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brakbrak

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LOL now the apes think a BYND short squeez is about to happen.. Can this fucken thing finally collapse getting sck and tired of the everyday crayze ness...

On the short side i added lots of Carvana leaps still a lot of downside left, general market sentiment on them has turned and i cant see to many pumps left that mgm can use...

Also did not realize that chewy got murdred these last couple months, maybe the GME bulls realize that their hero Ryan Cohen wont just turn this thing into cash machine. the again that fucken crypto/ nft pump yesterday worked like a fucken charm.
Also if chewy gets in the low 30s i m getting interested, think there is quite a big market for pet stuff and this is one of the niche segments where competing with amazone might be worth it.
Funny thing is when shit drops like crazy they call it manipulation lmao
 

Pimpin

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I ll apologise in advance for the avalanche of posts or the extremely long post that is coming but you guys brought up a lot of good discussion topics and the idiot that I am i actually worked more the last couple of days so that i can enjoy inter today now i m just gonna waste those two houres posting on here..
Gonna start with Harpsabu....
First of i m pretty sure your off by like 4 years not sure if you checked the wrong index but the S&P 500 recovered within 6 years from 2007. Then you also have to consider that those 6 years to recover and that 50% retraction really only matter if you buy the Peak if you buy earlier or later the recovery period will be shorter and the max loss lower.
Second problem here is that unless you invest in a completely anti cyclical ETF it really wont mater much as if the sp 500 drops 50% there wont be many places to hide out. As in even if the fin crisis in 2007 clearly had it s roots in the US it pulled down worldwide markets with it. One might argue that it fucked up the EU Markets even more than it did the US.....
So really hiding from a crash while staying invested is extremely hard, for example lets say you buy something completely anti cyclical that has a negative correlation to the sp 500 the problem is your gonna lose money till the crash happens, and again timing the market is a bitch.
another thing that Harpsabu may be missing with years to recover is the dividend, usually that does not show on a chart, and in some markets its the main return (ftse 100), which leads me to the second part of the story, a good "hiding spot" are consumer staples etf's. While they may lower your downturn risk, they are really low growth, and long term underperform every fucking asset. So during recessions they keep their dividend or even increase (so called dividend kings), some even may benefit from recessions. Also anecdotal, but companies like Walmart do well even in recessions (that's why I have them and keep them after every bad earnings report).

Say you buy a consumer staples stock for $100 with a $5 dividend giving it a 5% yield, so if you hold that stock even if it declines 50%, you'll still get 5% yield on it, and if you reinvest the dividend the yield will be 10%. As adriano said though, diversification is best.


I like this one best for me, and you can have it as isa. It is very nicely diversified, it has room for growth, basic materials, financials, defensive. Ftse 100 is basically fucking fossil etf, all old shit.
 

Pimpin

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My cash position is murdered (thanks @Pimpin ) so I could not make new moves during the massacre I suffered in the last two months and at reduce my average price.

But as usual, I have a list of candidates, that excludes companies I missed out on since I went with fucking StoneCo instead :lol:
Companies like Nucor and Cisco that I had in mind.

Honestly, I was expecting a correction of some sort, but PayPal fucked me the hardest, I'm just kidding about Stone but it's a significant hit but I did commit a significant amount of cash to average down, which was never the plan. Only thing I could do is add to my AT&T positions between $22-23 which at the moment is actually my largest holding, but could not get as much as I'd like. Still not confident about that position but the dividend is sexy.

Ideally I want to offload some of the speculative names I have, but I want a good price for them despite being up already. Names like Plug Power, Lucid Group, 3D Systems, Stratasys, Rambus, then SoFi if it goes up, Matterport, Teladoc, StoneCo, RobinHood that keeps giving me nightmares and sell my reopening stocks (casino stocks like Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts, Norwegian Cruise Line etc) as well as Boston Beer (aka Sam) that I'm finally close to breaking even. The only one I will end up keeping is AirBnB, I think it's going to explode eventually and reach $300 in the mid-term.
Other main holdings include Disney, PayPal, Cleveland Fields, Twitter, Volkswagen, Chevron, Apple, Exxon Mobil, Boeing, Raytheon, Schlumberger and Halliburton won't be adding to them. Maybe I should add to Twitter though.


So pending some sales, these are in my mind:
Crowdstrike ($CRWD)
Chipotle ($CMG)
Confluent ($CFLT)
Activision Blizzard ($ATVI)
Blackrock ($BLK)
Visa ($V)
Upstart Holdings ($UPST)
Digital Ocean ($DOCN)
Trade Desk ($TTD)
United Microelectronics ($UMC)
Stem Inc ($STEM)
QuantumSpace ($QS)
Palantir ($PLTR)
Ford ($F)

Would appreciate if someone has any red flags for the companies I listed.


