Projection to 86 points Serie A 2024/2025 + UCL

[pier]

Club	Points (Max)	Club (Form)	86 Budget	Points Left	Points Pace
Inter	71 (89)	GP:32 = 21W 8D 3L	3	18	84
Napoli	68 (86)	GP:32 = 20W 8D 4L	0	18	81
Atalanta	61 (79)	GP:32 = 18W 7D 7L	-7	18	72
Bologna	57 (75)	GP:32 = 15W 12D 5L	-11	18	68
Juventus	59 (77)	GP:32 = 15W 14D 3L	-9	18	70
Lazio	56 (74)	GP:32 = 16W 8D 8L	-12	18	67
Fiorentina	53 (71)	GP:32 = 15W 8D 9	-15	18	63
AC Milan	51 (69)	GP:32 = 14W 9D 9L	-17	18	61
Roma	54 (72)	GP:32 = 15W 9D 8	-14	18	64
-	---	---	---	---
#	INTER	Score	Result	Points
1	A	Genoa - Inter	2-2	D	1
2	H	Inter - Lecce	2-0	W	4
3	H	Inter - Atalanta	4-0	W	7
4	A	Monza - Inter	1-1	D	8
5	H	Inter - AC Milan	1-2	L	8
6	A	Udinese - Inter	2-3	W	11
7	H	Inter - Torino	3-2	W	14
8	A	AS Roma - Inter	0-1	W	17
9	H	Inter - Juventus	4-4	D	18
10	A	Empoli - Inter	0-3	W	21
11	H	Inter - Venezia	1-0	W	24
12	H	Inter - Napoli	1-1	D	25
13	A	Verona - Inter	0-5	W	28
14	H	Inter - Parma	3-1	W	31
15	A	Lazio - Inter	0-6	W	34
16	H	Inter - Como	2-0	W	37
17	A	Cagliari - Inter	0-2	W	40
18	A	Venezia - Inter	0-1	W	43
19	H	Inter - Bologna	2-2	D	44
20	H	Inter - Empoli	3-1	W	47
21	A	Lecce - Inter	0-4	W	50
22	A	AC Milan - Inter	1-1	D	51
23	A	Fiorentina - Inter	3-0	L	51
24	H	Inter - Fiorentina	2-1	W	54
25	A	Juventus - Inter	1-0	L	54
26	H	Inter - Genoa	1-0	W	57
27	A	Napoli - Inter	1-1	D	58
28	H	Inter - Monza	3-2	W	61
29	A	Atalanta - Inter	0-2	W	64
30	H	Inter - Udinese	2-1	W	67
31	A	Parma - Inter ⚠	2-2	D	68
32	H	Inter - Cagliari	3-1	W	71
33	A	Bologna - Inter
34	H	Inter - AS Roma
35	H	Inter - Verona
36	A	Torino - Inter
37	H	Inter - Lazio
38	A	Como - Inter
-	---	---	---	---
#	NAPOLI	Result	Points
1	A	Verona - Napoli	3-0	L	0
2	H	Napoli - Bologna	3-0	W	3
3	H	Napoli - Parma	2-1	W	6
4	A	Cagliari - Napoli	0-4	W	9
5	A	Juventus - Napoli	0-0	D	10
6	H	Napoli - Monza	2-0	W	13
7	H	Napoli - Como	3-1	W	16
8	A	Empoli - Napoli	0-1	W	19
9	H	Napoli - Lecce	1-0	W	22
10	A	AC Milan - Napoli	0-2	W	25
11	H	Napoli - Atalanta	0-3	L	25
12	A	Inter - Napoli	1-1	D	26
13	H	Napoli - AS Roma	1-0	W	29
14	A	Torino - Napoli	0-1	W	32
15	H	Napoli - Lazio	0-1	L	32
16	A	Udinese - Napoli	1-3	W	35
17	A	Genoa - Napoli	1-2	W	38
18	H	Napoli - Venezia	1-0	W	41
19	A	Fiorentina - Napoli	0-3	W	44
20	H	Napoli - Verona	2-0	W	47
21	A	Atalanta - Napoli	2-3	W	50
22	H	Napoli - Juventus	2-1	W	53
23	A	AS Roma - Napoli	1-1	D	54
24	H	Napoli - Udinese	1-1	D	55
25	A	Lazio - Napoli	2-2	D	56
26	A	Como - Napoli	2-1	L	56
27	H	Napoli - Inter	1-1	D	57
28	H	Napoli - Fiorentina	2-1	W	60
29	A	Venezia - Napoli	0-0	D	61
30	H	Napoli - AC Milan	2-1	W	64
31	A	Bologna - Napoli	1-1	D	65
32	H	Napoli - Empoli	3-0	W	68
33	A	Monza - Napoli
34	H	Napoli - Torino ⚠
35	A	Lecce - Napoli
36	H	Napoli - Genoa
37	A	Parma - Napoli
38	H	Napoli - Cagliari
-	---	---	---	---
#	ATALANTA	Result	Points
1	A	Lecce - Atalanta	0-4	W	3
