Yea that game could be the decider.
Atletico win (5%) - Atletico favourites for the title
Barca win (75%) - Barca favourites for the title
Draw (20%) - Real favourites for the title
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Of course, going by how things are, Atletico would be out of the title race by the time we get to that match.
As twisted as it is, I'm not really sure a draw is in Real's best interests.
I'm writing this as Barcelona leads 1-0 at the half vs. Granada - if I'd seen it and written it previously, it still would've been in the assumption Barça wins that game - but that puts the table at FCB 74/ATM 73/RM 71. Brushing aside this weekend for just one minute, if that game next weekend ends in a draw and Real wins their game (against Sevilla, as it turns out, so also a very difficult game), that leaves Barcelona at 75 points, and Real at 74. Barcelona's other remaining games?
@ Valencia (14th)
@ Levante (12th)
Celta Vigo (10th)
@ Eibar (20th)
Now, away to Valencia has generally been a tricky game for them over the years, but this would be an empty Mestalla and the worst Valencia team in years (which itself is saying something). Maybe you could talk yourself into Levante? But we're also talking about Barcelona with no Champions League distractions, so this is their best XI each week with proper rest, and is 16-1-1 in their last 18 league games going into their next game after today. Obviously anything can happen, but I'm not seeing dropped points from those games. They don't have the tiebreaker over Real Madrid, but obviously that doesn't matter if they have one more point.
In addition to winning their games, which is no given based on their injury woes and fixture congestion (that team is absolutely exhausted), Real has no realistic chance unless Barcelona actually loses that game. I realize that means Real still trails Atleti by two points in the table, but given Atleti's spottier form, I would still say maybe there's more of a chance they drop points when they play Sociedad or maybe even Osasuna. But if Barcelona is in 1st place after they finish the Atleti game, I don't see any way, for either of the Madrid clubs, that they'll have the opportunity to overtake them again. That schedule is just way too manageable. You basically need a miracle.
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EDIT (after full time): LOL