Mercato Team (Ausilio, Marotta, & Co), Mercato Strategies, The Future & The Past

[ADRossi]

I would try and sell Perisic. His wages are quite high and he'll never be more than an adequate option at LWB. I doubt there's going to be much of a market for him, but given that he's completely amortized I would take just about any fee for him. A starting LWB would be my priority heading into the summer. If we can only afford to sign one player this is the position I'd like to spend on. Dimarco remains the ideal choice as a LWB reserve if Verona do not exercise their option to purchase him. Home grown for UCL purposes and he's capable of being serviceable in the position.

My second biggest priority would be to sign a fourth striker. I don't really care who we sign, it just has to be someone that Conte trusts enough to actually play.

My final priority would be finding Handanovic's heir, assuming we don't envision Radu being that player. A time-share arrangement similar to what Juventus did with Buffon and Szczesny would benefit us greatly because I can't imagine Handanovic plans on playing for more than one or two more years.

I don't think selling Sensi is realistic. Suitors will be few and far between for a mezzala who can't stay fit. Therefore I would envision him being the sixth midfielder heading into next season with the hope that we never have to rely on him. I would love to sign someone to jump Gagliardini, Sensi, and even Vidal in the pecking order, but I'm guessing we won't have sufficient funds to do so.

[Il Drago]

My priorities would be:

-LWB: Ideally i would like Gosens or Kostic but getting either of them would require serious spending and we can't afford it. Realistically i would be ok with bringing Dimarco back or even taking Junior Firpo who barely plays at Barcelona on loan. I am not against a Perisic sale but only if we can afford signing a proper replacement.

-Wide cb: People don't realise how serious the situation is in defence. Kolarov is trash, D'Ambrosio has looked poor this season and our most reliable backup cb is Ranocchia which says it all. We need a cb who will be the 4th option and can play on both sides. Realistically someone like Bremer would be nice. There's also the possibility of bringing back Vanheusden but i don't know if he could play on the sides. I always considered him more of a future De Vrij backup.

-4th forward: We have already been late with this. We have started two seasons without a Lukaku backup. This needs to be addressed now. No idea who could be the backup forward. Personally i don't rate Marega at all.

-Regista: Considering Brozovic contract situation we're going to need another regista in the near future. Even if Brozovic signs an extension, we will still need one. In case of an emergency, Eriksen could replace him but i think he's much better as lcm. Ideally i would like Locatelli but with Juve having him at the top of their list it would be extremely hard. Perhaps we could find a low cost option outside Serie A like the Dutch guy from Alkmaar we have been linked with.

-Box to box: I am afraid it's unrealistic to expect a Sensi sale. Best case scenario we will receive loan offers. So our best hope is he manages to regain a decent level of fitness and he offers some quality minutes from the bench. I wouldn't mind offloading Vidal and replacing him with a quality option who would earn much less but it's easier said than done.

[Sawyer]

For me personally it is LWB 100% nothing else matters in getting a starting 11 of world class talent on the pitch at once.

After that its just what back up players you feel you need utilise, agree with Il Drago's comments on Regista too.

[varmin]

I'd like to see a new proper LWB with Perisic staying for one more season. Mostly, because if both of him and Young leave together, the chance of getting two reliable players is close to zero. Then, 4th striker, De Paul and one more physical player in case that Vidal is gone. And for defense i want to try for Milenkovic. He has one more year left of his contract and could be available on a good price.

[MerdaJuve]

Apparently, Luiz Murrel made it to Inter's list of potential summer targets, El phenomeno's replica! He's talented no doubt about it but physically not so sure

Sent from my SM-N975U1 using Tapatalk

[.h.]

without some major plusvalenza i cant imagine us spending the money on someone like muriel.

I can imagine us splashing out on, say, Gosens or someone like that as he'll be an immediate and definite upgrade to the first team, and Perisic's plusvalenza is likely to cover his cost for the first season anyway.

The only potential major source of splashing is if we get a new shirt sponsor sorted out, or we sign a few more great sponsorship dealas in the next couple of months.... or, of course, major plusvalenza from elsewhere (Lautaro, Brozovic, De Vrij, etc)

Prioritiy wise LWB is key, then GK after that, then FC, CB IMHO.

