Mauro Icardi

Why are you all looking only to his goals? A striker can also be important when he scores only 10 goals a season.

i expect more from him than belfodil, not an istant but in year or two i see him like true vice milito scoring easy 15-20 per season...dont know why, i hope it does...
aw yea welcome maurito

Fapuccino said:

You're a complete idiot and every argument you make is a straw man.

First of all, I was making a reference to the penalties, that some strikers' tallies seem higher due to their penalties.

Also, Cavani had about 2 goals in his first season, and 5 goals the next.

Falcao had about 7 goals in debut in ARGENTINA, then 2, then 11.

Icardi is 20 years and had 10 open play goals in his FIRST season in Serie A, and with a team that has 10x less the service of Napoli or Porto and Athletico Madrid.

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Much harder to get big numbers in South America as we play half seasons. Falcao basically had all his goals in a couple games then got injured bad. Both knees(reason Milan and Arsenal passed on him and only Porto gave him a shot) that's why he only had 2 goals the season after that(again not a full season and injured most of it). Why are we comparing Icardi to 2 World Class strikers? People's expectations of this kid are crazy.

browha said:

well, yes, its true that if you perform well, you are more likely to perform well in future.

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Thats exactly his point LOL

Pharaoh said:

Thats exactly his point LOL

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sure, its obvious, but just finding 3 or 4 strikers who scored 5 goals when they were 19/20 means nothing. there are plenty of people who have done that and failed, and infact scored 15-25+ in their first seasons in competitive leagues


means nothing, sadly.

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its fundamentally the same as, say,

"thiago silva made 5 tackles in his first season in serie a. juan jesus made 5 as well, therefore juan jesus is almost definitely going to be as good as thiago silva"

its a completely false argument

Lmao strikers and goals, and defenders and tackles are not in the least comparable. Goals are the striker's main job, the main goal of a defender is to prevent goals, not to tackle.

If you can find stats of a player in his first professional season scoring near 10 goals, and then failing on the second season, please by all means show me.

first professional season? or first season in top flight football?

top flight, but if you can find professional that'd be worthwhile too.

At least 8+ goals though.

Well, its quite hard to find of course.

Stefano Okaka is one exmaple - he played a very few number of games before he went on loan to Serie B, so I wouldnt count that his first season any more thna I would count Icardi's previous season with Sampdoria as his first season of topflight football.

Give me some time and I'll get back to you. Its, sadly, much harder to disprove because by definition if they've failed they are going to be pretty unknown.

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Another example I can find is Mohamed Kallon with 10 goals for Genoa in Serie B.

Nicola ventola comes close, too

I'll keep searching. Basically I have to trawl my knowledge of random footballers who failed for the last 15 years...

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michael bridges failed pretty hardcore despite scoring 19 in the premiership in 99/00.. but information is a bit hazey there so i use him as a tenative suggestion

Alan Smith hit 7 in his first ever prem season from what I can find.

Marcelo Salas scored 1 in 15 for Universidad in 1993, but then hit 41 in 46 after wards. Though of course that depends on your definition of "failed".


How about Roberto Sosa?


Adriano is an obvious one to cite, but they are for different reasons
How about Javier Chevanton. Again, it depends on your definition of failure.

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Mauro Esposito must come at least close to being a failure?


how about Roberto Acquafresca?

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BOOM

Kevin Gallen

QPR player scored 10 goals in his opening season in the premiership.

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how about michael chopra?

I'm really having to trawl my knowledge of football over the last decade to find random failed strikers...

A lot of these players are second division players, so that is different. Immobile scored something like near 30 in Serie B then 4-5 goals in Serie A.

Kevin Gallen made his debut in 1995 no?

Anyhow, if you could provide a table of goals scored that'd be great. But still I see no recent concrete example of a 19-22 year old player scoring near 10 goals in his first season in top flight.

But if Kevin Gallen in 1995 is the only one you could find, I'd think it's a pretty safe bet.

Let me cut it down in more strict terms:

19-22 year old player scoring around 8-10 goals in his first season of top flight (Europe's top 5 leagues) football and then trailing afterwards (no injuries), in relatively recent times.

Fapuccino said:

A lot of these players are second division players, so that is different. Immobile scored something like near 30 in Serie B then 4-5 goals in Serie A.

