Mercato Team (Ausilio, Marotta, & Co.) and Strategies

Harpsabu

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Marotta has a losers mentality. Even if we are a transitional league, you don’t start going on about we have to accept that every best player will leave. Of course it’s probably true but for someone who maybe has political ambitions in FIGC, you don’t go around saying it and admitting defeat in public.
But he's right. All the best players do leave, we see it every summer. Theres already rumours of Napolis best players leaving. Kim has a 50m release clause because he wanted to use this as a stepping soon. Being annoyed for marotta for saying it is irrational because he's correct.

We won the league and our two best players left. We will have to sell again because we are broke. Milan are struggling to keep Leao. Thinking anything else is delusional
 

RickyMaravilla'sRightFoot

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But he's right. All the best players do leave, we see it every summer. Theres already rumours of Napolis best players leaving. Kim has a 50m release clause because he wanted to use this as a stepping soon. Being annoyed for marotta for saying it is irrational because he's correct.

We won the league and our two best players left. We will have to sell again because we are broke. Milan are struggling to keep Leao. Thinking anything else is delusional
No one is thinking anything else; of course it’s true. We all know. Marotta is just being a little bitch with an unwillingness to come up with ideas and admit his mistakes.
 

Il Drago

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But he's right. All the best players do leave, we see it every summer. Theres already rumours of Napolis best players leaving. Kim has a 50m release clause because he wanted to use this as a stepping soon. Being annoyed for marotta for saying it is irrational because he's correct.

We won the league and our two best players left. We will have to sell again because we are broke. Milan are struggling to keep Leao. Thinking anything else is delusional

Even Juve couldn't keep De Ligt in the league
 

CafeCordoba

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No one is thinking anything else; of course it’s true. We all know. Marotta is just being a little bitch with an unwillingness to come up with ideas and admit his mistakes.
What? Is it Marotta's job to do FIGC / Serie A directors' work?

No, it is not. Marotta has been the director in the teams and while teams, specially Juve and Inter have power, they are not in a position to change the way Serie A has done business in the last 20 years when they've really lost their spot as the top, top league.
 

brehme1989

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This is from Calcio e Finanza. Typically accurate but they tend to downplay some of the figures at times until they read the correct ones from our books.

Schermata-2022-09-06-alle-18.08.53.png




Amortization costs of ~85m this season.
I worry that we'll see Lukaku return with a similar figure which would be detrimental for our season, unless he somehow gets serious and becomes helpful, which is still not enough.
De Vrij will either stay with the same cost base or leave. Amortization wise it won't matter a lot. -1.5m or -500k.
Skriniar's will leave. -5m
Assuming Bastoni renews, he'll have a slightly reduced amortization cost. Let's say -1m.
Dalbert will finally leave. -5m.
Gagliardini will leave. -5m
Correa won't depart easily, so I guess we're stuck with his hefty cost.
Sensi may be sold. I'll imagine he gets sold so -7m, which is probably what we'll fetch from him from a team like Fiorentina, Monza or Udinese.
No idea on Lazaro, best case scenario Torino exercises the option. Either way, I'm assuming he leaves, so -4m.
Bellanova may not be redeemed but even if he does, his amortization cost would drop to slightly over 1m per year (7m transfer, 4 year deal), so let's say -2m to keep it simple.


So in this scenario, we would drop from 85m to 57m, including signing Acerbi for 4m (2 year deal).

Assuming De Vrij, Skriniar, Handanovic, Cordaz, Gagliardini, Dalbert, Sensi and Lazaro leave, with room for a Gosens sale and also assuming that Radu and Vanheusden will be loaned out again, that drops our 126m salary spending to ~100m.
Giving us a total cost of let's say 160m but missing at least 4 roster spots. Two starting central defenders, a backup GK and a backup central midfielder.
If Dzeko also leaves, that drops our total cost to 150m but we'll then need another starting forward.
I'm expecting Dumfries to be sold. If Lautaro or Barella are sold Curva Nord will have Marotta's head after losing Skriniar. A Dumfries and Gosens sale, along with Ausilio plusvalenza magic, would cover our capital gains needs. But we'd need a starting right wing back.
Costs now drop to 145m.

It pretty much becomes imperative to get rid of Joaquin Correa. And it wouldn't be prudent to renew Lukaku's deal, no matter what under-the-table deal we may have with Chelsea. That's 35m per year total cost and we have several options.


By figuring out a way to get rid of Correa (~16m to avoid capital losses) and not extending Lukaku, we go to 110m total costs, and we have room to raise it to ~170m.

Needs in this scenario:
Backup GK x2. Options are Sportiello, Sirigu, Bardi (Club trained?), Leali from Italians. Others are Soria, Vaclik, Karius (Diletta approved), Begovic... Not very relevant unless Onana becomes very shaky and we need someone reliable there. I like Sepe, Skorupski and Dragowski from potentially cheap Serie A candidates.