If we can clear out a lot of dross like JM, Nainggolan, Vecino, etc, we might just be able to make a bit of plusvalaenza on those guys. Hard to say for sure though. There'll be losses (e.g. Nainggolan), profits (e.g. Joao Mario), so hard to be sure what the net positon would be. I'd be happy with net 0 and reduced salaries on our book.

[YoramG]

There's also the possibility of bringing back Vanheusden but i don't know if he could play on the sides. I always considered him more of a future De Vrij backup.

I think the Sporting Liege director said that Zinho is making his way here in the summer, but my memory could be wrong. But you're right, the situation at the back is as dire as the lack of a 4th forward. Milenkovic could 100% be a target, and Hernandez isn't really playing at Bayern so could be an option? Very expensive though.

I would love Muriel here, but 25/30m is far too much for a 30 year old considering our financial situation right now. Something like Gagliardini+15 might be more doable, but why would Atalanta agree to that?

[.h.]

we havae Darmian and Ranocchia who can cover at CB. It's far from ideal and a real problem if one of the main guys get a major injury, but at the same time, Zinho needs to play. I'd rather see him out on loan developing. The problem is we've got 3 relatively young CBs, none of whom need dropping or rotating. Those guys can pretty much play every match. So keeping a young bench CB on the off chance one gets injured isnt gonna fly. If one of them was Godin, we could rotatae someone around that no problem, but 'charity' minutes with Skriniar De Vrij Bastoni just doesnt help anyone.

[Linege]

juan jesus is for free this mercato

[Il Drago]

I think the Sporting Liege director said that Zinho is making his way here in the summer, but my memory could be wrong. But you're right, the situation at the back is as dire as the lack of a 4th forward. Milenkovic could 100% be a target, and Hernandez isn't really playing at Bayern so could be an option? Very expensive though.

I would love Muriel here, but 25/30m is far too much for a 30 year old considering our financial situation right now. Something like Gagliardini+15 might be more doable, but why would Atalanta agree to that?

Lucas Hernandez? It would be outstanding but there's no chance. Apart from the fact he would be extremely expensive i don't think Bayern are willing to let him go. He has been much better this season and he has been great whenever he has been used as a cb. With Alaba and probably Boateng almost certain to leave he will probably the 3rd option behind Sule and Upamecano while he will also be the backup option for Alphonso Davies.

Milenkovic would be great but i don't think he's realistic. I don't think Fiorentina would sell him for less than 25m and i can't see why he would prefer Inter's bench than starting for Milan.

[Bluenine]

without some major plusvalenza i cant imagine us spending the money...

Plusvalenza is no longer as important with COVID slamming the final nail in the coffin of FFP. Even UEFA has recently admitted as much that FFP is history. In this new normal with tumbling revenues, cash flows are going to play a more important role in determining transfer budgets. Cash flows are the new plusvalenza.

What that means is that net transfer fees, payments terms, wages and most importantly cash injections by rich owners are more important considerations now, like they were in the 90s. This is a good time for a club to become a passionate hobby of a filthy rich owner. We need a new benefactor, a new Moratti, who will splurge money with little regard to financial ROI.

[.h.]

Ish.

I need to think about it a little more, but I believe the balance sheet vs cashflow for a closed loop systeme (e.g. no owner subsidies) gets to be functionally equivalent. Probably not PRECISELY equivalent, but close enough. Especially with typical spread payment terms on fees nowadays.

I wouldnt be so quick to assume tumbling revenues are a de facto standard. Everyone will suffer this season, last season, there might be some echo effects into next season especially in Europe, but the only other things I foresee are (for example) decreased sponsorship when agreements come up for renewal in the short term. Broadcast revenue is probably higher than ever, especially as matches are spread more than ever to ensure as many make TV as possible. Exceptional revenues (e.g. transfers) I expect will be hit for a while, but things like the Deloitte football money league are all quoted before exceptional revenues, anyway, so Matchday is the biggest impact. Fees obviously works both ways - reduced costts as well as reduced income. You'd be brave to say net 0 impact, but actually for clubs like Inter who, most recently, are net spenders rather than net sellers, we'd be better off with reduced fees.