2	A	Torino - Atalanta	2-1	L	3
3	A	Inter - Atalanta	4-0	L	3
4	H	Atalanta - Fiorentina	3-2	W	6
5	H	Atalanta - Como	2-3	L	6
6	A	Bologna - Atalanta	1-1	D	7
7	H	Atalanta - Genoa	5-1	W	10
8	A	Venezia - Atalanta	0-2	W	13
9	H	Atalanta - Verona	6-1	W	16
10	H	Atalanta - Monza	2-0	W	19
11	A	Napoli - Atalanta	0-3	W	22
12	H	Atalanta - Udinese	2-1	W	25
13	A	Parma - Atalanta	1-3	W	28
14	A	AS Roma - Atalanta	0-2	W	31
15	H	Atalanta - AC Milan	2-1	W	34
16	A	Cagliari - Atalanta	0-1	W	37
17	H	Atalanta - Empoli	3-2	W	40
18	A	Lazio - Atalanta	1-1	D	41
19	H	Atalanta - Juventus	1-1	D	42
20	H	Atalanta - Napoli	2-3	L	42
21	A	Udinese - Atalanta	0-0	D	43
22	A	Como - Atalanta	1-2	W	46
23	H	Atalanta - Torino	1-1	D	47
24	A	Verona - Atalanta	0-5	W	50
25	H	Atalanta - Cagliari	0-0	D	51
26	A	Empoli - Atalanta	0-5	W	54
27	H	Atalanta - Venezia	0-0	D	55
28	A	Juventus - Atalanta	0-4	W	58
29	H	Atalanta - Inter	0-2	L	58
30	A	Fiorentina - Atalanta	1-0	L	58
31	H	Atalanta - Lazio	0-1	L	58
32	H	Atalanta - Bologna	2-0	W	61
33	A	AC Milan - Atalanta
34	H	Atalanta - Lecce
35	A	Monza - Atalanta
36	H	Atalanta - AS Roma
37	A	Genoa - Atalanta
38	H	Atalanta - Parma
-	---	---	---	---
#	JUVENTUS	Score	Result	Points
1	H	Juventus - Como	3-0	W	3
2	A	Verona - Juventus	0-3	W	6
3	H	Juventus - AS Roma	0-0	D	7
4	A	Empoli - Juventus	0-0	D	8
5	H	Juventus - Napoli	0-0	D	9
6	A	Genoa - Juventus	0-3	W	12
7	H	Juventus - Cagliari	1-1	D	13
8	H	Juventus - Lazio	1-0	W	16
9	A	Inter - Juventus	4-4	D	17
10	H	Juventus - Parma	2-2	D	18
11	A	Udinese - Juventus	0-2	W	21
12	H	Juventus - Torino	2-0	W	24
13	A	AC Milan - Juventus	0-0	D	25
14	A	Lecce - Juventus	1-1	D	26
15	H	Juventus - Bologna	2-2	D	27
16	H	Juventus - Venezia	2-2	D	28
17	A	Monza - Juventus	1-2	W	31
18	H	Juventus - Fiorentina	2-2	D	32
19	A	Torino - Juventus	1-1	D	33
20	A	Atalanta - Juventus	1-1	D	34
21	H	Juventus - AC Milan	2-0	W	37
22	A	Napoli - Juventus	2-1	L	37
23	H	Juventus - Empoli	4-1	W	40
24	A	Como - Juventus	1-2	W	43
25	H	Juventus - Inter	1-0	W	46
26	A	Cagliari - Juventus	0-1	W	49
27	H	Juventus - Verona	2-0	W	52
28	H	Juventus - Atalanta	0-4	L	52
29	A	Fiorentina - Juventus	3-0	L	52
30	H	Juventus - Genoa	1-0	W	55
31	A	AS Roma - Juventus	1-1	D	56
32	H	Juventus - Lecce	2-1	W	59
33	A	Parma - Juventus
34	H	Juventus - Monza
35	A	Bologna - Juventus
36	A	Lazio - Juventus
37	H	Juventus - Udinese
38	A	Venezia - Juventus
-	---	---	---	---
#	MILAN	Score	Result	Points
1	H	AC Milan - Torino	2-2	D	1
2	A	Parma - AC Milan	2-1	L	1
3	A	Lazio - AC Milan	2-2	D	2
4	H	AC Milan - Venezia	4-0	W	5
5	A	Inter - AC Milan	1-2	W	8
6	H	AC Milan - Lecce	3-0	W	11
7	A	Fiorentina - AC Milan	2-1	L	11
8	H	AC Milan - Udinese	1-0	W	14
9	H	AC Milan - Napoli	0-2	L	14
10	A	Monza - AC Milan	0-1	W	17
11	A	Cagliari - AC Milan	3-3	D	18
12	H	AC Milan - Juventus	0-0	D	19
13	H	AC Milan - Empoli	3-0	W	22
14	A	Atalanta - AC Milan	2-1	L	22
