Form since Juventus

[.h.]

After the Juventus game, which was match week 11, we were on 27 points, 1 behind Juventus. What's happened since then?


Rivals

Since the Juventus match, leading up to the final whistle of the Catania match today, we're now at 47 points. That means we've made 20 points in the mean time - in 16 matches. To compare to our rivals in that time, Napoli had 23 points, Fiorentina 21, Lazio 19, Roma 17, Catania 15, Milan 14. [Note: All information taken from http://www.worldfootball.net/spielplan/ita-serie-a-2012-2013-spieltag/11/ ]


Since then, Napoli have gone up to 23 - 30 points gained, Fiorentina 45 - 24 points gained, Milan 48 - 34 points gained, Roma 40 - 23 points gained, Lazio 47 - 28 points gained. Catania, despite their loss today, have gained 28 points as well.

As you can see, even after today's win, we are seriously lagging the competition. That is the reason for our propelling from 2nd to 6th.

If we work this out as a points per game ratio.....

Team.....Points per game
Inter 1.25
Napoli 1.875
Fiorentina 1.5
Milan 2.125
Roma 1.4375
Lazio 1.75
Catania 1.75
​

If we take this, extrapolate it over the remaining 11 serie A games, this will give us some points projections

Inter = 47+11*1.25 = 60.75
Napoli = 53 + 11*1.875 = 73.625
Fiorentina = 45 + 1.5*11 = 61.5
Milan = 48 + 11*2.125 = 71.375
Roma = 40+12*1.4375 = 57.25
Lazio = 47+11*1.75 = 66.25
Catania = 42+11*1.75 = 61.25


Under these projections, we finish under Juventus, Napoli (73-74), Milan (71-72), Lazio (66), Fiorentina(61-62), Catania (61). This puts us 7th in the league - which I believe is firmly out of Europe

Of course this average will also be skewed by our win against Catania just now - hopefully its the start of another winning streak, but if it isnt, expect our average to only go downhill from 1.25


If we go one step further and look who we're playing in the next few weeks

Inter v Bologna (we beat them 3-1 earlier this season, lets assume another win)
Sampdoria v Inter - We beat them earlier this season but I think things are very different now. I expect a loss here.
Inter v Juventus - well, its always hard to call a Derby, I personally think we'll win but being realistic lets project a draw.
Inter v Atalanta - we lost to them earlier this season, and with Livaja, they only look stronger. I expect a loss.
Cagliari v Inter - we drew with them 2-2 earlier this season, I can foresee another draw.
Inter v Parma - we lost to them 1-0 earlier, but I anticipate a draw here
Palermo v Inter - well, I'll be fucked if we cant beat Palermo. At the same time, our record with the bottom teams is atrocious. We beat them earlier this season, hoping for another win.
Napoli v Inter - Sorry, but I only see this going one way. Inter loss.
Inter v Lazio - Return of the Rocchi? Its hard to call, with Klose out. I would expect a draw, though
Genoa v Inter - Genoa are looking much better of late, but I think we'll have this.
Inter v Udinese - our season closer, they thrashed us 3-0 in Jan, and I expect us to lose this one.

Points : 3+0+1+0+1+1+3+0+1+3+0 = 12 points, which is only 1 under what I projected above.




Make your predictions, kids!




Full Serie A fixture list:

Matchweek

Inter

Points

Juventus

Points

Napoli

Points

Milan

Points

Fiorentina

Points

Roma

Points

Catania

Points

Lazio

Points

28

Bologna

0

Catania

3

Chievo

0

Genoa

3

Lazio

3

Udinese

1

Juventus

0

Fiorentia

0

29

Sampdoria

Bologna

3

Atalanta

3

Palermo

3

Genoa

3

Parma

3

Udinese

3

Torino

0

30

Juventus

Inter

Torino

Chievo

Cagliari

Palermo

Lazio

Catania

31

Atalanta

Pescara

Genoa

Fiorentina

Milan

Lazio

Cagliari

Roma

32

Cagliari

Lazio

Milan

Napoli

Atalanta

Torino

Chievo

Juventus

33

Parma

Milan

Cagliari

Juventus

Torino

Pescara

Palermo

Udinese

34

Palermo

Torino

Pescara

Catania

Sampdoria

Siena

Milan

Parma

35

Napoli

Palermo

Inter

Torino

Roma

Fiorentina

Siena

Bologna

36

Lazio

Atalanta

Bologna

Pescara

Siena

Chievo

Sampdoria

Inter

37

Genoa

Cagliari

Siena

Roma

Palermo

Milan

Pescara

Sampdoria

38

Udinese

Sampdoria

Roma

Siena

Pescara

Napoli

Torino

Cagliari

Totals

47+

59+

53+

48+

45+

43+

42+

47+

[/b]

 

[mrbob]

Atlanta is 15th on the table and you predict us to lose a home match?

