Mercato Team (Ausilio, Marotta, & Co), Mercato Strategies, The Future & The Past

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I mean efficient in the idea of the stock market - e.g. any player on our radar has probably been extensively scouted by other teams already
 

brehme1989

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I mean efficient in the idea of the stock market - e.g. any player on our radar has probably been extensively scouted by other teams already
Efficient market hypothesis is bollocks and so is the notion that all teams have the same access, information and reports on players :D
 

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It is, but its a good starting point - for the most part, markets do act as (reasonably) efficient markets - the room for arbitrage is a lot lower in the stock market compared to other markets for example, and you look at pertubations against the efficient market, rather than assuming the entire market is completely inefficient

at the level where guys are playing professional, top flight football, they've probably spent most of the last decade being scouted. Lautaro or Bastoni as examples, they spent their early years playing in Argentina/Italy-U15 through to U-21 for the most part. Those competitions will be *heavily* scouted - it doesnt exactly take a genius to realise that *literally every single italian born member* of the Italy national team barring 1 or 2 were regulars in the Italy youth squads before going onto the first team. I looked out of interest at the Spanish team (at random) - same deal there. Only one player wasnt a regular at least at SOME level of the Spain youth, except Laporte (who was in France youth obviously).

It's pretty obvious - if you want to pick the superstars of next year, you look at U15-U21 of each major national team. You'll find pretty much every superstar by scouting those teams/tournaments. Every single Ballon d'Or winner this millennium (as far back as I looked) was a regular in their national youth side.

Now, dont get me wrong, the conclusions those scouts have come to will obviously differ heavily - the ability to spot talent is where scouts get paid. But I'd wager any player we're realistically signing, or have signed in recent years who went on to be something (e.g. Barella, Bastoni, Lautaro, etc) were on the records/databases of every single major club in Europe. Even if some of those reports were wrong and suggested the player wouldnt make it, etc.


Scouting starts at like age 9-12, like I've said over and over - football is a harsh reality. The idea of an unknown coming out of the woodworks aged 18, 19, 20 without any real first team experience or professional reputation is probably 1 in 100,000 or 1 in 1,000,000 now.


The point being - its not like 'hey lets scout Croatia, no other big club does that', its more 'Do I trust Salvatore Cerrone to make the call on a youth talent to be a superstar?'

And, just based on our track record, my answer to that is a big fat fucking no. Colidio for 8m, Tassi for 2.5m, the list goes on. If we used the biomass from our academy to power renewable energy, at least we'd be making some use of that shit.
 
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mala_lisa

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come on get a fricking statistics and data out of soccer/football leave it in american sports they have something to spend their day talking about after mind numbing 3 hours+ of a nfl nba or mlb games. football is all about right place and if an club knows thatt i is inter. roberto carlos sedorf pirlo berkamp and countless man more
 

ADRossi

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come on get a fricking statistics and data out of soccer/football leave it in american sports they have something to spend their day talking about after mind numbing 3 hours+ of a nfl nba or mlb games. football is all about right place and if an club knows thatt i is inter. robero carlos sedorf pirlo berkamp and countless man more
Here's a man who knows what he's talking about.
 

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lmao

damn the statistics!

if every single ballon d'or and national team player plays extensively in the youth teams, and one of our players didnt feature, whats the chance of that player making it? very slim


You have to think there are probably 40 or 60 half decent academies in Italy - they take in like 20 players a year? So you can say thats like 800 players a year coming into football in Italy, ignoring unconventional routes and foreigners. Maybe 2 players an intake will make it to the Italy national team? Or less?


Being a professional footballer and developing a team is all about the statistics. We've been too generous for too long - thats how we end up with like 28 year old Andrea Mei and Samuele Longo on the books.
 

mala_lisa

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lmao

damn the statistics!

if every single ballon d'or and national team player plays extensively in the youth teams, and one of our players didnt feature, whats the chance of that player making it? very slim


You have to think there are probably 40 or 60 half decent academies in Italy - they take in like 20 players a year? So you can say thats like 800 players a year coming into football in Italy, ignoring unconventional routes and foreigners. Maybe 2 players an intake will make it to the Italy national team? Or less?
so how many world class players inter had since 90s tthat sucked in inter system but were world class in other team how were they stats in inter. from pirlo to berkamp to many others. i know 90s football was about skill and ineligence today football is more of athletisisam and speed but still point sttands
 

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so how many world class players inter had since 90s tthat sucked in inter system but were world class in other team how were they stats in inter. from pirlo to berkamp to many others. i know 90s football was about skill and ineligence today football is more of athletisisam and speed but still point sttands
What has that got to do with anything? I'm confused.
I'm not talking about players making it at Inter, but in general. Like I posted elsewhere, the majority of players at a top flight club like Inter will be regular first team starters in a top league by the time they're aged 20. To about ~90%. Same for the national teams, to about 90%, the guys who play international football will have been regulars in the youth side of the national team too.


