Projection to 86 points with a fuckup budget

.h.

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dunno what i like more, the faact that we're probably gonna win the league, or the fact that you adjust juventus' budget every week down
 

brehme1989

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@CafeCordoba I'd leave Juventus target the same as everyone else, not because they're making moves, but because that's the purpose I guess.

The points target should be altered if the top team showing signs of not being able to reach it. If Juventus wants Scudetto, their max points is still over the 86 pts benchmark.
I know they need 15 wins in the last 15 games to achieve 87 pts, but as things stand I'd change their target to 1 draw 0 losses in the last 15 games as unrealistic as that sounds. (Agnelli getting serious about this probably means they'll attempt to use the means via their typical ways to ensure that they're on track). They also have an easier schedule in the second half of the season than the first.

After them failing to achieve this, hopefully very soon, I'd keep draws at a higher number than losses. Apart from the 2016-17 season, it's very unusual for 2 top 6 teams to finish with more losses than draws. Even just one is not that common.
Just fyi, the 79 mark guarantees CL football or top 4 finish, on average it's closer to 2nd spot than 3rd spot even.

So I'd change it to 85 pts projection at the moment and then adjust down as they keep missing out. We all know they're finishing in CL territory anyway.
 
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CafeCordoba

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I can do that, later. Signing Vlahovic and soon Zakaria changes my opinion over their ability to get points more consistently.
 
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Fucking idiots, can't lose a derby like that.

We also handed the tiebreaker to Milan now.

Lots of budget left but given we gonna lose to Juventus for sure in their home match, defeat budget is not so much anymore.
 

brehme1989

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Problem is our schedule. If we allow both Milan and Napoli to gain on us in the games between us it mentally breaks us, especially since we'll be headed at Liverpool with a defeatist mindset without at least Barella!
 

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Just realized, how the fuck do we have Napoli right after Milan in BOTH schedules, the first part and the second part of the season?
 

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Because iirc the fixtures for 1-19, then basically 1-19 again. If you did 1-19 then 19-1, you start and finish the season against the sake.opponent and you play the same guys twice in two match days for 19,20
 
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vasilios

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Nah they changed it. The first and second round draws are independent of each other now, just dumb luck we get Milan and Napoli back to back both times
 

brehme1989

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This month will turn out very worrying, as expected. The problem is not losing to Milan per se but the manner in which the loss came.

We have Napoli away, usually the toughest fixture in the season out of the two derbies. And this time they're a direct rival, unless they shit their pants today or in general.

We have Sassuolo who usually have our number, home or away. With 3-4 players that will want to showcase their talents against us (Berardi as usual, Scamacca, Frattesi and Raspadori who's been left out lately).

Genoa change coaches every three weeks and they're a weird team. You never know in Serie A when a shit team will turn into Pep's Barcelona and win every game possible to save their asses. We should be winning that easily but if momentum turns bad, it's worrying.

And of course a tough Bologna outing that we're counting on winning in order to relieve the pressure from the table. Far from easy.


This will be a very long month with the Roma game on Wednesday and the Liverpool game where we need to show the world that we're an actual CL team.

If we don't deal with this single derby meltdown properly, we're maybe looking at a 2008 Mancini situation where nothing will be working and we'd be relying on luck or individual quality to gain the results we need, while having the pressure of those breathing behind us where we almost lost the league despite being 9-10 points ahead before March.


March on the other hand should be 3 wins, even with the Torino away game. Then we can talk Scudetto.

There are no easy games and there's a reason why I was hoping to avoid losing to an immediate rival. Despite the emotional boost a big win gives, it's best to cancel out 'fuck ups' by drawing these games rather than winning one and losing one. Imagine not even winning the one now after yesterday's loss.

Main goal to finish the season is to avoid a loss against Napoli and Juventus. That's pretty much it. The rest should come naturally unless we shit our pants and breakdown after a loss (could be Liverpool, could be Roma, could be Napoli... it's probably gonna be this month).
 

brehme1989

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Given how we're 'allowed' 2 losses each between the three of us, it means that losing to Napoli puts us in a major disadvantage with just 1 defeat to give while both Milan and Napoli will have a schedule clear of Inter and an extra defeat to give.

Very crucial fixture where by simply avoiding defeat can be a confidence booster and at the very least a signal for calmness. Sassuolo game won't be easy either, but one game at a time.
 

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Changed Napoli's budget back to 8D4L, so now they have 3D left. We have 2D2L left.

We made a big mistake by giving Milan that derby win. Not only they are only 1D behind in the budget, they have the tiebreaker against us so we really need to win them in points, while they can be just at equal points with us to win.

Our advantage is pretty small now. We have lesser tough games (Juve away) left compared to Milan (Napoli and Lazio away, right after Coppa semis both). Atalanta home might not be too tough since Atalanta might out of any race by then, as they've been sucking hard recently. Hopefully they pick it up soon, starting tomorrow. Juve is fucking lurking there all of a sudden.
 

brehme1989

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We're already at 8 with 6 draws and 2 defeats. So at best we can hope for 4 draws to win the league without caring much about the competition, or what @CafeCordoba has set as the 86 points target with a 2+2 casualty situation.

Juventus has 11 casualties so far, their best hope for a Scudetto is that everyone in front of them fucks up. It's happened before.
Milan has 8 casualties, which looks less healthy than ours (4 draws, 4 defeats)
Napoli has played an extra game thus far and has 9 casualties. Also looks less healthy than ours with 5 draws and 4 defeats.

