Stocks

[Adriano@10]

He better... I'm still waiting for Stone to recover

The only one that I lucked with was Affirm. Sold the last of it near the top, then bought again at the final dip (27ish) and sold in the mid 40s.
Doesn't cover the Paypal, Square and StoneCo losses though but at least it's something.
Should have sold SoFi as well... Fucking Chamath ruined that one.

LOL told you guys that Chamath was full of shit and that sofi sounded like a shitco...
Also yes stone backfired badly glad i got out of half my position in the high 80s... Still sitting on the rest though...

As a shareholder, I'm team Musk.

I understand that but you should have sold the day he announced his offer. Reading the offer it became clear that he does not really intend to buy and now with the poison Pill he for sure aint going through with it, plus it will probably turn off any other possible buyer.

Really dont get why longterm twitter holders did not go lol thanks and sold their shares on the offer spike.

 

[brehme1989]

It was a very small profit for me and not worth it. In general I believe Twitter has the best chances of going parabolic in the near(?) future. They just need a new management that knows how to monetize without jeopardizing the product. And one that doesn't permaban people according to their tweets/beliefs.

Ever since they banned Trump they've hit the toilet.

 

[Adriano@10]

It was a very small profit for me and not worth it. In general I believe Twitter has the best chances of going parabolic in the near(?) future. They just need a new management that knows how to monetize without jeopardizing the product. And one that doesn't permaban people according to their tweets/beliefs.

Ever since they banned Trump they've hit the toilet.

That has been the long thesis for a very long time.....
Yes twiter mgm has been bad at monetizing but i do believe that it s also rather hard cause of the nature of twiter when compared to other social media platforms.
I also do believe that the fake news problem and the problem of banning people will never be solved as one side of the issue will always scream and shout.....
There will always be the trumps of this world who will try and influence people with absolute BS and propaganda where not banning them is also not the solution.
For example i find it quite irresponsible that the russian Gov and it s associates are still allowed to spread their propaganda on TWTR, and i dont think you ll ever be able to solve that problem.
It s the same thing over at FB you dont censor your hated by the left you censor your hated by the right....

EDIT: This whole saga also shows once again how useless the TWTR MGM and it s BoD is, their getting trolled by musk in thsi whole saga like little kids. They know this takeover bid is BS and instead of thanking him and playing along hoping somebody else comes along they insert a fucken poisen pill which will scare off any takeover attempt in the next two years....
Like musk just admitted he does not have the Funding yet, at the very least let him scramble to try and get it.

 

[Pimpin]

https://s27.q4cdn.com/765243554/files/doc_financials/2021/q4/Q4-Earnings-Presentation_Final.pdf

Check slide number 7, i'd get fired on the spot if i did this.

I really am liking the numbers at coupang but that presentation has to be the worst ive ever seen

 

[Pimpin]

No worries bro also as said before i might be very wrong and if i remember correctly Pimpin is rather deep into these payment services so maybe he can give you better feedback on Paypal.

Only sector I am balls deep is energy , but yes I do have a position in stoneco/visa and I am eyeing paypal.

Stoneco is recovering pretty good, their last quarter was decent. Brazil's economy will start doing a lot better due to commodity price booming. Right now everything that had a good year in 2020 is getting murked.. but like not all "value" is equal, not all "tech stocks" are equal. I am too lazy (and too busy), but run a linear revenue growth on many of the pandemic stocks, you'll see that many of these had a 2-3 year growth within 1 year. I mean look at zoom, pinterest, teladoc, stoneco and a myriad of other tech stocks. I mean, I remember writing a lengthy post here about cloudflare/fastly, now that fastly imploded, just wait for cloudflare to have a single missed revenue quarter and the meltdown will be spectacular . Stoneco by the way has TTM USD 1bn in revenue and trades 3 times sales.. and though margins have contracted even at 15% net income, it would trade at 20 p/e. Now take out those one time write offs in q3, and this thing would trade at even better multiples.