Right wing back. Idea Cancelo on loan once again to complete the cycle, but way too complicated now. Possible free agents are Bellerin, Coufal, Sergi Roberto, Aurier, Nelson Semedo, Adama Traore.. not a fan of most of these options. At best, we loan someone like Mouzraoui or try and poach Lazzari.

Backup left wing back. Bensebaini (long time Inter target, but would be better off as Bastoni's backup), Grimaldo or Jonas Hector as potential free agent targets that would be willing to be rotation guys at best and wouldn't cost a fortune. I'd welcome Biraghi back honestly, also fills the club trained quotas.

Center back x2. Freebies are Yerry Mina and Ndicka since Soyuncu is moving to Atletico... and our favorites. Smalling, Murillo and Juan Jesus. Unfortunately we're going to need transfers here and I expect us to go again for Milenkovic to replace Skriniar and Acerbi will end up sticking as the main guy in the middle unless we can also get Becao.

Rotational central midfielder. Reason this isn't a backup player is because after Barella, Brozovic and Hakan our next guys are a raw Asllani and an ageing Mkhitaryan. We need a 4th midfielder here to relegate the Armenian. Bosman targets could be any of Tielemans, Gundogan, Ceballos, Pereyra... watch us go for Sturaro, though.

Forwards x2. Roberto Firmino and Marcus Thuram, please. Other options aren't as good. We drop to the likes of Vietto, Mariano Diaz etc and we can't really afford to go for transfer for such players.

Backup Striker. I'd go for Andrea Belotti here who's having a very off season, so I imagine he'd be a cheap pick up for top teams that need depth. Other option is someone like Beto from Udinese but he won't be cheap.


So let's say we get Sportiello (3m gross) and Bardi (1m gross) to fill the GK spots that Handanovic and Cordaz occupied. Sportiello is good enough to start half the games so he'll be good competition for Onana as well.

I guess Bellerin would be our #1 free transfer for the RWB spot. He's fast and not overage but that's about it. And that's usually enough for this position. Assuming a 5m gross cost (3.5m net plus growth decree) would cut it,

Bensebaini would warrant a little over 2.5m net, so let's say 4m gross. Don't think Grimaldo is an option and Hector is rather old.

I'm guessing Roberto Pereyra would be our target as Gundogan would want to start somewhere and may move to Turkey, Tielemans would have other suitors and Ceballos has a roster spot at Real Madrid so it's hard to convince him without a starting spot. Pereyra makes 1m so I guess we'll almost double it. Let's say 3.5m gross.

Firmino makes 5.5m net at Liverpool. Give him 6m and a starting spot next to Lautaro and he's probably coming here. Don't see much competition for him from outside Italy. It would be between us, Juventus and perhaps Milan who will lowball him. Only X factor is Barcelona who make weird choices and Atletico Madrid is another option but not sure if they have the roster spots for him.

Marcus Thuram has interest from Bayern that cooled down and there are some PL clubs after him. We'll see if Man Utd goes for him. There's also PSG who have a transfer fetish for forwards but no room for him. Give him anything over 4.5m net (triple his current deal) and we're in the conversation.

Belotti makes less than 3m at Roma, give him a 2 year deal at 3m if Dzeko leaves and we're good, provided that we secure at least one of the two forwards mentioned above. Otherwise we'd need someone more reliable and probably a guaranteed starter. Which would cost more.


That pretty much builds the entire team minus the two starting CBs with free agents, but it's difficult to pull off. Funnily enough, all this would cost a little over 35m. Which is what we regain from letting Lukaku go back to Chelsea and not having Correa affect our books (ie loan at book value without paying his salary or sell without losses).

This takes us to 145m squad cost for the year. And we have, let's say, another 25m.

Milenkovic could cost 25m or maybe 30m. Being greedy, I could consider a 35m bid with 16m Correa going the other way... Either way, the effect of Milenkovic on the books would be at most 7m amortization cost and his salary wouldn't be higher than 6m gross. Which means 13m cost for our books.
Assuming Becao would cost slightly less, we can get to the ~170m cost (make it 180m with the possible extensions of Bastoni and Hakan), which is a significant drop from the 220m cost of this season and still, in my view, have a competitive squad that could reach the CL KO round and definitely maintain a top 4 position in Serie A, and why not even challenge for the Scudetto, unless Napoli doesn't stop their frenzy run.

The defensive setup would need to tick of course, but Milenkovic is actually more than decent at RCB and his shortcomings from a two man defense are hidden, whilst Becao is at worse an okay CB.