So at the moment my issue is no liquidity and any attempt to sale an existing position will end up in regrets. Don't want to sell my winners because that's gonna mean I'll have to stick with the losers. Don't care if open positions % of portfolio is up or down, but it's a psychological thing.

The other issue is that if they all start to go up again, I'll probably miss my entry windows for the shortlist.
I hold over 80 names at the moment and I'll stop when that becomes a round 100, but the weighting is still quite off. The idea is to cap the main holdings to ~4%, which is quite far off from the top holdings.
man, if you had listened to me when I mentioned chipotle at $328 you'd have a 5 bagger and could afford to lose money on stoneco.

From the names you listed, trivial, but a friend who works for some bullshit tech company in UK is very bearish crowdstrike (said tech company was a 10 bagger, and got added to ftse250). The other name $QS I have not read one good thing about their CEO, huge red flag for me. I too am looking to get into the video games, just a bit different, I am looking at take two. They have the best franchises, fucking mcdonalds of video games.

For the past few weeks, i have levered my dick off on puts (Rivian and Cloudflare best so far) and for each dollar they drop i make very good rate of return :lol:. Shell and rest of energy gang are giving me fucking headaches, my calls got close to printing - with omicron I think they'll fly. Everything so far points to this being it regarding the pandemic. So very bullish re-opening stocks that have not issued gazillion new shares ($RCL). I think you can add lockheed to your watchlist and leidos. I do not know why defense stocks are trading at such cheap multiples, considering half east africa is at war, central asia is riling up, eastern europe will have fireworks.

I will average down / add some more payment processing firms. Paypal, stoneco, sea and visa (i love this one most).
 

Pimpin

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Some thoughts for 2022 – bearish edition



Doom - War and Stagflation

I think markets are severely underpricing the risk of a full-blown conflict in China/Taiwan and Ukraine/Russia. Let’s not forget the significance that each of these has in markets. In a way we got a taste of how life is without the two most important exports out of these regions – chips and gas. Taiwan is one of the most important countries that powered almost everything electrical. If you think this year’s chip shortage was bad, imagine 20% of world’s supply being disrupted.



I think this year the green gang got a taste of what life is without proper planning without nuclear/LNG.

European-Gas-Prices.png


Eventually we will be 100% green, but it’s almost certain not in our lifetime without nuclear and/or LNG. Look at this graph below. It may not be impossible, but it is not as realistic as people make it out to be.

COP-21-Paris-Climate-Conference-Summit.png


While these two on their own would be a disaster, it is worse because it is eerily similar to what unfolded during the stagflation years – high inflation with energy crises that fucked the US economy. Even more frightening is that people have started calling for price controls, right when our biggest problem is supplying stuff, commies want to remove the production incentive.


Metrics matter

Anyone that reads history, knows that in every generation there are charlatans who claim that “this time it’s different”. It is not, it never is. If one reads Money for Nothing – the South Sea bubble, you will read how much of it relates to today. There are many interesting stories, one how during the peak, even during church the people were talking to each other and saying, “how goes the stock” and that became a very common saying as everyone had put money in them. Not saying that it is the same this time around but look at this:

Household Ownership of Stocks

2021: $44T 2011: $11T 2010: $9T 2009: $7T 2008: $10T 2007: $17T 2006: $14T 2005: $8T 2004: $7T 2003: $6T 2002: $7T 2001: $8T 2000: $13T *Goldman data, household + mutual fund ownership of equities. via @BearTrapsReport

And when there is so much liquidity, a lot of bullshit gets propped up. Some of this is 100% because the fed has killed every other form of income giving people very limited choice of where to park their savings. If people think that this correction. wait till you see what follows.

FIl5smQX0AYbApY


and it may get worse if people start running for the door, when the exit door gets smaller things can get UGLAY

FIhzEuWXEAEFokj


Speaking of things for which metrics no longer matter, you have the crypto mania that trades on nothing but with people who read a book or two on “trading signals” who look more like astrology, tarot witches than anyone doing serious investing. The whole thing is on leverage, 4-5% move in them and they start liquidating accounts. This was on a 30% correction, million of people got liquidated. Just wait when interest rates start going up and bitcoin moves sideways for a prolonged amount of time.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/over-800-000-crypto-traders-180000565.html

Another bubble to look for against which I have puts are the e vehicle bonanza. The thing about innovative bubbles is that the short-term impact is overstated, and long-term impact understated. You have a company like Rivian that has a $70bn market cap and the thing has 0 revenue, I mean how can I not short it. Do not get me started on delivery services (I hate doordash and uber, can’t wait to see how they cope when people stop funding these fucking money burning disaster).

