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brehme1989

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Tether printing machine days appear to be numbered. This was always the case, but I think it's close now.

Crypto.com also got the UK regulators upset.

Maybe we need that crypto thread. Need some place to vent without interfering with the ecosystem :lol:
 
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Harpsabu

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Tesla has went up 13% in the last month and in the last 5 days up 7% alone, even after recalling over half a million cars for safety issues. How does this make sense!? Lol it recalled as many cars as it made in 2020 alone. Wtf
 
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brehme1989

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Tesla has went up 13% in the last month and in the last 5 days up 7% alone, even after recalling over half a million cars for safety issues. How does this make sense!? Lol it recalled as many cars as it made in 2020 alone. Wtf
Cults don't have to make sense.
 

Pimpin

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I am getting itchy to pull the trigger on some stupidly highly valued tech stocks. Someone please help.


Looking at:

pinterest
square
sea
stne


I am itching to double down on AMC puts, as these fucking idiots will get washed once rate hikes start.

Currently best thing in my portfolio is Cloudflare - the gift that keeps on giving. Rivian and the rest of the shitty e vehicles have to deliver now. Shell calls have a bit more to deliver.
 

Pimpin

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How long until arkk liquidates positions?
 

brakbrak

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Tether printing machine days appear to be numbered. This was always the case, but I think it's close now.

Crypto.com also got the UK regulators upset.

Maybe we need that crypto thread. Need some place to vent without interfering with the ecosystem :lol:
Lmao crypto Boyz don't vent
 
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Adriano@10

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Guys, I'm a stupid POS and again ask for some help...

I'm saving a lot of money each month but just putting it into savings so it's losing value.
Any good s&s isas in the UK to use? I wouldn't mind a fund manager looking after it because I'm clueless.
I've been looking into the s&p 500 but I'm expecting this bubble to burst soon. If we look back at 2008 crash, it lost half its value and took nearly 10 years to recover so I'm worried about that. Also, others in the UK are telling me to do a global fund instead of the s&p?
Any advice appreciated

I ll apologise in advance for the avalanche of posts or the extremely long post that is coming but you guys brought up a lot of good discussion topics and the idiot that I am i actually worked more the last couple of days so that i can enjoy inter today now i m just gonna waste those two houres posting on here..
Gonna start with Harpsabu....
First of i m pretty sure your off by like 4 years not sure if you checked the wrong index but the S&P 500 recovered within 6 years from 2007. Then you also have to consider that those 6 years to recover and that 50% retraction really only matter if you buy the Peak if you buy earlier or later the recovery period will be shorter and the max loss lower.
Second problem here is that unless you invest in a completely anti cyclical ETF it really wont mater much as if the sp 500 drops 50% there wont be many places to hide out. As in even if the fin crisis in 2007 clearly had it s roots in the US it pulled down worldwide markets with it. One might argue that it fucked up the EU Markets even more than it did the US.....
So really hiding from a crash while staying invested is extremely hard, for example lets say you buy something completely anti cyclical that has a negative correlation to the sp 500 the problem is your gonna lose money till the crash happens, and again timing the market is a bitch.
For example look at Chanos and Kynikos Chanos in my book is probably the greates short seller ever, but his fund performance in between crashes is atrocious.

Basically im not sure it is possible to not bleed when your long during a 50% sp 500 retraction...Wel it s possible ofcourse but you d have to be short you d have to time the market and you d have to take a shit tonn of more risk than simply buying a sp 500 ETF.

That being said i m not into ETF s as in i dont trade em as i think i can do better personally and i dont buy em for my clients as i fell like that would be fucking them over if they wanna add a ETF they can do it directly i dont need to double charge em for that. Still think they offer the best risk reward profiles for Retail customers who wanna do teir trading themselfes and not hire a professional.
I guess Pimp gave you a couple of good picks he knows what he s talking about all i could add is you d have to search for a high quality ETF that does not carry any exposure to EV/Crypto and only SAAS where that model actually makes sense and that are not crayze overvalued.

