Page 58 of 76 FirstFirst ... 8485556575859606168 ... LastLast
Results 1,141 to 1,160 of 1518

Thread: Stocks

  1. #1141
    FIF MVP .h.'s Avatar
    Join Date
    08 Jun 05
    Posts
    21,712
    Thanked
    23,225 times
    Fav. Player
    Inter1-0Wanda
    Old name
    browha

    Europe

    25 Forum Supporter 10 years of FIF
    its not necessarily about the math but also the statement of intent..

    for example, do we really think that over the last 3 weeks, 20-25% of the world's 'value' has been destroyed? Of course not

    And, tbh, many people in professional level jobs might come out better from this corona virus if it doesnt drag on too long - there will be pay freezes, etc, but transportation costs which can be very substantial are down, i'm spending MUCH less on restaurants/etc obviously than I would do normally.

    Post-corona, people are gonna be on a spending spree. A big one. I wouldnt be surprised if all the restaurants around me, most of which will definitely re-open, will be fully booked for weeks.

    The one longer term impact I can see is travel - many companies will pressure people to not all go on a travel spree when this ends, especially if it drags out longer.

    Add onto that all the stimulus packages and effectively guarantees for businesses...

    A mild/shorter term corona impact wont be too bad at all I suspect. A long term one changes it entirely, but certainly in Europe and the UK it is projected that we hit the worst of it within the next week or two.
    Last edited by .h.; 29 Mar 20 at 08:07.

  2. Thanks (1): MVD

  3. #1142
    syrus's Avatar
    Join Date
    12 Nov 16
    Posts
    680
    Thanked
    546 times
    Fav. Player
    JZ AR Adri NB

    England

    .

    Remember Time in the market is more important than timing the market.

  4. Thanks (2): ADRossi, MVD

  5. #1143

    Join Date
    27 May 12
    Posts
    4,336
    Thanked
    2,215 times
    Fav. Player
    000000

    Albania

    Forum Supporter
    Quote Originally Posted by .h. View Post
    its not necessarily about the math but also the statement of intent..

    for example, do we really think that over the last 3 weeks, 20-25% of the world's 'value' has been destroyed? Of course not

    And, tbh, many people in professional level jobs might come out better from this corona virus if it doesnt drag on too long - there will be pay freezes, etc, but transportation costs which can be very substantial are down, i'm spending MUCH less on restaurants/etc obviously than I would do normally.

    Post-corona, people are gonna be on a spending spree. A big one. I wouldnt be surprised if all the restaurants around me, most of which will definitely re-open, will be fully booked for weeks.

    The one longer term impact I can see is travel - many companies will pressure people to not all go on a travel spree when this ends, especially if it drags out longer.

    Add onto that all the stimulus packages and effectively guarantees for businesses...

    A mild/shorter term corona impact wont be too bad at all I suspect. A long term one changes it entirely, but certainly in Europe and the UK it is projected that we hit the worst of it within the next week or two.
    It's true but don't rule out another wave of the corona virus. As long as there are people eating just about anything they can find, we are forced to expect the worst.

  6. Thanks (1): MVD

  7. #1144
    FIF MVP .h.'s Avatar
    Join Date
    08 Jun 05
    Posts
    21,712
    Thanked
    23,225 times
    Fav. Player
    Inter1-0Wanda
    Old name
    browha

    Europe

    25 Forum Supporter 10 years of FIF
    oh it'll come back, maybe not this year, nor this decade, but flu is always going to be a thing.

    FWIW china has banned the sale? or consumption of all wild animals

  8. Thanks (2): MVD, Palacio

  9. #1145
    I'm better than Icardi Pimpin's Avatar
    Join Date
    13 Jul 11
    Posts
    15,613
    Thanked
    16,585 times
    Fav. Player
    22IcardiBroHand
    Old name
    DomesticatedPimp

    Albania

    59
    Quote Originally Posted by .h. View Post
    oh it'll come back, maybe not this year, nor this decade, but flu is always going to be a thing.

    FWIW china has banned the sale? or consumption of all wild animals
    they did ban them after sars only to return it quietly
    Quote Originally Posted by bandiera View Post
    referees 'without question' favour juve? i think youre overstating the effect of buying out the refs.
    On Brozovic:
    Quote Originally Posted by nurko View Post
    He's like bitcoin in January, sell him on a high while you can.