Around the dry wood, even the wet ones burn

Correction is happening, no one knows when it’ll stop, but that does not mean there are not good companies to be found. After all Microsoft, Amazon, Cisco and a myriad of other companies declined by more than 70% during the dotcom bubble, but still survived and outperformed the wider market. Some of these stocks that have declined are truly disruptive, they were just retardly priced. Some are still very expensive (cloudflare) and some are just so bad they will go almost certainly lower as they are dog shit, overhyped companies that are not innovative at all (lemonade).

Emerging markets are cheap for a reason

While metrics are important, there is a reason why people are more lenient with advanced markets ie why they trade at higher multiples. Advanced countries are stable, emerging markets are not. While this time around emerging markets have started hiking rates before the FED, they are still emerging market. While it seems markets have started pricing in the fed rate, I doubt they are done buying USD. EM currencies against USD are heading for March 2020 levels, when they fled EM for security.

FIHEaZYXsAUtg14


2021 was worse for EM then 2020.



This is not to say that EM do something bad, it’s just unsafe, and you have a lot of things bundled up. How the fuck are Turkish Lira (commodity importer) and Brazil real (commodity exporter) correlated or those two correlated with the South African rand. ANSW: they are in same fucking "baskets". You buy an emerging market ETF, you buy turkish, south african and brazilian companies, with a myriad of other countries.

The biggest problem for EM will be China. I think China will get stuck on a middle-income trap eventually, but short-term it has worse problems. Omicron it seems won’t be contained and China is stuck on zero case policy. If it continues to quarantine people and shut off ports, prices will continue to go up. It is a very real possible contributor to stagflation that I think gets discounted. For me this will leave south-east asia as the one region which will carry growth as China did in 2008. Especially since China has itself 2008'd itself.

Conclusion

While I’ve been a doomsayer for a while now, and I’ve learned that the most bearish things that I listed are not likely to happen, I do still think that the likelihood of a blackswan event happening is a bit higher than average and it would be prudent to have some investments in Gold, if you think I am the only one, check Palantir.

If the economy continues to grow like it has so far, if there are no new tariffs/trade restrictions (quarantined staff/China, MAGA lunatics bringing jobs home, EU closing supply chains), if war does not occur(very likely) the economy can take interest rate hikes, and we will learn to invest in new environment. Long term, tech is deflationary and emerging markets will provide great opportunities for growth (or only great opportunity for growth), and e vehicles will be a reality, just do your DD as I do not think it will be a good year for them.



In nutshell:

Long: South-East Asia, payment processing, food restaurants and energy

Short: High Sales multiples tech, non-existent revenue e vehicles and emerging market currencies.
 

brehme1989

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I had shares of EA, I was considering Blizzard only because of their huge drop, I think they'll bounce back.

I'll consider Take Two as well, it's still early for me to make a decision and I will probably end up overpaying but at least it'll mean that I exited the other positions on a profit.


I'm also anticipating a big crash at some point but I just cannot time it and I am in no position to anymore since I was rushed to invest my main portfolio into (rather speculative) stocks at a time where I didn't deem it prudent. Still +ve on the whole but if this happens soon I'm screwed.
 
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Pimpin

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re-reading this fucking shell update again and again, something tells me they got caught on the wrong side of a gamma squeeze in trading
 
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take two buying zynga, I do not know what to think of this. Long term I was thinking that take two would probably be beneficiary of metaverse as its the developer with the best open world games, but now they go and buy a mobile game company..
 
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brehme1989

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take two buying zynga, I do not know what to think of this. Long term I was thinking that take two would probably be beneficiary of metaverse as its the developer with the best open world games, but now they go and buy a mobile game company..

I was just about to comment on this.


First of all,
I too am looking to get into the video games, just a bit different, I am looking at take two.

1641822052096.png

Can you please tell me 45 numbers for the lottery?
Check Zynga out.

Zynga's price at that time was $8.70something I think, but I've been buying the dips and the premarket price now exceeds the top amount I paid per share.

Safe to say this has given me a 20% gain thus far and I'll be exiting. Not sure where I put this, though. Might gamble with Matterport's dip since it's not a large enough amount for a new holding.
 
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Pimpin

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I was just about to comment on this.


First of all,


View attachment 6284

Can you please tell me 45 numbers for the lottery?


Zynga's price at that time was $8.70something I think, but I've been buying the dips and the premarket price now exceeds the top amount I paid per share.

