Stocks

[Adriano@10]

The US justice department has offered $15m for the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, after charging him with narco-terrorism.


lets fucking go, one good thing finally

It s a good thing but the timing is fucked cannot help but think they re using this as a distraction. It s not like maduro just started being an asshole.


Anyways futures seem to come back to reality.

 

[Pimpin]

920 new deaths in Italy today.. markets are very very far from bottoming out

 

[Fapuccino]

What a disaster this has been for Italy. Just by comparison, the US has more overall cases, and Italy reported as many deaths today as there are altogether in USA.

 

[Pimpin]

What a disaster this has been for Italy. Just by comparison, the US has more overall cases, and Italy reported as many deaths today as there are altogether in USA.

my guy you either skipped logic class or are you straight being a troll

cases show up after a few days, after a few weeks you start getting deaths unfortunately

 

[.h.]

the problem for itatly has been age of population - thats why their date rate is comparatively high

 

[Fapuccino]

my guy you either skipped logic class or are you straight being a troll

cases show up after a few days, after a few weeks you start getting deaths unfortunately

I skipped "logic class"? You realize the US numbers are orders of magnitudes higher than what is reported? Their testing per capita has been abysmal.

This has existed there for a long time. They simply didn't test it. You have athletes, politicians, actors, etc... that have been infected there for a while.

 

[Pimpin]

I skipped "logic class"? You realize the US numbers are orders of magnitudes higher than what is reported? Their testing per capita has been abysmal.

This has existed there for a long time. They simply didn't test it.

and italy did? Italy has entered a lockdown 2 weeks ago. They had 15k cases and 2k deaths. Us had 6k cases 9 days ago. They are literally playing catch up and unfortunately itll be a shitfest

Spain had 770 deaths as well, what was the reason there?


also from ft

 

[Fapuccino]

and italy did? Italy has entered a lockdown 2 weeks ago.

Spain had 770 deaths as well, what was the reason there?

Yes, the point is Italy didn't "start earlier", so the US has to catch up. That makes no sense. In fact, places like New York were probably exposed to this much earlier than Italy, yet have nowhere near the amount of fatalities.

This is true, but the opposite is also true. There are many deaths where CV was only a supporting factor. I think in Italy only 10% of reported CV deaths were attributed directly to CV.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-...se/have-many-coronavirus-patients-died-italy/

 

[Wobblz]

The curve in the USA is pretty much the same as Italy's before shit hit the fan. Seeing how they're dealing with the situation over the Atlantic they're in for a rough awakening, sadly.

And man, if you want a population that's already in shit health - look no further than obese Americans. Diabetes, heart and circulation problems, you name it.

 

[brehme1989]

It was expected. Same goes for the UK. They have both been very sloppy here.

 

[Pimpin]

.

 

[Fapuccino]

It seems they're all reporting deaths very differently. Italy is being pretty liberal with the numbers. Anyone dying who has CV is listed as part of their tally, even though only a small number are dying directly because of it.

By comparison, 1% of Italy passes away every year, and that's 1,600 deaths/day on average. We have no idea how much CV is contributing to that.

 

[Pimpin]

It seems they're all reporting deaths very differently. Italy is being pretty liberal with the numbers. Anyone dying who has CV is listed as part of their tally, even though only a small number are dying directly because of it.

By comparison, 1% of Italy passes away every year, and that's 1,600 deaths/day on average. We have no idea how much CV is contributing to that.

there are reports (from a doctor for financial times) that the death rate is much higher in bergamo as opposed to the past few years

 

[Fapuccino]

there are reports (from a doctor for financial times) that the death rate is much higher in bergamo as opposed to the past few years

Yeah it should definitely be higher. I wish we had more info than just cases/deaths/ages though.

The Associated Press put out an article saying that region's infectious rate was especially bad because of Atalanta-Valencia, where everyone was hugging and kissing

https://apnews.com/ae59cfc0641fc63afd09182bb832ebe2

 

[crzdcolombian]

Do you guys think we missed the bottom in the market man some real good names were basically free

I still worried to get in it seems we still in the 1st phase of it

 

[ADRossi]

Do you guys think we missed the bottom in the market man some real good names were basically free

I still worried to get in it seems we still in the 1st phase of it

I don't think we've hit the bottom. As the number of deaths and cases reported increase, I think there will be an increased panic. Q2 earnings are going to be atrocious for most companies (and Q1) which should lead to some stocks being pegged back further.

 

[brehme1989]

Do you guys think we missed the bottom in the market man some real good names were basically free

I still worried to get in it seems we still in the 1st phase of it

It felt like the bottom when I pulled the trigger. I'm 20% up now and even had a 8% drop yesterday.

But I honestly feel like some of these comanies will drop even lower at some point but I wouldn't touch anything else until mid-June to mid-July when we have more information on who is going bust.