  10. Thanks (1): MVD

  11. #1146
    I'm better than Icardi Pimpin's Avatar
    Join Date
    13 Jul 11
    Posts
    15,613
    Thanked
    16,585 times
    Fav. Player
    22IcardiBroHand
    Old name
    DomesticatedPimp

    Albania

    59
    Trump speaking and he seems to fucking finally grasp the severity, and now is saying the peak will be in mid-April, the time when previously he said he aims to open the economy

    MARKETS MELTDOWN INCOMING

    - - - Updated - - -

    He is saying something along the lines of opening up on 1st of June when USA can/may open. I think markets priced in a possible opening on mid april. S&P500 futures down 2.2%
    Quote Originally Posted by bandiera View Post
    referees 'without question' favour juve? i think youre overstating the effect of buying out the refs.
    On Brozovic:
    Quote Originally Posted by nurko View Post
    He's like bitcoin in January, sell him on a high while you can.

  12. Thanks (3): Adriano@10, MVD, Raul Duke

  13. #1147
    ADRossi's Avatar
    Join Date
    17 Jul 10
    Posts
    11,223
    Thanked
    24,306 times

    Netherlands

    94
    I'm probably pumping money in this week

  14. Thanks (2): MVD, syrus

  15. #1148
    crzdcolombian's Avatar
    Join Date
    02 Aug 07
    Posts
    10,783
    Thanked
    5,044 times
    Fav. Player
    Radamel Fkingco

    Colombia

    10 years of FIF
    A 1 year old just died In the US because of Corona!!

    Now people are totally going to panic. I mean before that it was 90% 60+ year olds. This week a 17 year old now a 1 year old. Hopefully people start to take shit seriously

    My wife and parents are starting to freak out now about it but they send me on little adventures all the time. Since my parents are staying with us during this. My wife’s parents want to move in for the next month!!! FML!!!
    VAR is some serious Bullshit!

  16. Thanks (1): MVD

  17. #1149
    Adriano@10's Avatar
    Join Date
    22 May 04
    Posts
    6,909
    Thanked
    5,101 times
    Fav. Player
    Oba



    24 10 years of FIF
    Quote Originally Posted by .h. View Post
    its not necessarily about the math but also the statement of intent..

    for example, do we really think that over the last 3 weeks, 20-25% of the world's 'value' has been destroyed? Of course not

    And, tbh, many people in professional level jobs might come out better from this corona virus if it doesnt drag on too long - there will be pay freezes, etc, but transportation costs which can be very substantial are down, i'm spending MUCH less on restaurants/etc obviously than I would do normally.

    Post-corona, people are gonna be on a spending spree. A big one. I wouldnt be surprised if all the restaurants around me, most of which will definitely re-open, will be fully booked for weeks.

    The one longer term impact I can see is travel - many companies will pressure people to not all go on a travel spree when this ends, especially if it drags out longer.

    Add onto that all the stimulus packages and effectively guarantees for businesses...

    A mild/shorter term corona impact wont be too bad at all I suspect. A long term one changes it entirely, but certainly in Europe and the UK it is projected that we hit the worst of it within the next week or two.
    I ve said it before i ll say it again your assuming markets were efficient before this shit happened thats extremely dangerous. And would have cost you a lot of money in past crisis.
    First of markets were extremely high prior to the crisis i mean in terms of shiller p/e we re at pretty high levels still.
    Secondly your assuming pricing is only based on the past wehen future earnings and growth are a huge part especially in todays market and that growth just hit a wall and came to a full stop.
    Also that notion of everything will be back to normal once we get the clear is hilarious it wont be.... those 3 mio unemployed we have now will only gradually find work again, and they wont spend much as long as their jobs are not secured no matter the stimulus. No household is gonna invest into big ticket items atm and most companies unless their huge are not gonna go through with investments because of this and they sure as shit wont start hiring right when we got the curve to flatten again. On top of that you got the travel industry that just wont come back this year no matter what.
    Also even if europe will have the worst behind it in 2 to 3 weeks like you say, no way in hell will they re open and go back to normal 100%. worst case would be for this shit to flame up again within a couple of weeks.

    Look at how restrictive china is with letting people in and out of wuhan even now. Again look at the actions of the chinese regime not the numbers they publish.

    data out of china strongly suggests that they are at 80% at best right now and we re starting to see a credit crunch on the consumer side.....
    Spending in china has already taken a huge hit and is still down much in line with that consumer confidence in the US took a huge fucken hit this week...

