We're already at 8 with 6 draws and 2 defeats. So at best we can hope for 4 draws to win the league without caring much about the competition, or what
@CafeCordoba has set as the 86 points target with a 2+2 casualty situation.
Juventus has 11 casualties so far, their best hope for a Scudetto is that everyone in front of them fucks up. It's happened before.
Milan has 8 casualties, which looks less healthy than ours (4 draws, 4 defeats)
Napoli has played an extra game thus far and has 9 casualties. Also looks less healthy than ours with 5 draws and 4 defeats.
Atalanta is almost out of the race, with 7 draws and 4 defeats.
At this rate, we're looking at late 2000s and early 2010s kind of a Scudetto race where you could go up to 13-14 fuck ups. Juventus got it with 15 but it were all draws.
I don't want to suggest to change the whole setting, but the norm from 2012 until last season is probably out of the question.
In the season 2007-8 to 2010-11 (I'll ignore the 2012 season), this is how the Top team standings looked at this point of 24 games played.
It's of course kind of misleading in a way since the schedule is at less than 2/3 of the Scudetto race and there's no indication of when teams played their immediate competition a second time.
2007-8:
Inter won with 10 draws and 3 draws. Roma followed with 10 draws and 4 defeats.
2008-9:
Inter finished with 9 draws and 4 defeats, next teams had 16-17 casualties so we were 10 points safe.
2009-10:
We had the same record as now but a relatively safer margin. Still had to play against Roma, whereas we have now played against the others in the top 3, but we all know that the Juventus also matters a lot. Following games included the Sampdoria scandal, the loss at Catania and a gruesome draw at Fiorentina.
2010-11:
This one's interesting as you can see that the three contenders have already reached 10 casualties with 14 games still left.
We ended up with 7 draws and 8 defeats.
Napoli was even worse. 7 draws and 10 defeats.
So it took Milan 10 draws and 4 defeats to win it.
I think we're back to these kind of scenarios.
For contrast, I'll fast forward 10 years:
Juventus ended up with 5X-3L, Napoli with 7X-3L.
Juventus ended up with 6X-4L.
Next was Napoli with 7X-7L/
Juventus ended up with 5 draws and 7 losses. 3 of those came at the end when they threw the reserves.
Inter finished with 10 draws and 4 defeats.
Atalanta finished with 9 draws and 6 defeats.
Lazio finished with 6 draws and 8 defeats, same points as Atalanta.
We finished spectacularly with 7 draws and 3 defeats in total but that's without any more Europe and Coppa games to go. Coppa semis were in 9th of February, yet 24th matchday was end of February (27-28).
Milan had 7X, 7L. Atalanta and Juventus both had 9X, 6L and Napoli got left out because they had 5X, 9L. Once more, having more losses than draws proves to be very crucial on the negative side.
So while we're close to what happened last season, there's a thinner roster and a more congested schedule. It's unrealistic to expect this.
Current season looks like this:
As I remarked an earlier time, it's very important to see how the other teams stack up in terms of points, if the midtable wins points from the bottom, if the bottom sucks in general, if the top teams only have each other to worry about etc.
This is the current bottom, starting with teams with less than 10 wins.
There are 14-15 games to go.
We should assume that Verona, Torino, Empoli, Sassuolo and bologna should be safe. Udinese also looks safe due to the low number of defeats.
So we're looking at 10 wins and/or more than 19 losses to keep it simple. Even if the actual figure is to check for 18 games with point collection, Genoa just makes it a tough one.
Salerniatana looks doomed despite their recent dead cat bounce. They need to pull a miraculous championship worthy run to survive.
Everyone else does not really point to >19 losses. They have 14 games to go and they have to lose 2/3 of those in order to fall that hard. It will be achieved by a few but it's not clear which and since they play against each other and there's like 5-6 of them, it'll be a very interesting and tight race.
Genoa is another that looks screwed because they simply cannot get a win. They already have 23 casualties for example.
Scudetto race may very well boil down to how crap the crap teams are going to be. They look less crap than other times but that could be because the midtable teams are more crap, not because the top teams aren't as good. Useless insight of the day says that it'll depend if the shit tier teams stop the top teams from winning games or if they only manage to create a bigger schism between the top and the mid-tier.
I don't think any team reaches 86 points and survives the season with less than 12 casualties this year based on all of this. Though I'd love to be proved wrong and see Inter finish the season safely within the fuckup budget at the top.
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