i think the worst is over for emerging markets.. EU is still fucked
Some really ugly data out of china seems to disagree with that take...
Dont see EM getting out of the slump without china..
Also i wonder wether easing now with inflationary pressure pretty high is a smart thing.... Especially when all your trade partners are tightening...
Then again if Xi really goes for that 3rd term then he ll do everything to keep up the appearance of a working Economy.
Maybe being a bit less harsh on covid would be a better solution than just easing?
EDIT: Crude below 90$ brent still at 93 but also down 4% honestly was expecting for it to hold that 90 more steady...
Still gonna stay on the long side till winter starts unless we ll see some clear signs of a big recessionary shock in the short term. I just dont believe that we re gonna be cold in the winter, sounds fucken arrogant but to many votes will be lost if europeans and north americans have to go cold in winter. As in i fully expect generators to be turned on and politicians having a more favourable stance towards oil when shit hits the fan. I d be shocked if we go cold cause of Moral or environmental issues... We ve repeatedly seen that we rather have coal plants back up and running than have clean or expensive energy.
Don t see why this time it should be different or why it should be different with oil.
Even when facing a war I expect the majority of the west to rather spend more on energy than being a bit cold in winter or putting on an extra layer.
Than again that might just be me and european and North american Politicians have made some astonishingly stupid energy decisions so we might very well see this trend continue, which might go both ways on oil,.