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brehme1989

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As for the rest you sent I'll check it out on Monday as I'm away at a beach resort now :)

But I think I've already seen those books
 

brehme1989

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What relevance do the bonds have? You're moving the goalposts after I pointed out you were incorrect about inter paying the great horizons interest

Just like you couldn't admit/comprehend that papa Zhang is (was) the club's UBO, the same relevance is there with who bought the bonds, with what guarantees they financed all that and so on. There's a reason people don't reach the valuation and there's a [multitude of] reason(s) why Suning out means it'd be much easier to get a new owner.

Things are connected, just because you want to see all the dots become a straight line to believe it doesn't mean squat.
 

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Thats the point I keep bringing up that you're ignoring

The *rumour* is that the clause requires Oaktree to pay fair value for the 'rest' of Inter - e.g. if the club is assessed fair value, then they'd have to pay the (750-415) cash for the balance of the Zhang shares.

I've never heard of anything like it, but the media were pretty adamant about it earlier in the year, and it would explain by Zhang secured it against their entire Inter stake.


From the Oaktree perspective - its not 1 dollar for 30 cents though, even without that clause. Its 1 zimbabwean dollar for fair FX rate for the equivalent in USD, but its decreasing in value every passing second, and needs you to bring in a bunch of administrators to manage and run. It's more like someone's given you a house in some shithole part of town and you're going to have to fix it, market it, rent/sell it, etc.


We'll find out in 48 hours anyway.

Why would other stakeholders sell at "fair value"? What level is fair value because you have 0 way of telling fair value.
 

.h.

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man now you're just really hallucinating arguments.

Its been obvious since day 1 that Zhang papa is the owner of Inter. Just because its through a family holding vehicle - remember, I'm the one who pointed this out to the forum, many people here thought we were owned by Suning the retailer - doesnt mean he's not the owner of Inter. My point was your argument of 'CCP would make Zhang sell Inter to fund Suning' was bullshit, and given all the difficulties Suning have had, and Zhang still retains ownership of Inter, I think that argument has been pretty fair.

Your personal speculation on the bonds, without any evidence, is meaningless.


3 posts ago you implied that Inter were paying the bulk of the Great Horizons/Oaktree loan interest. I've just proven that's factually inaccurate. Now you're trying to wave some red flag to distract from the fact that you were just obviously wrong on that.
 

.h.

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Why would other stakeholders sell at "fair value"? What level is fair value because you have 0 way of telling fair value.

Yeah, that's exactly the question I asked at that point in time too, to be fair. Net book value doesnt really make sense to me for a football club because you arent considering guaranteed forward cash flow - even if you factor in realistic transfer values for the players.

But, still, that clause came out circa Jan. Wasnt it in the FT?

Either way, that seems to be the common thinking, an Inter default means Oaktree recovers their cash, but some balance of net proceeds goes back to Great Horizons.
 

Jnr

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As for the rest you sent I'll check it out on Monday as I'm away at a beach resort now :)

But I think I've already seen those books

Beach resort?

Man I have 7 days in Estonian forest army training under heat and mosquitoes.

By all means, enjoy your vacation, Brehme!
 

brehme1989

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Beach resort?

Man I have 7 days in Estonian forest army training under heat and mosquitoes.

By all means, enjoy your vacation, Brehme!
We call it a weekend bro.

Vacation is in Paris during the Olympics and the whole of August in the islands :D
 

ADRossi

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If that's the set of expectations you have, its quite a weird double standard? You're complaining about a reckless spending spree, but kinda expecting exactly that from a new owner?

Dont kid yourself - even if Zhangs werent broke, this is Italy, there'd be 0 fucking progress on stadia anyway.

On the kit sponsor, yeah, that sucks ass. But other clubs like Roma ? have also had no sponsors at all for a period of time


The only way they're "responsible" for this mess is continuing to fund the club rather than just pulling the plug and forcing us to be self-sufficient. They could easily have done that, and by doing so, we'd be back in a proper banter era.


New ownership is not going to fundamentally shift the financial position of the club, unless you find a sugar daddy who is... going to spend recklessly.