Same mfs that paid 50 times sales are getting bearish on their "growth" prospects. Just give it a year or so and you'll see that growth will continue and the idiots will chase the top .

In other news no idea if i should start cashing in more of my energy bets


update1;

just saw avg analyst estimate 78% growth of revenue this year, so that implies USD 1.8bn revenue, current market cap is USD 2.9bn. At 10% margins that's like 16 p/e. Current forward p/e estimate is 24.. so analysts really pessimistic, that net margins will be 6.5%.

 

[Pimpin]

But pimp why are you bullish fintech?

 

[Pimpin]

Look away, nothing to see here.

 

[Pimpin]

netflix losing subscribers, in reality they added 0.5m but closed 0.7m russian accounts hence "losing" 0.2m

not talking like a baggie but yeah , and the thing is I saw the decline in Netflix coming like a year ago

 

[Pimpin]

Netflix with the earnings miss. I genuinely love their product, but looking at the competition and boy will they have it hard, especially at this valuation

Do you think they can compete for content with their competitors? I love Netflix, but increasingly the content has dipped in quality.

same brother, I absolutely love Netflix services. The interface is so crisp, the user experience is almost other worldly. Yet I just don't see how it can compete with others. IMO HBO GO had better video/sound, and the content that disney can generate is bigger. So yes, long term I just don't see how they would expand if we ever had higher interest rates in the future.

..

 

[Harpsabu]

Look away, nothing to see here.

Oh fuck. What the fuck.

I've seen people say " a crash is immenient, only thing that makes sense", but our issue is supply doesn't meet demand. How does a crash cure that? Looks like its about to get a lot worse

 

[Adriano@10]

https://s27.q4cdn.com/765243554/files/doc_financials/2021/q4/Q4-Earnings-Presentation_Final.pdf

Check slide number 7, i'd get fired on the spot if i did this.

I really am liking the numbers at coupang but that presentation has to be the worst ive ever seen

LOL almost as bad as the valley of coronavirus slide by Softbank.... also slide 6 is not much better......

Only sector I am balls deep is energy , but yes I do have a position in stoneco/visa and I am eyeing paypal.

Stoneco is recovering pretty good, their last quarter was decent. Brazil's economy will start doing a lot better due to commodity price booming. Right now everything that had a good year in 2020 is getting murked.. but like not all "value" is equal, not all "tech stocks" are equal. I am too lazy (and too busy), but run a linear revenue growth on many of the pandemic stocks, you'll see that many of these had a 2-3 year growth within 1 year. I mean look at zoom, pinterest, teladoc, stoneco and a myriad of other tech stocks. I mean, I remember writing a lengthy post here about cloudflare/fastly, now that fastly imploded, just wait for cloudflare to have a single missed revenue quarter and the meltdown will be spectacular . Stoneco by the way has TTM USD 1bn in revenue and trades 3 times sales.. and though margins have contracted even at 15% net income, it would trade at 20 p/e. Now take out those one time write offs in q3, and this thing would trade at even better multiples.

Same mfs that paid 50 times sales are getting bearish on their "growth" prospects. Just give it a year or so and you'll see that growth will continue and the idiots will chase the top .

In other news no idea if i should start cashing in more of my energy bets


update1;

just saw avg analyst estimate 78% growth of revenue this year, so that implies USD 1.8bn revenue, current market cap is USD 2.9bn. At 10% margins that's like 16 p/e. Current forward p/e estimate is 24.. so analysts really pessimistic, that net margins will be 6.5%.

Agreed for the most part... Just not sure about the end game and regulators when it comes to fin tech... Also think all three of Appl Goog and FB are underestimated when it comes to that market.... Especially Apple and Goog who basicaly already have a payment function on most phones in this planet.
Ofcourse when were talking SMBs those small payment terminals have been vital and they will keep on growing. my beef with that is that it looks like it will end up being a highly segmented market mostly by jurisdictions. Like i saw those terminals in SF all over the place back in 2014 yet the providers back then have baerly expanded beyond the US/NA and we re seeing companies like stoneco in most markets getting big chunks before the guys with a head start of 4 years get there. I can only suspect that the biggest reason for that is regulation....

