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Adriano@10

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Fed is probably hiking by 25bps, so people will whine either way.

Will be a hectic day at the office and I have to be on-call till Powell says good night.
Yeah most likely is a 25bps hike but so much uncertainty out there and so many idiots talking out of their asses trying to move fed to a pivot..
 

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Man fucking cluster fuck if they cut rates cause of a couple of shitty run banks and VCs not knowing what risk mgm means.

Few thoughts on CS though now that most of the info is out there. First of i think the deal with the UBS was pretty much the only way to go as a solution needed to be found fast and i think there was pressure from the US and the EU to not only bail out the swiss retail Bank but bail out all of CS as CS was amongst the (10-15) Financial institutions considered TBTF for International markets. So i guess a solution had to be found where the international business of CS can be carried on only institution in switzerland that would be able to do it and do it fast is UBS. I also assume that this is the reason UBS got such a good price and so many concessions when it comes to downside protection.
Also let me empathise again that with out the SVB debacle CS would not have needed to be saved. CS was being closely monitored by finma and snb since october, but while outflows have not stopped, they we re much lower than in october and were manageable until SVB happened and fear spread. Withdrawals obviously spiked dramatically and that was basically the nail i the coffin of CS. Of course communication of both CS and PIF did not help.
All this makes it even weirder to now see US investors shit on finma and the swiss regulators.. yes i was surprised when i saw cocos were 0 out, but i made one call and friend told me wtf your on about it s in the prospectus and on CS website, so i go and double check and there it is written in plain fucken english, so who ever complains about losses from the AT1s well he did not fucken read what he invested in.

Moving on what baffles me is that we were talking for 15 years now about ring fencing our banks so that when a tbtf bank fails we can just cut/sell off all the non retail facing non CH business and the tbtf swiss retail arm would carry on. Now despite changing regulations and forcing banks to make contingency plans for this we did not even consider doing this. Which seems extremely weird to me, and the only explanation for me is that as i said earlier the us and the EU pressured us into not only saving the swiss retail part of CS, and our politicians did not wanna sell these parts of to foreign entities or there were 0 bids. But it is the only somewhat logical explanation why regulation that has been pushed on banks for the last 15 years now does not get used even though it was drafted exactly for this. The many concessions of the snb towards teh UBS and the low price they got make me think this is indeed the case cause UBS obviously got a massive bargain and many of the risks sit with the SNB/swiss tax payers.

Now this brings me to what worries me the most in this whole banking shitshow that we are seeing right now and that is a lack of bids. I was expecting buyers to come in a lot faster and a lot hotter on both svb and CS but pretty much nothing thus far. Like CS got sold at a bargain price with huuge guarantees. still no bids for SVB other than the UK arm which was sold for 1 pound....
Now this might be the few big boys with solid BS waiting for absolute bargain prices knowing that the fed will step in to avoid a disaster or this might be the banks them selfes seeing the problem clearer and knowing this is a big one.

ANyways imho not the moment to blindly buy bank stocks... yes initial reaction was positive but depending on what the fed says shit may break loos again later today.

I always struggle on how to take on banks, their balance sheets dont make sense to me :lol:

also they seem to be like a bet on the economy, and they don't even do that well. Economy good banks are ok, economy bad you are holding a 10 story building in an epicenter earthquake
 

brehme1989

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I always struggle on how to take on banks, their balance sheets dont make sense to me :lol:

also they seem to be like a bet on the economy, and they don't even do that well. Economy good banks are ok, economy bad you are holding a 10 story building in an epicenter earthquake
Banks are protected by laws, crony judicial systems and whatnot.
The banks can rarely lose in this environment. They can only fuck up hard. And some have.
 

Adriano@10

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I always struggle on how to take on banks, their balance sheets dont make sense to me :lol:

also they seem to be like a bet on the economy, and they don't even do that well. Economy good banks are ok, economy bad you are holding a 10 story building in an epicenter earthquake
HAHAH kind of right....
Yeah man banks BS are kind of though and they are seldom a really great investment...My best investments in banks came right after the crisis where my bet was basically that they d get bailed out and despite being way to early the first time i still managed to make a good profit off of it. Like unless you buy a distressed bank where you are sure they ll make it they are seldom great investments and it depends a lot more on the quality of mgm than in a lot of other sectors. CS managed to get through the GFC but since then mgm has been one disaster after the other and now fucken svb was enough to take em out.
Anyways there one could still make some decent money off of the big guys in recent years.
Also i d argue that in most Dividend pofos you almost have to hold on or two Banks.

BTW as i speculated apparently SNB and swiss government got pressured to go for that UBS takeover solution by the US, at least thats what news outlets are reporting now.

Edit: like brehme pointed out Banking regulation is also kind of important when investing in these things and while a bail out can save you it also can fuck you over if your short. In normal times the assurance of SNB to the CS would have been more than enough to kill any short out there.
 

brehme1989

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Is there an I don't like Jerome Powell club I could join?
 

