Stocks

[Javier'sSon]

Hmm looking at its chart it doesn't look that appealing to me, then again obviously I have no idea what I'm doing yet.

I need to work on knowing what implications (financial or otherwise) that could affect a stock, which probably differs from industry to industry. What the market players are doing, when betting against/for a stock.

Like the Irish cunt on here I rely mostly on reddit and so far I'm getting killed

 

[Adriano@10]

I have made a big bet on Shell (options expiring September) and shares. Everything is pointing out to a great re-opening, combined with 1 year blackhole in their budgets from OPEC countries, oil prices may sky rocket.

So we re in the same boat bought shell 1 year ago.....
Starting to think that US oil majors might have made for a better investment....
I stil think will reach that 80/90 usd and 100$ is possible.
That delta variant might ruin your september puts though, looks like markets first want to see what happens with the delta variant befor oil takes the next leap higher

 

[Adriano@10]

Man that circle spac deal is wild, and probably another no brainer short after COIN.
Claiming their USDC is fully reserved and audited when the last audit was in december and since then USDC in criculation have gone from bio to 22 bio......
On other thing that got me laughing is that they claim their long term TAM equals M2..... wtf and that is world wide M2 as in some odd 130 trillions (Probably a lot more today as these are 2019 numbers).
HEre s the edgar fillings in case anybody s bored: https://www.sec.gov/edgar/browse/?CIK=1824301&owner=exclude

 

[Pimpin]

So we re in the same boat bought shell 1 year ago.....
Starting to think that US oil majors might have made for a better investment....
I stil think will reach that 80/90 usd and 100$ is possible.
That delta variant might ruin your september puts though, looks like markets first want to see what happens with the delta variant befor oil takes the next leap higher

All data points to a rather low death rate post-vaccination, so I am not too worried about the variant, same as I wasn't worried about the British variant. It seems the markets are pricing oil as if it will disappear in 5 years time, no other explanation. As of right now, per ft, Shell has boosted operating cash flow by 20bn. There is no way they do not increase div.

On the other side my Segro bet is paying off, almost 20% gain from when I went long on it :slick:. Akamai is decent, Fastly has halved, feels good being right man.

Cloudflare is the next one that will implode.

 

[Shaun]

Implode? Like in bad way or did you mean explode?

 

[.h.]

the demographic of people going to hospital now in the UK is very different vs first Covid. It's young people, and I Sw something suggesting 60% of people in hospitals now are double vaccinated. As the UK is just lifting restrictions, you're 2+ weeks away from seeing what that impact has on cases - hospital capacity is decreasing, and the vaccince isnt as effective.

I think this could be a pretty bad wave - it wont be as bad (IMHO) by even 10% as the originaal ones, but I dont think the appetite will be there for any more lockdowns unless it gets REALLY bad. I think everyone in the UK is expecting this to be a bad next 6 months - esp with winter around the corner.. you gotta remember we're like 70% vaccinated (one dose) now and its still spreading as bad as the original ones were.

 

[Pimpin]

the demographic of people going to hospital now in the UK is very different vs first Covid. It's young people, and I Sw something suggesting 60% of people in hospitals now are double vaccinated. As the UK is just lifting restrictions, you're 2+ weeks away from seeing what that impact has on cases - hospital capacity is decreasing, and the vaccince isnt as effective.

I think this could be a pretty bad wave - it wont be as bad (IMHO) by even 10% as the originaal ones, but I dont think the appetite will be there for any more lockdowns unless it gets REALLY bad. I think everyone in the UK is expecting this to be a bad next 6 months - esp with winter around the corner.. you gotta remember we're like 70% vaccinated (one dose) now and its still spreading as bad as the original ones were.

none of this is true. The 60% claim was corrected, its 40% vaccinated that got hospitalised. The 40% vaccinated that got hospitalised was the absolute most vulnerable. While the vaccine reduces the risk for hospitalisation by 90%, it still does not make it 0.
Even if double vaccinated people were the majority hospitalised, its simple maths how it works.

Hypothetically over 80, have a 20% chance of hospitalisation, and under 30 have a chance of hospitalisation of 1%. With vacciness this falls by 90%. Therefore over 80's have 2% and under 30 (unvaxed) have it 1%.

If they are same sample, say 1000 over 80, and 1000 under 30. The hospitalisation will be 20 double vaccinated over 80's and 10 under 30. Cue the "breaking news" 66% of hospitalised people have been double vaccinated.

You can look at the data, while it will still go up, with 50k cases deaths are no where near how they weere, even accounting for 2 weeks lag.

 

[Pimpin]

Implode? Like in bad way or did you mean explode?

in a very bad way. its trading at almost 100 times sales.

In other news i feel like a moron for selling chipotle 1000 dollars ago

 

[brehme1989]

If you weren't worried about Tether and Bitcoin shit before, here's their own attempt to make you worry:

Edit, no clue why YouTube links aren't working and I cannot just paste the link... Quote the post to check the YouTube address.

 

[.h.]

based on a 2 week lag, we're still going to be at ~150 deaths a day in 2 weeks time, and hospital capacity is starting to take a hit https://www.google.com/search?q=uk+...i433j69i60l3.827j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

On a % basis, there are more people in intensive care out of all people in hospital than at the peak of the last wave. Just crudely it looks like hospitalization rate is about 20% of what it was in the last wave.

And now things are opening up, I think you'll see a big spike in 2-3 weeks time of new infections.


I think everyone in the UK is fully expecting us to go back into lockdown soon. That being said, I thought we would in May and that didnt happen

 

[Black Knight]

I think everyone in the UK is fully expecting us to go back into lockdown soon. That being said, I thought we would in May and that didnt happen

I've been working under that assumption for a few months now. I use the phrase "the next lockdown" multiple times a week in normal conversation.

