Projection to 86 points Serie A 2024/2025 + UCL

Serie A 2024/2025 Top 4 ? (Select 4)


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Kramerica Industries

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Where you at @pier

I won't give a full table but I'll give a quick overview:

GPPointsPaceMax pointsFuck-up points left
Atalanta174089.410317
Napoli173884.910115
Inter163787.910317

Fuck-up based on 86 points of course. There have been two occasions - 2016-'17 Roma (87) and 2017-'18 Napoli (91) - where a team exceeded 86 points and still failed to win the league. At the moment, we've got three teams pacing for 85+. Obviously a lot of time left to be seen whether this can hold up or not.

Up until a few seasons ago, we'd be in strong shape with a potential tiebreaker vs. Atalanta given our 4-0 win in the home game this season, it's highly unlikely Atalanta could overturn that aggregate in the return leg, but with winner-take-all tiebreaker games now in case of a 1st place tie, this doesn't go nearly as far as it used to.

Worth noting that, if we look at the remaining schedules of each team, here's their breakdown of home/away vs. top-8 teams. These opponents are listed in the order in which they play them:

Tough home opponents leftTough away opponents leftHome/Away split
AtalantaJuventus, Napoli, Inter, Lazio, BolognaLazio, Juventus, Fiorentina, Milan5 home / 4 away
NapoliJuventus, Inter, Fiorentina, MilanFiorentina, Atalanta, Lazio, Bologna4 home / 4 away
InterBologna, Fiorentina, LazioMilan, Juventus, Napoli, Atalanta, Bologna, (Fiorentina)3 home / 6 away

Only time will tell whether that away-heavy "difficult" part of our schedule turns into a real problem for us or not.
 

pier

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Updated.

It's going to be interesting to see if Juve manage to draw here in their next games.
20 Atalanta - Juventus ⭐
21 Juventus - AC Milan ⭐
22 Napoli - Juventus ⭐
 

CafeCordoba

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Max points even with Napoli now. Nothing compromised but we need to play better than them from now till end of March. After March, Napoli's schedule is rather easy and they might go 8 wins in their last 8 games.
 

pier

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Updated. After Lecce, there will be challenging matches awaiting us.
 

Kramerica Industries

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Pace-wise, we're +2 over the 86-point mark, we're -6 compared to 2024.

Through equivalent fixtures, we're -1 (per my notes) after today but that number will likely get worse. We only have two "gain" opportunities left this season - we can upgrade an away draw to Juventus and a home draw to Lazio - in our remaining 16 games. All other 14 remaining games, which include away trips to Napoli, Bergamo, Florence, and Bologna, are games we won last year. Going 12/12 on those games again would be a monumental task, and I'm not sure it's particularly realistic.

The obvious kicker is that the 86-point mark is folly at the moment anyway. Napoli's pace is 89.2 points after 23 games. We can join that pace with a win in our next game, which (no matter the result) will finally move us level on games and we can stop discussing the game-in-hand component. In this sport, games in hand feel more like a curse than a blessing and I don't think that's just because of what happened on one awful night in April 2022.
 

CafeCordoba

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Yeah, game in hand is such a bitch. Specially as with the euro games, schedules are so congested so any interference to the original schedule kind of fucks it up.

I think we're doing pretty good, but keeping up with Napoli might be a tough task. This team definitely can do that, but we can't take major injuries to our starting forwards or midfielders anymore. Let's hope Napoli will drop the ball eventually, their game kind of looks like shit, and has looked like it for awhile. We need to see that in results too, like we luckily saw yesterday.
 
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