Napoli - Inter (18 Apr 21) [1-1]

[Il Drago]

It might be oversimplified, but is it really wrong? Here are Juve's point totals through 30 games in recent years:

2019-'20: 75
2018-'19: 81
2017'-18: 78
2016-'17: 74
2015-'16: 70

Average: 75.6 points

(And, no, I don't know if the previous four seasons raise or lower that number. I don't care. I think using the last five seasons provides enough of a reference point to not just be selectively picking and choosing seasons for the benefit of the point I'm trying to make.)

We're on 74 points this year, they're on 62. If they were performing to their average level of expectation in recent years, they would be a couple points ahead of us. That's not an indictment against us; we're on pace for 93.7 points this season. Only the 2006-'07 team did better. It's speaks to the standard that Juve has set in recent years, just how many points you need to win a Scudetto more often than not. Napoli picked up 91 points in 2017-'18, and it wasn't enough.

Now, the hope we can all have is that Juve sagging down to this level - which is still a 78-79 point trajectory - will be something of a new normal for them in the next few years. But that's probably wishful thinking. The broader point, in any case, is that the level needed to beat them over a full season is usually higher than it's turned out to be this season. Obviously the credit does go to this team for taking advantage of it to the fullest, at least up through this point. Next season probably won't be so easy, though, so just be ready for that if you aren't already.

EDIT: Don't forget that they played to varying stages of the Champions League knockout stages in all of those seasons (although the most minimal impact was made in 2019-'20). We hope to be doing the same next year while fighting for the Scudetto.

In order to put this in perspective i checked the points league leaders had after 30 games in the last 15 years.

2007: 79 points
2008: 68 points
2009: 72 points
2010: 63 points
2011: 62 points
2012: 64 points
2013: 68 points
2014: 81 points
2015: 70 points
2016: 70 points
2017: 74 points
2018: 78 points
2019: 81 points
2020: 75 points
2021: 74 points

We can argue Juve have made it easy for us but this is the case for the opponents of past champions as well. In the last 15 years, only 5 teams had made it better than Inter this season.

 

[Ed.]

It goes both ways. Juve declined while Inter stepped up. We were -11 at this point last season and now we are +12. It's not just juve is worse but Inter have become better.

 

[ElDuccio]

Just like how our decline made it easier for them to win it 9 in a row.

exactly, that's what i always say. Where was Inter and Milan all this years? Theyre only concurent was Napoli that never had the money to improve the squad. And just think about how many years Juve got CL money + Scudetto money, while Inter and Milan not even the money from CL. Not to forget the FFP problems too. Juve is/was lights ahead of us. Just like Inter was 2010 while they still had to recover after Calciopoli. Our collapse was also part of the reason why they started wining. Now the same is happening to us.

 

[brakbrak]

exactly, that's what i always say. Where was Inter and Milan all this years? Theyre only concurent was Napoli that never had the money to improve the squad. And just think about how many years Juve got CL money + Scudetto money, while Inter and Milan not even the money from CL. Not to forget the FFP problems too. Juve is/was lights ahead of us. Just like Inter was 2010 while they still had to recover after Calciopoli. Our collapse was also part of the reason why they started wining. Now the same is happening to us.

Yep and I couldn't be happier. I don't give a fuck about competition right now in serie a as we've been suffering enough for the last 9 years or so. That's why I'm happy and not worried at all about this season.

 

[Kramerica Industries]

In order to put this in perspective i checked the points league leaders had after 30 games in the last 15 years.

2007: 79 points
2008: 68 points
2009: 72 points
2010: 63 points
2011: 62 points
2012: 64 points
2013: 68 points
2014: 81 points
2015: 70 points
2016: 70 points
2017: 74 points
2018: 78 points
2019: 81 points
2020: 75 points
2021: 74 points

We can argue Juve have made it easy for us but this is the case for the opponents of past champions as well. In the last 15 years, only 5 teams had made it better than Inter this season.

Here's what I'll say in response to this, and it'll seem like I'm arguing against myself.

The average point total in that time is 71.9. Yes, in eight of those 15 seasons, 74 points would have you ahead, and in one other besides this one it would have you tied at the top. It does need to be worth noting, however, that the majority of those seasons where that's the case come either from before Juve's current run of nine straight Scudetti, or happened very early on during it when they were good enough to be the best team in Italy but not yet really a threat to do all that much in the Champions League. As they strengthened, the points tallies went up. For all we know, Juve might be entering a multi-year decline phase - we would all love this to be the case - but we don't know that with any kind of certainty yet, so we can't act like that's the case yet. So, for the time being, I still think we need to compare ourselves with the Juve teams of recent past seasons in order to know just where we're stacking up overall.