Clubs also typically (I assume) have decent revolving credit facilities. A lot of prize money, broaadcast revenue, etc is typically paid out very 'lumpily', I dont see how you'd run a football business without a decent revolving credit facility.

Infact, I bet you can make an argument that on a cashflow basis we're worse off now than ever under FFP - for example if we sign Lukaku for 4 payments of 20m in 4 consecutive years, and after 2 years sell him for 4 payments of 25m, under FFP we'd be booking 60m plusvalenza in season 3, whereas on a cashflow basis, we'd be booking +5m +5m, +25m, +25m. It's almost specifically because FFP didnt care about cashflow that we could use plusvalenza to fund our activity, with an appropriate debt facility


Football clubs in general, rightly, should be run as cost-neutral if not slightly profit making imho. I dont want to see Inter do a Leeds/Anzhi/Monaco through either bad decisions or aa disinterested sugar daddy.

This club could easily be profitable - if you ignore the impact of COVID and remove from our balance sheet the costs associated to some of the players I repeatedly identify, we'd ALREADY be profitable! That's ignoring the potential impcat of a new shirt sponsor, additional sponsorship revenues, and CL prize money.

Over the next 2 years, if we decided not to spend too much money, our amortisation bill could probably fall by more than half. From a balance sheet perspective, we suddenly look VERY profitable as a club.



There's no reasaon for Inter, or UEFA, to revert back to the early 00s and 90s with sugar daddies.


The easiest thing for UEFA to do is announce a retrospective waiver of FFP for 19/20, 20/21 and potentially 21/22. With that, FFP sa it was previously could go back in I suspect.



I know they've said they will look at FFP, but I'd be very surprised if, when something new is announced, they dont taackle for example equity increases, debt-to-equity conversions, etc. Shit, you could enforce a rule that a club needs to be cashflow neutral without any additional shareholder funds. Bam. That's FFP brought back in already.

- - - Updated - - -

One thing yo add just thinking about it. On a cash flow basis we are in real trouble too. We have substantial amounts of revenue that have been booked onto the balance sheet (accounting basis) that haven't actually been paid yet. Off hand it peaked at like 90mil a season or two ago I think the most recent numbers are much better but still tens of millions we've functionally spent but not actually been given

[Bluenine]

Like I said, the sudden decline in revenues due to COVID is the final nail in the FFP coffin - FFP was on its deathbed even before COVID. City's win had struck a lethal blow on its legal standing. Now even UEFA has admitted to its demise. Transfer market plusvalenza is no longer anything other than what it used to be before FFP, just one of the P&L levers. My guess is that UEFA will now come up with something new which focuses on balance sheet viability measures, maybe something to do with liquidity or wage caps - that would be logical. For the time being, clubs can spend whatever money they can afford to, you will not find UEFA penalising clubs for it. Football needs the money.

As for Inter, our issues are largely to do with cash flows. We are struggling to pay the wages of players. This is partly to do with reduced revenues due to COVID, which I agree with you are temporary, and partly to do with the China issues and Suning's financial health these days. Due to all this, I suspect Suning's appetite for future investment to "make Inter great again" is greatly reduced, even if China allowed them to seamlessly invest.

Think about it, all this makes now an ideal time to have a rich owner. A new Moratti could solve all our problems, and also take advantage of the financial crunch in the market. That is what I was alluding to.

[.h.]

I dont wanat a new moratti, and to be honest, nor should any inter fan. All it takes is another round of something like FFP and we're fucked for another decade.

This club has the revenues and potential to be a very fiscally healthy club. I want us to do that on our own two feet. We are really not far.

A 'new Moratti' might work in some short term notion, but it INEVITABLY fucks us in the long term. Fuck that shit. No Inter fan should want to go through that ever again. Inter as a fiscally sustainable club doesn win the CL in the next 4 years probably, but we also wont run the risk of being relegated. If we get a new Moratti, we might win the CL, but there's also a damn good chance we get relegated.

