The Suning Commerce Group

.h. · Nov 14, 2021

Again, the moratti comparisons are off... the fact thatt you buy Recoba 15 years before you sell the club is irrelevant.

On a net asset basis, we're carrying like 200-300m cash right now, we've got decent forward revenues forecast, healthy sponsorships, and a decent player valuation which is probably 400m by itself.

1 billion is overbaked, but with stadium approval, its probably actually not *that* unreasonable (assuming suning take the debts)

CafeCordoba · Nov 14, 2021

Candreva Crosses said:
That's not how it works. With the arguments going around here then Moratti should've sold the club for atleast 10b.

You can sell the club for the price that the market decides and they want to fucking sell which they been trying to do since corona crisis. This is why I'm saying they are fucking us over. We will be in a limbo.

What are you trying to say? That if the market gives you 500m€ they should sell?

Since they own the club, they can demand whatever they want and they are not obliged to sell if someone offers something. Someone needs to offer money which is enough for Zhangs.

And like @.h. suggested, that 1bn probably includes debts, meaning the buyer would buy net debt free club for 1bn. AFAIK there's like 400m€ of debt in the club which is due in 2022. THEN you have Suning's 270m€ loan from Oaktree (which was for Inter) which is due in 2023.

So Zhangs get 1bn and first they pay off those Inter's debts and that Oaktree loan. There is really not that much left after that.

If debts are not wiped off from the club (the 400m€ or something), 1bn demand is obviously outrageous.

Superminion · Nov 14, 2021

.h. said:
Inter's worth more, not less, with Lukaku and Hakimi sold - we overachieved valuation for both of them, reduced substantial cost.

What it's mean in simple English?

CafeCordoba · Nov 14, 2021

Superminion said:
What it's mean in simple English?

It means they had value X in our books but we sold them for more than that value X.

.h. · Nov 14, 2021

CafeCordoba said:
It means they had value X in our books but we sold them for more than that value X.

Exactly.

If you own a house that has market value for 100k, but you sell it for 150k, your net worth has gone from 100k to 150k.

Of course it's not so simple since in principle you'd have to model the cashflow impact and risk of not getting the CL, not winning the league, etc, but actually financially optimal for many clubs is finishing in the top 4, not winning the league (balancing costs ec)

Superminion · Nov 14, 2021

.h. said:
Exactly.

If you own a house that has market value for 100k, but you sell it for 150k, your net worth has gone from 100k to 150k.

Of course it's not so simple since in principle you'd have to model the cashflow impact and risk of not getting the CL, not winning the league, etc, but actually financially optimal for many clubs is finishing in the top 4, not winning the league (balancing costs ec)

Interesting, I thought it's the opposite. The club will worth less with two of it's most important players gone. Sort of like selling a house, a house decorated with precious furniture will worth more than just a house without anything in it (or with less items).

.h. · Nov 14, 2021

Like I said, its complicated

In principle, you'd want to model the risk of not making the CL next year/hitting various bonuses, and work out if the cash generated by the assets offsets that risk.

E.g. if Lukaku was worth 70m, and we got 110m for him, then we've outperformed by 40m. So you need to take the relative change in probability of making the CL without Lukaku, multiply by the bonuses we get and the revenue from that

For example:

If CL revenue is worth 100m to the club, then as long as the chance of us NOT making the CL because of Lukaku isnt increased by 40%, the financial benefit is offset

This is of course simplistic - we're not factoring in wages, etc.

But you see this is also what Man Utd have done in recent years - they dont want to invest to be a top side (Albeit changing more recently), they want to invest enough to be top 4, and keep a very profitable club. I'd guess the level of investment required between likely/challenger to come 1st, vs very likely to finish top 4, is a *huge* difference.

Look at Inter - we made top 4 without Lukaku or Hakimi before they both arrived. It cost us nearly 120mil + 20ish mill a season to win the league, the bonuses we get for winning the league dont off set that. THEN the next step - the only time that would get offset is (say) getting to the CL quarter finals, but again, that means we need to invest in the squad even further...

That's the art of pricing. Risk, cashflow, and what you would accept to give up an asset.

If we can make the CL this season without Lukaku and Hakimi, whilst also getting maybe 50mil plusvalenza against perceived market value, Suning have done a very very good job from the commercial side. Dont get me wrong, we're not likely to compete for the Scudetto - but would any of you spend 160mil+ to potentially compete for a scudettto in this season? I'm not sure. Especially with our debts. Better to bank the money.

You need to view the league as a 'pay for points' situation - the price difference between 1st and 4th is massive I bet, if we calculated it. Obviously you have random chance and fluctuations from season to season, so its all about risk and probability.

.h. · Nov 14, 2021

Superminion said:
Interesting, I thought it's the opposite. The club will worth less with two of it's most important players gone. Sort of like selling a house, a house decorated with precious furniture will worth more than just a house without anything in it (or with less items).

and iin additon to the post above - its not about the house. Its about the owner.

Owner owns a house worth $100k, with $50k of furniture, and $0 in the bank

He sells that furniture for $60k, he's now +$10k.

That's my point. If the 'value' of the house only drops a few $k, then he's still up net net. Of course its more complicated for a business as you have to think about future cashflow, etc. For example, selling that furniture for +$10k but then the rental valuation drops by $2k/yr means within 5 years excluding inflation you've offset the profit you made by selling the furniture - which is fine, if the $60k of cashfllow is then reinvested into something else/pays off debts/etc...
this is why businesses have CFOs

Capo · Nov 15, 2021

Are the rumours legit, or just talk? Has anyone credible even come out and linked PIF to Inter?

