Inter - Venezia (3 Nov 24) [1-0]

[syrus]

The ref was good. I don't know why people tend to pull something out of their butt in order to shit on the ref all the time. It's boring and immature.

She made some shit calls.
Not saying she's a shit ref or anything..

 

[Rodani]

im glad i missed the game.

 

[CraigM]

I would probably argue in turn that this kind of stat isn't really sustainable on a year-over-year basis. Over- or under-performance of xG (attacking or defensive) can happen in an odd year but Inter allowing 22 goals through an xG of 33 is just plain good fortune. Juventus had an xG against of 31.77 and allowed a total of 31 goals. Two years ago we had an xG against of 36.05 and allowed 42 goals. This year we're at 13.69 and have allowed 13. There's still the broader issue that our xG against is on pace to be much higher than a year ago (we're on pace for 47.2), but our correlation between the two is much more logical this season than it was a year ago.

(And having a great goalkeeper only goes so far as a mitigating factor. Just one quick, somewhat rushed example is Bayern from the last three seasons. Bayern's xG against since 2021-'22 has been: 38.61, 37.01, and 35.22. Their GA in those respective seasons has been 37, 38, and 45, so roughly +2 better, -1 worse, and -10 worse.)

Winning teams will have positive XG and XGa every season. Last season's Inter attacking stats were unremarkable anyway, but even the defensive one of +11 is quite unexceptional. The previous season Salernitana outperformed their XGa by 10, Lazio by 12 and Empoli by 15. Salernitana had a weird season and also outperformed their XG by 12.5.

Napoli's figures were oddly modest too for runaway champions. Their XG was a little lower than Inter and they outperformed it by an unremarkable +5 (Inter were -1). Their XGa was narrowly best in the League ahead of Roma and they outperformed that by +4. Shows a season of wins by narrow margins.

 

[Glass box]

That stat is pretty amazing.
People here"having gotten used to win" a bit, while in Italy the mood i got in Milan is that people is very happy with the team as they see it as the best in Italy with a margin over Juve and Milan, eternal rivals. And Napoli/Conte is just one-season-wonder 2.0, first let's see if they can keep the 1-0's all season...

Yeah Napoli/Conte are a one season wonder but that's enough for us not to win the league this season. And winning it for us is possible exactly because rube/bilan aren't very good. We need to take this opportunity instead of being content. Simone bottled one scudetto away three years ago and we don't want that again. One out of 4 possible scudetti would be poor by Simone. Going +2 scudetti on bilan is important too.

If the players/Simone had a bit more self-respect they'd won the title in 2022 and now have 21 scudetti while bilan would still sit on 18. Complacency/being content is the worst thing in sports. It costs you wins, points, titles.