I wish I could find the article but I cant - but I read somewhere that City did a study of the CL quarter final starters, and 75% of them (if I remember correctly) were top flight regular starters by the time they were aged 17.

Data and stats really matter sadly!



Our youth team would be much more productive if we actually reflected these realities - if you arent a regular starter at Serie B level by the time you're 20, you're cut, simple as that.
 

mala_lisa

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no systtem matter more from pirlo to even lukaku. they can be starters in one team but in other team they would suck if system makes them use their athleticism more then their skill
 

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True, but choice of system dosent make the difference between Samuele Longo being a shit Serie B player and a Ballon d'Or contender.
 

mala_lisa

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what do you know stats. so what his is no american sports where only certain player can be here and stop and go b.s.. is here any player in football that stand in one place and pass the ball no or hit the ball in 3 tries or shoot the ball no. all these stats are invented for players who do only one thing every 20 seconds in se up plays and sysems. non of them tthink on their feet they even say it i run here 10 yards turn and catch the ball everything scripted. i have 3 tries to hit the ball and other basketball what ever they do. i mean honestlyy they do the analasis of stats and see brozo passes from inside of half cyrcle mos of his passes . so you think now brozo will still stand there and wait till opponent get to him and pass the ball or he will move around and pass it from other positions. this stats is american b.s. sport who are static and have any sense to keep sas
 

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what do you know stats. so what his is no american sports where only certain player can be here and stop and go b.s.. is here any player in football that stand in one place and pass the ball no or hit the ball in 3 tries or shoot the ball no. all these stats are invented for players who do only one thing every 20 seconds in se up plays and sysems. non of them tthink on their feet they even say it i run here 10 yards turn and catch the ball everything scripted. i have 3 tries to hit the ball and other basketball what ever they do. i mean honestlyy they do the analasis of stats and see brozo passes from inside of half cyrcle mos of his passes . so you think now brozo will still stand there and wait till opponent get to him and pass the ball or he will move around and pass it from other positions. this stats is american b.s. sport who are static and have any sense to keep sas
If you think top European clubs aren't using stats, I don't know what to tell you. Every sport needs to combine traditional scouting with statistical analysis. Some sports, like baseball, can rely more on stats.

I know this may shock you, but Americans are quite intelligent. We've been able to develop stats for less static sports, like football.

Check out Statsbomb (UK-based). Every elite European club uses them.
 
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mala_lisa

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what is so inteligent that you can find in stats in sport where you can go backwards with ball or side ways or forward. i understand in usa sport they can only go forward and every posiion he have o score or otther team gets the ball in 20 seconds or 3 downs or 3strikes. but in sport like football where you are not required or forced to have a ball if you do not want whatt stats are needed for i do not get it
 

brehme1989

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Statistical analysis is used in every sport but its usage is exaggerated in football. Most of the important metrics document the health of athletes (distance covered, top speed, heart rate etc) rather than their actual sporting performance. With teen scoutingt hey also have this crazy stuff that shows "biological age", so they can predict if a player has reached his physical potential and/or athletic potential, catching early or late bloomers. So an early bloomer at 13 will look exponentially stronger against his peers but when he's 17 everyone else catches up physically and he's nothing special. Freddy Adu was a casualty of this as he matured really early and turned pro at 15 or something (I don't think he was lying about his age). He's barely 32 now but he's pretty much retired for a couple of years now.


Hipster stats like xG are infiltrating the sport through English media because honestly, have you watched and listened to a football show there? Remarkably dull, they could use the flavor to talk about something "new", regardless of its complete lack of context. It's just a "fun fact" stat that somehow has significance now. If you saw how they measured this you'd be perplexed as to why it's becoming so popular.

Data is huge everywhere and football isn't lagging anymore. The statistical analysis performed or used isn't really public knowledge. Just the other day it was news in Czechia that a transfer was cancelled because the player didn't meet some statistical metrics. There are some clubs that fully rely on this, others put significant weight on this and others don't care that much. It's not just running a few numbers, the heaviest dataset comes from an athletic perspective, which receives a lot of focus now.


Stats don't care about talent. And neither does football itself nowadays. Which is why a lot of people don't really like them, it reminds them how shit the sport has turned into :lol:
 

mala_lisa

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True, but choice of system dosent make the difference between Samuele Longo being a shit Serie B player and a Ballon d'Or contender.
that serie b got me thinking remeber few years back serie b team pescara with 3 best player on that team going to psg/napoli/lazio insigne, immobile, veratti. shows there is talent in serie b too if you know where to look and what to look for
 

brehme1989

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Just gonna leave this here

Mister paywall won't let us read it.

But it's the New York Times about some US owners that bought into Moneyball (aka baseball). Without having the information available, I can tell you that Liverpool's success is partly due to the ownership/management that likes to use data a lot, but also on Klopp. Now, I cannot speak for Klopp, but I can tell you that the transfers Liverpool under Klopp have made are extremely traditional.

What does this mean?

Their transfer range is very narrow:
- Premier League and Scottish top tier (mostly via PL).
- Germany (Klopp factor)
- Austria/Switzerland (Germany's "UK & Ireland" situation)
- Scandinavia (both UK and Germany typical main market)

Note that there is no France or Spain, which are the main markets for English clubs in the 90s and 2000s respectively. Neither a random CL player like other English clubs started doing in the 2010s.

I'm not going to count their first summer market as most of the deals were already in place and they didn't' mess with the setup as much under Dalglish, but the idea was there to make Liverpool a more England NT heavy squad, so they bought Downing (England starter) and Henderson (U21 important member) and apart from Roma's Doni whom they knew from the Champions League, the only other non-UK based player was Sebastian Coates who was voted the best young player in Copa America a couple of months back and they already had Luis Suarez on the team so it was all the normal transfer policy of getting a good young talent and at the same time make your star player more settled with a fellow countryman.

In the first summer of Rodgers they got Borini, Assaidi and Joe Allen. Italy, Netherlands, UK respectively. Then we sold them Coutinho in January and they also got Sturridge from Chelsea. These were all pretty 'standard' moves of young talents, part of their policy at the time as they were renewing the squad (Maxi Rodriguez, Bellamy, Kuyt, Aurelio, Aquilani and later Doni and Joe Cole out, all over 30 except for Aquilani who was 28 but had the body of a 48 year old). Attributing to anything other than "squad renewal policy" would be reaching.
They kept going the traditional PL way (buying talents from Spain, France and Portugal or CL participants) under Rodgers but it mostly failed.
In his last summer, the only transfer from abroad was Roberto Firmino. Everyone else was a domestic signing. Klopp's first signing was actually Marko Grujic, a player we were also very close to signing as well. Not really a good transfer for Liverpool, don't recall if he ever played there.


Klopp's first summer:
- Sadio Mane (Southampton, PL)
- Georginio Wijnaldum (Newcastle, PL)
- Loris Karius (Mainz, BL)
- Joel Matip (Schalke, BL)
- Ragnar Klavan (Augsburg, BL)
- Alex Manninger (Augsburg, BL) [plus many years in England]

Klopp's second summer:
- Mohammed Salah (Roma, Serie A) [former PL player]
- Andrew Robertson (Hull, PL)
- Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain (Arsenal, PL)
- Virgil Van Dijk (Southampton, PL)

Klopp's third summer:
- Naby Keita (Leipzig, BL)
- Alisson (Roma, Serie A) - CL opponent from previous year
- Fabinho (Monaco, Ligue 1) - first transfer that's out of the norm, CL player
- Xherdan Shaqiri (Stoke, PL)

Klopp's fourth summer, following a Champions League victory:
- Adrian (West Ham, PL)
- Takumi Minamino (Salzburg, Austria)

Klopp's fifth summer, covid season, right after the PL victory:
- Kostas Tsimikas (Olympiakos, Greece) - CL participant
- Thiago (Bayern, BL)
- Diogo Jota (Wolves, PL)

Klopp's sixth summer, this season thus far:
- Ibrahima Konate (Leipzig, Germany)


Reason I mention all this? It's the standard recipe. You may add the stat spices all you want, but they didn't really go out of the norm. All those transfers came from where they'd come from in any other era, and actually it's below the average for the current era. Only three "random" CL players were signed out of this list, everyone else came from the based nation and the manager's 'default' range of football knowledge.
You may argue that these players weren't considered special before Liverpool signed them, but that's untrue for almost all of them. They had to shake off interest for the majority of them and overpay for several others.

Liverpool's transfer board consists of a few people, one of which is Klopp, whose say is the strongest of them all, apart from the financial aspects.
At Manchester United for example other kind of data is used and Woodward used to be the chair of that and the coach was there just to make suggestions, but his say wasn't as important as the financial implications of any potential deal. Being a public traded company, Man Utd wanted to maximize revenue more than creating a team that the coach would like to coach.



If you want to see how a proper "analytics" scouting work, check out RB Salzburg in Austria, Midtjylland in Denmark, Brentford in England (not as much, but more than most in PL) and perhaps PSV in the Netherlands.
Everyone uses data analytics, but when it comes to squad building and recruiting, the list is still fairly short, especially the successful ones.
 

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Wew, what a long discussion you guys have.

I think the best example for proper market strategy in Serie A are Sassuolo, Atalanta, then Inter.

Inter because Marotta of couse, without him we become one of the worst in Serie A.
Sassuolo, not only for player, but with coach too, whenever they change coach, the system still there.
Atalanta, is Atalanta, player come and go, but everytime they sell player, they always get better player after that.

EPL teams are overrated, you get a ton fucking money, how you can't win the League against Leicester City.
 
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