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Is there an I don't like Jerome Powell club I could join?
Me and adriano have one 3 years running

Also yellen now saying not all deposits insured lol. Gg the rich vest bros got bailed out rest got rug pulled.
 

brehme1989

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Me and adriano have one 3 years running

Also yellen now saying not all deposits insured lol. Gg the rich vest bros got bailed out rest got rug pulled.
yeah funny how all eyes were on FOMC yet it was Yellen who kinda crashed the market :lol:
 

brehme1989

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Swiss National Banker, also not a big fan.
 

Adriano@10

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Hindemburg with a short piece on SQ

Business hippy jack finally getting what he deserves
 

Adriano@10

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Baba gonna spilt into 6 different businesses... the ccp strikes again..
If only these fucks could give the zhangs the jack ma treatment we d have new owners by now
 

brehme1989

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Baba gonna spilt into 6 different businesses... the ccp strikes again..
If only these fucks could give the zhangs the jack ma treatment we d have new owners by now

It was a legitimate business decishahahahah
 

brehme1989

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Ok, Affirm is not a $40 stock, more like a $16 stock now :lol:

Apple terrorizing the field!
 

Adriano@10

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Ok, Affirm is not a $40 stock, more like a $16 stock now :lol:

Apple terrorizing the field!
Why would you hold a BNPL when you know we re heading for a recession...
Also why are you holdig one of the more shitty ones in affirm?
 

brehme1989

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Why would you hold a BNPL when you know we re heading for a recession...
Also why are you holdig one of the more shitty ones in affirm?
Lol I'm not holding, I sold it and wanted to buy at under $10 but then kinda decided against it as it was too volatile. Did it once successfully but it cannot always work, especially in this environment.

From relevant fields, I'm only stuck with [very] bad Paypal and Block/Square positions. And @Pimpin favorite StoneCo.
 

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Lol I'm not holding, I sold it and wanted to buy at under $10 but then kinda decided against it as it was too volatile. Did it once successfully but it cannot always work, especially in this environment.

From relevant fields, I'm only stuck with [very] bad Paypal and Block/Square positions. And @Pimpin favorite StoneCo.

what is going on with stoneco, haven't had time to even peep how they did last quarter :lol:

how are your portfolios holding on broskis
 

brehme1989

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what is going on with stoneco, haven't had time to even peep how they did last quarter :lol:

Even shittier than last time we spoke about it
 

brehme1989

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Meanwhile, the CFTC vs Binance affair is delightful.
Let's hope they burst them.

Then they need to go for the big kahuha, Tether.
 

Adriano@10

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what is going on with stoneco, haven't had time to even peep how they did last quarter :lol:

how are your portfolios holding on broskis
Pretty decent for how worried i am about markets.. Like 3-4% ahead of the SP ytd....
Despite me holding the tesla short to long and almost eliminating all my gains on that. Stoneco man what can i say honestly no idea what to do with it, but also no time to do a deep dove atm so i guess i m just gonna hold and pray atm. My oil bets have also cooled off a lot and my god damn copper bet has to remind me why the fuck i hate investing in juniors, results as in drill results have been great project is moving on smoothly stock price dropped like 75%. I know i know recession fears and suppressed copper price but even at a shittiest of shit copper prices the deposit should bring you 4$ per share take a 50% cut that 2$/share share trades at 80c....
Been saved by my german bets LS invest/ Centrontec and porsche holdings...
Anyways i moved substantial amounts into money market funds currently returning around 4.3% annualised, as i m not sure how much longer till the situation is clearer and now they are paying a fair rate i d say. Also nothing big on the radar atm, still not sure about UBS neither am i sure if I should double down on the germans, another one i like is Dufn but again with a looming recession on the horizone did not have the balls yet to pull the trigger.
Meanwhile, the CFTC vs Binance affair is delightful.
Let's hope they burst them.

Then they need to go for the big kahuha, Tether.
Man Binance is toast they have CZs text messages... They basically admit to money laundering and front running in these texts, they simply cannot let binance get away with it.

Tether is still a big fucken mistery one would have guessed that the FEDS will have to go hard on Tether after the FTX scandal but nothing so far...


EDIT: Almost forgot god damn would i hate it if fucken amazon bails out the fucken APES, yes ost of em would still walk away with a loss but only a minimal one and they d rub it in everybodys faces. I know it would kid of make sense for amazon to own some cinemas but all of fucken AMC gimme a break. Just buy their crown jewels at a fair price and let the rest of that company rott away with the apes.

EDIT2: Lol just realized apple entred the BNPL game yesterday... so maybe m dead wrong brehme
 
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brehme1989

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My bet with Affirm was mostly hoping for a buyout at a high enough price.

Not a bet I'm willing to make now.
 

Adriano@10

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Fair point i guess with apple entering that market directly chances of a takeover have been decreased...

BTW anybody on here familiar with the turkish market? The way erdogan has fucked that economy there could be more then a couple bargains if he looses the election in may. Especially with kilicdaroglu(SP?) talking about making turkey more friendly to foregin investors again also him being an economist helps a lot.
 
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