I'm not even in the mood yet to check for any other opportunities. LVS and the Big Oil companies felt like no brainers to me. Xerox also. Coca Cola will cope. General Electric will survive once they sell off a bunch of their assets and keep doing business with Boieng. And Delta Airlines still feels like one of the few healthy airlines but that sector is a shitshow. I was between Delta and Southwest but I won't be touching American Airlines that I was considering as a gamble for example.

With both Chevron and Conoco I'm over 30% up. Exxon just 12%.
GE is 20% up from where I got them.
Las Vegas Sands was affected yesterday and is only at 12% up but was almost 40% up at some point during the week.

I made a post earlier before buying Coca Cola (4% up) that I'd consider Bank of America as well. Still see them as a viable option but there's not a great upside there.

I won't start selling unless I see a 100% increase somewhere. I can sit on this for a long time so I don't really care about the when so much, but honestly feels like September/October will be that time unless something extraordinary happens such as Boieng going bust as well as a couple of colossal corporations that you wouldn't expect hearing bad news about, and I'm not talking about the car industry.

 

[Adriano@10]

Do you guys think we missed the bottom in the market man some real good names were basically free

I still worried to get in it seems we still in the 1st phase of it

Nope impossible to tell the bottom but it sure as hell looked like a dead cat bounce if i ever saw one.
All the econ data last week has been horrible from jobless claims to gdp contraction and thats not just in the US thats basically from vietnam all the way to the us. Also the west is gonna see the bigger impact in Q2...........
On top of that with the vix at levels that it currently is no way has this market calmed.

Also check 08 and check 1929 both times like we had now an initial huge drop something in that 25 to 30% rate then a 2 to 3 days rally of around 15to20% and then another 25 to 30% drop over the next months.......

ALso lets not forget that all the experts screaming buy the dip themselfes say they have no idea how the fundamentals are gonna look but because of technical analysis it should be a good point to buy is say fucken bs if you dont know the fundamentals it s a blind buy and it s all based on hope.

Also i still think we re gonna see a decently big name go down and that will spook markets further and fucking oil is still threatening the viability of a huge US industry. Also sentiment is still way to fucken positive out there we got very little good news this week and a shit ton of bad news in terms of spread/in terms of gdp growth, yet markets are up some 15%+ percent on the week...... Check how pulic sentiment towards stock was after the dot.com bubble or the 08 crisis, we re not there yet there still to many people thinking will get back to normal production and consumption within 1 or two months which is absolutely delusional.
I think there are good names that are close to being at their bottom or that you ll gonna be very happy with your buy 3 to 5 years down the road.
But if this is/was the bottom than we re in for another shit show once earnings are presented.
I mean i ve said it before but fucken twitter pulled it s guidance because of covid-19 if twitter s gonna miss its targets a purely online based company with zero manufacturing that makes it s money through ads and should only feel it in later stages of the down turn is already pulling it s guidance in q1.....

I m usually not a bearish investor but i dont get the optimism i see in these markets especially if you take a look at whats happening in the us debt markets it s a cluster fuck and spreads are waaaaaay off.

Best sign we got last week is that a couple of insiders are starting to buy their own companies shares, everything else has been pretty horrendous.

We do have to consider though that algo trading is also in play here and probably is currently making those closing swings way worse then they would be without automated trading.

I m still shorting stuff bought carnival puts on thursday when i saw that they wont qualify for gov grants up 48% since then.

 

[Pimpin]

I agree with adriano. Even if markets have priced in the downfall of Q1 and Q2, I do not think they are aware the severity of the virus (in new york of 100k tested 50k have been positive, the other states have less positive % on people tested, however I think this is largely due to asymptomatic carriers and unfortunately states like florida will get bad), nor have they priced in how long it will last (assuming no vaccine this year). Once the markets start pricing that in, in my opinion it will go further down from the lows of 2 weeks ago.

 

[Fapuccino]

The pattern is a bunch of local ups and downs with a general downward trend. The stimulus was simply a local high, but the general trend is still downward and will continue until they end quarantines.

Btw, if the fed just prints more $$ and hands it out, won't that largely solve the problem? You'd get no inflation because that money evaporated out of the economy to begin with.

I agree with adriano. Even if markets have priced in the downfall of Q1 and Q2, I do not think they are aware the severity of the virus (in new york of 100k tested 50k have been positive, the other states have less positive % on people tested, however I think this is largely due to asymptomatic carriers and unfortunately states like florida will get bad), nor have they priced in how long it will last (assuming no vaccine this year). Once the markets start pricing that in, in my opinion it will go further down from the lows of 2 weeks ago.

I love how you guys talk about the "markets" as some sort of rational entity. The market is a bunch of schizos pumping and dumping based on whims. They reported depression era job numbers which will only get massively worse, and the Dow had a record 13% increase due to stimulus. Did anyone do any math or take an actual look at how the stimulus will affect the economy?