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Adriano@10

Allenatore
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And the SNB gave CS 50 bio last night.... Not as a rescue package but to shore up liquidity.....
WHat have i told you guys snb cannot afford CS to go bust, especially not unorderly.
 
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brehme1989

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And the SNB gave CS 50 bio last night.... Not as a rescue package but to shore up liquidity.....
WHat have i told you guys snb cannot afford CS to go bust, especially not unorderly.
Rumours of a UBS takeover have been wild since the morning.
Any news from the front?
 
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Adriano@10

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Rumours of a UBS takeover have been wild since the morning.
Any news from the front?
Those rumoura have calmed down a lot in switzerland.... ..
Like the voicea were louder 1 week ago.
Also ubs categorically denied beeing intrested
Also imho the only business really interesting to UBS is CS s swiss retail business and i d guess that Regulators are not gonna let UBS become even bigger there, and I dont really see what UBS would want to do with CS IB and WM cause they are quite strong there too and a lot of that money has already left CS.
Side note 11 us banks puttting 30 bio of uninsured deposits into first republican... amongst them boa jpm Gs and citi
 
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Adriano@10

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Listening to some of the congress questioning Yellen man these fucks are hell bent on making the fed guarantee all deposits with no limit...
Lets creat some more morale hazard in this fucken industry bunch of retards
 
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#NotForMe

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Trying to catch up a bit on this ...
I think I am mostly on board with @Adriano@10 and @brehme1989

Yea, it is fucked up; there is nothing "systemic risk" about SVB and CS, except for bond market thing (and technically they should have adverse measure in place, stress test for political risk, the ripple effects etc.) ; but the true cause of the insolvent, deposit flight, is due to a very diversifiable source. (Most of the depositors are start ups/tech) Also as mentioned before a poor A-L duration matching management. CS is even more fucked up, the more I read about it.

Like how could regulations make it worse, Dodd-Frank Act was actually rolled back, I am pro-regulation. Especially in this kinda environment. Crazy libertarians always think the market is efficient, and like if there is no regulators then people will choose wisely where to deposit their money, and make sure the bank is responsible and all that shit. Like really, are we all supposed to be expert in all kinds shit like airline safety, medical knowledge to choose which doctor or airline etc. If so I would be flying my plane and prescribed my own drugs.

And fuck this bailout shit, privatized profit and socialize lost at its finest, even for the business depositors I mean it is poor business management for them too.

Definitely nothing like the 08 though.

I think @Adriano@10 captures most of it anyway, some of my stuffs are kinda repeating but man I share the anger.
 

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Trying to catch up a bit on this ...
I think I am mostly on board with @Adriano@10 and @brehme1989

Yea, it is fucked up; there is nothing "systemic risk" about SVB and CS, except for bond market thing (and technically they should have adverse measure in place, stress test for political risk, the ripple effects etc.) ; but the true cause of the insolvent, deposit flight, is due to a very diversifiable source. (Most of the depositors are start ups/tech) Also as mentioned before a poor A-L duration matching management. CS is even more fucked up, the more I read about it.

Like how could regulations make it worse, Dodd-Frank Act was actually rolled back, I am pro-regulation. Especially in this kinda environment. Crazy libertarians always think the market is efficient, and like if there is no regulators then people will choose wisely where to deposit their money, and make sure the bank is responsible and all that shit. Like really, are we all supposed to be expert in all kinds shit like airline safety, medical knowledge to choose which doctor or airline etc. If so I would be flying my plane and prescribed my own drugs.

And fuck this bailout shit, privatized profit and socialize lost at its finest, even for the business depositors I mean it is poor business management for them too.

Definitely nothing like the 08 though.

I think @Adriano@10 captures most of it anyway, some of my stuffs are kinda repeating but man I share the anger.
It's not like SVB was exempt from stress testing. Based on the assets they have, their bank gets stressed tested once every two years - even with the Dodd Frank rollbacks. Are we even sure another stress test would have caught this? It clearly didn't catch it last time they were stressed tested.

I'm fine with stress testing them more. Do it twice a year. Unless the actual regulation and supervision improves, nothing will change.
 

Adriano@10

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It's not like SVB was exempt from stress testing. Based on the assets they have, their bank gets stressed tested once every two years - even with the Dodd Frank rollbacks. Are we even sure another stress test would have caught this? It clearly didn't catch it last time they were stressed tested.

