not least i think from all the social network platform twitter is worst for advertisers, at least thats my take and i d argue that if you compare ARPU to other social media sites it will confirm that.
    Not saying it s a bad company especially with eliot in there...
    But if trump looses and user ebgagement goes down as well as MAUS then i m not sure that even a P/e of 12 would be a bargain.

    Another good story from MUSK world Tesla delivered 88k+ vehicles this quarter and is up 14% on the news. Now whats funny about that is that back in december all the tesla bulls were sure that it s gonna be atl east 95k deliveries and thats why they re so bullish many said it would be above 100k.
    Then what happens Tesla gets a guidance down grade very late in the quarter almost suspiciously late with what was going on. Now guidance sits at 76k+/-. Then tesla comes out beating those numbers with 88k and all the bulls go full retard mode hurr durrr it s another beat completely ignoring that Tesla fell way short of the estimates those same bulls called easily beatable in december.

    And also of course to hide the bad results elon decided to stop listing numbers by model but rather decided to list M3 and Y together to make it look less abmissal.

    If you guys got time and are bored here s another good watch chanos was on CNBC yesterday:
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=StybwIP8O8k

    Also WTF is this:https://www.ft.com/content/bf973569-...d-6398f3c2722a

    It s also fascinating how physical oil traders say for some time that they cannot sell their goods even at deep discounts and oil somehow surges 30% . Similar for gold it s basically impossible to get physical gold in big amounts ATM jet paper gold has these big fucken swings.
    Last edited by Adriano@10; 03 Apr 20 at 09:03.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
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  9. #1185
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    Ur right I took the training pe.

    Very close to pulling trigger on fb but I m fairly confident stock will tank further
    Quote Originally Posted by bandiera View Post
    referees 'without question' favour juve? i think youre overstating the effect of buying out the refs.
    On Brozovic:
    Quote Originally Posted by nurko View Post
    He's like bitcoin in January, sell him on a high while you can.

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    I think the worst is yet to come.

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  13. #1187
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pimpin View Post
    Ur right I took the training pe.

    Very close to pulling trigger on fb but I m fairly confident stock will tank further
    Yeah same my buying p is at 150 but i delayed last time it was lower cause i thought markets gonna tank further. Also twitters earnings warning worried me a bit.
    Now i d still expect fb to be close to that 10$ eps this year even with covid mainly cause of the elections. But it s very hard to gauge how much business from SME s they re gonna loose these coming weeks/months and how much a lack of demand is gonna drive ad prices down. That being said Fb is still one of the most efficient ad tools and in terms of price/reach pretty cheap so i expect Fb to be hit later than traditional advertisers.

    But imho on the long run fb is a 200 $ company there s no way around it so even if you eneter at these prices you ll make a decent profit.

    Like i think for FB a worst case would be something like 8uds eps and 12% rev growth which would not be great but given the circumstances still pretty decent.


    Also watch out for we works imho their business model makes em highly vulnerable to times like this. Most of their renters are on short term contracts that now probably most will get cancelled except for the ones where a business rented a whole floor. But all those self employed and 2 man companies that rented a desk at we work on a monthly or weekly contract probably have already cancelled, and we works is logged in into a long term contract to their landlords......
    If all those sme s and self employed dont flock back to we work right when this shit is over than their in some deep shit.

    I guess softbank all of a sudden is happy that they took a 20 bio haircut on We works last year already. And we work aint the only loss making company that somehow convinced investors it s a tech company when it s not and got an astronomical valuation because of it and losses we re ignored cause growth and tech..
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

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  15. #1188
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    Buffet sells Delta and Southwest shares. Monday isn't going to be kind.
    Noi non siamo gobbi di merda


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    Quote Originally Posted by brehme1989 View Post
    Buffet sells Delta and Southwest shares. Monday isn't going to be kind.
    Yeah weird thing is back in late feb he had an interview with cnbc and there he said he still likes those two a lot and that he does not expect covid to fundamentally change their business economics on the longer run. I m ot sure if he even said that he added to his position or that he s thinking about adding.....

    Anyways not sure what happened here wether he talked to bill gates and realized that covid is gonna be worse. Or wether he just lost his faith in the airline sector....


    Also a article today where a virologist claimed that inter continetal flights are not gonna come back at significant levels until 21.
    sadly i cant find it anymore.

    Edit: Bloomberg says there is no dialogue between russia and saudi ATM on oil. The OPEC meeting is pushed back one week and due to the us not being ready to participate in the production cut the whole thing is thrown into jeopardy once again.
    Thanks Donald
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

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  19. #1190
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    The reasoning of Buffet offloading those shares has to do with his ideology.

    He is against state intervention and believes wherever the government has a stake, it makes said business a bad investment. It was an action on principle more than anything. But it's probably the right move if they follow the car industry's path.

