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Adriano@10

Allenatore
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there was a great FT article about it



One of Elon Musk’s most consistent features is his tendency to make promises he does not keep. In 2018, for example, he vowed to launch his own brand of confectionery — a plan that, despite some trademark applications, has yet to generate sweet returns. On Thursday, the Tesla boss made a grander claim: his self-driving taxi could be in production by 2026.

This latest endeavour is more credible, but not by much.Autonomous vehicles for hire, such as the one Musk demonstrated at a live event called “We, Robot”, are almost certainly the future. Driverless cabs already ferry passengers in San Francisco, courtesy of Google subsidiary Waymo. The Tesla “Cybercab” could cost as little as 30 cents a mile to run, compared with the 81 cents it cost to operate a car in the US in 2023.

Where the average car runs fewer than two hours a day, robotaxis could run 10 times that, he suggests.Because Musk loves to throw big numbers around, here is a back-of-the-envelope idea of what is at stake. Americans drive about 3tn miles a year. If 10 per cent of that travel shifts to robotaxis, with passengers paying the roughly $1 a mile it costs to ride a city bus, there could be $300bn of revenue. At a 50 per cent operating margin, valued on the 15 times multiple of operating profit that carmakers such as Ford command, the result is more than $2tn of value.Such figures are pure speculation, of course, but there are wilder estimates out there. Florida-based technology fund Ark Invest reckons Tesla’s value could hit $8tn, 90 per cent of that from robotaxis.

Musk himself has said the Cybercab could drive the company’s worth to $5tn. That does not include any theoretical contribution from a still-in-development humanoid robot, Optimus, which Musk calls potentially “the biggest product ever of any kind”.

For now, little of that is in the share price. Tesla’s market value was $760bn on Thursday. Granted, that is 30 per cent of the value of all listed carmakers, according to LSEG. But that premium valuation owes more to Musk’s past promises to significantly increase production of electric vehicles, including the introduction of a relatively affordable $25,000 model. The shares have risen 45 per cent since Tesla announced a “robotaxi day”, but are down 40 per cent since their peak in 2021.The scepticism is justified. Google, Amazon and General Motors are also vying for robotaxi supremacy.


There are multiple regulators to be won over before rides can be hailed. Besides, Musk has a habit of being cavalier with deadlines: in 2015, he predicted fully autonomous cars by 2018. Even Thursday’s big reveal was originally scheduled for August. Investors can believe in the Tesla chief’s entertaining vision but are sensible not to stake their fortunes on it.



also since I have a bit of time may do a write up on helios towers
Read it before still think it s slighly problematic that nobody points out Elon is chasing the pack in both FSD and Robotics...
And ofcourse that it took till today for any big outlet to state the obvious that the bots were remote controlled and not run by AI.
I just dont get why on earth the rules dont apply to elon and tesla
 
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Adriano@10

Allenatore
Allenatore
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Bought some 217.5 tesla puts on Monday knowing that they will most likely present shit numbers today.... thik the 190s might be in play and the 200s for sure are.
Then again it s tesla and elon so he might just lie his ass of and i get wrecked in AH, so i guess pray for me boys.. although the options are up 56% atm gonna hold till tomorrow

Also for all the dip buyers MCD now is a lot more attractive imho than Nike was like 1 months ago...
 

Adriano@10

Allenatore
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Bought some 217.5 tesla puts on Monday knowing that they will most likely present shit numbers today.... thik the 190s might be in play and the 200s for sure are.
Then again it s tesla and elon so he might just lie his ass of and i get wrecked in AH, so i guess pray for me boys.. although the options are up 56% atm gonna hold till tomorrow

Also for all the dip buyers MCD now is a lot more attractive imho than Nike was like 1 months ago...
Lol and here come the obvious lies and my put options are worthless
 

Adriano@10

Allenatore
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I ll never understand how WS keeps on doubting the Zuck...Dude keeps on delivering and jet WS keeps on being skeptical...

He might be the most underrated CEO there is.
Side note i get how one can not like the dude but his execution as a CEO has been fucken on point
 

Adriano@10

Allenatore
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Got some short term election play bets going since last week.. Mostly cause i thought those betting sites like polymarkets got it way wrong...
Closed em yesterday at a 120% and rolled em....
About 30% down on the rolled contracts though...
Straddles probably would be a safer and better strat, but i cant be bothered so hey re all one directional plays...
 

Adriano@10

Allenatore
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KOK djt up 36% investors celebrating the US going full on banana republic...
Thank fuck i took profits on monday, contracts rolled are worthless obviously thoug... A straddle would have worked like a charm though
 

crzdcolombian

La Grande Inter
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KOK djt up 36% investors celebrating the US going full on banana republic...
Thank fuck i took profits on monday, contracts rolled are worthless obviously thoug... A straddle would have worked like a charm though

maybe he was robbed in 2020 haha

all I will say is my net worth went up 5x under Biden. The stock market is stronger than ever. Let hope Donny T keeps the market the way it is.
 

Adriano@10

Allenatore
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maybe he was robbed in 2020 haha

all I will say is my net worth went up 5x under Biden. The stock market is stronger than ever. Let hope Donny T keeps the market the way it is.
I m just gonna say what i say every god damn fucken time people put way to much of the stock performance on who ever is president when in fact he has very little influence....
I mean the repeal of glass-steagal happened under Clinton and many look at that as a reason for why the GFC happened and was that bad... But by the time that realization was in Clinton was far from office and that repeal helped the Bush admin look pretty god damn good till shit hit the fan...
Of course other factors played a role but just to illustrate how long it can take for a presidents actions to play out on the markets...
And how any short term benefit may come with harsh consequences down the line....

Also people act like the president has control over the fed which news flash he does not have (at least on paper).

In more positive notes been going over HIMS after their Q3 massive beat and after going over it man seldom have i seen mgm that performed on that level.
Dudes been hitting their targets way early and raising guidance for some time now and they re still hitting home runs....

Valuation is a bit rich but when compared to the competition very fair especially considering growth and MGM execution.....
 
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