---------------------------------------Onana

-------------Milenkovic---------------Becao----------------Bastoni

Bellerin---------------------------------------------------------------------Dimarco

-------------------Barella------------Brozovic----------Hakan

------------------Lautaro-----------------------Firmino

Bench:
Sportiello (GK)
Bardi (GK)
Darmian (WBR, WBL, RCB)
D'Ambrosio (RCB, WBR)
Acerbi (CB)
Bensebaini (LCB, WBL)
Pereyra (MC)
Mkhitaryan (MC)
Asllani (MC)
Thuram (ST)
Belotti (ST)
roster fillers, 3 youth players that can play CB, MC and ST respectively.


Just note that if Lukaku or Correa stays, half of this isn't even possible...

So under the circumstances with our ownership situation, this is one of the best case scenarios. Not too bad on paper, but definitely a downgrade in defense but offensively, in terms of depth, it's an upgrade and perhaps a platform to build on. For the new owners I hope.
 
Last edited:

CafeCordoba

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Great go-through.

I give some comments on some topics in the post.

Correa is of course the biggest issue we need to deal with. If he could accept EPL, we could ditch him there for good. Otherwise, it's probably a loan and we pay part of that humongous salary. Ie. we need to eat his amortization cost (minus some small loan fee) and also part of his salary.

And then indeed, Lukaku needs to be forgotten. I COULD accept Lukaku if he took a massive paycut and play with like 4m€ net salary (and the loan fee being like 4m) and be a bench player. But then again we wouldn't get the best out of him because he needs to be THE guy in the team. And that will hinder Lautaro because he's the captain now and while he's not your bonafide scorer, he can be a great in a one-two punch.

So just forget him but the rumors aren't convincing in this respect. It's a bit confusing because to make it happen, we would need to hope him to suck for the rest of the season but on the other hand we need his contribution also. :lol:

There are few names which are pretty disgusting like Bellerin and Belotti ( :D ) but it is what it is. Beggars can't be choosers. Zhangs need to go first before anything long-term positive things can happen.
 

Harpsabu

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Hasn't bellerin already signed for sporting next season? Also I think klopp wants to keep firmino.
 

brehme1989

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Hasn't bellerin already signed for sporting next season? Also I think klopp wants to keep firmino.
That's not really a mercato plan, don't really know or care about Bellerin's status :D Mostly indicative of how we could advance from now on.
I'd rather get Mouzraoui in a loan+ deal.

But as far as Firmino is concerned, Klopp didn't want to lose him in the winter for sure. The player isn't really happy with his current role. He'll test the free market and may stay eventually, but it's very likely that he leaves. Spain has more chances of getting him but we can offer him a great salary and a starting spot with CL football, so I'd give it a go.
 

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This is from Calcio e Finanza. Typically accurate but they tend to downplay some of the figures at times until they read the correct ones from our books.

Schermata-2022-09-06-alle-18.08.53.png




Amortization costs of ~85m this season.
I worry that we'll see Lukaku return with a similar figure which would be detrimental for our season, unless he somehow gets serious and becomes helpful, which is still not enough.
De Vrij will either stay with the same cost base or leave. Amortization wise it won't matter a lot. -1.5m or -500k.
Skriniar's will leave. -5m
Assuming Bastoni renews, he'll have a slightly reduced amortization cost. Let's say -1m.
Dalbert will finally leave. -5m.
Gagliardini will leave. -5m
Correa won't depart easily, so I guess we're stuck with his hefty cost.
Sensi may be sold. I'll imagine he gets sold so -7m, which is probably what we'll fetch from him from a team like Fiorentina, Monza or Udinese.
No idea on Lazaro, best case scenario Torino exercises the option. Either way, I'm assuming he leaves, so -4m.
Bellanova may not be redeemed but even if he does, his amortization cost would drop to slightly over 1m per year (7m transfer, 4 year deal), so let's say -2m to keep it simple.


So in this scenario, we would drop from 85m to 57m, including signing Acerbi for 4m (2 year deal).

Assuming De Vrij, Skriniar, Handanovic, Cordaz, Gagliardini, Dalbert, Sensi and Lazaro leave, with room for a Gosens sale and also assuming that Radu and Vanheusden will be loaned out again, that drops our 126m salary spending to ~100m.
Giving us a total cost of let's say 160m but missing at least 4 roster spots. Two starting central defenders, a backup GK and a backup central midfielder.
If Dzeko also leaves, that drops our total cost to 150m but we'll then need another starting forward.
I'm expecting Dumfries to be sold. If Lautaro or Barella are sold Curva Nord will have Marotta's head after losing Skriniar. A Dumfries and Gosens sale, along with Ausilio plusvalenza magic, would cover our capital gains needs. But we'd need a starting right wing back.
Costs now drop to 145m.

It pretty much becomes imperative to get rid of Joaquin Correa. And it wouldn't be prudent to renew Lukaku's deal, no matter what under-the-table deal we may have with Chelsea. That's 35m per year total cost and we have several options.


By figuring out a way to get rid of Correa (~16m to avoid capital losses) and not extending Lukaku, we go to 110m total costs, and we have room to raise it to ~170m.

