Best Defences in Europe

Fapuccino

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Best defences (overall as 11 players) is mainly a function of #1 amount of goals conceded #2 the possession. The more possession, the less your your amt of goals conceded counts.

I used a formula in excel (too lazy to post) and came up with a rank of these 9 teams I chose.

So best defences in order:

1. Atletico Madrid
2. Roma
3. Juventus
4. Chelsea
5. Bayern munich
6. Arsenal
7. Barcelona
8. Real Madrid
9. Manchester City

Any critique based NOT on stats. I wanna see how realistic this sounds. I will adjust the formula later. I only took into account amout of goals scored vs. possession.

As I said below: I defined Defence = vulnerability to being scored when you're not in possession of the ball (you're being attacked)
 

Wings

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Depends on how you define defense.

Some would say tiki-taka is a form of defense itself because it denies attacking opportunities. So Bayern and Barca would have the best defenses. But of course then anything (like scoring a goal) could be considered defense because it means the opposition don't have a chance to score themselves.
 

Fapuccino

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By defence I mean your vulnerability to being scored when you're not in possession of the ball (you're being attacked)
 

monster09

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Bayern Munich follwed by Roma IMO.
 

Fapuccino

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The reason why Bayern is 5th is because they have over 70% possession, and don't get attacked as often.

Atletico meanwhile, only has an average of 48% possession and they're more constantly under attack, and tested a lot more.
 

monster09

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The reason why Bayern is 5th is because they have over 70% possession, and don't get attacked as often.

Atletico meanwhile, only has an average of 48% possession and they're more constantly under attack, and tested a lot more.

We are complicating the simple terms with formulas and many conditions. I just go by defense as a team and Bayern are excellent at it.

The number of goals conceded by them supports this. Retaining possession is also some sort of defense by not giving your opponents chance to attack you.
 

Pharaoh

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Idk I kinda like what fap has come up with


I would've liked to see this for Barca a few years ago.........


Even though monster is right that keeping possession is a form of defense, this is cool to speculate and think about.


I wonder how Bayern actually does in games where they don't control 50% or more possession, assuming there has been one?
 

monster09

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Idk I kinda like what fap has come up with


I would've liked to see this for Barca a few years ago.........


Even though monster is right that keeping possession is a form of defense, this is cool to speculate and think about.


I wonder how Bayern actually does in games where they don't control 50% or more possession, assuming there has been one?

Against Barca last season and they conceded 0 goals.
 

Fapuccino

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No monster is right, possession is a form of defence, thats why i defined defence as limited to only when the opponent is attacking you and you dont have the ball.
 

Pharaoh

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Against Barca last season and they conceded 0 goals.

True, but i was looking more for an example this year. I don't think Barca was/is as strong as they were say 3-4 years ago
 

monster09

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True, but i was looking more for an example this year. I don't think Barca was/is as strong as they were say 3-4 years ago

Then not sure about Roma and Juventus so high as they are first and second in the possession stats in Serie A.

Madrid and Juve were in same group, Madrid possession was 56% , Juve's was around 52 and Juventus conceded almost twice the number of goals than Madrid. Madrid - 5 goals, Juventus - 9.

ManUtd had tougher group than Atletico and Chelsea but ManUtd conceded least goals (joint top with Chelsea and Atletico).
 

Fapuccino

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Monster CL is not appropriate here, because the sample is too small. It's solely league based.

Roma and Juventus have conceded 11 and 15 goals respectively, while English teams for example conceded in the 20s, since they play more open (save Chelsea), and they were roughly the same possession.

The problem is how much weight to assign to possession and goals conceded. That's where my formula came in. It was all subjective of course.

Atletico for example with an average of 48% and 14 goals conceded was bound to be 1st from the start. Bayern's 8 goal deficit is extremely inflated by their 70.6% possession.

Again best defence = defending without the ball.
 

monster09

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Monster CL is not appropriate here, because the sample is too small. It's solely league based.

Roma and Juventus have conceded 11 and 15 goals respectively, while English teams for example conceded in the 20s, since they play more open (save Chelsea), and they were roughly the same possession.

The problem is how much weight to assign to possession and goals conceded. That's where my formula came in. It was all subjective of course.

Atletico for example with an average of 48% and 14 goals conceded was bound to be 1st from the start. Bayern's 8 goal deficit is extremely inflated by their 70.6% possession.

Again best defence = defending without the ball.

Then how come Roma and Juventus in 2nd and 3rd when they are 2nd best and 2st in possession stats? They average higher possession than any teams in the league.

- - - Updated - - -

Btw, here is a stat.. Rayo averages 60% possession, 2nd best in La Liga but has the worst defense in La Liga with 51 goals.
 

Fapuccino

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Then how come Roma and Juventus in 2nd and 3rd when they are 2nd best and 2st in possession stats? They average higher possession than any teams in the league.

- - - Updated - - -

Btw, here is a stat.. Rayo averages 60% possession, 2nd best in La Liga but has the worst defense in La Liga with 51 goals.

Roma and Juventus only have 59% and 57% respectively. In comparison, RM has 60, Barcelona 67, Bayern 70. Again both possession AND goals conceded were taken into account. It was like a points system. The less possession, and less goals, the higher the final score.

To answer your question, goals conceded had a lot more weight than possession of course. A few percentage difference does not make a huge difference. The possession only made a significant difference only when extremely high figures like Bayern/Barca posession stats were included, or Atletico with only 48%.

On rayo having high possession and conceding a lot of goals. They'd prob be dead last if I ran all the top 4 leagues.

- - - Updated - - -

Another stat, this time for striker prowess, I wanna look at is open play goals/minute spent in final third. I think it's better indicator than goals/season, and even goals/minute.
 

Pharaoh

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What are the ratios you're using? Just curious how much weight you're putting into goals conceded vs possession?
 

Fapuccino

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For possession: I use [ 1/(Possession - 40%) ] - So I just eliminate the first 40% possession so lower increments have more weight.

For Goals conceded I use: (X - #goals conceded), where X is the highest amount of goals in that list + Range of Values/2.

Then I multiply the 2 values, and whichever has the highest is ranked higher.

As I said the formulas are extremely subjective, since I decided how much weight each matters. A LOT of research has to be done, before figuring out the true relationship of possession vs. goals conceded.
 
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