[_OC_]

A new Moratti could solve all our problems, and also take advantage of the financial crunch in the market. That is what I was alluding to.

Yeah, precisely. We effectively saw the great, long-term sustainability of a Moratti-like owner the second after Inter won the Champions league and Moratti achieved what he wanted with the club, which led to ten years of lots of trophies, great players and all in all success.
Who cares about financial security and accountability, the ability to explore continental markets and further commercial relationships and a long-term strategy built on self-substainability, when we can just hopefully get bought by an Arabian sheik with limitless pockets, turning our storied and beautiful club into a propgandaized sporting-machine for a murderous, totalitarian and brutal slave-owning regime - just so we can afford that great left-back and give the middle finger to UEFA, FIFA and every other club that isn't purely based on financial doping. Imagine being the new Manchester City or PSG.
Yummy yummy.

If anything, Covid has shown that the footballing world is more financially stable than ever, with clubs not at all being dependent on TV or fan revenue, and instead easily being able to pay their employees without momentary, and in totality relatively small, sources of revenue. Now, exactly now, when the world economy has never been better, is the time to take the foot off the brakes and let the big clubs do whatever the fuck they want, leaving everyone behind in the wake because they happen to have the richest owners or find loopholes in the regulations so seedy and inflated sponsorships turn into the one way you can win titles. Perhaps even the Super League can get going as fast as possible, turning the sport into the same 24 clubs meeting each other over and over again, meaning national football and localized fanbases lose all sense of purpose, in turning meaning that 12 year olds in Bangladesh and Nigeria effictively become the main proprietors of the footballing fanbase.

I for one can't wait.

[Bluenine]

I dont wanat a new moratti, and to be honest, nor should any inter fan. All it takes is another round of something like FFP and we're fucked for another decade.

This club has the revenues and potential to be a very fiscally healthy club. I want us to do that on our own two feet. We are really not far.

A 'new Moratti' might work in some short term notion, but it INEVITABLY fucks us in the long term. Fuck that shit. No Inter fan should want to go through that ever again. Inter as a fiscally sustainable club doesn win the CL in the next 4 years probably, but we also wont run the risk of being relegated. If we get a new Moratti, we might win the CL, but there's also a damn good chance we get relegated.

By a "new Moratti", I mean like what City or PSG have got. Financial stability and spending power beyond our club's revenues. I obviously don't mean someone exactly like Moratti who thinks only from his heart and not his head.

But where I do disagree with you is that we are very close to being a fiscally healthy club. You are right that we were getting there before China and Covid fucked us over, but not anymore. The China sponsorship bubble has burst due to restrictions etc, and COVID has further fucked the revenues in the near term. Stadium plans are indefinitely postponed, and Suning's appetite to invest further is suspect at best. So the chance of becoming a top European club AND becoming a fiscally healthy club is not possible in the near term. Now its one or the other. We have to chose in the near term.

If we want to become a top European club, we have to continue to spend beyond our means like we are doing now ie rich owner investing into the club a la City or PSG. If we want to become a fiscally healthy club, we need to seriously reduce our wage bill, maybe even sell a star this summer and so on. I haven't done a detailed analysis of Inter's latest financial results yet, but I did go through the numbers. Unfortunately I suspect this is the new reality for the next few years at least. Do your analysis on our financials Browha, I will do mine and we can compare notes.

That is why I am hoping for a rich owner and some serious equity injection. I would hate to see this promising project being dismantled one by one before it reaches its full potential. We are so close to starting a glorious cycle, hope we have the moolah to follow through with this project.

[.h.]

Last season we would have broken even if it wasnt for the deferred income and the players I've identified removed from our books. We can easily reduce our costs by 50mil without touching the quality of the first team.

Offloading Joao Mario, Dalbert, Lazaro, Vecino and Nainggolan ALONE would have made last year profit neutral.


We absolutely do not have to spend beyond our means to get to a top european club. We need to invest strategically and grow this business. Barca, Real, United, Bayern, etc, are all stable clubs from their income, NOT massive subsidies from their owners. I'd say the core of this team is pretty good, we need to add depth, a new GK and a new LWB and then we're largely there. Perisic + Young saves us more money than we spend on Hakimi, already.