My other tip which is easier would be to just buy once a month no matter what... Like this you ll average up and down with the market limits chances that your buy in is at the top and increase the chances that you buy close to the bottom. Also it eliminates FOMO and panic...
As long as you stick to that plan you ll make a decent return.....

On professionals well my selfe being one i m in a love hate relation with my industrie i think there are so many fucken charlatans who will hold ETFs for you and just follow trends to not look stupid even if they know their buying bubly stuff
On the other hand i know a couple of guys in this industry who i hold in extremly high esteem and who are doing amazing jobs for their clients.
I also want to say if you have a friend who does this and you really trust him it might be a good idea... Again from personal experience i have some friends who are just you do this we trust you and they re a joy to work with. Then you have those friends who call you once a fucken month to ask you why the fuck your not holding tesla for em and that really strains the friendship....

Bottom line the easiest way imho is to just buy the sp 500 or even a global ETF and just buy once a months or once every two months basically when ever you saved enough that it makes sense to buy considering the trading fees.

Hope this helps a bit...

Also i ll be back to shit on tesla and crypto in just a bit
 
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Harpsabu

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I ll apologise in advance for the avalanche of posts or the extremely long post that is coming but you guys brought up a lot of good discussion topics and the idiot that I am i actually worked more the last couple of days so that i can enjoy inter today now i m just gonna waste those two houres posting on here..
Gonna start with Harpsabu....
First of i m pretty sure your off by like 4 years not sure if you checked the wrong index but the S&P 500 recovered within 6 years from 2007. Then you also have to consider that those 6 years to recover and that 50% retraction really only matter if you buy the Peak if you buy earlier or later the recovery period will be shorter and the max loss lower.
Second problem here is that unless you invest in a completely anti cyclical ETF it really wont mater much as if the sp 500 drops 50% there wont be many places to hide out. As in even if the fin crisis in 2007 clearly had it s roots in the US it pulled down worldwide markets with it. One might argue that it fucked up the EU Markets even more than it did the US.....
So really hiding from a crash while staying invested is extremely hard, for example lets say you buy something completely anti cyclical that has a negative correlation to the sp 500 the problem is your gonna lose money till the crash happens, and again timing the market is a bitch.
For example look at Chanos and Kynikos Chanos in my book is probably the greates short seller ever, but his fund performance in between crashes is atrocious.

Basically im not sure it is possible to not bleed when your long during a 50% sp 500 retraction...Wel it s possible ofcourse but you d have to be short you d have to time the market and you d have to take a shit tonn of more risk than simply buying a sp 500 ETF.

That being said i m not into ETF s as in i dont trade em as i think i can do better personally and i dont buy em for my clients as i fell like that would be fucking them over if they wanna add a ETF they can do it directly i dont need to double charge em for that. Still think they offer the best risk reward profiles for Retail customers who wanna do teir trading themselfes and not hire a professional.
I guess Pimp gave you a couple of good picks he knows what he s talking about all i could add is you d have to search for a high quality ETF that does not carry any exposure to EV/Crypto and only SAAS where that model actually makes sense and that are not crayze overvalued.

My other tip which is easier would be to just buy once a month no matter what... Like this you ll average up and down with the market limits chances that your buy in is at the top and increase the chances that you buy close to the bottom. Also it eliminates FOMO and panic...
As long as you stick to that plan you ll make a decent return.....

On professionals well my selfe being one i m in a love hate relation with my industrie i think there are so many fucken charlatans who will hold ETFs for you and just follow trends to not look stupid even if they know their buying bubly stuff
On the other hand i know a couple of guys in this industry who i hold in extremly high esteem and who are doing amazing jobs for their clients.
I also want to say if you have a friend who does this and you really trust him it might be a good idea... Again from personal experience i have some friends who are just you do this we trust you and they re a joy to work with. Then you have those friends who call you once a fucken month to ask you why the fuck your not holding tesla for em and that really strains the friendship....

Bottom line the easiest way imho is to just buy the sp 500 or even a global ETF and just buy once a months or once every two months basically when ever you saved enough that it makes sense to buy considering the trading fees.

Hope this helps a bit...