 

[pupivn]

based on a 2 week lag, we're still going to be at ~150 deaths a day in 2 weeks time, and hospital capacity is starting to take a hit https://www.google.com/search?q=uk+...i433j69i60l3.827j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

On a % basis, there are more people in intensive care out of all people in hospital than at the peak of the last wave. Just crudely it looks like hospitalization rate is about 20% of what it was in the last wave.

And now things are opening up, I think you'll see a big spike in 2-3 weeks time of new infections.


I think everyone in the UK is fully expecting us to go back into lockdown soon. That being said, I thought we would in May and that didnt happen

don't think it would be 150 deaths per day in next 2 weeks, could be in 1 month




hospitals can still handle at this rate.

That's being said, UK Gov seems to opt in herd immunity they planed in beginning with 3rd dose boost in winter. Personally, I don't think there would be another lockdown. Even there is, their lockdown version is soft comparing to other countries.

 

[.h.]

I think you're underestimating how much people are taking it much easier now. With things like the tube, for example, no mandatory masks... 2 weeks time its gonna hit hard I think. And that's with this weather now - if things get cooler we're in real danger zone.

 

[pupivn]

I think you're underestimating how much people are taking it much easier now. With things like the tube, for example, no mandatory masks... 2 weeks time its gonna hit hard I think. And that's with this weather now - if things get cooler we're in real danger zone.

maybe I do underestimate but given the data at current rate, still keep being optimistic.
btw more unvaccinated people in hospital than double vaccinated people

https://twitter.com/x/status/1417204235356213252

 

[.h.]

Well, yeah, of course more people are unvaccinated in hospital than vaccinated. You have to remember <70% of the UK population is double vaccinated. So the fact that there's still 40% of people in hospital who are double vaccinated is in some ways worrying.

Everything seems to suggest the delta variant is less impacted by existing vaccines. Not ineffective, clearly, but less effective. I suspect internationally there is a gentlemans agreement to not really write aboutt it as people are struggling to convince anti-vaxxers etc to take the vaccine as it is.


Remember, 78% of people in the UK have had one vaccine now. These are not the numbers of the small % of people who the vaccine doesnt impact, but a systematic reduction in the efficacy of the vaccine.

If I had the energy, I'd build a statistical model to prove it

 

[brehme1989]

Can't you guys use the covid thread for this?

 

[Adriano@10]

Akamai with problems today leading to sites of delta fedex mcd and co beeing down.
Problem is fixed and according to akamai was no hack and everything should be running smooth again. Stock slightly down..

 

[Pimpin]

Well, yeah, of course more people are unvaccinated in hospital than vaccinated. You have to remember <70% of the UK population is double vaccinated. So the fact that there's still 40% of people in hospital who are double vaccinated is in some ways worrying.

Everything seems to suggest the delta variant is less impacted by existing vaccines. Not ineffective, clearly, but less effective. I suspect internationally there is a gentlemans agreement to not really write aboutt it as people are struggling to convince anti-vaxxers etc to take the vaccine as it is.


Remember, 78% of people in the UK have had one vaccine now. These are not the numbers of the small % of people who the vaccine doesnt impact, but a systematic reduction in the efficacy of the vaccine.

If I had the energy, I'd build a statistical model to prove it

no need for fancy models,

 

[Candreva Crosses]

So basically the vaccination succeding is bullshit if you look at that graph? Since it was the same shit 1 year ago without vaccinations?

 

[.h.]

Well, the vaccine doesnt make you immune to Covid, and it doesnt stop you from catching it. It just massively reduces the severity of your symptons

So in itself, the number of cases increasing doesnt scare me that much - although the level at which they are at isn't great.

The problem is the risk of mutation, and the efficacy of the vaccine.

We know <70% of the UK population is double vaccinated right now. 60% of people in hospital are unvaccinated, 40% are double vaccinated. The efficacy of the vaccines are typically reported around the ~90% level, so let's just use that for now. I dont have a true population/vaccine weighted figure, not sure if one is available.


So, let's start some maths:

If the efficacy of the vaccine is E, and we assume the probability of going to hospital without the vaccine is the same as with the vaccine (2x dose) but not impacted by the vaccine (e.g. it doesnt take) is (1-E) * P_H, then based on 30% unvaccinated, 70% vaccinated, you'd expect:

0.7*(1-E)*P_H + 0.3*P_H = population of people in the hospital

What we know from reality is that 0.3*P_H is roughly 1.5* 0.7*E*P_H (60% of people are unvaccinated in hospitals, 60/40=1.5)

Therefore:

(0.3*P_H)/(0.7*(1-E)*P_H) = 1.5

P_H obviously cancels out nicely (by design) here

0.3/(0.7*(1-E)) = 1.5

(1-E) = 0.3/(0.7*1.5)

Efficacy therefore is about 71.5%. That's way below the 'advertised' rates, and I think that number only gets *worse* if you account for the people who should have had some impact from the first dose.

Obviously this is really naive and simplistic - but its a useful starting point.


The other concern, then, is that if you let it spread without check, it will continue to mutate, and there's a risk it will mutate into something deadlier, or not impacted by the vaccine. I think we already see signs that (as demonstrated above) the vaccines arent as efficient as people think they are for the Delta variant.


The hospitalisation rate is the key thing - its all about whether the hospitals get overwhelmed or not. But the virus is spreading like wildfire, and we're lifting all restrictions. That's the concerning thing for me right now.

We'll see over the next 2-3 weeks where things end up, but bear in mind (for example) you wont have to isolate anymore in the UK if you're double vaccinated I think in 3 weeks time? If theres only a 70% impact of that, then suddenly holy shit its going to spread rapidly among the vaccinated.


The big question will be where the UK's new cases are in 2-3 weeks time, imho.