Race to Top 4

Bluenine

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The good old days when the Scudetto used to be decided by who wins the most points against the bottom 10 are truly over.

Serie A is becoming more polarised in the last 2-3 years. The top teams are becoming stronger, and the gap with the bottom 10 is increasing. The top teams are winning easy points against the bottom 10, that is no longer a differentiator. It is becoming obvious that the race to Top 4 this season will be decided in the head-to-head clashed between the top few.

Below is the table between what I call the top 9 in Serie A. These are the teams against which most points may be lost. Normally I would have included Torino to make this a top 10, but Torino are looking really poor this season so far. This table may give a better reflection of who is looking like a more likely top 4 candidate - this is where everything might be decided.

The H2H table after week 11:
serie_11.jpg


Inter and Napoli have clearly done very well here so far. And this also clearly shows where Milan and Fiorentina are fucking up.

I will keep this table updated so see how we are progressing.
 

brehme1989

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It's just the bottom 4 honestly that's the problem, not half the league. And one or two of them are bound to rally at some point like Crotone did last year.
 

Quantum

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It's just the bottom 4 honestly that's the problem, not half the league. And one or two of them are bound to rally at some point like Crotone did last year.

True, but Roma broke their record of points last season, just as Napoli broke their record of goals scored. CL contenders are pretty much building a league of their own within the overall league itself.
 

brehme1989

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True, but Roma broke their record of points last season, just as Napoli broke their record of goals scored. CL contenders are pretty much building a league of their own within the overall league itself.

Napoli lost points at home to Sassuolo (12th). They failed to beat Palermo home or away, a team that got relegated. They also lost twice to Atalanta who ended up 4th. Napoli also lost points to Genoa (16th) and Pescara (20th)
Roma lost points to Cagliari (11th) and is more suited to this example, they had a great season.
Juventus also lost to Genoa (16th) away and lost points to Udinese (13th).

I do agree there's an issue with the level of the smaller teams, but it's not as great as people are trying to make it out. It's pretty similar in England and Spain.
 

ElDiego22

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I think Sampdoria are the outside bets for top 4. They certainly won't make it but it'd be nice if Giampaolo channel his Interista and take points off Juve, Napoli, Roma, and Lazio. They have the players to pull off some shock wins like they did against Bbilan
 

ScottishInterista

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Ah, the official jinx thread for the season. We wont win until the new year now
 

kameru

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Jinx only works for unbeliever :notbad:
 

Sassuolu

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When we open these threads after a good spell we always end up shitting the bed and self-destructing.
 

darsez

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Pravesh

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Unless we make some good moves in the Winter Transfer Mercato, I doubt we will be able to hang on at the top of the table for that long. Anything is possible though.

That aside, Lazio has been super solid whenever I have watched them - including the game against Juventus (quality/creative players they have got).
 

ChillBro

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I agree with bluenine's point but make no mistake about it - Lazio is the threat here. Napoli and Juve may drop points here and there and out matches with them will be competitive - but they'll likely finish 1 and 2 this year. Roma have a game in hand and will also likely be in the top 4. The only team that is so far overperforming and trying to disrupt the top 4 going to us, juve, Napoli and roma is Lazio. And they are smashing teams. If we get 6 points from Lazio, I think we'll end up atleast 4th. Yes, we'll drop some points but everyone else will too. Lazio we must be +6 against or we are in trouble.
 

Tombatu

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With all respect to Blue9, But If we lose against Torino can we close this thread please?
 

ADRossi

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With all respect to Blue9, But If we lose against Torino can we close this thread please?

He's getting banned if we lose 2 of the next 3 fixtures
 

Bluenine

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Jokes apart, this is more of an anti-jinx thread. We are bound to drop some points sooner or later, our record against the top 10 sides just cannot be sustained. Torino are hungry to bounce back after dropping some points when they were missing their star striker who is back now, and Atalanta are a brilliant side who can trouble anyone on their day. Luckily for Inter, we have hopefully built some buffer points here.

This is how the table looks now, after adding in Torino who are showing signs that they belong on this list:

inter_15.jpg


It will be interesting to see how this table evolves during the season. Maybe this will throw up some interesting points about the race for top 4.

Over this match day and next, this table may change significantly. We have 6 head to heads:

Week 12:
Inter vs Torino
Fiorentina vs Roma

Week 13:
Inter vs Atalanta
Napoli vs Milan
Roma vs Lazio
Sampdoria vs Juventus

If we can get 4 to 6 points in the next 2 games, it would be awesome.
 
Last edited:

Ed.

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Napoli and Juve to lose.
Roma - Lazio draw.
that will be perfect scenario for us if we win vs atalanta.
 

Harpsabu

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Jinx thread
 
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