Pace-wise, we're +2 over the 86-point mark, we're -6 compared to 2024.
Through equivalent fixtures, we're -1 (per my notes) after today but that number will likely get worse. We only have two "gain" opportunities left this season - we can upgrade an away draw to Juventus and a home draw to Lazio - in our remaining 16 games. All other 14 remaining games, which include away trips to Napoli, Bergamo, Florence, and Bologna, are games we won last year. Going 12/12 on those games again would be a monumental task, and I'm not sure it's particularly realistic.
The obvious kicker is that the 86-point mark is folly at the moment anyway. Napoli's pace is 89.2 points after 23 games. We can join that pace with a win in our next game, which (no matter the result) will finally move us level on games and we can stop discussing the game-in-hand component. In this sport, games in hand feel more like a curse than a blessing and I don't think that's just because of what happened on one awful night in April 2022.