Over the next couple of years, we can offload a large amount of cost from our books, and our amortisation bills we get slashed.

We really arent far from being a healthy club.





I have done the financial analysis on our books. Our loss of circa 105m (cnat remember the exact figure) was 47m from deferred income, with 55m in lost sponsorship revenue. We are VERY close to being a profitable club. This summer we need to offload JM, Dalbert, Vecino, Nainggolan, Vidal, Kolarov, Young and pretty much by virtue of that + some renewals of key players (e.g. Barella), if we can sell season tickets again, we'll be profitable (I havent checked what sponsorship agreements expire - shirt sponsorship clearly poses a risk).


My analysis was already posted here:

http://forzainterforums.com/showthre...=1#post1985845


A few additional ramblings:
* Spalletti's salary is now off the books I think
* Aside from Hakimi, our last window was cashflow low. Our next season will probably be pretty cashflow low as well.
* I think the biggest of our chinese sponsorship deals (except perhaps Suning ones?) have expired now
* This season we expect to be out circa 60mil because of no matchday revenue, but ironically enough the deferred revenue will go a long way to clearing that. Now, of course, the matchday revenue is great for giving us a lump sum of cash up front in the start of the season, ergo our cashflow problems. I dont want to speculate whaat our likely losses will be this season, but I dont think 50-70mil in the red is unfeasible. There'll be additional losses because of no EL prize money though.

[cuba gooding]

Nice discussion here

Barca, Real, United, Bayern, etc, are all stable clubs from their income, NOT massive subsidies from their owners.

I can understand United, they have been the most popular club since probably 90's. Madrid used to have Ronaldo, the most marketable player in the world, while Barca has Messi.

I am wondering about Bayern here. the revenue in Bundesliga I suppose is not as big as EPL or La Liga. They also do not have a very marketable players that attract income from merchandise, sponsors, etc. But they also spend big at the level of top european clubs, and I assume should also have big wage cap. How can they afford that? Is it simply because they have their own stadium?

[.h.]

tbh you can find a lot of information here. This does NOT address expenses, but it addresses recurrant income:

https://www2.deloitte.com/uk/en/page...ey-league.html

Barca top at 715m income
Real at 692
Bayern 634
Man Utd 580
Liverpool 560

...
Juve 400
Inter 292


For Barca, breakdown is:
Commercial (sponsorship, merchandising, etc) - 340.2m
Matchday - 126m
Broadcast - 250m


Bayern:
Commercial 360m
Matchday 70m
Broadcast 200m


So you can see, Bayern's massive commercial revenue is what keeps them up there. Their matchday/broadcastt, considering, latter stages of the CL, etc, is comparable to a top 4 or top 6 English side. Pg 18 - 19 is Bayern and will give you smoe detailed insight.


For what its worth:

Juventus - Matchday 42m, Broadcast 167m, Commercial 189m

Inter - Broadcast 136m, Matchday 57m (note we have more than them despite all our stadium issues!!!), Commercial 100m

This is why I keep saying we're really not that far from being a good club. If we can get our commercials in line with the bigger teams, even cynically say another only 50m (bear in mind that's not just new deals, but also bonuses in existing contrtacts, etc), that will increase our broadcast and machday. Our broadcast could get to be roughly in line with Juve, so say another 30, and the additional matchday revenues might be another 10-15m, that already would give us (rounding up) another 100m of revenue, which would have put us on a par with Juventus already. I think this squad is not far from one that can achieve that. And many of the costs of this squad will decay - e.g. our amortisation book is about 100m a year, and that should at least halve in the next 2 years, so suddenly that's another 50m of free cashflow we're generating.


If we take last season, ignore the impact of COVID (in terms of deferred income and matchday revenue), then half the amortisation book, we were about break even!



This is the big thing - we've been loss-y for years because we keep buying shit players and having to swap them every season or two to try to find good players. Now we actually have a good team, we can stabilise, dont need to spend as much on the first team, and acually be a profitable club. It's tantalizingly close, and the very last thing I want is for us to throw it all away for anoher Moratti.