I'm fine with stress testing them more. Do it twice a year. Unless the actual regulation and supervision improves, nothing will change.
Yes and no, they clearly fell under the 250 bio treshold so they were exempt from many of the harsher dodd frank regulations.... One could argue that the fed could have still intervened but we all know thats not how regulators work....
If the stress tests would have been as rigorous as they are at the big banks yes yes they would have catched it... Imagine thinking a stresstest once every two years is enough when the current situation unfolded in like 4 months.. Also last time they were stress tested Rates where close to 0 and they did have not jet lunched into the 10 year mbs to gain another 0.4BPS of returns...
Ask your selfe why creditsuiss could keep on moving forward despit being in crisis mode for over 2 years now and having hugh capital flight since last september...
Cause they were properly regulated when it comes to their Reserves... Even now the SNB injecting liquidity was more of a try to reinstall trust than a immediat need for liquidity...
I wonder if people who write this understand banking? Like what the fuck did he expect yellen to say? She cannot say we have a problem with X and y bank unless the fdic has already stepped in cause the moment she says this there s a fucken bank run and the Bank is toast... But sure go ahead and blame her for not telling the truth...
Senators who then put her on the hot seat and insisting that she should guarantee all deposits across all banks are just as fucken dumb... Do you really wanna destroy the USD with one fucken big bankrun?

Btw european regulators are allegedly already pissed at their US counter parts for bailing out everybody and not only the insured deposits.. which is the framework that they originally agreed upon.

Also the more i look into it the more this looks like a huge fuckup I mean SVB already invested 2 bio into the vcs that bank with em and were in the process of raising another 2 of course with the caveat that the startups who get the money fully bank with SVB it s a huge circlejerk. Vcs should have known better every startup that was bigger than a 5 people operation should have known better, SVB executives should have known better. But those perks from SVB were just too sweet for founders and for svb the fees were to good so who the fuck cares about risk.........

Again thing pissing me off most is VCs who created this whole shit show are still crying for a bank run shut the fuck up you idiots. Also for some historical context in the last 20 years i think 500 banks went belly up and the lowest recovery rate was 30%...
Now thats not great but most VCs and most startups would have survived that haircut and again that is the largest in the last 20 years.
Matter of fact there are plenty of stories where founder went out on the weekend to raise new money before the situation was clear and they managed to find quite some funding. But lets try to bring down our banking system cause some VCs are fucken crybabies.

Had they taken that 20% or 10% haircut without bitching we would be so much better of now it s either the fed only saves the elites or the fed has to guarantee all the deposits across the US.

To credit suisse looks like the UBS will take over after all atleast parts of CS, I guess regulators rather have the assets in the hands of another swiss bank and they care less about making UBS even more of a TBTF.. Funny thing is the swiss retail unit is Valued at 15bio meanwhile market cap is 7 or 8bio.. Talk about having a disastrous brand.

Still want to point out that this is nothing compared to 08 lets not forget that 100s of banks faild in 08 and 09 and like 50 or so went bust before Bear stearns.
ATM this is not systemcritical but bill ackman, Elon musk, a couple of idiotic VCs and a couple of idiotic Politicians are sure thrying their best to make it so.
 
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brehme1989

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@Adriano@10
Apparently my guys and the media were right on the UBS - CS deal.
A (cheap) offer was extended just now.
 
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Adriano@10

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@Adriano@10
Apparently my guys and the media were right on the UBS - CS deal.
A (cheap) offer was extended just now.
Yes like i said in my last post things changed quite fast and it looks like the SNB wants the UBS to take the CS as in i guess they dont want retail banking arm of CS to fall to a foreign entity and within Switzerland only UBS can take up CS..
Theres still some voces in Switzerland saying the market watch dog wont lt it through but I guess the Finma and the SNB would just override it as we re in too delicate of a situation...

Also offer was a huge lowball and UBS is asking for a ^bio backstop from the snb in case shit goes south.
We should know by the end of the day though atleast that is what they were saying yesterday.
 
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brehme1989

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2bn after all...

European banks about to take a dive.

Probably US banks as well. Time to buy or pray?
 