You are a great poster browha, but sometimes your pessimistic level is irritating

 

[.h.]

I think Atalanta are much improved of late. Their 2 goals from Livaja against Roma are a bit of a hint to that, they beat Siena who beat us 2-0 today, they scored 2 against roma..

I dont EXPECT us to lose the match, but...


1 - given the games we have lost this year (highlights including Siena, a draw to Torino, losing to Parma, and dont forget Already losing to Atalanta!) would you be so surprised?

2 - As mentioned, we've already lost to them once this season.

 

[Bluenine]

4pm:

Inter v Atalanta - I expect a loss.

6pm:

I dont EXPECT us to lose the match, but...

You are getting less pessimistic with every post... I call it the "Catania effect"

Since we are projecting based on past results on this thread, let me project your future views:

8pm:

I expect a draw, but...

10pm:

Maybe we could win that game?

12pm:

I expect us to win, we are at home, why not?

Dude, get there faster! We are all waiting for you here, out of the dark side

 

[.h.]

What I mean is:

In a normal world, that is not a game I would expect us to lose.

However, in our current form and situation, it would not even remotely surprise me if we lost it. Coupled with the fact that we've already lost to Atalanta this season, and some other very poor clubs, I think it would be ridiculous to expect every one of our remaining games to go "as you might hope" - there are going to be some unexpected wins and unexpected losses in there. I think Atalanta is a real danger game for us.

 

[king_elnino]

Nice post with great statistic...

But we all know statistic is a lie that we all agree...

 

[Bluenine]

Looking at the remaining 11 games, I expect Inter to get 18-22 points, you are perhaps being too pessimistic with 12.

You are only looking at our form since the Juve match. A lot has changed in the last few games - we have new players, we have a new formation, and we are starting to wake up in a post-Milito world.

If you look at the last 4 games, we got 7 points. That's 1.75 points per game. Extrapolating that over the last 11 games gives us a better indicate - 19.25 points.

 

[rockball]

I'd like to finish 3rd, or 7th. Don't want any of the in-between spots.

- - - Updated - - -

Inter v Bologna -- win
Sampdoria v Inter -- win
Inter v Juventus -- loss
Inter v Atalanta -- draw
Cagliari v Inter -- win
Inter v Parma -- draw
Palermo v Inter -- win
Napoli v Inter -- draw
Inter v Lazio -- loss
Genoa v Inter -- win
Inter v Udinese -- win

These are my predictions. Don't ask for my reasoning here, mostly a hunch. As per this, we will get 21 points (6W, 3D, 2L)

That takes us to 47+21 = 68 points which is 4th place as per browha's projection of other teams :fu:

 

[.h.]

shee-it. and i would say that's "reasonably" generous too - the win vs Udinese, at least, I certainly wouldnt take for granted.

Interesting nonetheless, at least this way people can make the predictions they want.



Full Serie A fixture list:

Matchweek

Inter

Points

Juventus

Points

Napoli

Points

Milan

Points

Fiorentina

Points

Roma

Points

Catania

Points

Lazio

Points

28

Bologna

Catania

Chievo

Genoa

Lazio

Udinese

Juventus

Fiorentia

29

Sampdoria

Bologna

Atalanta

Palermo

Genoa

Parma

Udinese

Torino

30

Juventus

Inter

Torino

Chievo

Cagliari

Palermo

Lazio

Catania

31

Atalanta

Pescara

Genoa

Fiorentina

Milan

Lazio

Cagliari

Roma

32

Cagliari

Lazio

Milan

Napoli

Atalanta

Torino

Chievo

Juventus

33

Parma

Milan

Cagliari

Juventus

Torino

Pescara

Palermo

Udinese

34

Palermo

Torino

Pescara

Catania

Sampdoria

Siena

Milan

Parma

35

Napoli

Palermo

Inter

Torino

Roma

Fiorentina

Siena

Bologna

36

Lazio

Atalanta

Bologna

Pescara

Siena

Chievo

Sampdoria

Inter

37

Genoa

Cagliari

Siena

Roma

Palermo

Milan

Pescara

Sampdoria

38

Udinese

Sampdoria

Roma

Siena

Pescara

Napoli

Torino

Cagliari

Totals

47+

59+

53+

48+

45+

43+

42+

47+

[/b]

 

[rockball]

I took 3 pts against Udinese considering its the last match and we'll go all out to get it anyhow. And that does work sometimes for us. I can say I haven't been very optimistic or pessimistic in the forecast, but more based on how we usually fare in such matches.

 

[.h.]

You are welcome to predict as you see fit

- - - Updated - - -

Its kinda depressing to think we're 12 points off the top, considering where we were.

Had we beaten Atalanta, Parma, Siena, and say Lazio, we'd be top of the table.

