Economics

[Pimpin]

Chief economist Philip Lane has called for housing costs to have more weight in inflation calculations, fuelling fears that the central bank is moving the goalposts to make its target easier to hit.— PAGE 3


Building on my previous post, EU ECB chief economist calling for housing cost increased weighting

 

[Adriano@10]

Chief economist Philip Lane has called for housing costs to have more weight in inflation calculations, fuelling fears that the central bank is moving the goalposts to make its target easier to hit.— PAGE 3



Building on my previous post, EU ECB chief economist calling for housing cost increased weighting

I actually think that is a good idea and we should generally talk about how we measure Inflation these days. Cause after all the free money thrown into the markets over the last 15 years we still have to fucken throw out more money in order to get to a 1% inflation.
Clearly some things off.

 

[Pimpin]

https://ark-invest.com/research/inverted-yield-curve

very interesting article

 

[Adriano@10]

https://ark-invest.com/research/inverted-yield-curve

very interesting article

Very good read.

But ever since Cathrine Wood came out with her BS tesla bear story of 1500 usd i think she s just another pusher and am more critical towards her.

Like even though it makes some sense what shes saying is basically pushing that this time it s different story again and i just dont buy it. Cause history teaches us the this time is different people have always been there in every boom and they always we re wrong.

I mean could the conclusion not also be that the yield curve can stay inverted for a long time till a recession hits? Cause at the end of that long run of inverted yield curve a massive fucken economic crisis hit.....

I mean purely intuitively a inverted yield curve makes no sense unless i expect poor return in the future.

 

[brehme1989]

Lebanon going for the strategic default.

 

[Pimpin]

..

building on this post, the recent stimulus didn't have the impact on inflation as one would impact. Not even for food. Globalization has led to super efficient markets.

http://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/774651591120179792/CMO-Pink-Sheet-June-2020.pdf

Another point for UBI.

Story for housing though is getting worse and worse.. Genuinely do not know how UBI would affect Housing but it would def be good for everyonet o at least have access to basic food.

 

[syrus]

Lebanon going for the strategic default.

They been monitoring the Greeks closely

 

[brehme1989]

They been monitoring the Greeks closely

Greeks didn't strategically default. A bunch of communists that took power by deceiving a large number of moronic voters did that in 2015, there wasn't a consensus in favor of default.

In Lebanon it made sense as they had no salvation by that point.

@Pimp, inflation won't be seen in the short run because like I said in earlier post about another issue, the economy had an urgency for cash flow. In super duper layman tetms, it is not added money, it's replacement money. But if this persists for a long period of time, inflation will bite hard.
Plus, central banks are much better at handling this now than ever before.

 

[Pimpin]

@Pimp, inflation won't be seen in the short run because like I said in earlier post about another issue, the economy had an urgency for cash flow. In super duper layman tetms, it is not added money, it's replacement money. But if this persists for a long period of time, inflation will bite hard.
Plus, central banks are much better at handling this now than ever before.

I understand, without the liquidity from central banks, a quarter of s&p would;ve gone bust.

However, even though no one is "spending" money, its interesting to see how much house prices have gone up (even if rent went down). The rich load up on real assets once the peasants start spending on travel and things, ull see how real inflation will become.

 

[syrus]

Greeks didn't strategically default. A bunch of communists that took power by deceiving a large number of moronic voters did that in 2015, there wasn't a consensus in favor of default.

In Lebanon it made sense as they had no salvation by that point.

It was bound to happen Lebanon has been heading down this route for some time now.
It's a shame as Lebanon has more to offer apart from good food and renowned party girls

 

[Pimpin]

I understand, without the liquidity from central banks, a quarter of s&p would;ve gone bust.

However, even though no one is "spending" money, its interesting to see how much house prices have gone up (even if rent went down). The rich load up on real assets once the peasants start spending on travel and things, ull see how real inflation will become.

Following up on this, house prices are growing at 25% across the world... oil demand back to pre-pandemic trend, inflation out of control. Looks like a minus point for UBI (though it is hardly to blame as this shit got excessive and UBI was just a fraction of this).


also while everyone is looking at oil prices, I think the risk of further supply chain disruptions is being discounted..

from FT;

 

[Adriano@10]

Following up on this, house prices are growing at 25% across the world... oil demand back to pre-pandemic trend, inflation out of control. Looks like a minus point for UBI (though it is hardly to blame as this shit got excessive and UBI was just a fraction of this).


also while everyone is looking at oil prices, I think the risk of further supply chain disruptions is being discounted..

from FT;

I m still a bit stunned by CBs and policy makers refusal to act strong and swift...
Yes they are right raising rates wont help cooling of some of the commodity prices as we have more of a structural problem there, but for gods sake just sitting there and repeating that your worried without doing much wont help.
Still find it funny that they all come out with very hawkish speaks and then end up doing very little/nothing.

 

[ADRossi]

Following up on this, house prices are growing at 25% across the world... oil demand back to pre-pandemic trend, inflation out of control. Looks like a minus point for UBI (though it is hardly to blame as this shit got excessive and UBI was just a fraction of this).


also while everyone is looking at oil prices, I think the risk of further supply chain disruptions is being discounted..

from FT;

Real-time market monitoring finds signs of brewing U.S. housing bubble

There is growing cause for concern that U.S. house prices are again becoming unhinged from fundamentals.

www.dallasfed.org

 

[sdvroot]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1747289598164640152