Kevin Gallen made his debut in 1995 no?

Anyhow, if you could provide a table of goals scored that'd be great. But still I see no recent concrete example of a 19-22 year old player scoring near 10 goals in his first season in top flight.

But if Kevin Gallen in 1995 is the only one you could find, I'd think it's a pretty safe bet.

Let me cut it down in more strict terms:

19-22 year old player scoring around 8-10 goals in his first season of top flight (Europe's top 5 leagues) football and then trailing afterwards (no injuries), in relatively recent times.

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Yeah, I'm trying to angle for that.

It's difficult, though, as you basically have to look at top scorer lists but they dont really record below 13-15 goals. Its also hard to know who was in their first season, and a lot of data can be incomplete. I'll try, but my first dabs in google into it dont give much information.


It's harder to find stats on the failures, than it is the successes sadly (Which is why something like this is pretty skewed)

Honestly, if you look at all top strikers in Europe they all start like this. Higuain, Dzeko, Cavani, Lewandowski, Gomez, etc.. Of course, nothing is foolproof but it seems the chances are very low of a risky transfer.

But again browha his basic point is that if you succeed early in your career your are likely to continue succeeding, so in that sense icardi is not destined but for sure on the right path to further succeed in Serie A

as stated I also strongly believe that Icardi will be a good player. It's just that I wouldnt be using that as the metric.



Bojan is another example.

I know a lot of people say 4 of his goals were against Pescara, and they're shit. But how many players in Serie A scored 4 against pescara? 1 of those goals was completely world class. He also scored 3 against Juventus, who are very organized.

Not only was this his first full professional season, but first in top flight and to get 10 goals, is still pretty impressive. And with a team like Sampdoria without a lot of service nonetheless.

Again, nothing is foolproof but it seems very unlikely he will flop.

Bojan is a decent example, but he's not a centre forward #9. Also, he had Barcelona behind him, Icardi only had Sampdoria, and in a less defensive league.

Pharaoh said:

But again browha his basic point is that if you succeed early in your career your are likely to continue succeeding, so in that sense icardi is not destined but for sure on the right path to further succeed in Serie A

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I understand his point, but what I'm saying is that there are quite some cases of people who start up bright but then fade. Whether it is through attitude, or other, people fail.

Mido is a good example I've just found. Arguably Zarate, too.



My point is that that statistic is inherently biased because we dont have the information of people who have failed (really), without REALLY looking. For every Falcao, Messi, Cavani, you also have a Mido. A Chopra. An Alan Smith (for example).

Zarate had already played in England no? And again he was not a #9.

What is really consolidating about Icardi is that he's not a simple poacher who rely on form a lot. He has a lot of skills like movement, eye for goal, speed, calmness in front of goal. You can lose form but those skills are not something you lose overnight.

Again, of course there is a chance of a risk. But with Icardi is as good as it gets when you're betting on a young striker.

browha said:

My point is that that statistic is inherently biased because we dont have the information of people who have failed (really), without REALLY looking. For every Falcao, Messi, Cavani, you also have a Mido. A Chopra. An Alan Smith (for example).

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This is what I disagree with. I think it's shown that young strikers who perform from year dot almost always succeed.

Also, Mido shouldn't be included in this argument as his first season was at Gent.

for the first time,, Fappuccino had better argument than browha,,

after last season we depend on bunch of veteran striker
this time I really excited how this young lads like icardi and belfodil will end up,,
after a long time, maybe since adriano+martins era,, we didnt give proper chances to young striker to shines,,

03/04 = Martins - Adriano - Cruz - Vieri - Recoba
13/14 = Icardi - Belfodil - Palacio - Milito - ????

http://www.whoscored.com/Regions/10...5667/PlayerStatistics/Italy-Serie-A-2011-2012

There is a systematic way to do this Browha. This is the 2011/12 stats. All you have to do is change the year at the top and look at players who scored 10 or more goals. Plenty of examples of players who scored that many not to be a success (or an Inter level player).

If I were you I'd make the argument that in a team like Samp everything is geared towards you, the forward, scoring. So you get average players having phenomenal seasons with small clubs because everything they do is geared towards that individual scoring (e.g. Pazzini or Gilardino). However once they move to a big club, everyone is good, and play isn't geared around them. As a consequence they struggle.