15	H	AC Milan - Genoa	0-0	D	23
16	A	Verona - AC Milan	0-1	W	26
17	H	AC Milan - AS Roma	1-1	D	27
18	H	AC Milan - Cagliari	1-1	D	28
19	A	Como - AC Milan	1-2	W	31
20	A	Juventus - AC Milan	2-0	L	31
21	H	AC Milan - Parma	3-2	W	34
22	H	AC Milan - Inter	1-1	D	35
23	A	Empoli - AC Milan	0-2	W	38
24	H	AC Milan - Verona	1-0	W	41
25	A	Torino - AC Milan	2-1	L	41
26	A	Bologna - AC Milan	2-1	L	41
27	H	AC Milan - Lazio	1-2	L	41
28	A	Lecce - AC Milan	2-3	W	44
29	H	AC Milan - Como	2-1	W	47
30	A	Napoli - AC Milan	2-1	L	47
31	H	AC Milan - Fiorentina	2-2	D	48
32	A	Udinese - AC Milan	0-4	W	51
33	H	AC Milan - Atalanta
34	A	Venezia - AC Milan
35	A	Genoa - AC Milan
36	H	AC Milan - Bologna
37	A	AS Roma - AC Milan
38	H	AC Milan - Monza
-	---	---	---	---
#	AS ROMA	Result	Points
1	A	Cagliari - AS Roma	0-0	D	1
2	H	AS Roma - Empoli	1-2	L	1
3	A	Juventus - AS Roma	0-0	D	2
4	A	Genoa - AS Roma	1-1	D	3
5	H	AS Roma - Udinese	3-0	W	6
6	H	AS Roma - Venezia	2-1	W	9
7	A	Monza - AS Roma	1-1	D	10
8	H	AS Roma - Inter	0-1	L	10
9	A	Fiorentina - AS Roma	5-1	L	10
10	H	AS Roma - Torino	1-0	W	13
11	A	Verona - AS Roma	3-2	L	13
12	H	AS Roma - Bologna	2-3	L	13
13	A	Napoli - AS Roma	1-0	L	13
14	H	AS Roma - Atalanta	0-2	L	13
15	H	AS Roma - Lecce	4-1	W	16
16	A	Como - AS Roma	2-0	L	16
17	H	AS Roma - Parma	5-0	W	19
18	A	AC Milan - AS Roma	1-1	D	20
19	H	AS Roma - Lazio	2-0	W	23
20	A	Bologna - AS Roma	2-2	D	24
21	H	AS Roma - Genoa	3-1	W	27
22	A	Udinese - AS Roma	1-2	W	30
23	H	AS Roma - Napoli	1-1	D	31
24	A	Venezia - AS Roma	0-1	W	34
25	A	Parma - AS Roma	0-1	W	37
26	H	AS Roma - Monza	4-0	W	40
27	H	AS Roma - Como	2-1	W	43
28	A	Empoli - AS Roma	0-1	W	46
29	H	AS Roma - Cagliari	1-0	W	49
30	A	Lecce - AS Roma	0-1	W	52
31	H	AS Roma - Juventus	1-1	D	53
32	A	Lazio - AS Roma	1-1	D	54
33	H	AS Roma - Verona
34	A	Inter - AS Roma
35	H	AS Roma - Fiorentina
36	A	Atalanta - AS Roma
37	H	AS Roma - AC Milan
38	A	Torino - AS Roma
-	---	---	---	---
#	LAZIO	Result	Points
1	H	Lazio - Venezia	3-1	W	3
2	A	Udinese - Lazio	2-1	L	3
3	H	Lazio - AC Milan	2-2	D	4
4	H	Lazio - Hellas Verona	2-1	W	7
5	A	Fiorentina - Lazio	2-1	L	7
6	A	Torino - Lazio	2-3	W	10
7	H	Lazio - Empoli	2-1	W	13
8	A	Juventus - Lazio	1-0	L	13
9	H	Lazio - Genoa	3-0	W	16
10	A	Como 1907 - Lazio	1-5	W	19
11	H	Lazio - Cagliari	2-1	W	22
12	A	AC Monza - Lazio	0-1	W	25
13	H	Lazio - Bologna	3-0	W	28
14	A	Parma - Lazio	3-1	L	28
15	A	SSC Napoli - Lazio	0-1	W	31
16	H	Lazio - Inter	0-6	L	31
17	A	US Lecce - Lazio	1-2	W	34
18	H	Lazio - Atalanta	1-1	D	35
19	A	AS Roma - Lazio	2-0	L	35
20	H	Lazio - Como 1907	1-1	D	36
21	A	Hellas Verona - Lazio	0-3	W	39
22	H	Lazio - Fiorentina	1-2	L	39
23	A	Cagliari - Lazio	1-2	W	42
24	H	Lazio - AC Monza	5-1	W	45
25	H	Lazio - SSC Napoli	2-2	D	46
26	A	Venezia - Lazio	0-0	D	47
27	A	AC Milan - Lazio	1-2	W	50
28	H	Lazio - Udinese	1-1	D	51
29	A	Bologna - Lazio	5-0	L	51
30	H	Lazio - Torino	1-1	D	52