We spoend more on salaries + amortisation, than we make as a club. It's as simple as that. The only way to stop spending recklessly is by cutting salaries+amortisation. Who do you want to sell and not replace? Tell me how you plan to shave 50m off of our wage+amo bill without replacement and I'm sure the new owners would be all ears too.
Where did I say anything about asking a new owner to come in and spend millions to reinforce the squad? I'm not sitting around praying for an Arab sugar daddy, as wonderful as that would be. @brehme1989 said it best. We would all LOVE someone who views Inter as a crown jewel to their portfolio who wants to own us for the status, not for some misguided dream of future profits. But never once have I made a post on this forum speculating/dreaming/insisting this will happen.

Anyone with a pulse realizes Italian football clubs are poor investments. The only viable long-term options are having stupid money (Man City, PSG, etc.) or having a low-cost model that is always second fiddle to said stupid money clubs (Milan). There's never going to be meaningful annual profits from this club until someone builds us a stadium, because cutting costs in squad building = less success on the pitch = less revenues. You can make some profits on the outright sale of the club if overall valuations climb across the sport, but good luck otherwise.

So what exactly are we doing right now, chilling in financial football purgatory? What's the realistic profitability ceiling of this club if we keep our current model? Answer: not anything meaningful.
 

.h.

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Where did I say anything about asking a new owner to come in and spend millions to reinforce the squad? I'm not sitting around praying for an Arab sugar daddy, as wonderful as that would be. @brehme1989 said it best. We would all LOVE someone who views Inter as a crown jewel to their portfolio who wants to own us for the status, not for some misguided dream of future profits. But never once have I made a post on this forum speculating/dreaming/insisting this will happen.

Anyone with a pulse realizes Italian football clubs are poor investments. The only viable long-term options are having stupid money (Man City, PSG, etc.) or having a low-cost model that is always second fiddle to said stupid money clubs (Milan). There's never going to be meaningful annual profits from this club until someone builds us a stadium, because cutting costs in squad building = less success on the pitch = less revenues. You can make some profits on the outright sale of the club if overall valuations climb across the sport, but good luck otherwise.

So what exactly are we doing right now, chilling in financial football purgatory? What's the realistic profitability ceiling of this club if we keep our current model? Answer: not anything meaningful.
Any new owner is going to have to come in and change tack on what Suning have been doing.

You've got a few options:
1 - Spend 350mil and wipe the bonds debt early
2 - Invest into the squad and get us performing to CL semi finals level regularly
3 - Sell off players to cut our costs so we're profitable
4 - Keep business as usual - and spend millions subsidising our losses over the next few seasons
5 - Bring in new sponsors, etc, to get us closer to profitable. Note we have duration on some of our deals, so that isnt going to radically change anytime too soon.
6 - spend a billion euros for maybe +30-40mil a year in ticket revenue, in 4-5 years time minimum



There's no easy 'radical change' scenario that doesnt involve either serious compromise to Inter, or massive sugar daddying tbh? The big problem at Inter, at the end of the day, is our own expenses. The ownership smokescreen that people love to focus on is exactly that - a smokescreen. This club requires millions sunk into it every year just to keep the lights on. If we were a business we'd have been declared bankrupt years ago - fortunately Zhangs have continued to subsidise and keep this club afloat. Shit, I'd speculate if we were still owned by Thohir during Covid we might have actually gone bust. Dont know what Moratti-era would have looked like during Covid.

Open to discussion on this, I dont see what other options we have. Everything requires investment or spending cuts.
 

brehme1989

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man now you're just really hallucinating arguments.

Its been obvious since day 1 that Zhang papa is the owner of Inter. Just because its through a family holding vehicle - remember, I'm the one who pointed this out to the forum, many people here thought we were owned by Suning the retailer - doesnt mean he's not the owner of Inter. My point was your argument of 'CCP would make Zhang sell Inter to fund Suning' was bullshit, and given all the difficulties Suning have had, and Zhang still retains ownership of Inter, I think that argument has been pretty fair.