And to the comments above, that is a big deal. 1 bil with no debts that leaves the club in amazing position if sold. it's a free hit to buy anyone and everyone!

Conan the Barbarian · Nov 15, 2021

kurt0411 said:
Call me optimistic but I really believe there is something with PIF. I just don’t think Barella who could pick to play for any club in the world would renew, now you could say it’s cos he’s Italian but then what about Lautaro who’s agent touted his exit for years suddenly renews? And Bastoni earlier in the year as well, I just don’t think they would have if they knew things aren’t gonna change soon.

Even securing someone like Onana who has been courted by Barcelona and Arsenal would join. And the names we’re being linked to again, albeit just rumors, but the likes of Rudiger, Gosens , Adeyemi and Raspadori ( who may not be rated as highly by some of you but still costs like 30-40 mill) is making me believe

Good point!

I almost think the same.

or maybe the Zhangs have a different agenda what we don't know yet.

CafeCordoba · Nov 15, 2021

Excellent points by @.h. regarding the money coming in and going out.

What I disagree with is we are definitely likely to compete for the Scudetto this season. Despite the current gap to the top, our squad is still probably the best in Serie A. And it knows what it takes to win.

But indeed, for the club the most important thing is to get to top 4 and preferably to CL knockouts too. That's the best combination without having to invest big time for the title challenge. In long term title challenge will be profitable as getting the title will give us pot 1 in CL draws which maximizes the odds for CL knockouts the next year (because we're not at pot 2 in coefficients).

.h. · Nov 15, 2021

Capo said:
Are the rumours legit, or just talk? Has anyone credible even come out and linked PIF to Inter?

And to the comments above, that is a big deal. 1 bil with no debts that leaves the club in amazing position if sold. it's a free hit to buy anyone and everyone!

It's bullshit I very much doubt PIF will be interested right now. I could see it in a year or two maybe, but right now the focus should really be on sorting out Newcastle. Ultimately things like the prize money is so much higher in the premiership than Serie A.

CafeCordoba · Nov 15, 2021

Dal Pino just said that if Staveley preferred to invest to Newcastle over Inter she clearly likes small cars instead of Formula 1.

:awyeah:

brehme1989 · Nov 15, 2021

CafeCordoba said:
Dal Pino just said that if Staveley preferred to invest to Newcastle over Inter she clearly likes small cars instead of Formula 1.

Candreva Crosses · Nov 15, 2021

CafeCordoba said:
What are you trying to say? That if the market gives you 500m€ they should sell?

Since they own the club, they can demand whatever they want and they are not obliged to sell if someone offers something. Someone needs to offer money which is enough for Zhangs.

And like @.h. suggested, that 1bn probably includes debts, meaning the buyer would buy net debt free club for 1bn. AFAIK there's like 400m€ of debt in the club which is due in 2022. THEN you have Suning's 270m€ loan from Oaktree (which was for Inter) which is due in 2023.

So Zhangs get 1bn and first they pay off those Inter's debts and that Oaktree loan. There is really not that much left after that.

If debts are not wiped off from the club (the 400m€ or something), 1bn demand is obviously outrageous.

The whole discussion was about them fucking us over.

They want to sell the club but refuse when there is people bidding. They take loans and sell the players because they don't afford to keep Inter anymore. They put us fans in a limbo and make us watch Inter deteriorate. HOW is this not fucking us over? I don't give a shit about their money, the discussion was about them fucking us over.

Candreva Crosses · Nov 15, 2021

CafeCordoba said:
Dal Pino just said that if Staveley preferred to invest to Newcastle over Inter she clearly likes small cars instead of Formula 1.

Yeah, who wants to drive a Formula 1 car and win shit in a league like Serie A when you can drive a small car and win 1b no matter where in the league you get :palm:

Strale · Nov 15, 2021

If this is 'us' or them situation, why should fans care how much will owners make by selling? They are fucked and there needs to be pressure on them to sell, no matter what it costs them imo

They certainly brought more joy to Inter fans than I dared to dream, but it's not like Inter fans want them out on a whim. They are risking the future of the club. I hope they manage, but it's safer for Inter if they sell.

Candreva Crosses · Nov 15, 2021

Strale said:
If this is 'us' or them situation, why should fans care how much will owners make by selling? They are fucked and there needs to be pressure on them to sell, no matter what it costs them imo

They certainly brought more joy to Inter fans than I dared to dream, but it's not like Inter fans want them out on a whim. They are risking the future of the club. I hope they manage, but it's safer for Inter if they sell.

That's what I've been trying to say :lol:

But then they go on the logic of their demands because of the money they've spent with no regards of US the fans. :palm:

sdvroot · Nov 15, 2021

Sportpaper.it has received important information regarding the possible and imminent change of ownership of Inter Milan. Zhang is ready to step back and keep only a minority stake.
The Oaktree fund has been removed, confirming with this an imminent change of ownership. Rumors await confirmation, but apparently something is coming.
The Arabs are coming in the form of PIF. 51% of the club will go to the Public Foundation, which, despite having denied the sale in recent weeks, will be one step away from acquiring the club. The satellite company also has to join the Foundation to create a completely new Inter.
A drastic change, which will also affect the current sponsors, when Volvo will cede its place to Mercedes.
The situation is changing, the end of November will be full of news.
[Fabio Corona]

Strale · Nov 15, 2021

Yeah, the posts above about their financial situation were very generous for the likes of me, who don't know but wish to understand.

But the underlying problem remains. If it's Inter or them, and it seems it is, then what are you going to do....it's not like anonymous internet fans caused their troubles

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