31	A	Atalanta BC - Lazio	0-1	W	55
32	H	Lazio - AS Roma	1-1	D	56
33	A	Genoa - Lazio
34	H	Lazio - Parma
35	A	Empoli - Lazio
36	H	Lazio - Juventus
37	A	Inter - Lazio
38	H	Lazio - US Lecce
-	---	---	---	---
#	FIORENTINA	Result	Points
1	A	Parma - Fiorentina	1-1	D	1
2	H	Fiorentina - Venezia	0-0	D	2
3	H	Fiorentina - AC Monza	2-2	D	3
4	A	Atalanta - Fiorentina	3-2	L	3
5	H	Fiorentina - Lazio	2-1	W	6
6	A	Empoli - Fiorentina	0-0	D	7
7	H	Fiorentina - AC Milan	2-1	W	10
8	A	US Lecce - Fiorentina	0-6	W	13
9	H	Fiorentina - AS Roma	5-1	W	16
10	A	Genoa - Fiorentina	0-1	W	19
11	A	Torino - Fiorentina	0-1	W	22
12	H	Fiorentina - Hellas Verona	3-1	W	25
13	A	Como 1907 - Fiorentina	0-2	W	28
14	H	Fiorentina - Cagliari	1-0	W	31
15	A	Bologna - Fiorentina	1-0	L	31
16	H	Fiorentina - Udinese	1-2	L	31
17	A	Juventus - Fiorentina	2-2	D	32
18	H	Fiorentina - SSC Napoli	0-3	L	32
19	A	AC Monza - Fiorentina	2-1	L	32
20	H	Fiorentina - Torino	1-1	D	33
21	A	Lazio - Fiorentina	1-2	W	36
22	H	Fiorentina - Genoa	2-1	W	39
23	H	Fiorentina - Inter	3-0	W	42
24	A	Inter - Fiorentina	2-1	L	42
25	H	Fiorentina - Como 1907	0-2	L	42
26	A	Hellas Verona - Fiorentina	1-0	L	42
27	H	Fiorentina - US Lecce	1-0	W	45
28	A	SSC Napoli - Fiorentina	2-1	L	45
29	H	Fiorentina - Juventus	3-0	W	48
30	H	Fiorentina - Atalanta	1-0	W	51
31	A	AC Milan - Fiorentina	2-2	D	52
32	H	Fiorentina - Parma	0-0	D	53
33	A	Cagliari - Fiorentina
34	H	Fiorentina - Empoli
35	A	AS Roma - Fiorentina
36	A	Venezia - Fiorentina
37	H	Fiorentina - Bologna
38	A	Udinese - Fiorentina
-	---	---	---	---
#	Bologna	Result	Points
1	H	Bologna - Udinese Calcio	1-1	D	1
2	A	SSC Napoli - Bologna	3-0	L	1
3	H	Bologna - FC Empoli	1-1	D	2
4	A	Como 1907 - Bologna	2-2	D	3
5	A	AC Monza - Bologna	1-2	W	6
6	H	Bologna - Atalanta BC	1-1	D	7
7	H	Bologna - Parma Calcio 1913	0-0	D	8
8	A	Genoa CFC - Bologna	2-2	D	9
9	A	Cagliari Calcio - Bologna	0-2	W	12
10	H	Bologna - US Lecce	1-0	W	15
11	A	AS Roma - Bologna	2-3	W	18
12	A	SS Lazio - Bologna	3-0	L	18
13	H	Bologna - Venezia FC	3-0	W	21
14	A	Juventus FC - Bologna	2-2	D	22
15	H	Bologna - ACF Fiorentina	1-0	W	25
16	A	Torino FC - Bologna	0-2	W	28
17	H	Bologna - Hellas Verona	2-3	L	28
18	H	Bologna - AS Roma	2-2	D	29
19	A	Inter Milan - Bologna	2-2	D	30
20	H	Bologna - AC Monza	3-1	W	33
21	A	FC Empoli - Bologna	1-1	D	34
22	H	Bologna - Como 1907	2-0	W	37
23	A	US Lecce - Bologna	0-0	D	38
24	H	Bologna - Torino FC	3-2	W	41
25	A	Parma Calcio 1913 - Bologna	2-0	L	41
26	H	Bologna - AC Milan	2-1	W	44
27	H	Bologna - Cagliari Calcio	2-1	W	47
28	A	Hellas Verona - Bologna	1-2	W	50
29	H	Bologna - SS Lazio	5-0	W	53
30	A	Venezia FC - Bologna	0-1	W	56
31	H	Bologna - SSC Napoli	1-1	D	57
32	A	Atalanta BC - Bologna	2-0	L	57
33	H	Bologna - Inter Milan
34	A	Udinese Calcio - Bologna
35	H	Bologna - Juventus FC
36	A	AC Milan - Bologna
37	A	ACF Fiorentina - Bologna
38	H	Bologna - Genoa CFC