    Bottom line the market was supercharged before this shit and priced in a shit ton of growth and that growth just got wrecked.

    Also remember there s usually multiple rounds to this shit the virus is just the initial hit. bankruptcies and unemployment is what usually follows and what keeps the spiral going.

    I d be surprised if there s not a lehman brothers/ Madoff/ Enron out there whose BS business practices will get uncovered. Money was so cheap and growth so overpriced there were huge incentives to cheat investors cause it would have been pretty easy.
    Dont believe me think about what triggered enron to collaps think about why it was in the aftermath of the dot.com bubble that shit finally blew up.
    Think about why madoff got caught in the aftermath of the fin crisis and why greeks fraudulent accounting got caught in the aftermath of the fin crisis?

    It s simple when times are good investors dont look to close sadly same could have been said about MBS back in 08 it was not like it s that huge complicated construct that nobody could have seen that it s BS. And quite a few people saw through it and called it out for a long time but no one listened to them cause PROFITS...
    Until of course shit hit the fan and all of a sudden those idiots who were called nay sayers are now the heroes that saw the bs coming and that deserve a film to be made about them.

    I can only say look to debt markets they are clearly not behaving as if we ve reached a bottom.
    Only way how this market is "cheap" is if you compare it to treasuries and AAA rated bonds cause you dont get any yield on them, but again that probably only leads to investors stretching for yield which imho is partially the cause for what we are seeing now in the low investment grade bond market as well as in the junk bond market.


    I can only repeat proceed with caution, this is not the market to take on big bets. It might be a good point to get into some companies you like but you deemed to expensive before this, but the philosophy imho should clearly be to spread out the buying over a longer period and buy small stakes.

    Again i m not saying people should try to time the market but i think the downside potential is still pretty big and most people would be better served with spreading out their buys.

    I also want to add that the stimulus that prevents companies that get saved to lay off people might turn out counter productive. AIrlines/restaurants/carmakers will have to lay off people to make operations profitable since demand is gonna fall there s no way around it. So basically you re saving companies but then forcing them to keep an unnecessarily high work force which will impact profit margins negatively in industries where margins are already tiny to begin with.

    Edit: TLDR pretty much this is what i think of current markets: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y8UlCWUCO9A

    Also futures turning green again this is hilarious. The amount of people trying to catch the bottom is to much.
    Last edited by Adriano@10; 30 Mar 20 at 12:53.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

  18. Thanks (4): MVD, Palacio, Pimpin, syrus

  19. #1150

    Join Date
    27 May 12
    Posts
    4,336
    Thanked
    2,215 times
    Fav. Player
    000000

    Albania

    Forum Supporter
    Great video. Thanks for the heads-up.

  20. Thanks (2): Adriano@10, MVD

  21. #1151
    Adriano@10's Avatar
    Join Date
    22 May 04
    Posts
    6,909
    Thanked
    5,101 times
    Fav. Player
    Oba



    24 10 years of FIF
    So macys just announced it will furlough most of its 130k employees they will keep on paying healt benefits and pay 100% of premiums at least through may.

    Markets still dont seem to care.

    EDIT: Like wtf were the good news today? why the fuck are we 2% up on a day that only got bad news?

    EDIT2: chinese official saying the economycould get worse before it gets better amid demand shock:
    https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-e...official-warns

    They usually dont say negative things unless they re pretty much certain.
    Last edited by Adriano@10; 30 Mar 20 at 16:57.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

  22. Thanks (2): MVD, Pimpin

  23. #1152
    Fapuccino's Avatar
    Join Date
    03 Apr 12
    Posts
    13,959
    Thanked
    11,475 times
    Fav. Player
    Schelotto

    Brazil

    Quote Originally Posted by ADRossi View Post
    I'm probably pumping money in this week
    I'm still gonna hold out a bit. Looking at Air Canada. No extra fees for us as well for Canadian companies.

    Though the good thing about buying stocks in USD, is that the Canadian dollar going down the shitter offset the conversion fees.

    Quote Originally Posted by crzdcolombian View Post
    A 1 year old just died In the US because of Corona!!