Atalanta is almost out of the race, with 7 draws and 4 defeats.

At this rate, we're looking at late 2000s and early 2010s kind of a Scudetto race where you could go up to 13-14 fuck ups. Juventus got it with 15 but it were all draws.

I don't want to suggest to change the whole setting, but the norm from 2012 until last season is probably out of the question.
In the season 2007-8 to 2010-11 (I'll ignore the 2012 season), this is how the Top team standings looked at this point of 24 games played.

It's of course kind of misleading in a way since the schedule is at less than 2/3 of the Scudetto race and there's no indication of when teams played their immediate competition a second time.

2007-8:
1644748513353.png

Inter won with 10 draws and 3 draws. Roma followed with 10 draws and 4 defeats.

2008-9:
1644748604692.png

Inter finished with 9 draws and 4 defeats, next teams had 16-17 casualties so we were 10 points safe.

2009-10:
1644748676335.png

We had the same record as now but a relatively safer margin. Still had to play against Roma, whereas we have now played against the others in the top 3, but we all know that the Juventus also matters a lot. Following games included the Sampdoria scandal, the loss at Catania and a gruesome draw at Fiorentina.

2010-11:
1644748947678.png

This one's interesting as you can see that the three contenders have already reached 10 casualties with 14 games still left.

We ended up with 7 draws and 8 defeats.
Napoli was even worse. 7 draws and 10 defeats.
So it took Milan 10 draws and 4 defeats to win it.
I think we're back to these kind of scenarios.

For contrast, I'll fast forward 10 years:
1644749307427.png
Juventus ended up with 5X-3L, Napoli with 7X-3L.

1644749326807.png
Juventus ended up with 6X-4L.
Next was Napoli with 7X-7L/

1644749344759.png
Juventus ended up with 5 draws and 7 losses. 3 of those came at the end when they threw the reserves.
Inter finished with 10 draws and 4 defeats.
Atalanta finished with 9 draws and 6 defeats.
Lazio finished with 6 draws and 8 defeats, same points as Atalanta.


1644749364646.png
We finished spectacularly with 7 draws and 3 defeats in total but that's without any more Europe and Coppa games to go. Coppa semis were in 9th of February, yet 24th matchday was end of February (27-28).
Milan had 7X, 7L. Atalanta and Juventus both had 9X, 6L and Napoli got left out because they had 5X, 9L. Once more, having more losses than draws proves to be very crucial on the negative side.


So while we're close to what happened last season, there's a thinner roster and a more congested schedule. It's unrealistic to expect this.


Current season looks like this:

1644749752192.png


As I remarked an earlier time, it's very important to see how the other teams stack up in terms of points, if the midtable wins points from the bottom, if the bottom sucks in general, if the top teams only have each other to worry about etc.

This is the current bottom, starting with teams with less than 10 wins.
1644749947226.png


There are 14-15 games to go.
We should assume that Verona, Torino, Empoli, Sassuolo and bologna should be safe. Udinese also looks safe due to the low number of defeats.

So we're looking at 10 wins and/or more than 19 losses to keep it simple. Even if the actual figure is to check for 18 games with point collection, Genoa just makes it a tough one.

Salerniatana looks doomed despite their recent dead cat bounce. They need to pull a miraculous championship worthy run to survive.

Everyone else does not really point to >19 losses. They have 14 games to go and they have to lose 2/3 of those in order to fall that hard. It will be achieved by a few but it's not clear which and since they play against each other and there's like 5-6 of them, it'll be a very interesting and tight race.
Genoa is another that looks screwed because they simply cannot get a win. They already have 23 casualties for example.

Scudetto race may very well boil down to how crap the crap teams are going to be. They look less crap than other times but that could be because the midtable teams are more crap, not because the top teams aren't as good. Useless insight of the day says that it'll depend if the shit tier teams stop the top teams from winning games or if they only manage to create a bigger schism between the top and the mid-tier.


I don't think any team reaches 86 points and survives the season with less than 12 casualties this year based on all of this. Though I'd love to be proved wrong and see Inter finish the season safely within the fuckup budget at the top.
 

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So now Atalanta out of budget to 86 points.

Juventus out of budget to 85 points.

I'll keep those there for now. When they lose points the next time, I might update their targets so that they'd have some budget for that one.
 
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CafeCordoba

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Now that Gobbi drew with Torino, I'm going to update their target points to 79 which gives them 2 draws fuckup budget.
 

brehme1989

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Now that Gobbi drew with Torino, I'm going to update their target points to 79 which gives them 2 draws fuckup budget.
How about this for consistency and aesthetics sake? It will also save you the trouble of having to change everything every 3rd game.

Keep the target the same for all involved.
8 draws, 4 wins -> 86 points.
For the teams that exceeded this, use the symbol of the bracket to designate that they're over the limit in that one, just like in accounting which I know @.h. would appreciate a lot.
At some point, since we cannot predict the season, we may need to adjust to a higher or lower target for the remaining contenders. But it feels like it doesn't make sense to keep arbitrarily change the target for teams that have several failings thus far.

The only thing you'll need to change is the maximum points this team can reach.


edit: our February record reads 2 defeats rather than 1 defeat and a draw.
 

CafeCordoba

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Let's try that
 
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