    But I think the airlines will recover somehow as some of them will fail and the big ones will manage to absorb a lot of that business in the long run.

    I've always felt that Southwest and Delta were the healthiest of them all, let's see.
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  21. #1191
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    Quote Originally Posted by brehme1989 View Post
    The reasoning of Buffet offloading those shares has to do with his ideology.

    He is against state intervention and believes wherever the government has a stake, it makes said business a bad investment. It was an action on principle more than anything. But it's probably the right move if they follow the car industry's path.

    But I think the airlines will recover somehow as some of them will fail and the big ones will manage to absorb a lot of that business in the long run.

    I've always felt that Southwest and Delta were the healthiest of them all, let's see.
    Fully agree that they gonna be back question is when while delta and southwest were healthy they also have huge fleets and parking and servicing them is gonna cost a shit ton. So really the question is when are they gonna be back at a capacity that allows them to make decent profits. I d expect it to take at least one year till were at pre corona flight levels again especially in the passenger sector but probably longer.
    But yeah the big boys will survive most likely either cause they ll get help or cause they ll just outlive the competition.

    I ll probably take a small bet on lufthansa once this has blown over.

    I ve also been thinking that the political fallout from this shit might be massive first of WHO whos still gonna take em serious, same for china.
    And many other countries blocked essential supplies like masks to each other. And i cannot imagine there not being any backlash to all off this.

    Whether it ends in governments bringing back production of what is considered to be critical goods or wether will just see extended trade tensions is yet to be seen.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

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  23. #1192
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adriano@10 View Post
    Yeah same my buying p is at 150 but i delayed last time it was lower cause i thought markets gonna tank further. Also twitters earnings warning worried me a bit.
    Now i d still expect fb to be close to that 10$ eps this year even with covid mainly cause of the elections. But it s very hard to gauge how much business from SME s they re gonna loose these coming weeks/months and how much a lack of demand is gonna drive ad prices down. That being said Fb is still one of the most efficient ad tools and in terms of price/reach pretty cheap so i expect Fb to be hit later than traditional advertisers.

    But imho on the long run fb is a 200 $ company there s no way around it so even if you eneter at these prices you ll make a decent profit.

    Like i think for FB a worst case would be something like 8uds eps and 12% rev growth which would not be great but given the circumstances still pretty decent.


    that is what made me think of twitter, they suck donkey balls in monetizing. They had wine, which was tiktok before tik tok, and instagram videos. They have such a huge following/brand value, the problem with them is not the app/business model, but retarded management. They have absolutely A+ balance sheet, and if they were to change CEO or acquire someone who knows how to leverage traffic into $, they easily can triple in value. Their enterprise value is absolutely shocking. They are a leading online social platform, they are profitable, and they are growing.. and worth $18bn
    Quote Originally Posted by bandiera View Post
    referees 'without question' favour juve? i think youre overstating the effect of buying out the refs.
    On Brozovic:
    Quote Originally Posted by nurko View Post
    He's like bitcoin in January, sell him on a high while you can.

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    trump just said for 3m, if they don't do a good job they'll have a hell of a price to pay. How is this fucking moron a republican? and even more importantly, how is he the president of the best country in the world?
    Quote Originally Posted by bandiera View Post
    referees 'without question' favour juve? i think youre overstating the effect of buying out the refs.
    On Brozovic:
    Quote Originally Posted by nurko View Post
    He's like bitcoin in January, sell him on a high while you can.

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  26. #1194
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    Quote Originally Posted by Pimpin View Post
    trump just said for 3m, if they don't do a good job they'll have a hell of a price to pay. How is this fucking moron a republican? and even more importantly, how is he the president of the best country in the world?
    Yeah man that shit was fucked up...
    Like is he really punishing them for honoring a contract with an ally? And that shit from whats supposed to be a republican wtf ?

    As i said before this shit might very well have a lot of political consequences.........

    Also on twitter to be honest i think the nature of the platform makes it harder to monetize then for example FB, yes they could do a better job at it but i doubt they ll ever reach FB levels. It s just that the interesting thing about twitter are the discussions and it s way harder to place a add there that is not super annoying.

    Also why i like Fb better is Insta is still not fully monetized even though imho there s a similar problem as twitter has, but next to Insta they also have whatsapp thats far from fully monetized. Ever since i did some business in the middle east and africa i think there s a huge potential there, with a huge amount of SME s using mainly whatsapp for communication, like even when talking to official state run channels a lot of the communication went over whatsapp....

    Plus imho zuck has done a way better job then i thought he d do initially, yes there s been bad PR and they made mistakes and stepped on a few toes but which multi bio company did not? But in terms of growing the brand and acquisitions they ve done a great job imho. Also in terms of getting to profitability and getting that ratio profit growth somehow right imho they did very well. How much of that is down to zuck or him just surrounding himself with the right people is another question. Basically in terms of management imho FB is easily the best in that social platform space. Wether eliot at twitter can change that is yet to be seen.