Needs in this scenario:
Backup GK x2. Options are Sportiello, Sirigu, Bardi (Club trained?), Leali from Italians. Others are Soria, Vaclik, Karius (Diletta approved), Begovic... Not very relevant unless Onana becomes very shaky and we need someone reliable there. I like Sepe, Skorupski and Dragowski from potentially cheap Serie A candidates.

Right wing back. Idea Cancelo on loan once again to complete the cycle, but way too complicated now. Possible free agents are Bellerin, Coufal, Sergi Roberto, Aurier, Nelson Semedo, Adama Traore.. not a fan of most of these options. At best, we loan someone like Mouzraoui or try and poach Lazzari.

Backup left wing back. Bensebaini (long time Inter target, but would be better off as Bastoni's backup), Grimaldo or Jonas Hector as potential free agent targets that would be willing to be rotation guys at best and wouldn't cost a fortune. I'd welcome Biraghi back honestly, also fills the club trained quotas.

Center back x2. Freebies are Yerry Mina and Ndicka since Soyuncu is moving to Atletico... and our favorites. Smalling, Murillo and Juan Jesus. Unfortunately we're going to need transfers here and I expect us to go again for Milenkovic to replace Skriniar and Acerbi will end up sticking as the main guy in the middle unless we can also get Becao.

Rotational central midfielder. Reason this isn't a backup player is because after Barella, Brozovic and Hakan our next guys are a raw Asllani and an ageing Mkhitaryan. We need a 4th midfielder here to relegate the Armenian. Bosman targets could be any of Tielemans, Gundogan, Ceballos, Pereyra... watch us go for Sturaro, though.

Forwards x2. Roberto Firmino and Marcus Thuram, please. Other options aren't as good. We drop to the likes of Vietto, Mariano Diaz etc and we can't really afford to go for transfer for such players.

Backup Striker. I'd go for Andrea Belotti here who's having a very off season, so I imagine he'd be a cheap pick up for top teams that need depth. Other option is someone like Beto from Udinese but he won't be cheap.


So let's say we get Sportiello (3m gross) and Bardi (1m gross) to fill the GK spots that Handanovic and Cordaz occupied. Sportiello is good enough to start half the games so he'll be good competition for Onana as well.

I guess Bellerin would be our #1 free transfer for the RWB spot. He's fast and not overage but that's about it. And that's usually enough for this position. Assuming a 5m gross cost (3.5m net plus growth decree) would cut it,

Bensebaini would warrant a little over 2.5m net, so let's say 4m gross. Don't think Grimaldo is an option and Hector is rather old.

I'm guessing Roberto Pereyra would be our target as Gundogan would want to start somewhere and may move to Turkey, Tielemans would have other suitors and Ceballos has a roster spot at Real Madrid so it's hard to convince him without a starting spot. Pereyra makes 1m so I guess we'll almost double it. Let's say 3.5m gross.

Firmino makes 5.5m net at Liverpool. Give him 6m and a starting spot next to Lautaro and he's probably coming here. Don't see much competition for him from outside Italy. It would be between us, Juventus and perhaps Milan who will lowball him. Only X factor is Barcelona who make weird choices and Atletico Madrid is another option but not sure if they have the roster spots for him.

Marcus Thuram has interest from Bayern that cooled down and there are some PL clubs after him. We'll see if Man Utd goes for him. There's also PSG who have a transfer fetish for forwards but no room for him. Give him anything over 4.5m net (triple his current deal) and we're in the conversation.

Belotti makes less than 3m at Roma, give him a 2 year deal at 3m if Dzeko leaves and we're good, provided that we secure at least one of the two forwards mentioned above. Otherwise we'd need someone more reliable and probably a guaranteed starter. Which would cost more.


That pretty much builds the entire team minus the two starting CBs with free agents, but it's difficult to pull off. Funnily enough, all this would cost a little over 35m. Which is what we regain from letting Lukaku go back to Chelsea and not having Correa affect our books (ie loan at book value without paying his salary or sell without losses).

This takes us to 145m squad cost for the year. And we have, let's say, another 25m.

Milenkovic could cost 25m or maybe 30m. Being greedy, I could consider a 35m bid with 16m Correa going the other way... Either way, the effect of Milenkovic on the books would be at most 7m amortization cost and his salary wouldn't be higher than 6m gross. Which means 13m cost for our books.
Assuming Becao would cost slightly less, we can get to the ~170m cost (make it 180m with the possible extensions of Bastoni and Hakan), which is a significant drop from the 220m cost of this season and still, in my view, have a competitive squad that could reach the CL KO round and definitely maintain a top 4 position in Serie A, and why not even challenge for the Scudetto, unless Napoli doesn't stop their frenzy run.

The defensive setup would need to tick of course, but Milenkovic is actually more than decent at RCB and his shortcomings from a two man defense are hidden, whilst Becao is at worse an okay CB.