That's ignoring points dropped to Cagliari, Genoa, Udinese, Roma, Torino, Fiorentina, Milan in the meantime too - where perhaps we would feel we should have gotten points against some of those teams.

 

[Eduardo]

What were your realistic expectations before the season started? That’s the question I would ask everyone and only then you can truly evaluate how this current team is doing and whether they have lived up to what was expected of them.

It’s still hard to evaluate this season until it’s finished, but at the moment we are still in the hunt for CL spots in Serie A; in the semi-final of the Coppa Italia and still in good position to possibly get to the final and in the Last16 of the Europa League against a tough opponent in Tottenham. All this with a rookie coach in Strama, who has never really had a chance of coaching professionals and is forced to learn on the spot, and it has to be said also – not so attractive or even hopeless/clueless football at times. That’s what we have at the moment and only god knows what will be the situation in terms of standings and Coppa/EL performances at the end of the season, but one things for sure I guess is that the way we play will definitely not solve itself just like that.

I don’t know about the rest of you fellow supporters, but I never viewed this team as a title contender this season and making the CL IMO would already be an accomplishment for Strama and this team, everything else I consider like a bonus in this case if we somehow manage to win the Coppa or even get further in the EL. I’m just being realistic here and sometimes get the impression, maybe a false one, that some fans are still living in the glory days and think we can compete for all competitions we play in, which unfortunately I think is no longer the case. Yes, we are maybe paying the price for not rebuilding the team carefully and gradually with a plan after the historic treble season, but at Inter the word “PLAN” probably doesn’t exist that much or is rarely used. A complete overhaul and rebuilding cycle will definitely not happen in one season, so being patient and staying realistic with the goals and objectives moving further should be emphasized.

What has disappointed me thus far, like many others I guess, is not the results themselves, but the actual performances that we are showing in those results. In the league we are 11 games away from the season ending and we still haven’t seen any consistency of stable and solid performances even against mediocre or bottom table teams. Of course there have been sings of better play as well, the Juventus game or the most recent Catania second half performance, but at this stage one would expect such performances for the full 90 minutes and not only the last 30-45min.

Now talking about the situation in Serie A, I would say that everything is in Inter’s hands and it will be interesting watching how this race for the CL spots will unfold with so many teams close to one another in the standings. I would suggest to also include Udinese into that mix of teams still challenging for the CL spots, yes they are 8 points off of 3rd place right now, but nothing is impossible. Another suggestion, make the teams challenging for the CL spots BOLD which have to face each other still, then you have a clearer picture really of who has the toughest schedule.

I think eventually teams like Catania and Udinese, unless they go on a good winning streak, will probably fall out from this list meanwhile I still fully expect Juve to win the league, unless a total collapse which I don't see happening and thus leaving 6 teams for 2 CL spots.
Napoli have had a tough stretch of games as of late and that shows in their 4 in a row draws, but I just have a feeling that they are to reliant on their star men like Cavani and Hamsik to consistently perform which will ultimately lead them to getting some more unexpected draws/losses.
Lazio probably has the toughest schedule on paper, plus also playing in the EL which doesn’t make life easier for them.
Milan will also have a stretch of difficult games as we can see in the table, against potential direct rivals, while at the same time MAYBE still participating in the CL if they get past Barca.
Roma, even though playing better as off late, are still a rollercoaster team and nothing is certain with them, but ruling them out now is definitely out of the question.
Fiorentina is really the dark horse sort of here, I would say they actually have the easiest schedule on paper and if they keep their performances up they are definitely the team to watch out.
For Inter the main thing I think will be how we perform against the “Lesser” teams rather then the direct rivals at this point. We have already wasted many opportunities to sort of make ground this season against other smaller teams and it definitely wouldn’t surprise me if we slip up against some of the listed teams in our remaining schedule. Even though every game is different and many factors can influence the outcomes of matches, my more or less realistic prediction for our remaining games would be:

Bologna (WIN) – Hard to really judge Bologna, but hopefully the momentum from the Catania game will carry us to a win. Also last season someone? The 3-0 that they beat us at home? Someone should remind the team about this if further motivation is needed.

Sampdoria (LOSS) – They haven’t lost in their last 6 matches, 4 in a row wins at home also. Tough game, something similar like the Catania one. Also will be a good opportunity to evaluate some potential summer transfer targets, Icardi and Obiang, but other than that, maybe for some unexpected, but I think a loss is on the cards in this one.

JUVENTUS (DRAW) – A derby is always almost 50/50, even form sometimes doesn’t matter in these matches so a draw is more or less down the middle in this case. These matches are definitely not for predicting so don’t be surprised with a win or a loss also in this one.

Atalanta (WIN) – They already beat us this season at home, but away they haven’t performed that well really. We looked the much better team when we were trailing against them and I expect payback for us in this one.