I don't know what was said in 2016, I wasn't active back then.
It's also irrelevant because your argument was that Inter was unrelated to the whole Chinese political scene yet instead of signing Sanchez in 2017 we stopped getting funds when CCP ordered no more investment in football.
We got news about all kinds of shit coming when Suning was under attack post-covid, plus with the case on Zhang junior in Hong Kong which is probably the greatest stain on Inter's history, having a president that's a fugitive...

But sure, CCP cannot tell Zhang what to do with Inter if they really wanted to. The SPVs the Zhang family uses is completely autonomous...

Your personal speculation on the bonds, without any evidence, is meaningless.

Okay. Maybe 8 years from now I can say I was the only one talking about this?

3 posts ago you implied that Inter were paying the bulk of the Great Horizons/Oaktree loan interest. I've just proven that's factually inaccurate. Now you're trying to wave some red flag to distract from the fact that you were just obviously wrong on that.

Not what I implied. Not really. That's what you got from it.

I merely asked how much interest Inter is paying for the loans Zhang took against the club. Do you think the bond is completely irrelevant?
 

.h.

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bingo, exactly the point.

On top of any net cost of acquiring Inter, you'll have to spend like £400mil sorting out the bonds, etc, to get this club closer to financially healthy, and then there's still work.



This all comes down to one root cause - Zhangs have continued to subsidise Inter (amortisation, wages, etc). If they cut our expenditure to match our expenses, you'd be like 50-100mil a year worse off in terms of cost of squad. Say bye to Barella, Lautaro, Bastoni as a rough ballpark, replace them with primavera, and you've probably got a feel for where we'd be.
 

brehme1989

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How much of that goes to finance Zhang's interest payments?
Just to be clear. This was the question.
On Inter being an entity that drains money and required injections.
 

.h.

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Just to be clear. This was the question.
On Inter being an entity that drains money and required injections.
actually I missed the original question, but I answered this one:


How much of Zhang's loan interest payment is coming from Inter finances?




the answer - <10% of the 100%, rather than of the 12%, if you take my meaning.
 

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right, but buying random parts of small businesses doesnt make you good at running a business... if we want a new owner, for our circusmtances, someone who is rich, but made their backbone growing a small business with hard graft and understands managing opex and capex budgets tightly is the perfect owner for us

They hire people for that, just like Zhang did… it’s far more important ability

A noticeably chunk of the world billionaires aren’t billionaires because they are good at running a businesses on a daily basis, they are because they are good at hiring the right people around them, smart risk management, have the determination, good organisers and good at seeing what person, idea etc to invest in and which not to. The largest sector where people earn big money is now finances and investment.

No billionaire is going to actually run the club they have people for that.
 

.h.

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They hire people for that, just like Zhang did… it’s far more important ability

A noticeably chunk of the world billionaires aren’t billionaires because they are good at running a businesses on a daily basis, they are because they are good at hiring the right people around them, smart risk management, have the determination, good organisers and good at seeing what person, idea etc to invest in and which not to. The largest sector where people earn big money is now finances and investment.

No billionaire is going to actually run the club they have people for that.
Because so many clubs have such a great track record of not wasting their first few seasons under new management :D you make it sound so easy. Yet real world evidence says it's fucking hard
 

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So, the Zhangs have been declining offers from potential buyers since a couple of years (according to journalists) and now they are on the verge of losing Inter for free? LOL

It may turns out good, it may turns out bad. It only depends on the potential buyer. I doubt Oaktree would give a fuck to who they will sell, they will simply want to get the money.

Another question emerges - what will happen with Barella, Lautaro and Inzaghi extensions if Zhang loses Inter?
 

.h.

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So, the Zhangs have been declining offers from potential buyers since a couple of years (according to journalists) and now they are on the verge of losing Inter for free? LOL

It may turns out good, it may turns out bad. It only depends on the potential buyer. I doubt Oaktree would give a fuck to who they will sell, they will simply want to get the money.

Another question emerges - what will happen with Barella, Lautaro and Inzaghi extensions if Zhang loses Inter?


No one knows. I think a new owner would be really stupid to jeopardise the current trajectory of this club because we are in a great direction, but who knows. A lot of risk right now. Of all possible options maybe like 5% are better than Zhang.
 

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This guy just won't quit.
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