Stocks

[brehme1989]

Melvin Capital feels the shit

 

[Javier'sSon]

I think the best thing for me is to quit the international stock market and just focus on the Saudi one, the upside is tenfold unlike the shitfest that's going on.

 

[Adriano@10]

I think the best thing for me is to quit the international stock market and just focus on the Saudi one, the upside is tenfold unlike the shitfest that's going on.

To be fair that is mostly due to oil s outperformance and the huge stake oil companies have in the saudi market....
Also i would not say the upside is 10x yes oil can and imho will go higher but once the recession really sets in and ee get more clarity on russia/ukraine this will come back down again.


Also guys just look to the bond market in case you wanna know if your investimg im a shit co or not..multiple bonds trading at 15% plus yields while the equity trades at 4-7x rev...
Now either the bond or the stock holders are wrong by quite a lot. I fore one think bond markets reflect risks a lot better than equity markets atm...

Also i dont think the bleeding is over....

 

[Pimpin]

ok so walmart and target had a shit quarter, but which 2 companies can do better than walmart and target during a recession?

 

[Adriano@10]

ok so walmart and target had a shit quarter, but which 2 companies can do better than walmart and target during a recession?

DLTR? atleast if we hit a real recession they might do better , but are also way overpriced atm.
Also not sure i wanna hold wmt at 27 p/e with margin compression and a looming recession on the horizon

 

[Pimpin]

DLTR? atleast if we hit a real recession they might do better , but are also way overpriced atm.
Also not sure i wanna hold wmt at 27 p/e with margin compression and a looming recession on the horizon

Perhaps. I mean no one can convince me that Walmart and Amazon are not artificially compressing their margins.


btw target does not have margin compression..

Target Profit Margin 2010-2022 | TGT

Current and historical gross margin, operating margin and net profit margin for Target (TGT) over the last 10 years. Profit margin can be defined as the percentage of revenue that a company retains as income after the deduction of expenses. Target net profit margin as of April 30, 2022 is...

www.macrotrends.net

walmart has weird trend, but i think its largely that they try to get e commerce share from amazon..

Walmart Profit Margin 2010-2022 | WMT

Current and historical gross margin, operating margin and net profit margin for Walmart (WMT) over the last 10 years. Profit margin can be defined as the percentage of revenue that a company retains as income after the deduction of expenses. Walmart net profit margin as of April 30, 2022 is...

www.macrotrends.net

THey both did great in 2008..

 

[Adriano@10]

Perhaps. I mean no one can convince me that Walmart and Amazon are not artificially compressing their margins.


btw target does not have margin compression

Are you sure about thaf? Was yesterday not their 2nd profit warning in 2 months?
Also that warning came cause of a pile.up.of inventory...
Sounds a lot like margin compression to me

 

[Pimpin]

Are you sure about thaf? Was yesterday not their 2nd profit warning in 2 months?
Also that warning came cause of a pile.up.of inventory...
Sounds a lot like margin compression to me

Wasn't the pile up of inventory because of misreading what demand would be.. like a quarter or two issue rather than something long term, past 12 years their margins look vwry stable

 

[Adriano@10]

Wasn't the pile up of inventory because of misreading what demand would be.. like a quarter or two issue rather than something long term, past 12 years their margins look vwry stable

I mean is this not just a nicer way of saying demand is low? Like how often has this happened at Target that they had to issue not one but two profit warnings? Cant remember this being a "regular" thing.
Also with the profit warning already came a note saying OP margins are gonna be lower. I personally dont think this is a temporary thing. Unless the consumer comes back extremely strong but thats just not what the data suggests atm. Also i just dont see how target could not be affected by higher input prices and how they could pass all of that on to the consumer, i dont think any retailer will be able to pull that off but being in that middleclass segment is gonna make it harder than it will be for a walmart/ traderjoes.