You might then ask how we're gonna catch up with PSG, Baarca, etc, with their much higher revenues. Revenues do not directly correlate to success - you pay older stars much more, and in Itatly, we get the benefit of the growth decree, so that slashes our tax bill are. By the time our current team really matures, our amoritsation bill could be quite low - which will free us up to pay higher wages. Lets not forget that Barca spend a lot of money on Dembele, Coutinho, Griezman, these sorts of players who dont even feature for them. PSG pay 75% tax on salaries for some of their players (I think??? could have changed). Real spend like 100m on Vinicus Jr and Rodrygo.

Juve made the CL final twice with a revenue probably about the same as what we have now, or slightly higher.


It's the art of constructing a team. It does NOT have to be done for 700m a year.



One more note as well, on matchday revenues:
Barcaa 126m
Real 110m
Bayern 70m
United 100m
Liverpool 83m
City 47m
PSG 93m
Chelsea 62m
Spurs 107m
Juve 42m
...
Inter 57m

It's clearly lpower than the average of the Premiership andd Spain, but its actually not THAT much lower. We've probably got 10-30mils sat on the table we could go after there, but its unlikely we'd get 60mils of increased match day revenue. Dont forget, in the Premiership stadiums will almost always sell out - and tickets are more expensive too. Right now, Inter and Milan owners are being asked to invest 400m each to generate a risky 10-30mil a year a return. At best, that's maybe 7.5% ROI - for Elliott that's a *cheap* loan.

Whilst I am obviously in favour of a new stadium to modernise, get fans excited to come and watch, and increase our revenues, that's why there's not really been that much determination in pushing it through.

[.h.]

One more postt, sorry for being super long but its important to be detailed.



If we assume our losses this season will be about 80m, then for next year:

Matchday revenue (+60m at least) will take us back to a baseline of -20m loss
Off-set the deferred revenue of 50m, so -70m
Offload Nainggolan takaes us to -50
A new shirt sponsor (say) 25m takes us to -25m

If we offload Vecino + Vidal, that gives us the ability to buy a Hakimi-level LWB
Young+Perisic = a Hakimi-priced GK (e.g. 40m+ 4.5m net a year over 5 years)
Kolarov gives us another 7m saving. Dambrosio looks like he's going on a bosman, as maybe Ranocchia, so if we offload them as well, thats another 7.5m


That gives us +15m net.

JM+Dalbert+Lazaro = another 20m


So that already puts us like 10m in the net - if we can get another 25m (e.g. bonuses, a few CL wins, whatever it might be) we could get up to +35m.

Spread over a 4 year contract, that's an 80m player on 7.5m a season net - e.g. Lukaku-level.


Now, to be clear, I dont think we will spend all that, I think we'll bank some of that to help us move our cashflow in a positive direction, and realistically, spread some of the spending over a number of lesser players to give us more depth.

But you see, our numbers really arent that bad. Remember when you look at the 'cost of Inter', we're still booking heavy amortisation on shit like JM, Vecino, Gagliardini, Dalbert, Lazaaro, Nainggolan. Amortisation on them alone is 35m a year. If you consider our ~55m pro-forma loss for last season, take off 35m for amortisation budget on those guys, and then knock off their salaries as well, we'd have been in profit (roughly).

I accept Gagliardini isnt a net 0 impact on the squad, but its a good starter for ten.


NOTE: I've also ignored things like amortisation savings on Barella, Lautaro, Bastoni, other players likely to renew. I've assumed for our sake the amortisation offset matches the increased wages they'll probably get. It might work, it might not, but its a starter for ten. We've also obviously ignored plusvalenza - JM should bring in at least ~5-8m plusvalenza, for example. Lazaro and Dalbert let's assume are basically neutral, maybe Nainggolan would be some minusvalenza, Vecino's caarry value right now is 10m so by the summer anything on top of 5m (maybe 12-14m??) would be plusvalenza. I dont think we will offload Gagliardini but when the season ends his book value will be about 8m...