Cagliari (DRAW) - Really undecided about this one, we had a 2-2 draw against them, but really looked bad in that game from what I remember and were saved by an own goal. They have Fiore and Catania before us, so hopefully we catch them on a bad stretch of results.

Parma (DRAW) – Another tricky encounter here. Even though not as solid away, but Parma are no pushovers. Really everything will come down to how we play more or less. If we take the game to Parma then yes I can see a possible win. Statistics actually favor Inter here, we have won the last 6 home games against them, the last two being 5-2 and 5-0. At this point I would take a 1-0 even, but for some reason I see this game being one of those we are fully expected to win, but fail to do so.

Palermo (WIN) – They have a quite tough schedule until we meet them, so more or less the relegation picture will probably be clearer with regards to Palermo. Other than that, this has to be a win, no excuses against one of the worst teams this season.

NAPOLI (LOSS) – It’s been a long time since we have won an away league game at Naples, so don’t expect much changing in this one. Starting from here probably will be the deciding stretch for us.

LAZIO (WIN) – Like I wrote, I think the amount of direct rivals + EL opposition that they will face will catch up with them. Also, the last 10 home league games against Lazio? 7-3-0, the last 7 all wins. Only statistics, but hard to argue against them so expect us to make it 8 in a row wins.

Genoa (DRAW) – They have a stretch of games against other potential relegation contenders, so very hard to judge how this might look come match day. They were unbeaten in 5 previous games, before the most recent loss to Roma, so there are definite improvements there. Inter has won the last 4 away games against Genoa though, but very difficult to predict at this moment how this match might look.

UDINESE (DRAW) – Actually undecided about this one. Their schedule is actually almost as easy if not easier than Fiorentina’s. You can’t totally rule them out as potential players for those 2 remaining CL spots, plus they gave us a good beating at home. Udinese is always a tough game for us, regardless whether it’s home or away, so potentially a very tight match. They have players that can make the difference in these games so counting Udine out is definitely a mistake.

So I have 4W-5D-2L = 17pts for the remaining games.

Very hard to evaluate all of these fixtures, but I tried to be realistic and also take into consideration our habit of showing clueless performances at times as well when predicting the outcome of these matches. In my predictions I have 5 draws, while up until now we have had only 5 draws this whole season in the league and that just indicates how unpredictable Inter themselves is, we can beat probably anyone in the league but at the same time lose to the worst teams in the league as well. Eventually I think it will come down between Napoli/Milan/Inter for the remaining 2 CL spots and hopefully we will be one of them.

 

[Fitzy]

I've just realised that we've only got 11 games left... :fu:

 

[Kakaroto]

We'll go on another 10 game win streak and get 2nd place. Lets go.

 

[.h.]

Full Serie A fixture list:

Matchweek

Inter

Points

Juventus

Points

Napoli

Points

Milan

Points

Fiorentina

Points

Roma

Points

Catania

Points

Lazio

Points

28

Bologna

Catania

Chievo

Genoa

3

Lazio

Udinese

1

Juventus

Fiorentia

29

Sampdoria

Bologna

Atalanta

Palermo

Genoa

Parma

Udinese

Torino

30

Juventus

Inter

Torino

Chievo

Cagliari

Palermo

Lazio

Catania

31

Atalanta

Pescara

Genoa

Fiorentina

Milan

Lazio

Cagliari

Roma

32

Cagliari

Lazio

Milan

Napoli

Atalanta

Torino

Chievo

Juventus

33

Parma

Milan

Cagliari

Juventus

Torino

Pescara

Palermo

Udinese

34

Palermo

Torino

Pescara

Catania

Sampdoria

Siena

Milan

Parma

35

Napoli

Palermo

Inter

Torino

Roma

Fiorentina

Siena

Bologna

36

Lazio

Atalanta

Bologna

Pescara

Siena

Chievo

Sampdoria

Inter

37

Genoa

Cagliari

Siena

Roma

Palermo

Milan

Pescara

Sampdoria

38

Udinese

Sampdoria

Roma

Siena

Pescara

Napoli

Torino

Cagliari

Totals

47+

59+

53+

48+3

45+

43+1

42+

47+

[/b]

.

- - - Updated - - -

updated for the latest serie a results

 

[mrbob]

Even the most pessimist member this season predict we will win against Bologna.

looks like we are in the deeper shit than your prediction Browha

 

[.h.]

Lols. For three months ive said two things:
1 - relegation form
2 - no europe

 

[Kenny]

Based on form, we are NOT in relegation zone, i repeat, we are NOT in relegation zone.

 

[.h.]

last time i crunched the numbers, which was before fiorentina, we were like 16th in the table if you looked at points since the Juventus match. We might not be inside the bottom 3, but we're within bottom 5.

 

[KevinB]

The way we play is relegation form.