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Pimpin

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Its only when thr tide goes that you realise who has been swimming naked.

I dunno how tf u calm markets with bullshit lik3 this if anything jm terrified now
 
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brehme1989

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Its only when thr tide goes that you realise who has been swimming naked.

I dunno how tf u calm markets with bullshit lik3 this if anything jm terrified now

Watch the Fed hike the rate :lol:


Not sure if this is a Bear Sterns moment or just a random thing that just had to happen...
 

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Watch the Fed hike the rate :lol:


Not sure if this is a Bear Sterns moment or just a random thing that just had to happen...
Hike rates and insert 1 trillion in liquidity.

I am seeing a trainwreck in real time.
 
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brehme1989

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same weekend 10 years ago something similar happened in Cyprus, crazy
 
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Adriano@10

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I mean it s at least not a liquidity crisis...
I really wonder wtf they are thinking with the treatment of the COCOs and how that affects the whole At1 markets.
How the fuck do you simply wipe out cocos before you wipe out equity seems fucken derranged

EDIT: Disregard that post looked at the prospectus of said cocos all is well
 
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Another bailout in everything but name, if fdic insures all deposits we have socialism on banks
 

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Inflation "unexpectedly" up in the UK, biggest month over month rise, but yes cut rates pls my venture capital and my retarded bank can't make money like this.
 

Adriano@10

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Man fucking cluster fuck if they cut rates cause of a couple of shitty run banks and VCs not knowing what risk mgm means.

Few thoughts on CS though now that most of the info is out there. First of i think the deal with the UBS was pretty much the only way to go as a solution needed to be found fast and i think there was pressure from the US and the EU to not only bail out the swiss retail Bank but bail out all of CS as CS was amongst the (10-15) Financial institutions considered TBTF for International markets. So i guess a solution had to be found where the international business of CS can be carried on only institution in switzerland that would be able to do it and do it fast is UBS. I also assume that this is the reason UBS got such a good price and so many concessions when it comes to downside protection.
Also let me empathise again that with out the SVB debacle CS would not have needed to be saved. CS was being closely monitored by finma and snb since october, but while outflows have not stopped, they we re much lower than in october and were manageable until SVB happened and fear spread. Withdrawals obviously spiked dramatically and that was basically the nail i the coffin of CS. Of course communication of both CS and PIF did not help.
All this makes it even weirder to now see US investors shit on finma and the swiss regulators.. yes i was surprised when i saw cocos were 0 out, but i made one call and friend told me wtf your on about it s in the prospectus and on CS website, so i go and double check and there it is written in plain fucken english, so who ever complains about losses from the AT1s well he did not fucken read what he invested in.

Moving on what baffles me is that we were talking for 15 years now about ring fencing our banks so that when a tbtf bank fails we can just cut/sell off all the non retail facing non CH business and the tbtf swiss retail arm would carry on. Now despite changing regulations and forcing banks to make contingency plans for this we did not even consider doing this. Which seems extremely weird to me, and the only explanation for me is that as i said earlier the us and the EU pressured us into not only saving the swiss retail part of CS, and our politicians did not wanna sell these parts of to foreign entities or there were 0 bids. But it is the only somewhat logical explanation why regulation that has been pushed on banks for the last 15 years now does not get used even though it was drafted exactly for this. The many concessions of the snb towards teh UBS and the low price they got make me think this is indeed the case cause UBS obviously got a massive bargain and many of the risks sit with the SNB/swiss tax payers.

Now this brings me to what worries me the most in this whole banking shitshow that we are seeing right now and that is a lack of bids. I was expecting buyers to come in a lot faster and a lot hotter on both svb and CS but pretty much nothing thus far. Like CS got sold at a bargain price with huuge guarantees. still no bids for SVB other than the UK arm which was sold for 1 pound....
Now this might be the few big boys with solid BS waiting for absolute bargain prices knowing that the fed will step in to avoid a disaster or this might be the banks them selfes seeing the problem clearer and knowing this is a big one.

ANyways imho not the moment to blindly buy bank stocks... yes initial reaction was positive but depending on what the fed says shit may break loos again later today.
 

brehme1989

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Fed is probably hiking by 25bps, so people will whine either way.

Will be a hectic day at the office and I have to be on-call till Powell says good night.
 
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