Projection to 86 points with a fuckup budget

CafeCordoba

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This thread is for following @.h. and @brehme1989 method of calculating a "fuckup budget" for the the whole season to achieve 86 points. You may ask why 86 points? Well it is what it is, don't ask. :D

Thing is to keep record how many losses and draws we can take to still achieve 86 points mark.

Full budget is 8 draws and 4 losses (or 5D 6L). Below is a live budget, updated after every round. Budget might change, according to the target points. Rivals included.

ClubTarget pointsBudgetCurrent pointsMax pointsGames played
Inter86(⚠️)848438
Milan86868638
Napoli86⚠️(❌❌❌)797938
Atalanta86(⚠️⚠️⚠️❌❌❌❌❌❌❌)596238
Juventus86(❌❌❌❌⚠️⚠️)707538



Inter's record

August ✅✅
Inter-GenoaVerona-Inter
4-0 ✅1-3 ✅
September ⚠️✅✅⚠️
Sampdoria-InterInter-BolognaFiorentina-InterInter-Atalanta
2-2 ⚠️6-1 ✅1-3 ✅2-2 ⚠️
October ✅❌⚠️✅✅
Sassuolo-InterLazio-InterInter-JuventusEmpoli-InterInter-Udinese
1-2 ✅3-1 ❌1-1 ⚠️0-2 ✅2-0 ✅
November ⚠️✅✅
Milan-InterInter-NapoliVenezia-Inter
1-1 ⚠️3-2 ✅0-2 ✅
December ✅✅✅✅✅
Inter-SpeziaRoma-InterInter-CagliariSalernitana-InterInter-Torino
2-0 ✅0-3 ✅4-0 ✅5-0 ✅1-0 ✅
January ✅⚠️✅
Inter-LazioAtalanta-InterInter-Venezia
2-1 ✅0-0 ⚠️2-1 ✅
February ❌⚠️❌⚠️
Inter-MilanNapoli-InterInter-SassuoloGenoa-Inter
1-2 ❌1-1 ⚠️1-2 ❌0-0 ⚠️
March ✅⚠️⚠️
Inter-SalernitanaTorino-InterInter-Fiorentina
5-0 ✅1-1 ⚠️1-1 ⚠️
April ✅✅✅✅❌
Juventus-InterInter-VeronaSpezia-InterInter-RomaBologna-Inter
0-1 ✅2-0 ✅1-3 ✅3-1 ✅2-1 ❌
May ✅✅✅✅
Udinese-InterInter-EmpoliCagliari-InterInter-Sampdoria
1-2 ✅4-2 ✅1-3 ✅3-0 ✅
 
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brehme1989

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Next game with Napoli is home
 
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brakbrak

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Oo God let's not use all of our budget this year
 

pupivn

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not half of season yet and we use all quota for drawing, one left for defeat ...
 

CafeCordoba

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not half of season yet and we use all quota for drawing, one left for defeat ...
Is that format misleading? Budget is 8 draws and 4 losses so we've used 4 draws and 1 loss meaning we can still have 4 draws and 3 losses.
 

brehme1989

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Is that format misleading? Budget is 8 draws and 4 losses so we've used 4 draws and 1 loss meaning we can still have 4 draws and 3 losses.
He means it in the sense that we can afford to distribute this equally between the two halves of the season.

It shouldn't be like that due to scheduling, but it's easier to follow.


We have to, as in, it is imperative, come strong after the break. Beating Napoli at home is going to be extremely tough. We tend to pull it off, but it's typically a very hard fixture for us and now they have a proper coach for the first time in 4 years and are making a Scudetto run. Last year it was a robbery from our behalf with a PK gift we received and Handanovic pretty much safeguarding the three points in his pocket. They look stronger this year, we don't.

If we beat them, we have everything in our hands to maintain a good run, provided that we also beat Shakhtar at home and relax with the Europe qualification thing. Then we have the tough Roma away fixture, which we rarely end up winning as well. Salernitana away will be far trickier than it sounds, but if we can pull off 8/8 until the Lazio home game, I'll be expect a Scudetto challenge. Otherwise, a top 4 finish will be the best we can hope for unless everyone collapses at the same time.

December, March and May need to be perfect if we want to maintain a course for the Scudetto. If February is also perfect, then we will win it.


I feel we will finish at 79-83 points. Scudetto will depend on how badly Milan and Napoli treat their chances.
 
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wera

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Well just have to do better in the second half of the season to have a chance. Just like last season.
 

pupivn

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Is that format misleading? Budget is 8 draws and 4 losses so we've used 4 draws and 1 loss meaning we can still have 4 draws and 3 losses.
just like @brehme1989 said, it gives a sense about tough situation until next Lazio and beyond, we must win, may be a draw or two but not losing
 

CafeCordoba

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Yeah. We need few nice winning streaks, preferably first starting from Napoli match. And then 2 in the second half of the season.

79-83 points would mean a budget between 8D 5L and 10D 5L. I think we won't lose 5 Serie A matches this season but we could take quite a few draws. Over 80 points should be given, 82p preferably.
 

CafeCordoba

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Both our current main rivals lost one ❌ from their budgets in this round!
 

brehme1989

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We can only afford to draw at Roma for December. Everything else needs to be a win.
 

CafeCordoba

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And now Napoli dropping points. 😊
 
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qb4ever_2k

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80 pts will be enough to win the league this season

Not the case so far though. SA this year is even more top heavy than last year, so logically you should expect to need more points to win it.

After 15 rounds, the top 4 gathered 133 points last year, this year is 136 points. The difference between 4th and 5th place was only 2 points while it's 6 points now.
 