    Now people are totally going to panic. I mean before that it was 90% 60+ year olds. This week a 17 year old now a 1 year old. Hopefully people start to take shit seriously

    My wife and parents are starting to freak out now about it but they send me on little adventures all the time. Since my parents are staying with us during this. My wife’s parents want to move in for the next month!!! FML!!!
    Given a large enough sample size you'll find a few cases of younger people dying. It is an attack on the immune system after all.

    But just a reminder, they reported up to 65,000 people dying this flu season alone in the US. CV is still 2,500 and that's WITHOUT a vaccine.
    Team #Dare2Mazzari #Messi4Inter #Messi4AsadoClan

  24. #1153
    ADRossi's Avatar
    Join Date
    17 Jul 10
    Posts
    11,223
    Thanked
    24,306 times

    Netherlands

    94
    Air Canada is a good one. I can't imagine the government ever lets them fail given that they're the only viable international airline we have, aside from maybe Air Transat. As long as people keep writing fluff pieces predicting they're going to go bankrupt, there's probably some built-in value.

  25. Thanks (1): MVD

  26. #1154
    I'm better than Icardi Pimpin's Avatar
    Join Date
    13 Jul 11
    Posts
    15,613
    Thanked
    16,585 times
    Fav. Player
    22IcardiBroHand
    Old name
    DomesticatedPimp

    Albania

    59
    Macy’s, Gap and Kohl’s put thousands on leave
    Retail chains employing 420,000 say store closures will last longer than expected


    please tell me markets priced this in

    - - - Updated - - -

    that gap short is looking better by the minute (I have an open sold position @ 9.3)
    Quote Originally Posted by bandiera View Post
    referees 'without question' favour juve? i think youre overstating the effect of buying out the refs.
    On Brozovic:
    Quote Originally Posted by nurko View Post
    He's like bitcoin in January, sell him on a high while you can.

  27. Thanks (2): Adriano@10, MVD

  28. #1155
    Adriano@10's Avatar
    Join Date
    22 May 04
    Posts
    6,909
    Thanked
    5,101 times
    Fav. Player
    Oba



    24 10 years of FIF
    Quote Originally Posted by Pimpin View Post
    Macy’s, Gap and Kohl’s put thousands on leave
    Retail chains employing 420,000 say store closures will last longer than expected


    please tell me markets priced this in

    - - - Updated - - -

    that gap short is looking better by the minute (I have an open sold position @ 9.3)
    Futures still up...... but china pmi was at 52 so better then expected but even chinese officials said that this is mainly because it s coming from a record low. Also many economists are not trusting that PMI since 80% of chinas trade partners are closed down.

    on another note HK retail sales are down some 44% in value and basically only essentials are selling. Clothing is down 70%+.
    Remember that HK did not have a massive outbreak and is dealing with this for 3 months now.....
    Again data would clearly point towards a slow recovery that is probably not V shaped.

    LL bean s ceo was on cnbc saying they re doing ok but also saying their in store sales are 0 obviously and their online sales are down 20 to 30%....
    If those numbers mean your doing ok then how the fuck do bad numbers look like?

    Also does anybody know about the timing of the us stimulus? As far as i know there s still a lot of uncertainty surrounding this which also is a ticking time bomb. Every day that companies dont get the liquidity they need they move closer to bankruptcy.


    Also my gap put is in the money but the bid ask spread is still huge.
    Edit: Goldman Sachs just revised their annualized q2 gdp to -34% from -24% and the unemployment to 15% from 9%
    futures still green.....

    EDIT2: Carnival (CCL) will try to raise 1.2 bio on equity market with new stock issuance. Pricing date will be tomorrow post close.
    The question arises if companies like CCL and Carvana (CVNA) can raise the necessary capital on equity markets why does the state jump in and bail out other companies that are financially way more stable then the two mentioned before?
    I mean it would be madness from investors to give money to ccl and not do the same for lets say boeing.

    Also good news for everybody thats short CCL.

    EDIT 3: https://www.wsj.com/articles/credit-...ss-11585660093
    EJF capital suspending clients from withdrawing their money from their debt fund cause they dont wanna be forced to sell into a broken market.
    Man i wish i could handle my clients like this.. so you want your money? Well i dont wanna sell right now would nit be good for business.
    Fucken hilarious.