    All of that being said i m not a FB user but i did buy the stock in their IPO and held it up until 2 months ago, while i only held twitter for a year so i m way more familiar with Fb s business.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pimpin View Post
    trump just said for 3m, if they don't do a good job they'll have a hell of a price to pay. How is this fucking moron a republican? and even more importantly, how is he the president of the best country in the world?
    That's actually perfectly legal under these circumstances. It's federal law. Whether it's ethical is another matter.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Adriano@10 View Post
    Yeah man that shit was fucked up...
    Like is he really punishing them for honoring a contract with an ally? And that shit from whats supposed to be a republican wtf ?

    As i said before this shit might very well have a lot of political consequences.........

    Also on twitter to be honest i think the nature of the platform makes it harder to monetize then for example FB, yes they could do a better job at it but i doubt they ll ever reach FB levels. It s just that the interesting thing about twitter are the discussions and it s way harder to place a add there that is not super annoying.

    Also why i like Fb better is Insta is still not fully monetized even though imho there s a similar problem as twitter has, but next to Insta they also have whatsapp thats far from fully monetized. Ever since i did some business in the middle east and africa i think there s a huge potential there, with a huge amount of SME s using mainly whatsapp for communication, like even when talking to official state run channels a lot of the communication went over whatsapp....

    Plus imho zuck has done a way better job then i thought he d do initially, yes there s been bad PR and they made mistakes and stepped on a few toes but which multi bio company did not? But in terms of growing the brand and acquisitions they ve done a great job imho. Also in terms of getting to profitability and getting that ratio profit growth somehow right imho they did very well. How much of that is down to zuck or him just surrounding himself with the right people is another question. Basically in terms of management imho FB is easily the best in that social platform space. Wether eliot at twitter can change that is yet to be seen.


    All of that being said i m not a FB user but i did buy the stock in their IPO and held it up until 2 months ago, while i only held twitter for a year so i m way more familiar with Fb s business.

    facebook is just another beast, I fully agree, as you may know from my previous posts. I can't even begin to list all potential things that have a very real chance of happening which would grow their revenue stream exponentially. Whatsapp pay in india for example. India has a very big % of population using smartphones. It may follow the route of China in using them for payment. Just as illustration, Ant Financial, the leading Chinese phone payment app, is valued at 100-200bn. Worth noting, Walmart's flipkart owns one of the leading phone payment apps (phone pe).

    The thing however is in value, twitter is valued at 18bn, facebook at 439bn. I Just think there is value on twitter. As i said also, twitter has had many platforms, such as vine and now periscope, they have great tech just very retarded management. Snapchat is valued at 16bn for example..


    Also futures up 3% on trump giving hope..can't wait to short on wednsday before market close.
    Quote Originally Posted by bandiera View Post
    referees 'without question' favour juve? i think youre overstating the effect of buying out the refs.
    On Brozovic:
    Quote Originally Posted by nurko View Post
    He's like bitcoin in January, sell him on a high while you can.

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    yeah i see your point about twitter and i fully agree but in the end it will all come down to management execution and they dont have a great track record
    there.

    And yeah europe up almost 3 percent and us futures up over 3%..... god damn people are stupid once again the good news are more like meh news and based on hope that the curve has flattened in europe and the us which i still think is too early to tell and even if it is there are still way to many cases to start talking about opening the economy. Yet somehow investors even send airline shares up 5%+ despite facts showing that inter continental flights are pretty much done for the year.

    Also once again i turn to china to check their recovery and it does not look that good nor fast some 400k SME s did not survive q1 in china and and registration of new firms in jan was down some 30%. Plus their still practicing distancing and no big events. And again reports of the virus spreading again. Just think that should warrant a more than 25% correction in equities that were priced for super growth.

    I also just wanted to say again that i think will see a bang in the valley so many "tech" companies that are not tech companies valued at ridicules prices i d expect one or two of them to not survive this. Biggest suspect is the vision fund which is fuled with a combination of bs tech companies like we work.
    Then theres beyond/Tesla/Uber/lyft and any food delivery app would not touch any of those companies with a 10 foot pole. They all have structural problems and are living of a false narrative that is most likely going to be broken during this crisis.
    First of scalability other than uber none of them are easy to scale businesses they are all costly to grow and unlike a saas or a platform business adding an additional user is expensive. Yes there are scale efficiency effects but nowhere near as big as in a google amazon fb twitter, crm and so on. Dont believe me think about food delivery how many orders can really be handled by one driver and one car without getting into timing problems? And how many delivery routes can realistically be combined when picking up from different restaurants across a city? I think it s pretty obvious that additional drivers and cars will need to be added fast and the main cost benefit comes from a centralized app and maybe fleet discounts cause your buying cars in bulk. But those effects are minor and nowhere should justify P/E s of food deliveries.