Anyways as you know i only sold half my stoneco holdings in the high 80s which would suggest i m still bullish(or a baggie) on the sector. Just not sure which way it s gonna go and valuations are rich.

netflix losing subscribers, in reality they added 0.5m but closed 0.7m russian accounts hence "losing" 0.2m

not talking like a baggie but yeah , and the thing is I saw the decline in Netflix coming like a year ago

Yap people are making to big a fuss out of this...
Still a superb run companie that Imho will end up number 2 or 1 in the streaming game in the west...... Imho only disney has a real chance as they are the only one with enough pull outside the us to gain significant subs. and i still dont see most people subscribing to more than 2 of these services.
I still have no conviction either way though as to where NFLXs longerm margins are gonna be which makes valuation hard. empted to pick a few shares up at these prices but will wait for a bit to see the bigger picture.
Btw i also dont get the people who think this is bullish roku....

Oh fuck. What the fuck.

I've seen people say " a crash is immenient, only thing that makes sense", but our issue is supply doesn't meet demand. How does a crash cure that? Looks like its about to get a lot worse

The answer my friend is inflation or stagflation..
With Cbs raising rates and a transition to QT refinancing aint gonna be cheap or easy to do for many businesses and consumers.
The hit will come the only question is when.

You can already see a demand pull back in US housing and used car markets.
Also this stuff usually starts very slowly and then all of a sudden shit hits the fan....

In other news carvana and Tesla have ther earnings call today it s either gonna be an epic day for my short book or i ll go broke....

 

[Adriano@10]

LOL and i m fucked.........

On a more serious not when is anybody with power gonna ask the right questions about Teslas accounting... Another clown show that makes 0 sense..
How on earth do you have record margins with Inflation that we have not seen in years and every single one of your input materials is sitting close to all time highs? Questions remain around SG&A as well as OPEX....
Also somehow reg credits are up again? Who still buys and needs these and why on earth would they need more than in 2021 or 2020?
I guess will have to wait for the 10k to deliver som answers...
Shit is getting weirder and weirder with every Q that passes.
I totally forgot to mention that all this supposedly was achieved with all their factories running under capacity...
Either these guys reeinvented the wheel or they are the biggest bullshitters in the room...

Meanwhile CVNA obviously struggles for cash and makes another 1 bio preffered share offering... I wonder how long they ll find fools to finance this shit..
Also this earnings realease is quite something: https://investors.carvana.com/~/med...uments/cvna-earning-release-q1-2022-final.pdf

 

[brehme1989]

Why are you betting against a religion? You cannot win there.

 

[Adriano@10]

Why are you betting against a religion? You cannot win there

I kind of agree but markets have to wake up at some point... Like how long are we gonna accept highly questionable numbers without asking questions?
Also i ve learned along the way and my exposure is usually quite small...
Plus the reward is just to fucken big this pig will come down and when it finally does it will be ugly and people on the short side will make a ton of money....
In the end timing is everything also conviction that they ll come down back to earth at somepoint is just to fucken big.

And full disclosure it s not like i only short them i do occasionally go long Tesla cause well even i can learn, still oviously has been a losing trade for me when all is said and done

 

[brehme1989]

I'm not a fan of today

 

[Adriano@10]

I'm not a fan of today

today was brutal for me with the exception of carvana........
Thank good i had other things to do then watch the markets

 

[brehme1989]

forza Elon Musk

 

[Sawyer]

Changed there salaries to $0 and they sold hahaha. Brilliant

 

[Adriano@10]

Cant believe Elon pulled it off have not checked the exact Terms but wtf are small holders gonna do?
Another historic day for markets sadly this also means i no longer will be using Twtr cause simply put fuck elon.

Also man while carvana has been super frustrating on these one day rallies the Carvana short is the gift that keeps on giving down another 38% in the last 30 days...
Also it aint over cause that business is a 0.....

 

[brehme1989]

What's wrong with Elon Musk owning Twitter?