That being said, it's not lost on me that the majority of Juve's run has come during a time when both us and Milan have been lousy clubs. Yeah, clubs like Lazio and Roma and Napoli have had decent seasons during that time, but we're talking about three clubs with, what, a combined three Scudetti in the last 30+ years or so? They can't fill the vacuum that was left behind when the Milanese clubs both went into decline. We look like we're finally back to being a top club. Milan...I'm keeping the jury out on that. If they do make the Champions League this season, that's definitely going to be a boost for them in the transfer market, and, depending on how that goes, they might just be able to offset statistical regression for next season if they can make some positive purchases there. One of many reasons to hope they have one more slump in them and someone like Napoli or Lazio can overtake them. Regardless, if both of these clubs are back towards being at the top end of the table and fighting for Champions League positions, all the while you have Atalanta on their positive trajectory and still have the Lazio/Roma/Napoli trio all solid in their own rights...it may not be the original Seven Sisters but that is seven teams who are all capable of beating one another on a given day, which is more than you could say about the league for most of Juve's run. Thus, that's going to result in points totals not being quite as high, because they're being more equally distributed. So, while Juve's set a high standard in recent seasons, it may not be necessary to match that same standard moving forward, because the league as a whole is more competitive now than it was then.

Juve's 30 game totals got stronger the further into their 9-year run they got. Hopefully our next nine seasons look similar in that regard. Domestically, anyway; our DNA isn't hardwired to choke in every Champions League Final.

 

[CafeCordoba]

Yep and I couldn't be happier. I don't give a fuck about competition right now in serie a as we've been suffering enough for the last 9 years or so. That's why I'm happy and not worried at all about this season.

Yeah there hasn't been true competition in Serie A in past 7 or something years either.

 

[ADRossi]

Wanted to see this curse for myself:
2019-20: Verona-Inter 2-2
2018-19: Inter-Atalanta 0-0
2017-18: Torino-Inter 1-0
2016-17: Crotone-Inter 2-1
2015-16: Inter-Torino 1-2
2014-15: Inter-Milan 0-0
2013-14: Livorno-Inter 2-2
2012-13: Inter-Atalanta 3-4
2011-12: Cagliari-Inter 2-2
2010-11: Milan-Inter 3-0
2009-10: Roma-Inter 2-1
2008-09: Inter-Palermo 2-2
2007-08: Lazio-Inter 1-1
2006-07: Reggina-Inter 0-0
2005-06: Parma-Inter 1-0
2004-05: Inter-Cagliari 2-0 !!!!!!!!!! Ze Maria and Obafemi Martins with the goals

The 2004-05 was the first season with 20 teams, so 2003-4 matchday 31 is just 4 games before the end.

Anyway, this was painful

Ah, so this matchday is the anniversary of the Crotone loss with a double midfield pivot of Medel and Kondogbia I mentioned the other day. Terrific.

 

[Kakaroto]

Insigne will help us out. He’s an Interista.

 

[capitano92]

MATCH PREVIEW FOR #INTERNAPOLI !

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eighzT-t0XI

 

[armendsh]

Sooo who will start alongside Barella and brozovic? Sensi or Eriksen?

 

[YoramG]

Sooo who will start alongside Barella and brozovic? Sensi or Eriksen?

Happy with either, but I imagine Conte will want Eriksen for that added defensive stability he seems to be bringing (heh, who would've thought I'd be typing that a year ago).

I am excited for this game, but I do believe this is where our win streak ends, which is fine. Following this we have Spezia, Verona, Crotone, and Samp, before facing Roma. That's a good lot of games where we can continue to collect points.

Haven't conceded a back post header by an Insigne cross in a while, so I imagine it'll happen today. Other than that, Lukaku and Lautaro to have a field day.

 

[bubba zanetti]

Would love to se Perisic instead Young,fuck him.Play Darmian,just dont field Young,too slow,sluggish,guy is a wreck.

 

[Sawyer]

I swear this game was on Thursday, came home early for it .. swear it then said Saturday.. got home and ready.. so is this for sure on tonight?!

Can't wait, looking forward to it. I hope Eriksen starts, lets just get Sensi in on subs etc until league is secured/we don't really need him then the summer comes.. if we can get Sensi game time without injury the rest of season its win win wether we keep him or sell/loan him.

 

[kurt0411]

Lose this game please

 

[.h.]

if we lose this game the chance of Juve going out of the CL increases massively.

That being said, if we win this game, we basically have the league wrapped I think. Shame Milan didnt draw earlier though.

 

[Dylan]

What's with the loser talk. Easy win incoming.

 

[Shark]

Losing this game would have the silver lining of Napoli edging closer to push Rube off of top 4.
---
Echoing what others already said

 

[.h.]

I'm just pointing the fact out, not suggesting we want to or should lose.

Weird world - Milan fans want us to win so they're more likely to make the CL, I guess Juve fans probably want us to win to solidify their place in the CL, SOME Inter fans want Napoli to win so Juve are more likely to go out of the CL.

This must be the most weird and varied scenario I've ever seen.

 

[Glass box]

Napoli are team that would win against us and then shit their pants anyway. So fuck that, I want a win for us here.

 

[acroMacho]

I just want a decisive result. Both winning and losing actually sound good.