    Also i m renting out 3 commercial spaces and as of today i got one call telling me there is no way she ll pay rent at the end of the months as she has 0 income atm, and i just got a second call telling me that they wont be able to make a full rent payment and seeking for a reduction in rent prices. Now for me it s not a huge problem since i only rent out 3 commercial spaces and around 10 flats and i dont expect the people in the flats not being able to pay.
    But this shit is gonna be a problem for a couple of landlords as they ll have to keep on paying mortgage but will have heavy losses on the revenue side.
    Especially for those "businesses" that bought houses just to put on airbnb, theres some who hold multiple houses and apartments that are exclusively on air bnb especially in places like LA and NY now those people are gonna have a tuff time making payments pretty soon.

    EDIT4: Saudis are gonna further increase oil output from april 1st.
    They really dont seem to give a fuck....
    Last edited by Adriano@10; 31 Mar 20 at 13:56.
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

  29. Thanks (1): MVD

  30. #1156
    I'm better than Icardi Pimpin's Avatar
    Join Date
    13 Jul 11
    Posts
    15,613
    Thanked
    16,585 times
    Fav. Player
    22IcardiBroHand
    Old name
    DomesticatedPimp

    Albania

    59
    dunno if i should keep my GAP position or should i close. I think i'll close it at close.
    Quote Originally Posted by bandiera View Post
    referees 'without question' favour juve? i think youre overstating the effect of buying out the refs.
    On Brozovic:
    Quote Originally Posted by nurko View Post
    He's like bitcoin in January, sell him on a high while you can.

  31. Thanks (1): MVD

  32. #1157
    I'm better than Icardi Pimpin's Avatar
    Join Date
    13 Jul 11
    Posts
    15,613
    Thanked
    16,585 times
    Fav. Player
    22IcardiBroHand
    Old name
    DomesticatedPimp

    Albania

    59
    futures down 3 %. Are markets finally grasping how fucked we are?
    Quote Originally Posted by bandiera View Post
    referees 'without question' favour juve? i think youre overstating the effect of buying out the refs.
    On Brozovic:
    Quote Originally Posted by nurko View Post
    He's like bitcoin in January, sell him on a high while you can.

  33. #1158
    brehme1989's Avatar
    Join Date
    17 Jan 05
    Posts
    19,846
    Thanked
    15,581 times

    Greece

    10 years of FIF Best Football Poster Most Serious Member Most Stubborn Poster
    Quote Originally Posted by Pimpin View Post
    futures down 3 %. Are markets finally grasping how fucked we are?
    Lol no. Haven't you been watching the Futures all these days?
    Noi non siamo gobbi di merda


    Conte uomo di merda

  34. Thanks (1): MVD

  35. #1159
    Adriano@10's Avatar
    Join Date
    22 May 04
    Posts
    6,909
    Thanked
    5,101 times
    Fav. Player
    Oba



    24 10 years of FIF
    Pimpin i hope so but like brehme said they ve been doing this shit for some time now starting the day 3% down just to end it 3%up.
    But i do think that the rally we saw last week was and in the beginning of this had a lot to do with quarter end rebalancing.
    Cause again the econ data was horrible yet stocks went up.

    In other news this weeks consensus for new unemployed in the us stands at 3.6 mio...

    Also i gotta close my gap today or tomorrow expires on the 3rd hope the bid as spread comes dwn a bit.
    Good read: https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/...ch-way-now.pdf
    Which matches do you feel more, those with Juventus or Milan?
    "With Milan, without doubt. And I don't like the Rossoneri fans either because they have a way of behaving, particularly when they win, that I don't appreciate."
    Javier Zanetti

    #Fuck Conte

  36. Thanks (1): MVD

  37. #1160
    brehme1989's Avatar
    Join Date
    17 Jan 05
    Posts
    19,846
    Thanked
    15,581 times

    Greece

    10 years of FIF Best Football Poster Most Serious Member Most Stubborn Poster
    I think next week or the week after Easter will be the "real test" of the markets. My estimation is for the 13-17th of April and we'll see how the markets will react after that. Whether it's a bigger sell off or a slow recovery.

    The USA hasn't seen the worst yet so when they start implementing strict nationwide measures a big sell off should take place. Maybe during that time I will dip my fingers onto some underpriced possibilities.

    Also eyeing Crude Oil futures once again, but I won't do anything until mid-April, don't want another scare like last time.
    Noi non siamo gobbi di merda


    Conte uomo di merda

  38. Thanks (2): MVD, Pimpin

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •