Primavera Transfer Speculation

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Adriano@10

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Honestly by then it's too late. We need to be extensively scouting at u9 through to u13 levels. Like I said a couple of months ago, pretty.much any international star was a regular player at every youth level for their country.
You have any data or examples to back that up? Also even if that is the case i m sure the % of players that dont make it from u9 to the pros is huge compared to that of even the u15 and it s not like the odds are great there....

Quick search would suggest neither messi nor neymar nor mbappe were in those teams did not check for any body else also it might be that one would have to digg deeper to find that information.

Anyways my point is i think focusing on scouting so young would be a waste of our resources and probably not be a great investment.
Also it s not like a u9 or u13 player profits immensely from being at inter or any big club for that matter. There are small regional clubs that do a great job with players this young.

Anyways i guess bottom line for me is saying he we re bad at scouting u15/u17 talents and the solution for that is lets go scout u9/u13 talents where its is multiples harder to recognize talent and make sound judgments seems dumb.
 
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Mbappe was playing both u17 and u19 before being promoted into the first team directly


Messi was an u20 star before moving to the first team

Look at the current Italy national team for example, basically all of the regular players were regularly playing for Italy youth teams. Iirc when I did the stat I did the same for like England France Spain and Germany and it's pretty universal.

Once you hot 13/14, it's less about recognising talent more about nurturing it imho


And yeah I agree with you, many u9s won't make it the funnel is huge and very narrow, but by 15/16/17/18 you're paying big premiums for potential stars. Look at colidio, tassi, salcedo as examples
 

Corrode

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anybody knows what the progress Suning did so far on investing youth sector?
 

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anybody knows what the progress Suning did so far on investing youth sector?
I don't know about the financial side of it but sportingly I guess they are doing well since we just won the Primavera Scudetto.
 

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I think they invested quite a lot on infrastructure like the training pitches etc. Could be wrong.
 

Adriano@10

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Mbappe was playing both u17 and u19 before being promoted into the first team directly


Messi was an u20 star before moving to the first team

Look at the current Italy national team for example, basically all of the regular players were regularly playing for Italy youth teams. Iirc when I did the stat I did the same for like England France Spain and Germany and it's pretty universal.

Once you hot 13/14, it's less about recognising talent more about nurturing it imho


And yeah I agree with you, many u9s won't make it the funnel is huge and very narrow, but by 15/16/17/18 you're paying big premiums for potential stars. Look at colidio, tassi, salcedo as examples
Yes they were but not in u 9 or u 13 that was my point....
Also do the reverse please look at the u19 italy squad from 2016 and look how may of them made it and how many of them you know. Barella is by far the best out of that team....

Again yes if you end up making it to the national team chances are you were picked up by one of the youth teams especially u19 and up. But it does not work the other way around your chances of ending up an NT player just cause your in the u17 or u 15 is not really great.
From the squad that played the u 19 in 2016 Barella meret locatelli and cutrone made it to the senior national team.
 
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I think we are slightly missing the point

There's no recruitment method that guarantees making next year's stars, but you need to look and avoid the methods which are guaranteed to fail. And to that point, at the U17 level, if someone isn't playing for Italy U17, they're very unlikely to end up in the national team

Of course you're right the probability of being in the national team if you do play U17 is very slim, probably 3-5%, but if you aren't in the U17 the probability of ending up in the national team is probably a couple of orders of magnitude less.

Our recruitment policies should reflect the data driven real world statistics of what route is most likely to succeed for a player. Youth football is a numbers game and we need to maximise our expectation values.
 

Adriano@10

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I think we are slightly missing the point

There's no recruitment method that guarantees making next year's stars, but you need to look and avoid the methods which are guaranteed to fail. And to that point, at the U17 level, if someone isn't playing for Italy U17, they're very unlikely to end up in the national team

Of course you're right the probability of being in the national team if you do play U17 is very slim, probably 3-5%, but if you aren't in the U17 the probability of ending up in the national team is probably a couple of orders of magnitude less.

Our recruitment policies should reflect the data driven real world statistics of what route is most likely to succeed for a player. Youth football is a numbers game and we need to maximise our expectation values.
Wait i thought your initial argument was we need to scout u9 and u13 more and thats where i think the numbers dont really support your argument any more, that s also where i think it does not really matter if the kid is at a big club or just at a regional club that has a great yout programm.

Of course your right on the numbers game but lets not kid ourselfes and think that Inter is not paying attention to the U15 and u17s of italy...
Also we should not forget that being an NT player even for italy does not necessary mean your good enough for inter.
 
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So I didn't mean scouting Italy u9/13. I just meant that segment should be where we really focus our core efforts in finding talent. Transfers between 15-18 should be on an exceptional basis (e.g. we are really confident this guy will make it), whereas it kind of feels like we focus mainly on 15-18 and will pick some stragglers from regional clubs for the u14 levels

And sure, but at least if we were producing talent at the Italy level that'd be a huge success
 

Adriano@10

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So I didn't mean scouting Italy u9/13. I just meant that segment should be where we really focus our core efforts in finding talent. Transfers between 15-18 should be on an exceptional basis (e.g. we are really confident this guy will make it), whereas it kind of feels like we focus mainly on 15-18 and will pick some stragglers from regional clubs for the u14 levels

And sure, but at least if we were producing talent at the Italy level that'd be a huge success
I see.. I kind of disagree as before 13 i think theres very little you can tell with the exception of the generational talents but there competition will be huge wether they are 10 13 or 15....
Also we dont know for how long our scouts follow these players we might only get them when they are 16 but we might be watching 10 of them from when they are 13 and then at 15/16 pick up the two we feel have the biggest chance to succeed.

It would be interesting to see from clubs like barca or ajax how many of their talents that make it are with the club before lets say 14 i doubt it are to many.

I have no data towards this but again my guess is that the success rate of scoutin under 13/14 year olds is terribly low.
 
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It is, but our success rate with talents in the u18 category is also a fucking disaster :D the big difference is that U18 can cost millions :D

so time to try something new
 

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we need to stop signing trash. We spend so much money on the youth team and its never worth it. Look at Colidio as an example. Worthless.
I was playing FM21 and started a career with Inter and saw that Colidio was out on loan somewhere, and out of boredom I checked for how much he was bought and I smashed my desk. How can Inter wpent 10m on a 17 year old that has not even smelled the first team? Absolute ludicrous amount to pay lmao
 

Adriano@10

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It is, but our success rate with talents in the u18 category is also a fucking disaster :D the big difference is that U18 can cost millions :D

so time to try something new
Yeah but do you really expect the same scouts to all of a sudden be able to pick the gems when they are u13? When i guess we can agree that it s way harder to spot em and evaluate them...
Like i get your point i m just not sure it s gonna be more efficient or cost us less money. Yes the talents are cheaper when young but they re also less likely to make it and they might already be worthless when they are 16/17. We still manage to get something in return for many of the youth squad who dont make it that we picked up at a later stage.
We also need to consider that the willingness of parents to send their u13 kid to a football club where they wont see their kids in long stretches is probably kind of low unless you see no other way for your kid to make it. I guess for kids that young you are kind of regionally restricted also.
Or you ll have to spend for the whole family to be here with the kid....

Like yes we have to try something new but i still think the thing where we lack the most is transition to first team.. Dont tell me agoume could not have been useful this season also if we had seen zainolo with the first team would we have given him to roma just like that? Dont think so...
 
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sign a player from every continent pls
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