Serie A Point Projection 2024/2025

docs.google.com

This is a thread to follow the projections for top 8 teams to the magical 86 points season. Thread follows the "fuckup" budget, meaning how many games team can draw and lose to still achieve the 86 points level.

Credits to @CafeCordoba @.h. @brehme1989 @Kramerica Industries

 

[pier]

	Scenario	16 Budget	Current	Max Pts	Draw	Lose
	#1 (16 pts) (1D 2L)	0D 1L	4W 1D 1L	19
	#2 (16 pts) (4D 0L)	3D -1L	4W 1D 1L	19
	#3 (17 pts) (2D 1L)	1D 0L	4W 1D 1L	19
#	Fixtures	Score	Result		Points
1	Manchester City - Inter	0-0	D		1
2	Inter - Red Star Belgrade	4-0	W		4
3	BSC Young Boys - Inter	0-1	W		7
4	Inter - Arsenal FC	1-0	W		10
5	Inter - RB Leipzig	1-0	W		13
6	Bayer 04 Leverkusen - Inter	1-0	L		13
7	AC Sparta Prague - Inter		-
8	Inter - AS Monaco		-

UCL 16 Points Budget Projection

UCL Simulation Link (Try your projection)

Serie A Point Projection 2024/2025

docs.google.com

 

[brehme1989]

Can someone torment themselves and do one for the CL League Phase?