Also i ll be back to shit on tesla and crypto in just a bit
Awesome, thanks man. Yes currently I just out a chunk of salary into savings. My plan is to take a bit of that every month and just invest the same amount each month into like the s&p 500 like you said.

I was off on the years of the crash and yeah, Europe markets were also hit hard which is why I find it weird a lot of people were advising me to invest in Europe markets rather than the s&p 500 in fear of a crash.
 
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Adriano@10

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Awesome, thanks man. Yes currently I just out a chunk of salary into savings. My plan is to take a bit of that every month and just invest the same amount each month into like the s&p 500 like you said.

I was off on the years of the crash and yeah, Europe markets were also hit hard which is why I find it weird a lot of people were advising me to invest in Europe markets rather than the s&p 500 in fear of a crash.
No worries man....

Well european Markets seem more defensive as they trade at a lower multiples than the sp 500 but they re still positively correlated with the SP 500 but that is partly due to Europe been pretty devote of Tech companies that can justify trading at those crayze multiples. I d also argue that EU markets are just less popular the go to market for every retail trader that is not living in the US/EU or China is the US market and the more market partiipants the higher multiples you will trade at as this is a game where optimits win as long as they can stay liquid.

Also back the EU banks where havily involved in buying that garbage and that 07 crisis arguably triggred the EU crisis...
 

Adriano@10

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quick thoughts,


VW will pass tesla in EV sales according to bernstein.. it has already happened in norway..

271226003_898609000838309_6858806123943652046_n.jpg


..It has more EBITDA than GM and Ford combined (i wont even bother with tesla)...


271190180_603779884044022_1650992192644030648_n.png


..it has alot more cash on hand..

271226151_441780777617679_3426296079758549094_n.png


.. which they have used to spend alot on EV, 100 billion..

https://www.wardsauto.com/vehicles/volkswagen-group-ups-ev-tech-spending-100-billion


So please someone fucking explain how does this past year GM and Ford outperform VW, why do they fetch a premium? I have seen Ford "ev's" and GM's ev's (perhaps maybe, their self driving idk?).. but yeah they are very behind vw and have an uphill battle.

271073919_434522708155768_7358198707838614805_n.png
LOL got two bets runing with tesla bulls that the VW group will outsell Tesla in 22, sadly chances those fucks pay up is almost 0.
Also it s not only norway their behind VW in most of europe by now. Matter fact VW has the higher EV market share in europe than tesla so does fucken stellantis ofcourse that is only for sales and not cars in the street.
Sidenote in the EU tesla is already below the 20% marketshare in EVs which is the number that bulls are citing by 2030...

With GM the price difference or performance difference might be that GM s Selfdring is pretty fucken good and probably only second to waymo..
One other thing to consider is that VW is a whole lot bigger than F or GM..... As in the growth potential for F and GM is quite a bit bigger if you think they re gonna be amongst the winners in EVs it s a lot easier for them to grow market share than for VW who even if they dominate EV s chances are they re just gonna replace a ICE sale with an EV sale....

I mean honestly i went long VW in 2020 and the SP doubled..... That is the second largest car maker in the world doubling MV in one year, which to me seems a bit insane as i dont see EV s catching higher margins than ICE over the long run as the core competitiveness of the industry does not change and manufacturers will e ready to sell at a loss to stay liquid or to enter new markets.
WHich is also why i exited VW as i think the pre EV hype price was close to right i just dont see the industry change that much....
 
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Adriano@10

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Tether printing machine days appear to be numbered. This was always the case, but I think it's close now.

Crypto.com also got the UK regulators upset.

Maybe we need that crypto thread. Need some place to vent without interfering with the ecosystem :lol:
Now consider whats happening in Kazakhstan and the role crypto played in it...
For those not familiar 18% of the BTC hash rate comes from Kazahstan many miners who had to leave china settled in kazakhstan.
Now guess what happened when 18% of the most useless energy waste moves to one country. Exactly fucken energy prices sky rocket, combine this with a bit of political incompetence and ESG movements which prevent investments in oil and voila you have a government that has to lift its cap on energy prices and days after you have governement buildings burning in kazakhstan....

