Stocks

Is it a good time to sell Nio or is this some next gen Tesla like cult that I want to be on the ride of?

brehme1989 said:

Is it a good time to sell Nio or is this some next gen Tesla like cult that I want to be on the ride of?

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Nothing is as culty as Tesla but the whole ev sector is in a massive bubble check what BYD did since march and i think even nio outperformed Tesla since march when looking at stock price, thing is I expect it to go quite fast once the bubble bursts once tesla is taken down. That being said i think nio is a better business and backed by the chinese state so chances of them going complete bust are way lower.

That all being said i m waiting for that EV bubble to burst since November and all it brought me are losses. Also side note tesla down 5% pre market.

FT with a good point on the vaccine candidates: https://www.ft.com/content/2aec0597-1de3-4181-93a0-1da9483d8b26

Netflix with the earnings miss. I genuinely love their product, but looking at the competition and boy will they have it hard, especially at this valuation

Pimpin said:

Netflix with the earnings miss. I genuinely love their product, but looking at the competition and boy will they have it hard, especially at this valuation

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We just saw what happens when growth expectations are overly optimistic at some point they re gonna miss models will get corrected and once growth rate slows price drops significantly. #NFLX
Then again still love their mgm so if they drop further i might take a look into it. Also listening to BoA yesterday sounded quite good as in put them on my need to do some more research page.

Do you think they can compete for content with their competitors? I love Netflix, but increasingly the content has dipped in quality.

Amazing new study published by Oxford

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1


"It is widely believed that the herd immunity threshold (HIT) required to prevent a resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 is in excess of 50% for any epidemiological setting. Here, we demonstrate that HIT may be greatly reduced if a fraction of the population is unable to transmit the virus due to innate resistance or cross-protection from exposure to seasonal coronaviruses. The drop in HIT is proportional to the fraction of the population resistant only when that fraction is effectively segregated from the general population; however, when mixing is random, the drop in HIT is more precipitous. Significant reductions in expected mortality can also be observed in settings where a fraction of the population is resistant to infection. These results help to explain the large degree of regional variation observed in seroprevalence and cumulative deaths and suggest that sufficient herd-immunity may already be in place to substantially mitigate a potential second wave.
"


British Airways retires its entire fleet of Boeing 747 jets

https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1284067411969429507

Pimpin said:

Do you think they can compete for content with their competitors? I love Netflix, but increasingly the content has dipped in quality.

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Imho yes they proved that they can produce hits/great tv shows and lest not forget 80% of content can be crappy, i mean how much of disney s catalogue is really great and how much more of it is okish? I think netflix found a very nice niche with documentaries and Comedy special where they are number 1. On top of that they are getting more regional with a couple of good shows coming from spain/italy and france i m sure there s more i just dont know of yet. Most important imho Netflix has a big log in effect plus a huge first mover advantage outside the US. Imho outside of the US only disney will offer a compelling alternative to NFLX, most people are just to used to NFLX and have a couple of series or specials on that service that they follow, i doubt they d ditch that for a HBO that has like one Huge series that runs every other year. On top of that it s not like Apple amazn and HBO have a advantage over NFLX when it comes to their catalogue, also netflix proved it can get the big guys to work for them.....
Imho youtube tv raising it s price to 69$/ months is pretty much a capitulation, Apple will never works simply cause it limits its selfe to apple TV, Imho amazntv is just a gimmick to offer their prime subscribers an additional benefit but i m sure it will not add to amazons bottom line. The ones that are left imho just dont have the international pull to dethrone NFLX. Imho they ll sooner or later give up running their own platform and just produce content that they sell to either disney or NFLX or whom ever else is left in that space.
If that is my believe and i love NFLX mgm why have i not invested yet? Simple i m not sure about the pricing power it s quite obvious that it s gonna be a battle for content for the next say 5 years, where all the platforms will try to lure the biggest producers and the biggest series to their medium, now this might and should increases prices for those shows/actors/producers even more which will look bad on the P/L s of the streaming networks. Of course once that dynamic will eventually shift once there are only a few platforms left. Now my problem when it comes to estimating longterm value of NFLX lies exactly here while TAM and potential future revenues are quite easy to estimates, production costs for future content is extremely hard to guess just like how much new content will need to be produced in order to keep customer on the platform. I m not sure futur profits will ever justify current valuation basically thats the only reason why i m not in NFLX ATM.

Pimpin said:

Amazing new study published by Oxford

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.07.15.20154294v1


"It is widely believed that the herd immunity threshold (HIT) required to prevent a resurgence of SARS-CoV-2 is in excess of 50% for any epidemiological setting. Here, we demonstrate that HIT may be greatly reduced if a fraction of the population is unable to transmit the virus due to innate resistance or cross-protection from exposure to seasonal coronaviruses. The drop in HIT is proportional to the fraction of the population resistant only when that fraction is effectively segregated from the general population; however, when mixing is random, the drop in HIT is more precipitous. Significant reductions in expected mortality can also be observed in settings where a fraction of the population is resistant to infection. These results help to explain the large degree of regional variation observed in seroprevalence and cumulative deaths and suggest that sufficient herd-immunity may already be in place to substantially mitigate a potential second wave.