16 points could do Top 8 I reckon

 

[pier]

Can someone torment themselves and do one for the CL League Phase?

16 points could do Top 8 I reckon

Updated the second post

 

[CafeCordoba]

Now this gets actually interesting!

 

[Glass box]

Now this gets actually interesting!

But bad interesting

 

[pier]

Updated and looks mobile friendly now.
Roma are not included in the first post due to the 25000 character limit(?), but you can find them on the spreadsheet.

 

[pier]

Updated

 

[pier]

Updated

 

[pier]

Updated

 

[pier]

Updated

 

[pier]

Test post

 

[brehme1989]

 

[CafeCordoba]

Where's the update!

( )

Also, I'd throw Roma out. Then if Lazio or Fiorentina stays with the race for the next month or two, include one of them (or both).

 

[pier]

Blame vasilios
The latest forum software update seems to have broken the tables.

The Google spreadsheets are updated.

 

[Kramerica Industries]

Where's the update!

( )

Also, I'd throw Roma out. Then if Lazio or Fiorentina stays with the race for the next month or two, include one of them (or both).

I'll give this little table excerpt from my notes:

Teams	Point pace (through 12 games)
Napoli (26 points)	82.3
Inter, Atalanta, Fiorentina, Lazio (25 points)	79.2
Juventus (24 points)	76
Milan (added only due to popular demand)	62

Second place is running a few points ahead of last year's 2nd place finish, several teams still in that mix.

Best as I can tell (there may be errors here), this is how the mini-table looks if we focus exclusively on Inter, Juventus, Milan, Lazio, Napoli, Atalanta, Fiorentina + Bologna and Roma (only because some of my notes templates are re-used from last year and I haven't bothered to remove those last two yet):

[EDIT: didn't translate at all from Google Sheets.]

Ok, I'll have to do it this way instead, fuck me...

Team	GP	Points	Average Points Per game
Fiorentina	4	9 (3-0-1)	2.3
Napoli	4	7 (2-1-1)	1.8
Inter	5	8 (2-2-1)	1.6
Juventus	4	6 (1-3-0)	1.5
Atalanta	6	8 (2-2-2)	1.3
Milan	4	4 (1-1-2)	1.0
Lazio	3	1 (0-1-2)	0.3

Sorted by the last category. Fiorentina doing well so far in that respect, albeit the only difficult away trip they've had so far was Bergamo (their lone defeat). Like us, they have a bit of a road-heavy second half of the season - both trips to San Siro, to Napoli, to Lazio, they still have their away game to Juventus at the end of December - they have more questions to answer re: road form and being able to perform than we do. We cleaned up away from home against tough opponents last year, the other clubs still need to find answers although, in Napoli's case, they've already cleared their San Siro and Turin trips for the season and came away with five points so that's a good thing for them.

 

[CafeCordoba]

We got 1W 2D 1L out of home games against Napoli, Juve, Atalanta, Milan. It's quite easy to say we need to grab few wins and probably zero losses in those matchups in the away fixtures.

Lazio and Fiorentina away matches are coming up in December. At least one win is necessary, possibly even two. Napoli doesn't have that many tough matches, they have Lazio home and that's about it (Roma away right after the break is unfortunately and probably a win for them).

And of course we have those two tough away matches are after CL matchups. That's been the theme all season (Milan, Juve, Napoli matches after a CL game). Will be very interesting 1,5 months to settle the winter championship.

 

[pier]

Updated.
- Added Lazio and Fiorentina into projection.
- Added Inter point comparison vs season 2023/2024, 2022/2023, 2021/2022 (All Inzaghi seasons) and its differences ().
- Added stars for "big matches" for current top 6.

 

[pier]

Fun facts.
We have the same points(28) and goal differences(+17) after matchday 13 as in Inzaghi first season.

 

[pier]

Update.
- Juve have used up their draw budget and still haven't lost.
- Milan have used up their lost budget.