    Beyond and Tesla on top of the scalability have the margin problem they both are operating in a traditionally low margin sectors yet somehow markets seem to think that for some reason both of them will be able to maintain a high PM when at full scale, which imho is impossible because of the nature of the business and competition. Whos gonna give a fuck wether their veggie burger is from beyond or nestle if they taste similar which they very soon will also distributing through Fastfood chains i d be surprised if the fast food chains would not start taking away margin pretty soon. Same problem for tesla concurrence is closing the gap and already outselling tesla in parts of europe, soon part of the battle will be on price.

    Now on top of that Uber Tesla and Lyft will all run into problems with the state because of their employment strategies, they all give their workers very little protection. Now with tesla it s only going to be a PR problem, but for the other two it might be an existential question. Imho both of their Business model rely a great deal on the drivers not being capable to do basic math. I mean they just put a lot of the costs on the driver the cost of the car and it s depreciation as well as keeping it clean is mainly on the driver, and the driver does not get shit when he does not drive for either of them. Now think about how many drivers dont get shit atm and will need government help while uber and lyft wont suffer that much cause if you dont drive their costs also fall pretty drastically .And of course at Uber you get no benefits as a driver, it would be highly questionable if states did not intervene here after this is over.
    Now if this happens and both have to pay their employees as if they were normal employees now that s gonna fuck up their whole business model especially if they have to take on more of the cost of their own fleet.


    Also i want it noted that i m not a silicon valley hater quite the contrary part of the reason why i did my studies in the bay was because i wanted to check ou SV. But valuations and optimism we re starting to run crayze back then (14/15) and now there are just a ton of SV companies that are not tech not scalable not visionair their basically nothing but hype but they got that SV stamp so their valuation is beyond crayze.

    Also how the fuck is CCL up 4% those fuckers still have a cruise ship in front of ft Lauderdale with cv patients on board that is not allowed to dock. Lets send the stock up 5% WTF?

    On another note i managed to get into another of those credit suisse investor calls, their take away is be cautious and go for high dividend stock with low debt. Like me they recommend ZURN very well capitalized and around 7% div yield, They also mentioned roche and Nestle basically they said they see the swiss market as more resilient then the rest cause we had low debt levels and are pretty good financed also think we were the only country where 5 days after announcing the help package for the economy money was already flowing to SME s.

    For foreigners wanting to invest here id also recommend this; https://www.ishares.com/ch/individua...vidend-ch-fund

    Edit: Tenneco up 15% after icahn disclouses buying on april 1.
    Apparently also a group involved in mortgages including the mr. cooper group is said to be in talks with the gov for help...

    EDIT 2: GAP up 15% on no news hahahahah time for another short.
    Last edited by Adriano@10; 06 Apr 20 at 13:59.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

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  32. #1198
    brehme1989's Avatar
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    Greece

    10 years of FIF Best Football Poster Most Serious Member Most Stubborn Poster
    I dipped into some new stocks today. Bad timing as I think they'll drop at some point during the next 10-15 days but I've been too bored

    Got my hands into Bank of America, Twitter, bought into the Carnival Saudi hype, Disney and Starbucks. Remarkably, both Disney and Starbucks which are the priciest ones of the lot are 1% up already within just a few hours

    I'll check the market sentiment in the timeline I initially anticipated for some other potential investments. Looking at United States Steel, Alcoa and still eyeing on Roku. I was planning on buying Roku honestly instead of BoA, Carnival and Twitter but decided the price rose too high for me to get in so I'll leave it for the future when I run out of researched alternatives.
    Noi non siamo gobbi di merda


    Conte uomo di merda

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  34. #1199
    Adriano@10's Avatar
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    Oba



    24 10 years of FIF
    Fucking saudis almost ruined my CCL puts who would have thought the saudis are dumb enough to invest into that shit fest......
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

  35. Thanks (1): MVD

  36. #1200
    brehme1989's Avatar
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    Greece

    10 years of FIF Best Football Poster Most Serious Member Most Stubborn Poster
    How do you guys view:

    Boeing
    Viacom
    (Borja) Valero Energy
    Roku
    Microsoft
    Broadcom


    I think the rumours on Buffet planning a big push on Boeing will prove fruitful. The price is just too good to pass at this point and some whale is going to pounce on it. But if I go with Boeing I need to take a big gamble on them and I'm not willing yet to reduce diversification in my stock portfolio. Even with a potential takeover or significant buyout (10% or more), I'm not sure where the price goes in this situation, so perhaps a period of 6 weeks is enough to wait on this I suppose.
    Noi non siamo gobbi di merda


    Conte uomo di merda

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