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Is it a fact that some people are already immune from the get go? Secondly i d also argue that demographic and cultural differences also have a huge impact on mortality rates not sure if it gets adjusted here. Also do you knwo if they looked at excess death or only at patients that were reported as covid deaths?
Last but not least the more i look into this heard immunity thing the more i lose believe in it as it seems one is only immune for 2/3 months....
Anyway if true that would be interesting and i guess places like italy could be kind of close to herd immunity.

Pimpin said:

British Airways retires its entire fleet of Boeing 747 jets

https://twitter.com/CNBC/status/1284067411969429507

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Yeah saw that: #wegottomanyplanes

Adriano@10 said:

Is it a fact that some people are already immune from the get go? Secondly i d also argue that demographic and cultural differences also have a huge impact on mortality rates not sure if it gets adjusted here. Also do you knwo if they looked at excess death or only at patients that were reported as covid deaths?
Last but not least the more i look into this heard immunity thing the more i lose believe in it as it seems one is only immune for 2/3 months....
Anyway if true that would be interesting and i guess places like italy could be kind of close to herd immunity.

Yeah saw that: #wegottomanyplanes

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the idea behind this paper is that in beginning, or in places that got hit, the virus impacted the susceptible that were very good hosts and that spread the virus. Others that were far more xposed to previous viruses, have some cross immunity. As these hosts either passed away or built immunity (t cells turns out are far more important), the virus lacks hosts to do a second hit. As per study, this would explain why there were far less death rates in regions that reopened.

The study is published by oxford so it's not just anyone.

Professor Karol Sikora
@ProfKarolSikora
Just read the paper from the Oxford group, it really has significant implications.

It's what I've been saying. T cell immunity means there are far less susceptible people than thought.

It could mean the virus is running out of healthy hosts to infect. It would explain a lot.

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also Boris Johnson jsut said that the aim is to have fans in stands in Premier League.

Pimpin said:

the idea behind this paper is that in beginning, or in places that got hit, the virus impacted the susceptible that were very good hosts and that spread the virus. Others that were far more xposed to previous viruses, have some cross immunity. As these hosts either passed away or built immunity (t cells turns out are far more important), the virus lacks hosts to do a second hit. As per study, this would explain why there were far less death rates in regions that reopened.

The study is published by oxford so it's not just anyone.

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I do get that i just dont get where they have their data from...
Or let me say it like this if i get it right they just built this model based on those assumptions right?
So the immunity from previous covid infections is an assumption they took in order to explain the different death rates they saw right? And it s how they come to the conclusion that herd immunity might be closer than thought.
I do have slight problem with that immunity assumption simply because those t cells that are develpped as a immune reaction to covids of any kind usually dont last in our bodies for Longer than 2-3 months so i m a bit skeptical towards that assumption.

That being said those dudes for sure know more on this topic than i do as this is not my field. Also not saying it s bad research or anything, just pointing out what i think might be a flaw. But it could very well be that an actual expert could explain this away without any problems

I almost forgot i glanced over DPZ s earnings yesterday and imho they were very fucken strong especially for a covid quarter now since food is your thing any thought s on them?
Side note i hate their fucken product/

I love dominos pizza. The problem with many pizza afficionados (or afficionados in many other things), is that not everyone wants a hippie local joint pizza . Every dominos i've ever visited had at least 3-4 people in line waiting for their take out. They have small shops designed for take out (at least from what ive seen) which means efficient and less rent (which makes them far more resilient/profitable than competitors). I hate sit in pizza. If i will go for a night out i don't want a f in pizza.

I have not looked at their financials so can't say I would invest, but it seems e very well run. One other thing, Papa Johns could be something i'd look into as well. They do alot of similar things with take out from my experience, but nowhere nearly as good as dominos. Dominos is a fucking institution on a well ran company. (fun fact they use akamai to process/secure payment)

Papa John's pizza is just better.

It's the only chain that serves something that resembles an actual pizza.

Granted they're not the same everywhere, I've tried these things in over 5 countries, I used to eat pizzas 3-5 times a week and I think I'm qualified to make this assessment
Haven't ordered from a big chain in years, but if I do it's going to be Papa John's. Pizza Hut used to be great in the 90s and early 2000s but is close to sponge junk nowadays. Dominos' texure just drives me off.
Small pizza joints do a much better job. And some small local chains also.

Stock buying is not about how you feel, it's about what the majority does. I'd back Domino's stock if I didn't have the mentality of liking and understanding what the companies I invest in do. I like pizza, but not theirs. It's average at best.

Anyone here knows anything about stoneco? I read their annual report and saw a bit at q1 and liked what i saw. Looks like a legitimate WDI.