---------------------------------------Onana

-------------Milenkovic---------------Becao----------------Bastoni

Bellerin---------------------------------------------------------------------Dimarco

-------------------Barella------------Brozovic----------Hakan

------------------Lautaro-----------------------Firmino

Bench:
Sportiello (GK)
Bardi (GK)
Darmian (WBR, WBL, RCB)
D'Ambrosio (RCB, WBR)
Acerbi (CB)
Bensebaini (LCB, WBL)
Pereyra (MC)
Mkhitaryan (MC)
Asllani (MC)
Thuram (ST)
Belotti (ST)
roster fillers, 3 youth players that can play CB, MC and ST respectively.


Just note that if Lukaku or Correa stays, half of this isn't even possible...

So under the circumstances with our ownership situation, this is one of the best case scenarios. Not too bad on paper, but definitely a downgrade in defense but offensively, in terms of depth, it's an upgrade and perhaps a platform to build on. For the new owners I hope.

Great post. Just some remarks for me.

GK: I expect them to go for Neto, who's available on a free, to replace Handanovic. Anyone could be third GK, even keeping Cordaz for one more season.

CB: There's a big problem here as there are no good options in free agency. In the middle, if De Vrij accepts renewal offer, they will just redeem Acerbi. Else they will go for Smalling. For Skriniar replacement i can only see us getting Becao. Pavard and Scalvini are too costly. Same goes for Milenkovic as Commiso wants 30m. Demiral could be an option if Atalanta are willing to accept an option but it didn't look like it in January. Djalo could also be a target as he has one year left in his contract but it remains to be seen if Lille are willing to lower their demands. Soyuncu is already Atletico bound. Ndicka can only play as a lcb in a back 3 and he won't accept a backup role. He will only come if Bastoni is sold.

RWB: While we all hope Dumfries is sold for good money, finding his replacement won't be easy. No one in free agency is worth taking. Traore is probably the best option there but he can only run. We need a lot more from a wingback in Inzaghi's system. Bayern will probably try to keep Cancelo. Mazraoui would be great but if he becomes available there will be lots of interest. Especially from Man Utd who are also our best hope to sell Dumfries. Perhaps we could make a move for Singo but dealing with Cairo is tough. Pereyra could also be an option for the right side. While he's a midfielder he mostly plays as a wingback this season and he's doing pretty well. Lazzari better stay where he is.

LWB: Bensebaini is Dortmund bound. If Gosens is sold, we need to sign Guerreiro on a free. By far the best option available.

CM: It's probably the only position where there are many good options in free agency so there's no excuse not to sign an upgrade. Kamada, Gundogan, Aouar, Dahoud, Pereyra (if they see him as a midfielder). There's also Naby Keita but he's constantly injured. We better avoid him. Tielemans would be amazing but all the top EPL teams will be after him and even if we could afford his salary demands he would ask to be a starter. So one of Brozovic and Hakan would have to get sold. We would still need another midfielder.

Forwards: We better hope Dzeko extends else i fear they will decide to keep Lukaku for one more season just to avoid making many changes. There's no money to sign two forwards. The only good options in attack are obviously Thuram and Firmino but we need to act fast. There will be lots of competition. I could also see them making a move for Scamacca on loan. I doubt we will manage to offload Correa. He's too full of himself to accept a midtable team and as long as Inzaghi is the coach he will keep getting chances. We're stuck with him. We better stay the fuck away from Belotti. He's done.

I am not as optimistic as you when it comes to sales. We all hope Dumfries will get sold for good money but he's currently getting benched by Darmian which is hurting his chances of bringing a high offer. And our best hope is Ten Hag. Guardiola would never go for someone like Dumfries, Liverpool and Chelsea are set, Arsenal have turned White into a rb and Spurs just signed Porro. I don't see any other option in EPL. In the end i fear one of Bastoni, Barella and Lautaro will get sold. Probably Bastoni. We're in for another tough summer.
 

brehme1989

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I do believe that Neto is an option, but he's a starter now and I don't think he'd accept a bench role so soon, even if it's with double the salary.

We're screwed at center back if we're sticking with 3 at the back.

I would have put Guerreiro there but I believe he'll want a starting spot and a significant salary. Bensebaini is a long time Ausilio crush, I expect that we've already made a move.


And yes, this summer will be another bumpy ride. Watch us keep Correa and Lukaku... that's pretty much how you start the pre-season with a terrible step. The priority should be to offload both of them and ironically that's taking into account that we have no business with Lukaku following the 1st of July, yet I take him for granted.


I said that the above was a "best case scenario".

