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Pimpin · May 3, 2023

brehme1989 said:
Tonight's going to be interesting

.. the interesting bit is after hours with pacwest "weighing sale".. ffs this can't be good.

brehme1989 · May 4, 2023

Yeap, that's more interesting than anything that preceded it.

There's more coming. Wild Wild "West"

Pimpin · May 4, 2023

Adriano@10 said:
Funny thing is that deposits were basically insured after the SVB debacle.... Like there was no way in hell they are gonna save SBV and let depositors of another bank get wiped out right after that...
Goes to show how frickle the industry is and how little depositors care/know... Why anybody was still running to pull their deposits from first republic is kind of hard to grasp... unless they had as bad exposure as some pf SVB clients had but looking at the amount of outflows one has to conclude that a lot of save deposits moved tooo. I guess i underestimated the psychologie of most people there was no rational to pull money from First republic yet the masses apparently did it and thus killed FRB. Then again the banking is a sector where once fear spreads there is virtually nothing a regulator/bank can do to calm markets...

In other news terrible data out of china yesterday and markets are stuck again in a limbo between shits goona hit the fan we re fucked and shits gonna hit the fan the fed will have to pivot......

I mean, it's the US, and SVB clientele can be protected, no one cares about missisipi farmers..

Again, I am sure u've read on bank runs.. it may make 0 sense but when panic starts people make 0 sense.

Pimpin · May 4, 2023

brehme1989 said:
Yeap, that's more interesting than anything that preceded it.

There's more coming. Wild Wild "West"

how would this effect europe if at all?

brehme1989 · May 4, 2023

Pimpin said:
how would this effect europe if at all?

There are a lot of fragile banking institutions in Europe. Can't tell when the trigger will hit, but at some point a contagion effect is possible.

Large banks should be safe, can't tell the same for everyone.

Adriano@10 · May 4, 2023

Pimpin said:
I mean, it's the US, and SVB clientele can be protected, no one cares about missisipi farmers..

Again, I am sure u've read on bank runs.. it may make 0 sense but when panic starts people make 0 sense.

Yeah but traditionally we dont have the fed bail em out and secure 100% of the deposit, also quite sure they will also bail out the farmers looks would be too bad to "save" SVB and FRB and guarantee 100% of deposits to all holders but not do it for other banks...
I mean fucks even saved all of Silvergate.....
Also questions start to pop up wether the feds are not keeping potential buyers out of the picture cause once the FDIC steps in you can get these assets even cheaper.

Also nothing new from the FED yesterday pretty much as expected i d guess when they pause depends a lot on how this banking crisis plays out..
BTW kind reminder we re still far far far away from 2007/08.

Pimpin · May 4, 2023

Adriano@10 said:
Also nothing new from the FED yesterday pretty much as expected i d guess when they pause depends a lot on how this banking crisis plays out..
BTW kind reminder we re still far far far away from 2007/08.

precisely my thoughts, we are not even talking about the quality of their loan book.. how much commercial real estate they have.. fuckkkk

Nerazzurri_Ninja · May 4, 2023

brehme1989 said:

Think its for businesses, i would use them if i could, banks in america got bailed out and didnt fullfill their promises to the government, turned around and gambled again. Maybe they should sponsor Fiorentina, have the medici name back in everyday convo, i want us to sign juan sforza from newells, biggest name out of Milan, he was captain of Argentina youth, pretty sure he will end up in europe, be really mad if its at AC Milan, i used to want us to use Guilio Donati from our academy another big name, not everybody wants them or every former players kids or descendants, maldini son got loaned out and his future at Milan is in question, be funny if we picked him up, Martins son is said to be good in our academy, dont know if we will give him a shot, I think we have or had Stankovic son, we have neglected our academy for a long time now, think esposito should be with the team, not sure how talented Zaniolo was when we had him but he turned into a big name and missed opportunity, selling casadei and keeping gags was a mistake imo

Adriano@10 · May 6, 2023

FDIC looking at loss sharing agreement for PE firms that acquired parts of the failing lenders.....
Now that gets me slightly worried... also fuck PE firms

Pimpin · May 11, 2023

I can't say I am happy to see what's happening in the market but I can say I sleep slightly better knowing i have 35% of my portfolio on unhedged (usd) us treasuries

crzdcolombian · May 15, 2023

Pimpin said:
I can't say I am happy to see what's happening in the market but I can say I sleep slightly better knowing i have 35% of my portfolio on unhedged (usd) us treasuries

haha my investment advisor is like why do you have 40% of your money in bonds. It's like dude I'm getting 5.5-6% or ...... potentially losing 3-12% per day.

I am ready to jump back in after it's announced how crazy the republicans are if they really don't raise the debt ceiling.

