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Thread: Ten Uphill Steps to the Champions League Spot 2018 Edition

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    Ten Uphill Steps to the Champions League Spot 2018 Edition

    Inter are on the run for the UEFA Champions League, again. It is the same objective which Inter have been aiming for several years, but to no success. This year, Inter will be vying for it together with AS Roma, Lazio, and AC Milan which will not make it easy for the former to grab the remaining UCL spot as Napoli and Juventus have it already secured.

    Last year, I wrote the similar article which elaborated Interís chance to enter UCL, which ultimately fell short just after it was published. This year, Inter are in much more comfortable spot although the journey will be still as arduous as ever. So, here are the remaining obstacles for Inter and the rest of UCL competitors :


    Note

    Bold : match against top six

    Italic : away match



    Here are few takes based on the remaining fixtures of the UCL contenders :

    ē Difficulty comparison

    Sorted from the hardest to easiest : Roma, Lazio, Inter, Milan.


    ē Decisive derbys

    Derby Della Madonnina and Rome Derby will decide everything. The shape of UCL competition will converge after these derbys take place.

    If Inter defeat Milan, the former basically eliminate Milanís chance to qualify. Conversely, Milanís victory will put them at the eye level of the rest of UCL contenders.

    Rome Derby will be 2 matchdays away from Milan Derby. If previously the Milanís teams kill each other, now it is the time for them to watch the killing between the Romeí s teams.


    ē Romaís chance

    It seems Roma already have secured the UCL spot. They have considerable point lead compared to the other contenders. They also have the easiest fixtures. Their closest competitor, Inter, still have to lock horn with another direct rival Lazio. While they still have one game in hand, it will be a hard game against Milan. As for Roma, they will face a lot of minnow teams in their home. It will take a massive meltdown for them to slip onto 5th rank.


    ē Interís chance

    Interís fixtures are less favourable compared to Roma and Lazio as they will have two games against direct rivals and a match with capolista Juventus. The other fixtures are also not as easy as Romaís since there are a lot of away matches.

    However, Inter also have an advantage which other teams do not have which is the presence of Luciano Spalletti. He is the more experienced and more reputable than his rivals Di Fransesco, S. Inzaghi, and Gattuso. As the coach who had consistently put Roma in UCL regularly, surely he has a clear strategy to push Inter through.

    The only big question is, can Inter maintain their form after the massive win against Sampdoria ? If they can maintain their high gear performance for the rest of the season, have no doubt that we will see Black and Blue jersey with UCL emblem again. However, if they fall again to their abysmal form like in December-February, this will not end well for the hopeful Interisti.


    ē Lazioís chance

    They have second easiest fixtures after Roma. It is easy to direct the spotlight to the Rome derby and the match against Inter at the end of the season. However, in order to prepare for the final showdown against Inter, they must prepare for the difficult run against Roma, Fiorentina, and Sampdoria in sequence and also against Atalanta. Each of them has decent squad to give a hard time for Lazio and they are still gearing up to Europe League spot. The final week could be irrelevant if they lose too many points in this matches.


    ē Milanís chance

    Milanisti have every reason to be optimistic and pessimistic at the same time. They can see the glass being half full as they manage to pull off a miraculous turnaround after the catastrophic run at the early season. But, honestly, they are not in the favourable position for the UCL qualification. They are still 4 points away from their closest rival and their 1 game-in-hand is against Inter

    Milanís chance for the qualification will depend on their 4 games ahead. Can they minimize the point loss against Juventus, Napoli, and Inter ? Two losses here will end their quest for UCL and even potentially ruin their chance for EL. The damage will not only at their points tally, but also their mental focus. Letís reflect on what happened to Inter last season. It seemed the newly appointed Pioli managed to turn around Interís season, but after a draw against Torino and the odds for UCL qualification is very slim, the team crumbled immediately and even losing their EL spot to Atalanta. This is the situation which Milan have to avoid at all cost.


    ē Wild cards : Atalanta, Sampdoria, Fiorentina

    Atalanta will face Inter, Lazio, and Milan.

    Sampdoria will face Lazio.

    Fiorentina will face Roma, Lazio, and Milan.

    These three teams are virtually impossible to snatch an UCL spot for themselves, but they can ruin a teamís chance in favor for others. Their inconsistency can easily sway the odds to one team or another.