The normal scenario is to beg for our rivals to suck so that we can take the 4th spot a la Spalletti.
 

varmin

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I'm surprised that all of you missed Cuntdrado and Alex Sandro, which are free agents, and I'm pretty sure that we'll get at least one of them.
Alex Telles will also leave Man U, so he could be an option too.
 

brehme1989

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I'm surprised that all of you missed Cuntdrado and Alex Sandro, which are free agents, and I'm pretty sure that we'll get at least one of them.
Alex Telles will also leave Man U, so he could be an option too.
If we do, that'd be idiotic. Their salary is way too high and they're not a good age.
 

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Yeah Firmino is basically possible only in a scenario where we don't re-loan Lukaku. The Brazilian will demand a high salary and while we can use the growth decree, the target is to lower the salary budget for sure. And the biggest is the playing time. With Lukaku, Firmino would be again just a bench player to some extent so he demands guarantees regarding that for sure unless he gets some absurd offer from elsewhere.

About RWB, I don't think we end up having problems getting SOME replacement. Darmian has been the starter for a month now and there's been no issues. We know he can't be a starter full season but we can get someone. Mazraoui would be obviously a great add but like said, could be hard to get him, he might ask big salary. Then again growth decree helps us here aswell.

Generally, we should target mostly players from abroad since growth decree helps us so much in that regard. We have Barella, Lautaro, Brozovic, hopefully soon Bastoni too tied up to non-taxreduced contracts so we need lower ones too.
 

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There is absolutely zero chance Bayern giving away Mazraoui next summer.

He just moved there and has totally convinced and was a starter until the WC break.
 

varmin

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There is absolutely zero chance Bayern giving away Mazraoui next summer.

He just moved there and has totally convinced and was a starter until the WC break.
They got Cancelo, and if he stays Mazraoui won't be needed anymore.
 

Il Drago

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About RWB, i want to add there's also the Canadian guy who plays for Brugges. We have been linked with him many times in the past.
 

akusukako

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i am suprised that there is no mention of daichi kamada as solution for midfield considering he is a free transfer, still in low salary and been performing well in bundesliga.
 

pazza moratti

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10 years of FIF
Busy summer ahead :yao:

We already sold Pinamonti and Casadei for 40m last summer + Di Gregorio 4m and Gravillon 3m + we get that ~2m from Zaniolo.

So we still need to get that ~30-40m to get that 80m what Suning ask? We also need to pay Gosens 25m and Asllani 10m. So rest of transfers will be loans with obligation and for free. Maybe one direct buy for ~8-10m and Acerbi ~2-4m?


Sell Denzel ~35-45m -> Cuadrado free or Mazzocchi on loan.

Sell Fabbian ~10-15m

Sell Sensi to Monza ~5.5m

Gags free -> Pereyra free

Buy Acerbi ~2-4m

Renew De Vrij or get Smalling

Dumbo free -> Debast ~8-10m

Buy Gosens 25m

Buy Asllani 10m

Handa -> Cragno loan

Sales ~50,5-65,5m

Buy ~45-49m

After Denzel we still need to sell one of Lautaro or Bastoni? Replacements depents which one we sell? If we don’t get good offer for Fabbian we might need to sell Brozo? That would bring even more profits and lower wage cost, but I think Fabbian will have plenty of interest!



Lautaro ~90-100m -> Lukaku on loan + Thuram for free.

We could buy Djalo + buy Debast ~8-10m and try to get Mazraoui for loan instead of Cuadrado? If we can’t get Djalo Becao/Demiral are next in line. It seems Pavard or Scalvini are out of reach?

———————Thuram/Correa————Lukaku/Dzeko
——————Hakan/Mkhitaryan———Barella/Pereyra
Dimarco/Gosens————Brozovic/Asllani—————Mazraoui/Darmian
——Bastoni/Fontanarosa——Acerbi/De Vrij——Djalo/Debast
——————————————Onana/Cragno



If Bastoni is sold ~55-65m -> Ndicka free + one of Becao/Demiral/Djalo on loan with obligation ~18-20m + Debast ~8-10m and Lukaku on loan or Thuram for free

———————Lautaro/Correa————Thuram/Dzeko
——————Hakan/Mkhitaryan———Barella/Pereyra
Dimarco/Gosens————Brozovic/Asllani—————Cuadrado/Darmian
——Ndicka/Fontanarosa——Acerbi/De Vrij——Djalo/Debast
——————————————Onana/Cragno

I think first one would give us more guality and depth?
 

pier

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This is from Calcio e Finanza. Typically accurate but they tend to downplay some of the figures at times until they read the correct ones from our books.

