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Thread: Why the UEFA Champions League is Rigged as Hell

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    Why the UEFA Champions League is Rigged as Hell

    Today, we will try to prove that the UEFA Champions League is a sham masterminded by the corrupt organization that runs the competition. UEFA has no qualms about making their intentions to make more money clear. It's an organization which cares primarily about increasing profit, and they have demonstrated that clearly in the past - be it through small actions like increasing stadium advertisement sizes or bigger catastrophes like TV rights auctioning.

    As with all good conspiracy theories, we need a foundation of assumptions to move us through.

    Master Assumption:
    UEFA wants to increase revenue by creating more sellable games

    Definition (Sellable Game): A sellable game is one which has huge media and fan interest. It will get more people to buy tickets to watch the game, but more importantly it will create greater media hype before the game and allow UEFA to capture more mind share. A sellable game is not necessarily the most exciting game to watch.


    Assumption A - The Mechanics:

    The mechanics of the draw depend on teams finishing second in the group stage being drawn first. I do not believe this part is rigged and assume that the order of pulling out teams from this pot is completly random.

    However, the selected team from the second pot is in certain cases pre-determined (4 cases as I will explain below).

    I will not speculate about the mechanics of how this form of deception is done, but needless to say I have seen much more mind boggling tricks in my life, not just on TV but on live theater. It's very safe to assume that with the current state of technology in the world, picking a pre-determined ball out of a bowl will be a very simple achievement.


    Assumption B - The Headliners:

    To make more money, UEFA need big headlines, and to get big headlines there's only one way - The human element of the game - the drama. In a nutshell, bring someone who left back from another country.

    Getting someone from another country is easy - UEFA have already insured that matches in the first knockout stage cannot be from the same association. They have of course also made sure games can't be from the same group - how boring would that be.

    The important part is finding a high profile player or coach to make the headlines, and make the game
    interesting for journalists then fans.


    Assumption C - Thinking Ahead:


    Not only do UEFA need to find big games for this stage, but they need to make sure they don't exhaust their headlines for the next round. At the very least, there should be a couple of big teams facing each other. The next draw will of course be rigged as well to ensure that happens, but to make it easier they drop the need for teams to be from different associations so that country level rivalries can be brought into play.

    This means that some big teams will need to face "easier" teams from the start in order to go through, but those matches should be made as exciting as possible IF at all possible.


    Assumption C - addendum 1 - íViva Espa˝a! and God Save the Queen:

    Italy doesn't bring in money. Italian fans are poor. Italian fans are easily disinterested, and cynical about their teams.

    English and Spanish teams have global appeal and bring in the big dough.

    If any big team is to go through, preference shall always be given to Spanish teams first, followed by English teams.

    Italian teams can go to the garbage dump.


    Finding the matches:

    The procedure for finding these big matches would focus on the big teams: Barca, Real, Chelsea, Manchester, Arsenal, Inter, Milan. It's obvious that these are the biggest teams "media-wise".

    Let's take each team and think about who we can pair them up with:

    Barca - Need an easy match to make sure we don't lose a big headline this early on. They can't get Milan because that's already been played out in CL history. An interesting aspect to play on as a certain player who was loaned out: Hleb.

    Someone who had the headlines covered for a while, being unhappy on the Barca bench. Hleb was obviously unhappy when he was lumped into the transfer deal to Inter, and a lot of drama surrounded the player. How better to capture headlines than to bring him back to the team that rejected him?

    Assumption Game-1: Barcelona to get Stuttgart


    Real - The other Spanish side needs to go through, and like their counterparts they have a player to capture the headlines: Benzema.

    Karim Benzema had JUST left Lyon a few months ago, leaving many fans dissapointed in his decision. The 07/08 top scorer of Ligue 1 is easily the most sellable name to get all French football fans watching. On the other hand it doesn't take much to get Real Madrid fans interested in a game due to hardcore loyalty. And a relatively easy game will ensure Assumption Viva Espana goes to plan and gets Real through.

    Assumption Game-2: Real to get Lyon


    Chelsea - This one's a no brainer. Although there are two options for UEFA. Do they get Ancelotti back to Milan (Milan vs Chelsea)? Or Mourinho back to Chelsea (Inter vs Chelsea)? It's very easy to pick one, especially considering that they have bigger plans for Milan (see below).

    Inter it is, and easily the biggest headline of this stage. It will also fulfill Assumption Long Live the Queen as I'm sure Platini doesn't have a problem with Inter being knocked out at this stage. The English side is easily much stronger on paper.

    Assumption Game-3: Chelsea to get Inter


    Manchester - Golden balls hasn't been home for many many years, and I'm sure Sir Alex will be thrilled to see him.

    Another easy one and the reason why Ancelotti didn't get Milan - Beckham has to get Manchester.

    Assumption Game-4: Manchester to get Milan


    That leaves one big team, Arsenal. We could have assumed they will get Porto for the sake of rivalries (Having been dropped to the second position in last year's group after a 2-0 defeat. But to simplify the calculations I will ignore Arsenal. This one's a less obvious assumption to prove so we'll keep it to the obvious ones above. We could've also added that there's certain media appeal to Bayern/Fiorentina as the Italian sides seek revenge for their fallen brothers, but that again is more of a coincidental thing which isn't necessarily rigged.



