ok so don't call me crackhead just yet, but I actually think Uber can do well in high interest environment. Think of it this way:
Uber shitco competes with other subsidised shitco. Basically softbank funds taxi company A, to compete against its own Taxi Company B. Cheap credit made it possible for shitcos to throw money at customers to gain them. Insert rising interest rates. Shitco B can't raise capital anymore, so people will go with Shitco A aka Uber, who they know alot more..
last quarter could offer a glimpse into the future..
Again it s been what 13 years and those fuckers cant seem to get decent margins unless they fuck over their employees or they brake labour laws. Imho it s time to accept that adding an app to a taxi service does not fundamentally change the margins of the game. All their new products have not really helped with improving things either. Even if uber takes the cake cause lyft has to shut it s door how big is that market? and how much margins will legislators allow uber to extract from that? On top of that Uber has prooven to have an especially shitty mgm wasting money on trying to solve autonomous driving fly taxis and other bs. Uhh and the newest gimmick book everything in the uber app from the cab ride to the airport to the flight to the hotel, now why the fuck would any person do that?
Lets book my holiday on the taxi app cause it s convinient really? When usually the cab ride to the airport is the last thing on anybodys mind when booking a trip.
Aso Lyft aint the only competition in town still around atleast outside of the us there are stil lots of cabs here they usually do both...
Last but not least im pretty confident that autonomous rides will take a significant bit out of the market in big US cities within the next 5 years and uber is just nowhere to be seen there.
Used to be a huge uber bull (mostly pre Ipo) by now i m quite convinced that it s just another shit co that got lucky with timing/legislation.
Just my two cents i might be very wrong and will soon all be living in Travis world of horror and be ordering and buying everything on the uber app.
On pypl CPNG and PAGS why do you throw them all in the same basket? I mean quick glance tells me paypal at 10x rev paga at 1.1 and Coupang at 4x..
Just from a quick glance paga seems a lot more attractive imho. Also i guess i already ranted on paypal some where in this tread so i m gonna leave that out...
Man this shit starts to feel a lot like the 2000s we had rate hikes a sharp correction we re at the point of hiring freezes, soon the layoffs will start...
I m still a bit reculant to cut down my longs further though as this market has been a bitch and my only yolo stock left is stone....
Short book is doing amazing and will keep on doing so till the likes CVNA, AMC and mstr are either 0s or in single digits.
I also have the likes of ADJ, onon , rivn, coin on my short book but there i usually jump in and out as I m not as convinced as with the others that they are 0 just grossly overvalued. Of course the same goes for tesla and i bought a tiny short position in twtr just in case musk backs off of buying that shitshow.
My biggest concern right now are commodities as i mentioned before extremely hard to predict oil peak could easily already have passed but could just as easily go up to the 180s. Still holding on to my oil longs though as even the announcement of china moving back to normal should move prices up.
Then there is my copper play which I still think is gonna work out fine but depending on how deep a recession we get even that might not work out that great on the long side. Only thing that makes me calm in this investment is that i think no matter what the demand for copper will stay high and we clearly dont have enough supply in the forseable future. Like i dont think our push to EVS and batteries in general will be hit in any significant way even if we hit a bad recession.
EDIT: temptd to add affirm to the short side now thats a business model thats gona get rekt in a down turn. ANd yes even more then it already got rekt
10 years of FIF
Nostradamus
Most Passionate Member
Forum Supporter
