Brexit Impact on Premier League

[Bluenine]

I have been answering a lot these questions today, so thought this may interest some of you...

What does Brexit vote mean for the Premier League?

- For the next two years or so, nothing really changes

- After the UK exits formally, the existing work permit criteria that is used for Non-EU players will also apply to EU players in the EPL. Unlike Serie A, EPL has no caps on number of Non-EU nationals.


What is the work permit criteria for Non-EU players?

- A player must have played for his country in at least 75% of its competitive matches during the last two years

- The player’s country must be at or above 70th place in the official FIFA world rankings


How does this impact the Premier League?

- As of now, there are an estimated 80-100 EU players in EPL who do not meet these work permit requirements

- So as per existing rules, after 2 years EPL will lose a large number (10-15%) of its players who are EU nationals

- Also, the prices of quality EU (and Non-EU) players who are eligible for work permit will shoot up. Ditto re quality British players

- The major impact will be EPL club's ability to attract youth from the EU... i.e. no more De Gea / Pique / Martial kind of deals

- This may make the EPL less competitive in the long run

- However, there will be more British players in the EPL


How does this impact Serie A and other leagues?

- A weakening EPL may directly strengthen other leagues

- However the EPL clubs will potentially spend more on top quality players

- Other leagues will benefit from no EPL competition for the following type of players:

1. Quality EU youth players (e.g.: De Gea to Man Utd, Fabregas to Arsenal, etc)

2. Players who have not made it to their NT yet (e.g.: Payet to West Ham, Pelle to Southampton, etc)


What can the FA/UK do to help?

There are two options:

1. Slightly relax work permit criteria. However this will apply equally to EU and Non EU players, so may result in the EPL flooded with cheaper talents from South America & Africa. This could further reduce the opportunities for local players.

2. Completely relax work permit criteria, but add a cap on the total number of foriegn players per club i.e. as it used to be all over Europe before the mid-90s. This is possibly the best solution for the premier league.

Hope that helps. Happy to answer any questions to the best of my knowledge.

 

[.h.]

You've ignored one big thing - the right to appeal on the grounds of 'extraordinary' talent, which is how they get a LOT of the non-EU players now.

 

[Javier'sSon]

I'm not sure if you included this but I've read that EPL clubs can no longer sign under 18 EU players.

 

[Bluenine]

You've ignored one big thing - the right to appeal on the grounds of 'extraordinary' talent, which is how they get a LOT of the non-EU players now.

True, but I suspect there will be clamping down on this rule once the UK formally exits. One of the drawbacks of "independence", the new guys in charge will be very anti-immigration - because that is the popular mandate that got them the votes.

 

[.h.]

Business talks. To be honest, if the UK moves to a points based system, I almost wouldnt be surprised if we see MORE footballers coming in.

 

[JJM]

Here is a question I can answer...

How much do I give a fuck about this development?!
Zeru fucks

 

[Harpsabu]

Here is a question I can answer...

How much do I give a fuck about this development?!
Zeru fucks

Good thing no one asked or cares about your valuable opinion on the matter.

Great post Bluenine, can I ask how sure you are on that? As you said the Leave campaign was built on immigration. Though i have a feeling many Leave voters will be angry when it affects the EPL, that's when the reality will kick in for them. Though i doubt the Government will want to say no to those bug taxes so going to be very interesting.

 

[ScottishInterista]

Tough shit, its what they voted for. If a football team is what changes their vote they arent voting for any side for the right reasons

 

[Quantum]

Tough shit, its what they voted for. If a football team is what changes their vote they arent voting for any side for the right reasons

Well, Google searches about what happens once the UK leaves EU rised after the voting was done, so I won't be surprised if some part of the public only finds out about the consequences of their choices once they see it affecting their daily priorities - i.e., football.

 

[monster09]

I'm not sure if you included this but I've read that EPL clubs can no longer sign under 18 EU players.

Yes, according to FIFA article 19, International transfer can happen only when player is 18 or above. But England can be out of EU and still be a part of EEA (like Norway), in that case they can sign U18 players from EU.

 

[Bluenine]

Yes, according to FIFA article 19, International transfer can happen only when player is 18 or above. But England can be out of EU and still be a part of EEA (like Norway), in that case they can sign U18 players from EU.

True. However, do you think it is likely that EU will allow the UK to be a part of the EEA? Because if they do, they will encourage far right movements in all member states to push for a similar referendum - that could bring down the EU. IMO what is more likely is that EU rejects all privileges to the UK, just to make an example to all member states of what will happen if you leave.

Lets wait and watch what happens. There still is a small possibility that the UK may not leave the EU to avoid the Kingdom from breaking up.

- - - Updated - - -

Good thing no one asked or cares about your valuable opinion on the matter.

Great post Bluenine, can I ask how sure you are on that? As you said the Leave campaign was built on immigration. Though i have a feeling many Leave voters will be angry when it affects the EPL, that's when the reality will kick in for them. Though i doubt the Government will want to say no to those bug taxes so going to be very interesting.

Thanks mate.

A lot depends on how things go in the next few months. If the UK indeed leaves the EU in 2 years time, then its inevitable that the number of EU Players in the EPL will decline. What is harder to estimate is how quickly and by how much.

Its also quite possible that the FA will look at this as an opportunity to increase the number of local players in the EPL. Once they are out of the EU, they can make the rules...