    So with the stage all set, let's do some math.

    The Calculations:

    Everything in life has a probability of happening or not. Once you get several things happening in a row, the probabilities of those events gets compounded and is easy to calculate.

    If our above assumptions were correct, then there is a very specific probability of them happening. That probability figure will be the difference between us saying that something is just a coincidence, or if there's more to it than meets the eye.

    For example, if I told you I am going to flip a coin and I assure you it's heads, you won't be impressed if I'm right. I had a 50% chance of getting it right, so I could be just lucky. On the other hand if I get it right 10 times in a row, then I'm either psychic or it's rigged, because the probability of getting it right ten times in a row is less than 1% (0.097% to be exact). Nobody's that lucky!


    We'll start by calculating the probability of each game of the draw as it happened live.

    ---

    Stuttgart

    Based on Assumption Game-1, they will get Barcelona.

    Options: Bordeaux, Man U, Real Madrid, Chelsea, Fiorentina, Barcelona, Arsenal.

    Probability: 1/7

    ---

    Olympiakos

    Based on game assumptions, we don't care who they get as long as it's not Chelsea, Real Madrid, or Manchester United because those teams are reserved

    Options: Bordeaux, Man U, Real Madrid, Chelsea, Fiorentina, Sevilla

    Probability: 3/6

    ---

    Inter

    Based on Assumption Game-3 they will get Chelsea

    Pptions: Man U, Real Madrid, Chelsea, Sevilla, Arsenal

    Probability: 1/5

    ---

    Bayern

    We don't care who they get as long as it's not a reserved team (Madrid, Man U)

    Options: Fiorentina, Man U, Real Madrid, Sevilla, Arsenal

    Probability: 3/5

    ---

    Moskva

    Only one reserved team here which is Real Madrid.

    Options: Real Madrid, Sevilla, Arsenal

    Probability: 2/3

    ---

    Lyon

    To get Real Madrid based on Assumption Game-2

    Options: Man U, Real, Arsenal

    Probability 1/3

    ---

    Porto

    Shouldn't get Man U (Or should get Arsenal) - same probability

    Options: Arsenal, Man U

    Probability: 1/2

    --

    Milan to get Manchester United

    Probability: 1/1

    --

    The probability of all the above events occurring is calculated with the ∩ operation.

    The final calculation looks like this:

    P (1/7) x (3/6) x (1/5) x (3/5) x (2/3) x (1/3) x (1/2) x (1/1) = 0.095%

    Let's look at that number again:
    0.000952380952

    That number says, that if you were to flip a coin 10 times in a row, you will have a better chance of guessing all the outcomes right, than for the UEFA Champions League draw to have occured exactly as it has based on our assumptions.

    It's very easy to the cynic to say that working backwards after the draw was concluded, we can come up with any set of assumptions to suit the desired outcome. But it's also very easy to see that the assumptions we brought up were obvious from the start. Inter fans were already dreading facing Chelsea and felt the Mourinho connection come up. Beckham already spoke about his desire to go back to his old team. We did not even bring up Arsenal/Porto or Fiorentina in our calculations. In fact, the probability would have been much much lower if we did find a reason for every game to be a headliner.

    Finally, consider the fact that we did not even include the group stage in these calculations. We did not include other factors such as who teams faced in the past and shouldn't face again. This whole thing can be blow out of proportions if we need to make a point.

    But I think the conclusion is clear, nontheless.


    This entire posts can be considered a bit tongue in cheek, just to give the forum something to talk about. I'm not a fan of conspiracy theories. But if you are to take any part of it seriously, it's my strong belief in the corruption and greed of UEFA. I do not put it past them to have pulled any of this off. And now, looking at the numbers, I think it's difficult to explain it any other way or shrug it off to random luck.

    Now excuse me while I go and try to guess 10 coin tosses in a row correctly.

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ehsan View Post
    Assumption C - addendum 1 - íViva Espa˝a! and God Save the Queen:

    Italy doesn't bring in money. Italian fans are poor. Italian fans are easily disinterested, and cynical about their teams.
    Except, the stats don't really support that theory...Spanish clubs winning the CL?...12 times....English clubs?...11 times...Italian clubs?...11 times.

    And even in recent history, Italian clubs (AC Milan) have won twice, English clubs twice and Spanish clubs 4 times.



    Quote Originally Posted by Ehsan View Post
    English and Spanish teams have global appeal and bring in the big dough.
    I think this is definitely the current trend...Italy had been at least as appealing as Spain in previous years in terms of the talent pool etc. but has steadily been on the decline...The corruption that hit the league certainly didn't help it either...Now, there appears to be a bigger gulf in terms of playing style.

    While some (Including myself) may find the Premiership a bit unappealing, there are plenty who appreciate the fast pace & action of the game...The birthplace of the beautiful game and the league that generates the most revenue, top to bottom.

    La Liga is currently appealing to those who also have a taste for the technical aspects of the game with the most skilled players calling Spain their home.