Safe to say this has given me a 20% gain thus far and I'll be exiting. Not sure where I put this, though. Might gamble with Matterport's dip since it's not a large enough amount for a new holding.
just inverse the stuff im bullish and follow me on puts :lol:

No idea what the idea is with Zynga, diversify in mobile? Add zynga poker on GTA 5 and make it into a multiverse bullshit? I mean i always thought that if the metaverse is to happen, you'll need developers in it to make it into a "world"
 

Adriano@10

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As a long term TTWO bul and sh this is in line with their push into mobile....
They have been trying to get there for some time now go listen to the old transcripts...
That being said still a bit surprised that they went for zyga and the price they paid.....

I m stil long TTWO cause of all the big game punlishers/developpers their still the least scummy even though they are getting there and I highly expect a new GTA within the next two years which is gonna be a Cash cow again....

Also Brehme on the names you mentioned what pimpin said on QS and their CEO...
Other than that no red flags apart from valuation but i trust that you can do that on your own.
Also i thought i read a convincing short report on Stem in the last couple of months, but when i went trough my notes i could not find it again so might be confusing things here....

I ll do a outlook write up somwhern later in this year gott a couple of names on the radar but still not in a rush as i still believe correction is around the corner and i just cannot help but be more comnvinced by shorts rather than longs ATM.
The one that i m most sure of is carvana overvalued shit co that already has the eyes of the SEC on them. Not the most overvalued shitco out there but imho the one that is closest to collapsing.

In other news Adam Aron must be voted into the hall of fame of pumpers: After the popcorn/BTC/NFT pump he s now arrived at the fake meat pump as they ll serve impossible nuggets in AMC theatres
 
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brehme1989

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What's up with Teladoc? Is it just Cathie Wood treatment?
 
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commentators are fucking comical, big tech trading at high at multiples, you have fucking facebook trading at lower p/e than $KO, or $RSG and I own the latter.

Get the fuck out of here
 

Adriano@10

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“Sometimes the market can remain irrational and I’ll say what’s going on right now is irrational" Cathy fucken Wood in a video posted to Arks website....

I m still laughing....

So she made a shit tonn investing in shit cos and bubly stocks and when they come back down to reality it s markets are irrational.
I cannot believe she is that stupid, probably just trying to stop the bleeding....

Also the sheer arrogance of here saying this it s just fucken incredible....

Also if somebody wants to go down the rabit hole that is right wing extremism & Crypto here you go:
https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch...ncy-revolutionized-white-supremacist-movement

As always as if i needed more reasons to hate on crypto
 

Harpsabu

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“Sometimes the market can remain irrational and I’ll say what’s going on right now is irrational" Cathy fucken Wood in a video posted to Arks website....

I m still laughing....

So she made a shit tonn investing in shit cos and bubly stocks and when they come back down to reality it s markets are irrational.
I cannot believe she is that stupid, probably just trying to stop the bleeding....

Also the sheer arrogance of here saying this it s just fucken incredible....

Also if somebody wants to go down the rabit hole that is right wing extremism & Crypto here you go:
https://www.splcenter.org/hatewatch...ncy-revolutionized-white-supremacist-movement

As always as if i needed more reasons to hate on crypto
Seen this on WSB subreddit today, you'll love the dd here lol

If GME goes to $1000…. What are your guys thoughts on this realistically. - https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/s13de7
 

Adriano@10

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Not sure if any of you followed me into the oco trade but we have confirmation of high grade copper outside of the historical drill zone....


getting excited also time for the market to realize whats happening.
 
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Pimpin

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who were the idiots the past few days that bought these high sales multiple stocks? lmao, got slaughtered.

the sell off is spreading to e vehicles :slick: for how long can this bullshit last?
 

brehme1989

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Zynga situation is not very favorable at the moment, limited upside and unlimited downside. I might cave and sell it.
 
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brehme1989

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Care to elaborate?
Zynga price is pretty much capped at 9.86. Last I checked, 1/3 of that would be in cash, 2/3 will be converted to T2 stock at 150something, didn't even want to bother with it as I don't want to own that stock at the moment, call it the Pimpin factor :D :D :D

Since Zynga's price won't really jump any further, there's no point to wait for the deal to be concluded, as we all know it may collapse. Meaning the price cannot really go to the maximum possible, there's the Take Two stock risk since it's dropping, and there's really no real upside unless T2 takes off. Which won't happen any time soon. Zynga's stock on the other hand is at the low 9s, the best it can do is go to 9.86, but we all know that even 9.50 sounds too high at this point. If the deal collapses, Zynga is back to $5-7 territory. Within an instance.

Don't think it's worth the risk to wait for the deal to take place.
 
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