Pimpin said:

Anyone here knows anything about stoneco? I read their annual report and saw a bit at q1 and liked what i saw. Looks like a legitimate WDI.

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Currently reading up on em but theres not that much info in english other than the filings. I like what i see and if earnings growth goes back to 2019 levels then we d be at a 1.5 $ eps by 22 with growth above 50% should justify a p/e well above 20 probably closer to 30 which would put the stock in that 45-60 range.
That being said the thing that concerns me is the overall econ situation in Brazil and the size of that market as far as i can tell the have not ventured out of Brazil this far and i m not sure if the growth can be kept up within brazil (have not checked jet). After wirecard i m a bit concerned and searching for red flags than again m sure buffet would not put a cent towards anything that has red fags popin up.
Other than that looks like a very solid business have not looked at their debt situation jet though.

Edit: Side note on DPZ i realized that valuation is still outlandish even if growth is very strong...

Please do keep me posted, I think I may open a sizeable position on it.

On other note, akamais competitor, cloudflare, just had a huge meltdown..

https://www.polygon.com/2020/7/17/21329005/cloudflare-outrage-discord-riot-games-july-2020


their own website got down from DDOS attack.. Akamai would never..

- - - Updated - - -

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/major-part-web-offline-cloudflare-suffers-outage

- - - Updated - - -

https://techcrunch.com/2020/07/17/cloudflare-dns-goes-down-taking-a-large-piece-of-the-internet-with-it/?tpcc=ECTW2020

Papa johns I had 1 time. In college shit My brain out for 3 days

Never ever doing that again

Franchise stuff is not the same everywhere, especially pizzas where the ingredients are too varied and do not come from the same source. A pizza place in Japan won't taste the same as one in the USA or in Argentina etc.

Heck, for Subway in London the one next to my place was great but in another London location it was almost like crap. Same sandwich, same franchise, different taste.

Brilliant infographic from Ft

Pimpin said:

Brilliant infographic from Ft

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Now consider on top of that, that reducing fleet atm is almost impossible, as nobody needs planes atm. As in on top of most flight loosing money most airlines will have a good percentage of planes grounded just costing money.

Only company i would touch there is LHA but even there one has to have a very long horizon, also rational would be that the germans aint gonna let em fall and before this shit it was a pretty well run company. imho the us market is gonna see some consolidation cant see all of em coming out of this alive.


Also goto find a way to get into reliance fast swiss finance press starting to write about jio....

Every press will start to write about it. Keep in mind there are other companies that have India exposure that are not talked about, the potential upside for some of them is not priced in IMO. Walmart for example bought Flipkart for 16bn iirc, and on top of it, it got their subsidiary Phone Pe, which handles payments. Flipkart is 2nd biggest in ecommerce in india, amazon being the biggest.


https://theconversation.com/coronav...t-after-20-of-a-population-is-infected-141584

The spread of SARS-CoV-2 has been difficult to predict and understand. On the Diamond Princess cruise ship, for example, where the virus is likely to have spread relatively freely through the air-conditioning system linking cabins, only 20% of passengers and crew were infected. Data from military ships and cities such as Stockholm, New York and London also suggest that infections have been around 20% – much lower than earlier mathematical models suggested.

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https://open.spotify.com/episode/3k6dPFxNYwo2N5Ojl66xTc?si=k1RyYGiIQuuSYXrRkxGrsw

this is an interesting listen

Pimpin said:

Every press will start to write about it. Keep in mind there are other companies that have India exposure that are not talked about, the potential upside for some of them is not priced in IMO. Walmart for example bought Flipkart for 16bn iirc, and on top of it, it got their subsidiary Phone Pe, which handles payments. Flipkart is 2nd biggest in ecommerce in india, amazon being the biggest.


https://theconversation.com/coronav...t-after-20-of-a-population-is-infected-141584



https://open.spotify.com/episode/3k6dPFxNYwo2N5Ojl66xTc?si=k1RyYGiIQuuSYXrRkxGrsw

this is an interesting listen

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Bro tc s chartcast is oe of my favourite Podcasts out there.....
Somtimes a bit to tesla centric but always good quality the one with josh wolf is also pretty damn good..

brehme1989 said:

Papa John's pizza is just better.

It's the only chain that serves something that resembles an actual pizza.

Granted they're not the same everywhere, I've tried these things in over 5 countries, I used to eat pizzas 3-5 times a week and I think I'm qualified to make this assessment
Haven't ordered from a big chain in years, but if I do it's going to be Papa John's. Pizza Hut used to be great in the 90s and early 2000s but is close to sponge junk nowadays. Dominos' texure just drives me off.
Small pizza joints do a much better job. And some small local chains also.

Stock buying is not about how you feel, it's about what the majority does. I'd back Domino's stock if I didn't have the mentality of liking and understanding what the companies I invest in do. I like pizza, but not theirs. It's average at best.

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This is the worst post you've ever made. If we're going with chain pizza, Pizza Hut is king. Dominoes was pretty much the only pizza chain in Iceland; it made for a miserable month.