Schermata-2022-09-06-alle-18.08.53.png




Amortization costs of ~85m this season.
I worry that we'll see Lukaku return with a similar figure which would be detrimental for our season, unless he somehow gets serious and becomes helpful, which is still not enough.
De Vrij will either stay with the same cost base or leave. Amortization wise it won't matter a lot. -1.5m or -500k.
Skriniar's will leave. -5m
Assuming Bastoni renews, he'll have a slightly reduced amortization cost. Let's say -1m.
Dalbert will finally leave. -5m.
Gagliardini will leave. -5m
Correa won't depart easily, so I guess we're stuck with his hefty cost.
Sensi may be sold. I'll imagine he gets sold so -7m, which is probably what we'll fetch from him from a team like Fiorentina, Monza or Udinese.
No idea on Lazaro, best case scenario Torino exercises the option. Either way, I'm assuming he leaves, so -4m.
Bellanova may not be redeemed but even if he does, his amortization cost would drop to slightly over 1m per year (7m transfer, 4 year deal), so let's say -2m to keep it simple.


So in this scenario, we would drop from 85m to 57m, including signing Acerbi for 4m (2 year deal).

Assuming De Vrij, Skriniar, Handanovic, Cordaz, Gagliardini, Dalbert, Sensi and Lazaro leave, with room for a Gosens sale and also assuming that Radu and Vanheusden will be loaned out again, that drops our 126m salary spending to ~100m.
Giving us a total cost of let's say 160m but missing at least 4 roster spots. Two starting central defenders, a backup GK and a backup central midfielder.
If Dzeko also leaves, that drops our total cost to 150m but we'll then need another starting forward.
I'm expecting Dumfries to be sold. If Lautaro or Barella are sold Curva Nord will have Marotta's head after losing Skriniar. A Dumfries and Gosens sale, along with Ausilio plusvalenza magic, would cover our capital gains needs. But we'd need a starting right wing back.
Costs now drop to 145m.

It pretty much becomes imperative to get rid of Joaquin Correa. And it wouldn't be prudent to renew Lukaku's deal, no matter what under-the-table deal we may have with Chelsea. That's 35m per year total cost and we have several options.


By figuring out a way to get rid of Correa (~16m to avoid capital losses) and not extending Lukaku, we go to 110m total costs, and we have room to raise it to ~170m.

Needs in this scenario:
Backup GK x2. Options are Sportiello, Sirigu, Bardi (Club trained?), Leali from Italians. Others are Soria, Vaclik, Karius (Diletta approved), Begovic... Not very relevant unless Onana becomes very shaky and we need someone reliable there. I like Sepe, Skorupski and Dragowski from potentially cheap Serie A candidates.

Right wing back. Idea Cancelo on loan once again to complete the cycle, but way too complicated now. Possible free agents are Bellerin, Coufal, Sergi Roberto, Aurier, Nelson Semedo, Adama Traore.. not a fan of most of these options. At best, we loan someone like Mouzraoui or try and poach Lazzari.

Backup left wing back. Bensebaini (long time Inter target, but would be better off as Bastoni's backup), Grimaldo or Jonas Hector as potential free agent targets that would be willing to be rotation guys at best and wouldn't cost a fortune. I'd welcome Biraghi back honestly, also fills the club trained quotas.

Center back x2. Freebies are Yerry Mina and Ndicka since Soyuncu is moving to Atletico... and our favorites. Smalling, Murillo and Juan Jesus. Unfortunately we're going to need transfers here and I expect us to go again for Milenkovic to replace Skriniar and Acerbi will end up sticking as the main guy in the middle unless we can also get Becao.

Rotational central midfielder. Reason this isn't a backup player is because after Barella, Brozovic and Hakan our next guys are a raw Asllani and an ageing Mkhitaryan. We need a 4th midfielder here to relegate the Armenian. Bosman targets could be any of Tielemans, Gundogan, Ceballos, Pereyra... watch us go for Sturaro, though.

Forwards x2. Roberto Firmino and Marcus Thuram, please. Other options aren't as good. We drop to the likes of Vietto, Mariano Diaz etc and we can't really afford to go for transfer for such players.

Backup Striker. I'd go for Andrea Belotti here who's having a very off season, so I imagine he'd be a cheap pick up for top teams that need depth. Other option is someone like Beto from Udinese but he won't be cheap.


So let's say we get Sportiello (3m gross) and Bardi (1m gross) to fill the GK spots that Handanovic and Cordaz occupied. Sportiello is good enough to start half the games so he'll be good competition for Onana as well.

I guess Bellerin would be our #1 free transfer for the RWB spot. He's fast and not overage but that's about it. And that's usually enough for this position. Assuming a 5m gross cost (3.5m net plus growth decree) would cut it,

Bensebaini would warrant a little over 2.5m net, so let's say 4m gross. Don't think Grimaldo is an option and Hector is rather old.

I'm guessing Roberto Pereyra would be our target as Gundogan would want to start somewhere and may move to Turkey, Tielemans would have other suitors and Ceballos has a roster spot at Real Madrid so it's hard to convince him without a starting spot. Pereyra makes 1m so I guess we'll almost double it. Let's say 3.5m gross.