Pimpin · May 16, 2023

Eu manufacturing output contracted 4%, Chinas reopening and industrial output is shit but yes please keep selling me cheap usd

Pimpin · May 16, 2023

crzdcolombian said:
haha my investment advisor is like why do you have 40% of your money in bonds. It's like dude I'm getting 5.5-6% or ...... potentially losing 3-12% per day.

I am ready to jump back in after it's announced how crazy the republicans are if they really don't raise the debt ceiling.

Yeah its quite nutty how there were people saying buy bonds at 1% but noe theyve dissappeared.

Theres so much difference between bonds prices and equities rn, like u have a shitco trading at 10 times revenue whilst bonds are ytm at 15% plus lol

crzdcolombian · May 16, 2023

Pimpin said:
Yeah its quite nutty how there were people saying buy bonds at 1% but noe theyve dissappeared.

Theres so much difference between bonds prices and equities rn, like u have a shitco trading at 10 times revenue whilst bonds are ytm at 15% plus lol

I am not legally allowed to buy/sell stock and can only do so through a broker because of my job. I have to tell the SEC everything I own and when I bought/sold it quarterly. I can buy company stock as part of the stock options I get and equity stock I am awarded tho. They even ask to see my wife's portfolio.

I was looking at doing private equity with some friends. Tho the bond markets are crazy good tho during the past 5 years. I have done real estate. I started flipping houses with family members (basically put up the money

.... and helped a bit). That went well so I then bought a few run down houses and made town houses (this went really well).

I see alot of people are buying houses and making "luxury apartment buildings". Two not super far from me but in a less desirable neighborhood has rents of $2-4k !! Which is insane. Houses they tore down only cost like 150k-200k pre covid. It is what I am currently looking into.

Near my job they have a super nice office building that the state owns. They want like 500k-1m for it but it's def a few million to turn it into housing. Thats the dream. Tho where I live seems like all the big companies are leaving so maybe not a great investment in the long run. Just super risky if it doesn't work out.

brehme1989 · May 16, 2023

crzdcolombian said:
I see alot of people are buying houses and making "luxury apartment buildings". Two not super far from me but in a less desirable neighborhood has rents of $2-4k !! Which is insane. Houses they tore down only cost like 150k-200k pre covid. It is what I am currently looking into.

Adriano@10 · May 17, 2023

Pimpin said:
Yeah its quite nutty how there were people saying buy bonds at 1% but noe theyve dissappeared.

Theres so much difference between bonds prices and equities rn, like u have a shitco trading at 10 times revenue whilst bonds are ytm at 15% plus lol

Same people who took a victory lap in Jan FEB calling for a fed pivot when the fed simply slowed rate hikes....
To many fucken clowns in a suit in this god damn industry

Pimpin · May 18, 2023

KILLER quarter from walmart.. people may think this is sign of a strong consumer but may be the opposite, people shopping down at walmart..

Adriano@10 · May 18, 2023

Pimpin said:
KILLER quarter from walmart.. people may think this is sign of a strong consumer but may be the opposite, people shopping down at walmart..

Yeah also a bit a mixed bag... I mean the yoy comp does not look to good neither does the Q2 guidance...(slightly below expectations), but then the fully year guidance is very positive, i d expect thm to probably correct that at the end of the next Q.
Also they stated that they have gotten more business from higher income customers so a move down to the cheaper retailers seem to have started.
On top of all that their margins expanded in a inflationary period where people are already pissed of at corporations for blaming inflation for higher prices but then they show higher margins on their books.

Looks like a very good Q at a glance if you go a bit deeper imho it clearly shows as you pointed out that the consumer is getting weaker, and question is how long can walmart keep margins or raise margins when the consumer is suffering.

ALso if you look at TGTs report you d come to a similar conclusion...
Still a bit early to be certain but we ve had a couple of Q1 reports now that hint at the consumer getting weaker...

That being said i still have DG on my watchlist

SIde notte: cant be the only one who gets pissed at mgm of basically every company i ve looked at their Q1 wasting a shit ton of time hyping up AI and promoting their own solutions.... Get fucked you morons. It s the new crypto/Metaverse....
Not saying it s as useless as crypto but common....

Pimpin · May 22, 2023

S&P 500 firms with >50% of revenue in US have seen their revenue grow 2.6%
Firms with <50 % of revenue in US have seen their revenue slide by 10%..

please keep selling dollars

Adriano@10 · May 22, 2023

Pimpin said:
S&P 500 firms with >50% of revenue in US have seen their revenue grow 2.6%
Firms with <50 % of revenue in US have seen their revenue slide by 10%..

please keep selling dollars

LOL that fucken dollar dooms day scenario is so fucken dumb jet with every crisis it gets loud again.... Go ahead do your settlements in some BRIC currency and see how long it lasts...

Then again US politicians are currently making it easy to run with that narrative.

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