All just cause some fucken illitarate gambler who does not understand monetary policy goes hurr durr i wanna buy funny coin......

Like how much longer can we sit by idlly and watch this shit just fuck shit up?
 
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Adriano@10

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I am getting itchy to pull the trigger on some stupidly highly valued tech stocks. Someone please help.


Looking at:

pinterest
square
sea
stne


I am itching to double down on AMC puts, as these fucking idiots will get washed once rate hikes start.

Currently best thing in my portfolio is Cloudflare - the gift that keeps on giving. Rivian and the rest of the shitty e vehicles have to deliver now. Shell calls have a bit more to deliver.
Same for pintrest and stne. Square can fuck right off with their accounting their love of Crypto and jack fucken dorsey.....Still dont get how the fuck they get away with claiming any crypto buy through them as revenue its hilarious.

Stne as I ve said before the next 2Qs will lead the way imho as off now they should still trade at least in the low 30s, that being said if they dont get their shit together in the next 2qs it s gonna be hard to recover and we might see the big boys leave, which wel if the news hit that berk bailed it s gonna be a fucken ugy day. I m tempted to pull the trigger on any sel of but i dont realy have the ful conviction.

Pintrest imho still the social media that integrates ads by far the best, hate my selfe for not pulling the triger when they were trading at 18 because i got greedy and then they just sky rocketed on me. Problem now is that my PT was in the 30s.....
ANd i did not update my models so cant really tell if it s a buy now but i m keeping an eye on them for sure and i ll dive back into pins research next week...
Now my gut tells me wait till their in their 20s but thats the same gut that said wait a bit when they dropped to 18......

Sea honestly have not paied attention to them since covid hit but seeing them back at 180 i think i should....


In other news BoA slashes it s fake meat TAM for the US to 7.8 bio yet BYND is up 3%??? ALso according to them BYND makes a gross profit of just 31 mio from their deal with MCD......

Two other hilarious stories braking today one is the VC who first invested in holmes comming out and defending her saying this judgment prohibits innovation...
Shows you how fucken rotten VCs are, no way we can innovate if we dont lie to our customers and investors what a crook. Also the fucker knew elizabeth since she was a child as she was a good friend of his daughter makes me think he either knew she was lying or his DD is atrocious.

The other on is Jim Cramer actually tweeting somethign along the line of how could people fall for holmes and shit when there is a TV interview that is still on youtube where he compares holems to steve jobs and calls here an innovative genius.

Not sure when it happened but accountability is fucken dead.

Thats it folks sorry for the consecutive posts......
 
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brehme1989

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Is the Bored Ape thing another ML concept through NFTs? Didn't want to waste too much time reading on them.
 
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Adriano@10

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Is the Bored Ape thing another ML concept through NFTs? Didn't want to waste too much time reading on them.
I guess so what else would it be? I m just assuming at this point with nfts

BTW not sure if you saw the guy on twitter who got hacked and was crying that all his NFTs got stolen and that people should alert the authorities if they see those nfts listed on any exchange so that they can be returned to his right full owner. When people told him that according to the almighty blockchain the hacker is the new owner he did not ralize the fucken consquences it would have if law enforcement stepped in and actually returned his NFTs.

Like they do understand that once we cant trust the blockchain to ensure ownership then it s useless, as every transaction could be contested and it would turn into a he said she said argument to determine ownership.

Then again not really surprised that people who pay money for a jpeg are not the fastest.


In other blockchain news bukele has completly turned into a crypto gambler trying to raise more money to buy more with his countries money. Dude bought the top bought the first dip bragged about it online now he s deep in the red and scrambling to raise more money to waste even more money. It would be funny if he was not playing with the money of one of the poorest countries.
 
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brakbrak

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Y'all talking about fundamentals whereas GME is ripping it AH for no legitimate reason, fucking hell....
 
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brakbrak

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I am getting itchy to pull the trigger on some stupidly highly valued tech stocks. Someone please help.


Looking at:

pinterest
square
sea
stne


I am itching to double down on AMC puts, as these fucking idiots will get washed once rate hikes start.