Firmino makes 5.5m net at Liverpool. Give him 6m and a starting spot next to Lautaro and he's probably coming here. Don't see much competition for him from outside Italy. It would be between us, Juventus and perhaps Milan who will lowball him. Only X factor is Barcelona who make weird choices and Atletico Madrid is another option but not sure if they have the roster spots for him.

Marcus Thuram has interest from Bayern that cooled down and there are some PL clubs after him. We'll see if Man Utd goes for him. There's also PSG who have a transfer fetish for forwards but no room for him. Give him anything over 4.5m net (triple his current deal) and we're in the conversation.

Belotti makes less than 3m at Roma, give him a 2 year deal at 3m if Dzeko leaves and we're good, provided that we secure at least one of the two forwards mentioned above. Otherwise we'd need someone more reliable and probably a guaranteed starter. Which would cost more.


That pretty much builds the entire team minus the two starting CBs with free agents, but it's difficult to pull off. Funnily enough, all this would cost a little over 35m. Which is what we regain from letting Lukaku go back to Chelsea and not having Correa affect our books (ie loan at book value without paying his salary or sell without losses).

This takes us to 145m squad cost for the year. And we have, let's say, another 25m.

Milenkovic could cost 25m or maybe 30m. Being greedy, I could consider a 35m bid with 16m Correa going the other way... Either way, the effect of Milenkovic on the books would be at most 7m amortization cost and his salary wouldn't be higher than 6m gross. Which means 13m cost for our books.
Assuming Becao would cost slightly less, we can get to the ~170m cost (make it 180m with the possible extensions of Bastoni and Hakan), which is a significant drop from the 220m cost of this season and still, in my view, have a competitive squad that could reach the CL KO round and definitely maintain a top 4 position in Serie A, and why not even challenge for the Scudetto, unless Napoli doesn't stop their frenzy run.

The defensive setup would need to tick of course, but Milenkovic is actually more than decent at RCB and his shortcomings from a two man defense are hidden, whilst Becao is at worse an okay CB.


---------------------------------------Onana

-------------Milenkovic---------------Becao----------------Bastoni

Bellerin---------------------------------------------------------------------Dimarco

-------------------Barella------------Brozovic----------Hakan

------------------Lautaro-----------------------Firmino

Bench:
Sportiello (GK)
Bardi (GK)
Darmian (WBR, WBL, RCB)
D'Ambrosio (RCB, WBR)
Acerbi (CB)
Bensebaini (LCB, WBL)
Pereyra (MC)
Mkhitaryan (MC)
Asllani (MC)
Thuram (ST)
Belotti (ST)
roster fillers, 3 youth players that can play CB, MC and ST respectively.


Just note that if Lukaku or Correa stays, half of this isn't even possible...

So under the circumstances with our ownership situation, this is one of the best case scenarios. Not too bad on paper, but definitely a downgrade in defense but offensively, in terms of depth, it's an upgrade and perhaps a platform to build on. For the new owners I hope.
Nice in-depth and sensible post.

Here is another quick outlook with updated numbers and recruitment focus for the summer transfer
zAdiwry.png


GK (Backup)
GK (Backup 3rd)
LCB (Rotational)
CB (Starter)
RCB (Starter)
RWB (Rotational)
CM (Rotational)
CF (Starter)
CF (Rotational)

- Acerbi, at this state, he is most likely going to be signed. 4m fee and 2.5m wage net probably.
- Bastoni, new deal at 4m would help us spread his ammortization.
- Dimarco, recently joined RocNation agency, an improved new deal is expected.
- Correa, this is a challenging one. 16.3m is the required to avoid capital loss, which is quite impossible to pull for now. Even if we offer him at half price, many club might think twice to sign him. Sending him on loan with option to buy while still paying part of his wage might the only option and this can help us reduce his annual cost a bit although i'm not surprise if we still unable to offload him.

With a limited transfer budget, it might not be possible to sign nine players for the needed position. So, there's possibility to extend de Vrij, D'ambrosio and Dzeko.
Kw9oOqK.png


GK (Backup) - A goalie with wage net ~1m, preferably on free transfer
GK (Backup 3rd) - Veteran GK that also helps the registration requirement
LCB (Rotational) - Left footed center back, Ndicka might fits the bill, however, given the competition, the chance to sign is quite low.
CB (Starter) - If de Vrij not extended, it most likely sign defender with 3m wage net
RCB (Starter) - If there is really a transfer budget available, a 20m allocated for this position might suffice.
RWB (Rotational) - Will depends on Dumfries situation and Darmian position.
CM (Rotational) - Gag successor. Perreyra rumor is ok here. Personally i'd prefer for Kamada as he also useful upfront but he'd take the nonEU quota, besides there's no news we are linking to him. So the cheap option is utilize Fabbian, is he ready? we might see in preseason.
CF (Starter) 6m wage reserved if a striker coming from abroad.
CF (Rotational) Anyone coming is an upgrade to Correa position here.

RYjBw43.png
 
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