CafeCordoba

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Well last season was then top1 heavy. We collected 91 points. I don't think it will be top1 heavy this season and the winner won't get 91 points. Since the other competitors are good too, those top teams will take points from each other as well so in the end no one gets big, big points.

Last season we had those 8 game and 11 game winning streaks. If we can get at least one of such streaks, it would be huge. CL (at least 2 games) in the winter will affect our games for sure so I doubt there's gonna be some 11 game winning streaks.

But we are the favourites at this point for sure.
 

brehme1989

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Well last season was then top1 heavy. We collected 91 points. I don't think it will be top1 heavy this season and the winner won't get 91 points. Since the other competitors are good too, those top teams will take points from each other as well so in the end no one gets big, big points.

Last season we had those 8 game and 11 game winning streaks. If we can get at least one of such streaks, it would be huge. CL (at least 2 games) in the winter will affect our games for sure so I doubt there's gonna be some 11 game winning streaks.

But we are the favourites at this point for sure.

Could become a 2016-17 thing, where the 3rd place team would have won the league in most 20 team seasons with what we're silently aiming for here (86 Points;26W, 8D, 4L). That season also had 5 teams at the bottom with less than 10 wins and a total of 18 games or less with any points gathered, something that usually stops at 2 or 3 teams usually.


Last year there were only 2.

I don't think we can project the bottom teams point collection as of now with just 15 games gone, since we know things won't remain constant. If they did, you'd not see Juventus or Atalanta overcome Milan which I assume is what lots of people would have expected. And we could see 6 teams with less than 10 wins and/or 18 games or less with any collected points.

That would mean that everyone else wins against the bottom teams, collecting more points, adding more pressure to the league leaders.


Just to illustrate this, below I'll list the points needed to top the league and how many bottom teams did not meet those standards and also how many teams got more than 86 points, plus the gap between 1st and 2nd, excluding any point deductions. Maybe also having the average points per team every season would help a bit more as well, but that's for another time.

2004-5: 86 pts, 0 bottom teams, 1 team, 7pt difference
2005-6: 91 pts, 2 bottom teams, 2 teams, 3pt difference
2006-7: 97 pts, 2 bottom teams, 0 teams, 22pts difference
2007-8: 85 pts, 1 bottom team, 0 teams, 3pts difference
2008-9: 84 pts, 0 bottom teams, 0 teams, 10pts difference
2009-10: 82 pts, 3 bottom teams, 0 teams, 2pts difference
2010-11: 82 pts, 2 bottom teams, 0 teams, 6pts difference
2011-12: 84 pts, 2 bottom teams, 0 teams, 4pts difference
2012-13: 87 pts, 2 bottom teams, 1 team, 9pts difference
2013-14: 102 pts, 4 bottom teams, 1 team, 17pts difference
2014-15: 87 pts, 3 bottom teams, 1 team, 17pts difference
2015-16: 91 pts, 2 bottom teams, 1 team, 9pts difference
2016-17: 91 pts, 5 bottom teams, 3 teams, 4pts difference
2017-18: 95 pts, 5 bottom teams, 2 teams, 4pts difference
2018-19: 90 pts, 3 bottom teams, 1 team, 11pts difference
2019-20: 83 pts, 3 bottom teams, 0 teams, 1pt difference
2020-21: 91 pts, 2 bottom teams, 1 team, 11pts difference


Calciopoli seasons are included because that's what the Moggi system deemed necessary for them to win the league, even if fraudulently. Let's not pretend as if the following 2010s titles were based on merit.


Not sure what you guys gather from this, but from what I see we're looking at bottom teams with such a record being 4-5 teams this season. Which means that unless the Scudetto becomes a one team race, it's going to take more than 90 points to clinch it.

86 points should give Scudetto in a situation where bottom teams manage to get points from more than 18 of their games, meaning at least half of them.

So far we have:
11th place Empoli, 7 losses in 15 games.
13th place Torino, 7 losses in 15 games.
15th place Sampdoria, 8 losses in 15 games.
16th place Venezia, 8 losses in 15 games.
17th place Spezia, 10 losses in 15 games
19th place Cagliari, 8 losses in 15 games.
20th place Salernitana 11 losses in 15 games.
Bonus, 18th place Genoa with a weird record of 1 win, 7 draws, 7 losses.

All these teams are on track to having a season with less than 10 wins and/or less than a combined 18 games with at least a collected point. That's 8 teams so far. Obviously not all of them will achieve that bad record as they'll be facing each other as well, some will hit form at a later stage, but it is plausible that most of them will fail to grab any remaining points from the top 8 teams.

I don't think 86 points is enough, but we may end up with more if we don't collapse at any point. Winning at Roma will enable us to go closer to 90 points if we do everything else as expected.



Everything will look clearer by the end of January, of course. Both for our projection and for how everyone else will fare. Just wanted to say that we need to keep an eye on how bad the bad teams will be, as it affects the season for everyone.
 

CafeCordoba

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Extremely interesting and that makes sense. My other stats following -thread is about specific matchups compared to last season https://forzainterforums.com/index.php?threads/matchup-results-compared-to-2020-2021-season.15639/

That data shows we are currently on track to get 85 points (-6p) if we match the rest of the matchups (precise scenario which is extemely unlikely to happen). Our last season was so good that it's hard to beat or even match that but it's doable for sure. The issue is the CL matches since we will have two of them in February-March. Our January-February will be extremely tough so adding two CL matches to continue the run will be taxing for sure and I wouldn't be surprised if there are some slipups during those 3 months.

Let's see, the season will super interesting.
 

brehme1989

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We're on course for a 5/5 December, let's hope we don't fuck up.
 
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.h.

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Those rivals budgets are dropping rapidly. I can't see this being anything like 86 points for the league winner tbh?
 
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