    Italy is now looking more & more like the 3rd league and currently, IMHO, has less appeal based on the style of play...Depending on the day, of course...But I think that is reflected in the global appeal factor you mention.



    Quote Originally Posted by Ehsan View Post
    If any big team is to go through, preference shall always be given to Spanish teams first, followed by English teams.

    Italian teams can go to the garbage dump.
    Obviously, I'm a bit biased on my end but anytime I hear that argument, I comment that Barca, for example, had the hardest draw of any of the knockout clubs...Lyon, Bayern, Chelsea & Manchester...No one had a trougher road to Rome...On the flip side, RM were embarrassed out of the competition...Why?...They stunk and didn't benefit in any way despite their history etc.

    On the flip side, who in Italy really are on the level of the top Spanish or English sides, atm?...Inter, if we assume they are the top Italian club, aren't really on Barca's level atm...So not sure we can claim that Inter are being disrespected somehow when the best Italian side can't really cause danger for the best Spanish side....That could all change, obviously, when they face Chelsea now

    I do agree, however, that UEFA & FIFA are rife with corruption...Blatter's ascendency to power is well documented and these 'draws' are hardly random...Money talks and I am sure that ties are drawn up to pit plotlines that will insure a steady revenue stream...But as for the results?...I think that still comes down to the clubs themselves...And right now, English & Spanish sides are ahead of Italy, IMHO

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    After reading this thread, I need someone to remind me of something.

    When Inter faced Villarreal in the CL, did that happen after Argentina's NT troubles (you know all the Riquelme, Sorin, Veron and Zanetti stuff) or was that before we faced them?
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    Pretty sure it was, M.Adnan. Remember, J.Zanetti was excluded from the 2006 WC squad and that match occurred in 05/06.

    Ehsan, as usual, you come up with a post that not even one forumer in this whole world can even dream of.

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    Great read... Amazing post Ehsan
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    Great work on that post, Ehsan.
    And FCBarca, UEFA leaning towards Spaniards and Englishmen is clear for everyone to see, and no one can blame them for the decline the Italians had with all the shit they did lately. Also at recent time the Spanish teams took the chances they were given and rose above Italy and England (majorly thanks to the very low taxes they have to pay for players' wages), but before the 20th millennium, Italians were the boss.
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    Well to be honest, it's kinda pathetic for the Italian clubs because had we been better, THEY (The English clubs drawn against us) would be the one shitting their pants thinking UEFA has a conspiracy theory against them since the EPL clubs are drawn with the Serie A clubs.

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    The way things are going with Uefa my predictions next year are We play both Real Madrid and Arsenal In CL.

    Milan will play Chelsea.

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    +some big transfer will also motivate "the draw"....

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    We should try to make another conspiracy-theory before the draw! and we will see

    i think we will get Arsenal, big match, big cash for UEFA, Voyeur vs Special One
    Barca and Mu will get easy draw, i bet, the french or russians

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    Lucio Bayern story, we will play them because they are the team that 'cheated' Fiorentina who is also from Italy.


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    it's going to be either arsenal or bayern in the quarter finals, i think they are both much weaker than chelsea so we can easily eliminate them if we play like we did against chelsea

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    We're getting Man U because seeing us facing an English team is UEFA's fetish and we'll be in the same bracket as Barca.

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    Where do you see the brackets? How do you know we will be in the same bracket as Barca? That means we have no chance of meeting Barca, eh?
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    Quote Originally Posted by Xoonky View Post
    Where do you see the brackets? How do you know we will be in the same bracket as Barca? That means we have no chance of meeting Barca, eh?
    He's just guessing. If we're in the same bracket as Barca, we'll play them if we both go through.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Inter Forever View Post
    We're getting Man U because seeing us facing an English team is UEFA's fetish

    There were Liverpool, than MU, now Chelsea, so Arsenal is next.

    But that Lucio story is acceptable.

    and i think there will be an all French game between Lyon-Bordeaux, for being an outsider in the semi and France can cheer in the semi for either team, big market, big fever, big money

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    If we get Barca, then its rigged since UEFA wants Italy out.
    If we get Bayern, then its rigged because of all the Italy-Germany hype.
    If we get Arsenal or Manu, then its rigged since UEFA always wants Italy vs England. or Mourinho vs Voyeur or SAF.
    If we get Bordeaux, then its rigged since Jose would face Blanc who is rumoured to be his successor at Inter.
    If we get CSKA, then UEFA is a bitch since Inter always gets to face the Russians.
    If we get Lyon, ...ahh can't think of anything.

    Come on UEFA, to prove that you don't rig the draw; you have to come up with Inter-Lyon.
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    Bayern would be just fine. At the same time we could put Bayern the hell out of CL.

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    Quote Originally Posted by rockball View Post
    If we get Bordeaux, then its rigged since Jose would face Blanc who is rumoured to be his successor at Inter.
    If we get CSKA, then UEFA is a bitch since Inter always gets to face the Russians.
    If we get Lyon, ...ahh can't think of anything.
    I don't see anybody mentioning those reasons as being rigged draws.

    Arsenal wouldn't be rigged also.
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