    Conclusion

    Briefly speaking, Roma will be very likely to enter UCL competition while Inter and Lazio will fight to their last blood for the last UCL ticket. They are currently standing at the same level with unique advantages and disadvantages. Inter have 1 point lead and 1 game in hand, but Lazio have easier fixture. If Inter manage to edge Lazio out, it will be due to Spallettiís wisdom. If Inter lost it, it will be to their nasty inconsistency. As for Milan, it will take more than miracle to propel them into UCL zone.

    Hence, the prediction is :

    3. Roma

    4. Inter

    5. Lazio

    6. Milan.

    Lastly :

    1. Napoli

    2. Juventus
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    I say Irequis receives a 1 year ban if we lose points against Verona.
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    Quote Originally Posted by Irequis View Post
    Last year, I wrote the similar article which elaborated Inter’s chance to enter UCL, which ultimately fell short just after it was published.
    "I don't think drugs are the problem."

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    Quote Originally Posted by danz View Post
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    Uphill? We are climbing a cliff here.
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    Posting something positive.

    So for the first time in a few years, we're actually very close to achieving CL. Next week is the Rome derby which I'm sure they'll draw, Roma will remain inconsistent as they always do when the pressure is on + they have a match V Juve which they will surely lose as always. Lazio have the toughest round of fixtures + Europa League commitments.

    Its ours to lose tbh.
    Spoiler: text 

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    Quote Originally Posted by A.l.i View Post
    Posting something positive.

    So for the first time in a few years, we're actually very close to achieving CL. Next week is the Rome derby which I'm sure they'll draw, Roma will remain inconsistent as they always do when the pressure is on + they have a match V Juve which they will surely lose as always. Lazio have the toughest round of fixtures + Europa League commitments.

    Its ours to lose tbh.
    Our schedule actually is quite tough. If our chance to qualify is quite safe, it is because we have accumulated decent points unlike last season when we could only hope for miracle.

    While roma will have to play against Lazio and zebra, we also have to play against them as well. Roma still have easiest fixtures. They look vulnerable now because of their stupid mistake to lose 2 matches in row.
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    Look fate is in our hands.... also both Roma and Inter can fk Juve title shot


    Lazio plays both us and Roma. We are 1 point behind both those teams and Lazio is still alive in Europa league. I like our chances

    Really want to see us in Champions league again and Juve to lose the league title , maybe Roma can win Champions league thats how they make it as well

    If we are 5th and Roma wins champions league do we go as 5th place if they are in the top 4?
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    Quote Originally Posted by crzdcolombian View Post
    Look fate is in our hands.... also both Roma and Inter can fk Juve title shot


    Lazio plays both us and Roma. We are 1 point behind both those teams and Lazio is still alive in Europa league. I like our chances

    Really want to see us in Champions league again and Juve to lose the league title , maybe Roma can win Champions league thats how they make it as well

    If we are 5th and Roma wins champions league do we go as 5th place if they are in the top 4?
    No only if Roma are out of champions league positions can Italy secure a spot in that scenario.

    Which totally makes sense we shouldn't get rewarded for Roma or Lazio's success. Doesn't matter who wins champions league or europa league we have to finish 4th at least. We also are not at risk of losing a spot if we are 4th if the other two teams win and are outside champions league spot realistically. Because that would mean Milan leap frogs all 3 of us and we leap frog both of them. I mean it's certainly a possibility, but highly fucking unlikely. What I see happening is maybe Lazio wins Europa league but as they are focusing on that they drop off in the league a little (understandable) and Italy gets 5 spots.

    GOAL = DON'T GET OVERTAKEN BY MILAN FFS

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    I know we're used to failing and I expect us to fuck up somehow, but at the very least lets go into the lazio game with the champions league fate in our hands, as long as Lazio are at most 3 points ahead of us come the final matchday, i'm ok with it. I don't expect us to win but at least lets give it a fighting chance till the end.

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    Damn it guys haven't you realised that when you revive this thread, our season goes to shit?

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    Melon are out of the race now, but we are 1 point behind red dog and blue parrot.
    We should kick ourselves for losing against Torino and drawing against Atalanta when they were losing points left and right. Winning those matches means we have deposited enough points for our schedules ahead. We only have 1 home match and that is against zebra. The rest are away matches including the final showdown against lazio.

    Lazio themselves have quite difficult fixtures. If we have one extremely tough oppontent, lazio's are spreadt out from Fiorentina, Samp, and Atalanta. They have passed their first trial against Fio, but there are other clubs ahead including Torino which stunned Inter.
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