Currently best thing in my portfolio is Cloudflare - the gift that keeps on giving. Rivian and the rest of the shitty e vehicles have to deliver now. Shell calls have a bit more to deliver.
Pimpin, hope you didn't buy put for amc as well
 
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Pimpin

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Pimpin, hope you didn't buy put for amc as well
why not?


This fucking shell update ruined my day, how fucking incompetent can they be if they can't execute in this fucking LNG market, that's supposed to be them as the biggest gas players, fucking idiots.


On other news, my puts are in, i hope the rest of the gang pay off like Rivian :lol:
 

brakbrak

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why not?


This fucking shell update ruined my day, how fucking incompetent can they be if they can't execute in this fucking LNG market, that's supposed to be them as the biggest gas players, fucking idiots.


On other news, my puts are in, i hope the rest of the gang pay off like Rivian :lol:
Hahaha I thought it would pick up the momentum from AH
 
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Adriano@10

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LOL now the apes think a BYND short squeez is about to happen.. Can this fucken thing finally collapse getting sck and tired of the everyday crayze ness...

On the short side i added lots of Carvana leaps still a lot of downside left, general market sentiment on them has turned and i cant see to many pumps left that mgm can use...

Also did not realize that chewy got murdred these last couple months, maybe the GME bulls realize that their hero Ryan Cohen wont just turn this thing into cash machine. the again that fucken crypto/ nft pump yesterday worked like a fucken charm.
Also if chewy gets in the low 30s i m getting interested, think there is quite a big market for pet stuff and this is one of the niche segments where competing with amazone might be worth it.
 
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brehme1989

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My cash position is murdered (thanks @Pimpin ) so I could not make new moves during the massacre I suffered in the last two months and at reduce my average price.

But as usual, I have a list of candidates, that excludes companies I missed out on since I went with fucking StoneCo instead :lol:
Companies like Nucor and Cisco that I had in mind.

Honestly, I was expecting a correction of some sort, but PayPal fucked me the hardest, I'm just kidding about Stone but it's a significant hit but I did commit a significant amount of cash to average down, which was never the plan. Only thing I could do is add to my AT&T positions between $22-23 which at the moment is actually my largest holding, but could not get as much as I'd like. Still not confident about that position but the dividend is sexy.

Ideally I want to offload some of the speculative names I have, but I want a good price for them despite being up already. Names like Plug Power, Lucid Group, 3D Systems, Stratasys, Rambus, then SoFi if it goes up, Matterport, Teladoc, StoneCo, RobinHood that keeps giving me nightmares and sell my reopening stocks (casino stocks like Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts, Norwegian Cruise Line etc) as well as Boston Beer (aka Sam) that I'm finally close to breaking even. The only one I will end up keeping is AirBnB, I think it's going to explode eventually and reach $300 in the mid-term.
Other main holdings include Disney, PayPal, Cleveland Fields, Twitter, Volkswagen, Chevron, Apple, Exxon Mobil, Boeing, Raytheon, Schlumberger and Halliburton won't be adding to them. Maybe I should add to Twitter though.


So pending some sales, these are in my mind:
Crowdstrike ($CRWD)
Chipotle ($CMG)
Confluent ($CFLT)
Activision Blizzard ($ATVI)
Blackrock ($BLK)
Visa ($V)
Upstart Holdings ($UPST)
Digital Ocean ($DOCN)
Trade Desk ($TTD)
United Microelectronics ($UMC)
Stem Inc ($STEM)
QuantumSpace ($QS)
Palantir ($PLTR)
Ford ($F)

Would appreciate if someone has any red flags for the companies I listed.


So at the moment my issue is no liquidity and any attempt to sale an existing position will end up in regrets. Don't want to sell my winners because that's gonna mean I'll have to stick with the losers. Don't care if open positions % of portfolio is up or down, but it's a psychological thing.

The other issue is that if they all start to go up again, I'll probably miss my entry windows for the shortlist.
I hold over 80 names at the moment and I'll stop when that becomes a round 100, but the weighting is still quite off. The idea is to cap the main holdings to ~4%, which is quite far off from the top holdings.
 
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