In other news apple somehow thinks it s a smart idea to get into BNPL them selfes... Wholly owned subsidiary that will make the credit decisions yes i know the push into fin services has kind of been there but BNPL at this fucken moment in time? I know wont be material to apples BS even if it goes horribly wrong just seems an odd decision to make. Also weird to see em cap max credits at 1000$ and that they say they wont report to credit scoring companies if cred is defaulted on.

EDIT: US cpi 8.6% higher than estimates at 8.3% so much for inflation has peaked.........
Gonna be a ugly day

 

[Pimpin]

I mean is this not just a nicer way of saying demand is low? Like how often has this happened at Target that they had to issue not one but two profit warnings? Cant remember this being a "regular" thing.
Also with the profit warning already came a note saying OP margins are gonna be lower. I personally dont think this is a temporary thing. Unless the consumer comes back extremely strong but thats just not what the data suggests atm. Also i just dont see how target could not be affected by higher input prices and how they could pass all of that on to the consumer, i dont think any retailer will be able to pull that off but being in that middleclass segment is gonna make it harder than it will be for a walmart/ traderjoes.

Now I am completely burned out (working on weekend), but I think what they did was (and I have no idea where i read/listened to this) they stocked up on the wrong things.. I mean home depot is killing it as are many others that called it correctly..

On the other hand with apple, they are turning into a GE bloated retarded company. Streaming, cars, financing, just a clusterfuck.

On the other hand I saw headline numbers for stoneco, very positively surprised, I ll read the call tommorrow.

Stoneco LTD (STNE) Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript | The Motley Fool

STNE earnings call for the period ending March 31, 2022.

www.fool.com

 

[Pimpin]

I am tempted to short the dick off microstrategy, the meltdown is epic.

I want to hear from cryptobros

 

[brehme1989]

I am tempted to short the dick off microstrategy, the meltdown is epic.

I want to hear from cryptobros

I want to see the meltdown and then hear from cryptobros

 

[brakbrak]

I want to see the meltdown and then hear from cryptobros

Cryptobros in my circle are pretty quite in the past few months lol

 

[Pimpin]

watching cryptobros yolo into shitcoins, shit exchanges, is like watching retards board a plane that's missing a wing, warning them the plane would crash, and then watch the plane crash.

Like you can't even say i told you so because these fucks get wiped out.

 

[Pimpin]

do your own DD but Cloudflare still trades around 18 times sales

 

[Adriano@10]

Now I am completely burned out (working on weekend), but I think what they did was (and I have no idea where i read/listened to this) they stocked up on the wrong things.. I mean home depot is killing it as are many others that called it correctly..

I know i read these statements to me all i hear when reading it is demand is soft and margins will be compressed...
Side not not sure i ever heard IR come out and saying our margins are getting...
Like unless they stocked up on quarantine essentials i aint buying that shit especially coming from target who did an exceptional job at this the last 10 years.

Now to crypto brothers lets not celebrate before each and every last of those shit coins trades at 0$... With how stupid that whole market is i could easily see em pumping it back up as soon as the tether printer is back on...

Now should you short MSTR well I ve been short for some time now it is a huge shit co that will get a margin call once btc is at 21k go figure, oh also it s CEO already has a conviction for securities fraud and he blew up in the dot.com bubble....
(that being said i ve been short those fuckers on multiple times and the return aint great plus options started being really expensive like 1.5 months ago. That all being said shorting is hard and unless you know what you are doing dont.

Now to the funny side fucken celsius calling their customers community somehow when shit hits the fan it s all about community fucken bastards...
Also as always Binance had a maintenance issues so that BTCs could not get withdrawn like in every fucken crash... BUt MUH decentralized finance... These people are so gullible

Also i just want to remind people that fucken Celsius is not even 1/5th the size of the tether fraud

 

[Pimpin]

I know i read these statements to me all i hear when reading it is demand is soft and margins will be compressed...
Side not not sure i ever heard IR come out and saying our margins are getting...
Like unless they stocked up on quarantine essentials i aint buying that shit especially coming from target who did an exceptional job at this the last 10 years.

Now to crypto brothers lets not celebrate before each and every last of those shit coins trades at 0$... With how stupid that whole market is i could easily see em pumping it back up as soon as the tether printer is back on...

Now should you short MSTR well I ve been short for some time now it is a huge shit co that will get a margin call once btc is at 21k go figure, oh also it s CEO already has a conviction for securities fraud and he blew up in the dot.com bubble....
(that being said i ve been short those fuckers on multiple times and the return aint great plus options started being really expensive like 1.5 months ago. That all being said shorting is hard and unless you know what you are doing dont.

Now to the funny side fucken celsius calling their customers community somehow when shit hits the fan it s all about community fucken bastards...
Also as always Binance had a maintenance issues so that BTCs could not get withdrawn like in every fucken crash... BUt MUH decentralized finance... These people are so gullible

Also i just want to remind people that fucken Celsius is not even 1/5th the size of the tether fraud

Don't get me wrong I think demand is softening I just do not think it ever softens for "basic" goods.

I've shorted, I mean shit I am short rivian and cloudflare right now. Though I may close the rivian short as they have a buttload of cash. Cloudflare was a huge conviction short that i've been buying puts heavy against since November iirc. I remember writing a post here how it made 0 sense how Akamai, Cloudflare and Fastly were trading. 1 year on, cloudflare has less market cap (imo still a long way to go down) and fastly is at around 1 bn market cap..

I have a small short on carvana as well but yes, i am afraid of these fucking bear market rallies that can go 50% up in 3 days .

Has there ever been a person that has blown up twice like microstrategy CEO? Like if this guy does good its almost certainly a bubble lol.

I hate crypto bros so much man, when I was reading Hayek's denationalisation of money, these mfs had no idea what money was. But yeah feel sad how fucking gullible these people were, thinking they had rediscovered the very concept of finance

 

[Pimpin]

Im loading up kn cloudflare puts this bad boy has a lot to catch up up down

:slick:

 

[Pimpin]

Microstrategy is getting a margin call..

 

[Adriano@10]

Has there ever been a person that has blown up twice like microstrategy CEO? Like if this guy does good its almost certainly a bubble lol.

I hate crypto bros so much man, when I was reading Hayek's denationalisation of money, these mfs had no idea what money was. But yeah feel sad how fucking gullible these people were, thinking they had rediscovered the very concept of finance

I think cathie did also blow up in 2000 and i know her performance in 08 was a lot worse then the market. Ofcourse back then she was a lot smaller and maybe not even calling all the shots.
Garcia senior while not blowing up he already has a fraud conviction from the 90s also in connection with car dealerships thats also big part of the reason why his son is the face of carvana and he s in the back ground as owner.

On the MSTR liquidation looks a lot like they already posted additional collateral in the form of BTC so that there wont be a margin call/forced liquidation. Saylor is gonna go down with this ship as long as he has a cent or a fraction of a BTC to put up as collateral he s gonna do so.

The celsius story seems to be more important ATM and it looks like they have a mechanism that is force selling a lot of their tokens...
Fallout thus far has been quite fucken big though and the bleeding cant seem to stop.
Now since all those crooks and their business models depend mostly on numbers go up in order to function i do wonder if any of the big guys FTX/Binance/Tether will step in to bail out these guy? Again look at the damage Celsius is doing if saylor goes down to i m not sure there is anything left over to safe.
Also we know that celsius has already gotten loans from crypto exchanges in attempts to get over their current crisis.

Also if you ever have free time and want a giggle do some research on Alex Mashinsky dudes too much. Basically shitting on banks wearing shirts that say banks are not your friend all while running what pretty much is an unregulated bank in the crypto space that also has the neat little disclosure of if we go bankrupt your money might not be yours anymore.

Ohh also before i forget it since we re talking shorting if you feel tempted to short any Coin please do so on a regulated broker or with a bank if they offer that. Shorting crypto on one of their exchanges seems a bit futile as chances are if you win big your counterparty wont be there any more to pay up.